S/O Timeshares Thread - The Next Big Recession

[Gumbo4x4]

I agree on vacation. In 2008 & 2009 we got some of the best deals WDW has ever offered in recent times.

Our contracts carried us through ‘08 & ‘09 for record years.

‘10 & ‘11 absolutely blew.

 

[tvguy]

I love hearing that at least some companies did that. Neither my nor DH's employer did, and our personal benefit from the adjusted tax tables wasn't enough to offset the other changes (BTW, that child tax credit expires at *16* - two of my three are no longer eligible, though they are full time students living at home). Our 401ks are doing well, but with 20 years to go until retirement that's so abstract as to be meaningless.

But the bigger problem with the tax cuts is that they added massively to the federal deficit. It isn't that the cuts themselves were bad; it is that the fact that we borrowed to pay for them will constrain future discussions about economic stimulus spending in the next recession. Historically, the deficit has had a cycle of its own, growing when the economy was weak and shrinking when the economy was strong. The tax cuts disrupted that and put our govt. at risk of not being able to invest in infrastructure, expand safety net programs, or otherwise provide a counter-influence when the economy slows down.

My company did give everyone a $500 bonus in December, my wife's did not. Our checks are bigger because of the revisions to the withholding tables. I hope that doesn't come back to bite us come April 15th. But to be honest, I really am out of the loop on deductions. I haven't been able to itemize since the 2000 tax year.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

I agree on vacation. In 2008 & 2009 we got some of the best deals WDW has ever offered in recent times.

We got flights from Washington DC to Maui, Hawaii for $399 per person in 2009!!!

 

[MillauFr]

The OP still hasn't answered the question. Why do you foresee a downturn? There is no evidence of that in Seattle. We have 64 tower cranes currently building new skyscrapers in the City. The place is booming so fast that we can't keep up. Go past the day 1 building at Amazon and the line of new employees snake around the block. Last time I checked there were 9,000 open positions just at Amazon. Many of them pay $100k+.

 

[tvguy]

Yep, all the sales reps have spoken to management. They are a giant Fortune 500 company, and they will not budge.

I asked our Business Manager about that. Oh, I'm in California, so that is why I was so surprised by that. They don't have an option here, they have to reimburse employee work expenses. So if your husband's company has California locations, those workers ARE getting reimbursed. Sound unfair.

 

[icicle]

The OP still hasn't answered the question. Why do you foresee a downturn? There is no evidence of that in Seattle. We have 64 tower cranes currently building new skyscrapers in the City. The place is booming so fast that we can't keep up. Go past the day 1 building at Amazon and the line of new employees snake around the block. Last time I checked there were 9,000 open positions just at Amazon. Many of them pay $100k+.

I'd love to hear from the OP as well. I'm in a medium sized midwest city and things are growing. Lots of companies looking for entry level employees and paying well for them. Disney is packed and building new hotels. Cruise lines are sailing full ships and building new, bigger ships every year.

 

[cruiser21]

I'd love to hear from the OP as well. I'm in a medium sized midwest city and things are growing. Lots of companies looking for entry level employees and paying well for them. Disney is packed and building new hotels. Cruise lines are sailing full ships and building new, bigger ships every year.

Maybe OP doesn't have a reason he just like posting it on multiple threads.

 

[Floridaman999]

Maybe OP doesn't have a reason he just like posting it on multiple threads.

According to their profile they are a she.

 

[cruiser21]

According to their profile they are a she.

With the screen name that starts with Mr. I'm sure I won't be the last person to make that mistake.

 

[Floridaman999]

With the screen name that starts with Mr. I'm sure I won't be the last person to make that mistake.

I'm sure you won't be. It could be by design. Just trying to be helpful.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

I asked our Business Manager about that. Oh, I'm in California, so that is why I was so surprised by that. They don't have an option here, they have to reimburse employee work expenses. So if your husband's company has California locations, those workers ARE getting reimbursed. Sound unfair.

I don’t even want to tell him that because he is sooooo steamed about the situation as it is!

 

[Colleen27]

Corporate taxes only make up 7% of total revenue. As far as individual tax cuts. Some people are paying less, some more. More people are working. I don't see the tax cuts doing anything, but increasing revenue. The economy would not be as strong as it is without the tax cuts. Rolling back a lot of the regulations has helped too.

