S/O Timeshares Thread - The Next Big Recession

[OneOftheB's]

It's funny, DH and our financial planner were just discussing this last week. We have a piece of land that we intended to build a retirement home on, but no longer have that plan for retirement. We purchased at the very bottom of the housing market, and the market on raw land in the area has more than doubled in 6 years. We decided to put the land on the market, because we all feel like the housing market/land market in our area is going to decrease dramatically in the next 2-3 years. Will that cause another recession? IDK, but I'd rather buy low and sell high if the asset is no longer a long term investment.

 

[cruiser21]

So you are assuming that if people vacation, they are living over their means?

I find it interesting that someone’s first posts are about the economy which is difficult to discuss without getting political. As we all know isn’t allowed on the disboards. I’m wondering the motivation. Most people come to these boards for advice on how to spend money on Disney.

 

[DLgal]

Recessions mean we vacation more, due to great travel deals.

We aren't homeowners, have stable rent for the next 3 years, at least, and have a guaranteed income as long as my husband remains active duty military. A recession won't negatively impact us at all, except our investments, but we still have 25+ years until retirement, so I don't worry about it at all. Since the last recession, we have made major money in earnings. So, we may lose some of those earnings, but we will make them back eventually. Plus, all that money is "fun money" for the future, as we will have a pension as well as whatever is left of social security.

 

[tvguy]

I totally agree. One thing to keep in mind is that because of the tax cuts that were passed last year, we won't have much ammunition left when the recession does come. That will be a problem.

I agree with your originial statement I think at the very least a "down turn" is coming within 18 months.

I disagree about the 2017 tax reform bill. I think that will greatly soften the blow for employers, so there will be less pressure to cut staffing. Now, this is assuming the downturn comes before the end of 2025 when many of the tax cuts expire.

As for me. I'm less than 2 years from retirement. A downturn certainly could lower the cost of some items I might be interested in like vacations, and raise interest rates, so safe investments like CD's would earn me more money. Otherwise, I don't see how it would impact me.

 

[MrMiyagi]

I find it interesting that someone’s first posts are about the economy which is difficult to discuss without getting political. As we all know isn’t allowed on the disboards. I’m wondering the motivation. Most people come to these boards for advice on how to spend money on Disney.

It's actually really easy to discuss without getting political. You're actually the first person to mention politics in the thread. Trying to stir the pot?

 

[cruiser21]

It's actually really easy to discuss without getting political. You're actually the first person to mention politics in the thread. Trying to stir the pot?

You obviously haven't been on the disboards very long LOL. It is kind of the elephant in the room.

I'm sorry I don't share your Debby Downer forecast.

My husband's company just had the best quarter ever in its 70 plus years on the planet. He's in a industry that would be greatly effected by a downturn. He personally wouldn't , but the industry as a whole would.

He's also gotten tax cut bonuses, profit sharing bonuses and he's getting a raise with increased 401k contributions. All of this in the last 8 months.

I've been unhappy with my job for the last 2 years. I sent out my resume within 2 hours a I had a call for an interview and 24 hours later I was hired.

My 401k is up 20%

We get a substantial tax cut this year.

I've got my second and third vacations planned for the year.

I have 2 kids going to college in the next five years. I wish college were cheaper, but cant have everything. I'm hoping there will be alternatives to college with more trade schools. I think college is a waste of money for some kids.

I've had 6 nieces and nephews graduate within the last 2 years. All have jobs and are supporting themselves. No they did not get worthless liberal arts degrees.

Can I predict the future, the next catastrophe, terrorist attack.....no. I always plan for the worst and hope for the best, but I am feeling a lot more positive about my kids future then I have in the past.

 

[cvjw]

We plan to buy more stocks when/if they go on sale in another recession, just like we did in 2008/2009. That plan paid off big time in the last recession

 

[dclpluto]

Wdw is a very reasonable vacation you just have to know how to do it. Many people don’t know how. The last year I went 4 times to wdw. June, September, December, and may. All of them for 7 nights in a 1 bedroom at wdw. Get a annual pass be a dvc member. I won’t be back to wdw for probably a year and a half. Last time it was 2 and a half year break. This time it won’t be as long with all the new things coming. Many people complain about how expensive the park tickets are and I agree 100 percent they are too expensive. But not expensive if you get a annual pass lot more bang for your buck.

 

[MrMiyagi]

Many people complain about how expensive the park tickets are and I agree 100 percent they are too expensive. But not expensive if you get a annual pass lot more bang for your buck.

True but most people aren't going to WDW multiple times per year. I like to go once (if that) and maybe do something else. Variety is the spice of life.

 

[dclpluto]

True but most people aren't going to WDW multiple times per year. I like to go once (if that) and maybe do something else. Variety is the spice of life.

I do other things during that time I go on a Disney cruise at least once a year. Twice a year when I’m not going to wdw. Yes if you go once a year wdw is expensive because you are going to buy them expensive park tickets.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

He's also gotten tax cut bonuses, profit sharing bonuses and he's getting a raise with increased 401k contributions. All of this in the last 8 months.

I've been unhappy with my job for the last 2 years. I sent out my resume within 2 hours a I had a call for an interview and 24 hours later I was hired.

My 401k is up 20%

We get a substantial tax cut this year.

I really like that your DH's company passed on their tax cut to employees via a bonus. My DH's company didn't do that at all. In addition his unreimbursed mileage and employee expenses are no longer a tax write off (this is a pretty large chunk of money too). And with 2 kids in college, we don't get the child tax credit because it expires at 18 now. Because of these changes, we will be taking a pretty huge tax hit next April due to the new tax laws. We've already met with our accountant to develop a plan to deal with it. But on the plus side, all our investments are doing really well!

 

[tvguy]

I really like that your DH's company passed on their tax cut to employees via a bonus. My DH's company didn't do that at all. In addition his unreimbursed mileage and employee expenses are no longer a tax write off (this is a pretty large chunk of money too). And with 2 kids in college, we don't get the child tax credit because it expires at 18 now. Because of these changes, we will be taking a pretty huge tax hit next April due to the new tax laws. We've already met with our accountant to develop a plan to deal with it. But on the plus side, all our investments are doing really well!

Has your husband had a conversation with his boss about getting those no longer deductible expenses reimbursed?

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

Has your husband had a conversation with his boss about getting those no longer deductible expenses reimbursed?

Yep, all the sales reps have spoken to management. They are a giant Fortune 500 company, and they will not budge.

 

[Colleen27]

I do not know when the next recession will occur, and I am by know means an Economist or anything like that, but I do believe the next recession with be absolutely brutal (i.e. great depression level). This is primarily based on my own anecdotal experience with people spending like CRAZY (in my opinion), as the economy has gotten arguably much stronger over the past year or so.

Also, the cost of housing, ect. has gotten out of control, and most people have simply not been saving.

I agree. The fact that we're still in "recession" mode by a lot of measures - ongoing federal policies usually associated with stimulus efforts, lingering near-record-low interest rates, wages that have yet to fully recover from the last recession, flat wage growth despite low unemployment, continuing workforce reductions at many companies, housing market starting to feel "bubbly" again in the pace of price increases, etc. - will make the next one REALLY bad simply because this "good" economy hasn't brought the gains that would typically be expected nor has it triggered the rolling back of govt. stimulus efforts.

As far as personal impact, there is no room for further reductions in staffing levels where I work so unless our parent company decides to fold the paper entirely, I'm probably okay. My husband, on the other hand, is already starting to worry. He moved into industrial maintenance after the last recession because it was more stable than residential when the housing market was in shambles, but he's hearing rumblings at work of tariff-related cutbacks and while he shouldn't be immediately affected (he oversees maintenance at three sites), it is enough to make him nervous. Mostly he worries about his ability to find a new position if things go wrong. His skillset has always saved him/us in the past, but at almost-50 he worries he's too old to be an attractive applicant for the physical work he does.

But as far as Disney goes... in the past, we've gone there more often during recessions, when the deals were good, than we do now. If we have to pay full price or something close to it, there are too many other destinations that turn our heads. So a recession might prompt a new "Disney phase" for us (or not - our youngest is 10, so I doubt it would be as much fun as the "great recession" trips we took when she was small).