None of the expert predictions support that, at all.

The OP still hasn't answered the question. Why do you foresee a downturn? There is no evidence of that in Seattle. We have 64 tower cranes currently building new skyscrapers in the City. The place is booming so fast that we can't keep up. Go past the day 1 building at Amazon and the line of new employees snake around the block. Last time I checked there were 9,000 open positions just at Amazon. Many of them pay $100k+.

He's (she's?) hardly alone. I've been hearing it for close to a year now, and I think it is mostly based on normal cycles along with ongoing concerns about flat wage growth/increasing costs of essentials as a constraint on consumer spending. People are, once again, borrowing to make up the difference, with consumer debt now significantly higher than it was in '08. When we, collectively, hit our borrowing limit it is going to be a major shock to the economy. And with so much of the post-recession job growth going to retail and service sectors, even a relatively minor drop in consumers' ability to spend will have significant ripple effects.

 

[cruiser21]

None of the expert predictions support that, at all.



He's (she's?) hardly alone. I've been hearing it for close to a year now, and I think it is mostly based on normal cycles along with ongoing concerns about flat wage growth/increasing costs of essentials as a constraint on consumer spending. People are, once again, borrowing to make up the difference, with consumer debt now significantly higher than it was in '08. When we, collectively, hit our borrowing limit it is going to be a major shock to the economy. And with so much of the post-recession job growth going to retail and service sectors, even a relatively minor drop in consumers' ability to spend will have significant ripple effects.

I guess we'll just have to see to wait and see how it all works itself out.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

None of the expert predictions support that, at all.
He's (she's?) hardly alone. I've been hearing it for close to a year now, and I think it is mostly based on normal cycles along with ongoing concerns about flat wage growth/increasing costs of essentials as a constraint on consumer spending. People are, once again, borrowing to make up the difference, with consumer debt now significantly higher than it was in '08. When we, collectively, hit our borrowing limit it is going to be a major shock to the economy. And with so much of the post-recession job growth going to retail and service sectors, even a relatively minor drop in consumers' ability to spend will have significant ripple effects.

According to the Washington Post article I read today, student loan debt may be the next “bubble”. If you take student loan debt out of the equation, the rest of our consumer debt is still below 2007 levels.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...youll-lose-your-house/?utm_term=.c1e0856813f8

 

[dish rag]

Sea World is laying off.

 

[cruiser21]

Sea World is laying off.

Haven't they had problems since Black fish was released.

 

[Hikergirl]

It's actually really easy to discuss without getting political. You're actually the first person to mention politics in the thread. Trying to stir the pot?

Interesting post coming from a new poster
I agree with you, it is easy to discuss.
Of course there will be another recession, who knows when. Hopefully people learned from the last one and it won't hit them as hard.

 

[Gumbo4x4]

None of the expert predictions support that, at all.



He's (she's?) hardly alone. I've been hearing it for close to a year now, and I think it is mostly based on normal cycles along with ongoing concerns about flat wage growth/increasing costs of essentials as a constraint on consumer spending. People are, once again, borrowing to make up the difference, with consumer debt now significantly higher than it was in '08. When we, collectively, hit our borrowing limit it is going to be a major shock to the economy. And with so much of the post-recession job growth going to retail and service sectors, even a relatively minor drop in consumers' ability to spend will have significant ripple effects.

Tax breaks are often followed by an increase in tax revenue. Whether the link is there is always up for debate.

 

[Colleen27]

According to the Washington Post article I read today, student loan debt may be the next “bubble”. If you take student loan debt out of the equation, the rest of our consumer debt is still below 2007 levels.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...youll-lose-your-house/?utm_term=.c1e0856813f8

I've read that too, but I have a hard time seeing how that bubble could "burst", given the impossibility of truly defaulting on student debt, the inability to discharge it in bankruptcy, and the fact that it isn't tied to any tangible asset.

 

[rigs32]

I think the point is that student loan debt, coupled with stagnant wages means that younger people are failing to launch. Not because they don't want to, but they can't afford to. I see the difference between those whose parents were able to pay for college and those who have to pay back their student loans. The timetable for things like home ownership and childbearing are noticeably different.