 

[Colleen27]

I really like that your DH's company passed on their tax cut to employees via a bonus. My DH's company didn't do that at all. In addition his unreimbursed mileage and employee expenses are no longer a tax write off (this is a pretty large chunk of money too). And with 2 kids in college, we don't get the child tax credit because it expires at 18 now. Because of these changes, we will be taking a pretty huge tax hit next April due to the new tax laws. We've already met with our accountant to develop a plan to deal with it. But on the plus side, all our investments are doing really well!

I love hearing that at least some companies did that. Neither my nor DH's employer did, and our personal benefit from the adjusted tax tables wasn't enough to offset the other changes (BTW, that child tax credit expires at *16* - two of my three are no longer eligible, though they are full time students living at home). Our 401ks are doing well, but with 20 years to go until retirement that's so abstract as to be meaningless.

But the bigger problem with the tax cuts is that they added massively to the federal deficit. It isn't that the cuts themselves were bad; it is that the fact that we borrowed to pay for them will constrain future discussions about economic stimulus spending in the next recession. Historically, the deficit has had a cycle of its own, growing when the economy was weak and shrinking when the economy was strong. The tax cuts disrupted that and put our govt. at risk of not being able to invest in infrastructure, expand safety net programs, or otherwise provide a counter-influence when the economy slows down.

 

[tvguy]

Yep, all the sales reps have spoken to management. They are a giant Fortune 500 company, and they will not budge.

That's unfortunate. I was with my last "employer" 16 years, we had 6 owners in that time. For a year we were owned by an individual that was very very very tight with money, but he refused to allow his employees not to be reimbursed for business expenses.....as he put it "I will not finance my company on the backs of my employees"

 

[LSUmiss]

Recessions mean we vacation more, due to great travel deals.

We aren't homeowners, have stable rent for the next 3 years, at least, and have a guaranteed income as long as my husband remains active duty military. A recession won't negatively impact us at all, except our investments, but we still have 25+ years until retirement, so I don't worry about it at all. Since the last recession, we have made major money in earnings. So, we may lose some of those earnings, but we will make them back eventually. Plus, all that money is "fun money" for the future, as we will have a pension as well as whatever is left of social security.

I agree on vacation. In 2008 & 2009 we got some of the best deals WDW has ever offered in recent times.

 

[cruiser21]

I really like that your DH's company passed on their tax cut to employees via a bonus. My DH's company didn't do that at all. In addition his unreimbursed mileage and employee expenses are no longer a tax write off (this is a pretty large chunk of money too). And with 2 kids in college, we don't get the child tax credit because it expires at 18 now. Because of these changes, we will be taking a pretty huge tax hit next April due to the new tax laws. We've already met with our accountant to develop a plan to deal with it. But on the plus side, all our investments are doing really well!

I won't be able to write off my miles either. We still come out ahead. I think they could have given a higher percentage tax cut and kept the deductions in place....but what to I do know. It's impossible to get congress to agree on anything.

 

[cruiser21]

I love hearing that at least some companies did that. Neither my nor DH's employer did, and our personal benefit from the adjusted tax tables wasn't enough to offset the other changes (BTW, that child tax credit expires at *16* - two of my three are no longer eligible, though they are full time students living at home). Our 401ks are doing well, but with 20 years to go until retirement that's so abstract as to be meaningless.

But the bigger problem with the tax cuts is that they added massively to the federal deficit. It isn't that the cuts themselves were bad; it is that the fact that we borrowed to pay for them will constrain future discussions about economic stimulus spending in the next recession. Historically, the deficit has had a cycle of its own, growing when the economy was weak and shrinking when the economy was strong. The tax cuts disrupted that and put our govt. at risk of not being able to invest in infrastructure, expand safety net programs, or otherwise provide a counter-influence when the economy slows down.

Corporate taxes only make up 7% of total revenue. As far as individual tax cuts. Some people are paying less, some more. More people are working. I don't see the tax cuts doing anything, but increasing revenue. The economy would not be as strong as it is without the tax cuts. Rolling back a lot of the regulations has helped too.

 

[cruiser21]

I agree on vacation. In 2008 & 2009 we got some of the best deals WDW has ever offered in recent times.

Those deals were great. On the downside half the homes in our neighborhood were in foreclosure. With two kids entering the job market soon. I would rather not be able to afford WDW then have them living in my basement.