S/O Timeshares Thread - The Next Big Recession

[MrMiyagi]

Posted this on the timeshares thread but thought it was worthy of its own separate discussion.

I strongly believe that there will be a very, very ugly recession that hits in the next 12-24 months. This will likely wipe out a ton of people who have been living above their means over the past decade.

How do you think a recession would impact your life? Would you still go to Disney?

 

[FlightlessDuck]

What is your reasoning behind this fear of another recession?

 

[china mom]

I have the same question. Why are you predicting a recession?

But, to answer your question - if it were to happen: While no one is entirely recession proof, DH and I do live within our means and have jobs that are not usually affected by recession. A recession would likely not affect my Disney trips.

 

[morgan98]

So you are assuming that if people vacation, they are living over their means?

 

[dotfurio]

I was RIFed (reduction in force) a few years ago when our schools were hit hard. I have enough seniority now it shouldn't be an issue. So it probably wouldn't affect us too much.

 

[Spencer Wright]

Posted this on the timeshares thread but thought it was worthy of its own separate discussion.

I strongly believe that there will be a very, very ugly recession that hits in the next 12-24 months....How do you think a recession would impact your life? Would you still go to Disney?

I do not know when the next recession will occur, and I am by know means an Economist or anything like that, but I do believe the next recession with be absolutely brutal (i.e. great depression level). This is primarily based on my own anecdotal experience with people spending like CRAZY (in my opinion), as the economy has gotten arguably much stronger over the past year or so.

Also, the cost of housing, ect. has gotten out of control, and most people have simply not been saving.

I have about 3-5 months saved in case of a lay off or any other recession related issues. I live outside of Philadelphia, so from my limited experience I should be able to find some kind of job, to at the very least keep a roof over my head.

Many on these boards have stated a recession is a great time to buy on the re-sale market.

 

[MrMiyagi]

I do not know when the next recession will occur, and I am by know means an Economist or anything like that, but I do believe the next recession with be absolutely brutal (i.e. great depression level). This is primarily based on my own anecdotal experience with people spending like CRAZY (in my opinion), as the economy has gotten arguably much stronger over the past year or so.

Also, the cost of housing, ect. has gotten out of control, and most people have simply not been saving.

I have about 3-5 months saved in case of a lay off or any other recession related issues. I live outside of Philadelphia, so from my limited experience I should be able to find some kind of job, to at the very least keep a roof over my head.

Many on these boards have stated a recession is a great time to buy on the re-sale market.

I totally agree. One thing to keep in mind is that because of the tax cuts that were passed last year, we won't have much ammunition left when the recession does come. That will be a problem.

 

[MrMiyagi]

So you are assuming that if people vacation, they are living over their means?

Are you asking me if I think all are or just some are?

 

[Gumbo4x4]

My industry has a 12-15 year backlog, so I’m hoping to limp on through to retirement.


Of course, one of the biggest reasons for the current backlog was the tightening of $$$ during the last recession. Demand was going UP, but nobody could get financing for the projects.

Edit: I don’t see the wreckless spending some are seeing. I saw it in the years leading up to ‘08, but not now. YMMV

 

[cabanafrau]

Seeing a lot of companies lately announcing strong earnings, predicting strong growth, and continuing to reduce headcount.

 

[Marchand63]

My DH company is downsizing he declined the offer to stay at another plant He’s been offered three or four other jobs at other plants in the area
His old place is consolidating he just can’t stay in that area plenty of jobs looking for his skill set
His actual company as it off with him positions anywhere he wants to go in the country
So he’s going to take a couple months off and then start his new job which they are happy to wait for him
And we will actually be 10 minutes apart from each other

 

[Floridaman999]

I'd stock up on tacos and hope for the best. I absolutely love tacos.

 

[QueenIsabella]

I would like to know what specific indicators there are, that a major recession is looming. I, personally, don't see the major indicators like we had in 1999-2000 and again in 2008 (easy credit, home loans with little to no down payment to high-risk buyers, that kind of thing).

I also think it's very easy to say "a recession is coming!", and eventually, we'll have one. Right now, the economy seems strong--low unemployment, low interest rates, businesses are expanding, and so forth.

 

[QueenIsabella]

I should have added--the Queen Isabella family will be fine. We have $$ saved, DH could retire tomorrow, but he's one of those weirdos who actually likes his job.

 

[barkley]

Posted this on the timeshares thread but thought it was worthy of its own separate discussion.

I strongly believe that there will be a very, very ugly recession that hits in the next 12-24 months. This will likely wipe out a ton of people who have been living above their means over the past decade.

How do you think a recession would impact your life? Would you still go to Disney?

i think to some extent a recession in the next 12-24 months could look for some of the population very different from the most recent-and they may not be as negatively impacted as their (now) older family members were during the last one.

dd is 24 and a recent college grad. when i look back to the time preceding the last recession it was the norm (at least where we lived) that many of the first time home buyers were about that age or a bit older. they spent freely without regard for what could happen in an economic downturn-they had their student loans (maybe not as high as the average amount carried these days but still a chunk of change), they had just bought homes and then turned around and either used credit cards or whatever equity had quickly accumulated to re-fi at a larger payment to furnish their homes and buy nice new vehicles and 'toys' to fill their garages/rv pads. there were also the established homeowners of course and it wasn't unusual for them to opt to buy/finance luxury items/travel over funding any kind of savings b/c historically home values had increased over time and they saw their homes as their emergency funds.

then the s... hit the fan, housing bubble bursts and values plummet, recession hits and jobs are wiped out. foreclosures and financial devastation as far as the eye can see. but some eyes were paying attention-we have an entire generation of 20 and early 30 somethings who saw and/or experienced that recession and for many it left a mark. they lived through lost homes/friends losing their homes, drastic cutbacks in lifestyle, what was considered a basic need becoming a luxury, a college degree no longer the golden ticket to a job let alone a well paying job, and many families torn apart.

i see many in this younger group living very differently than prior generations. choosing to try and dig their way OUT of college debt before taking on more with a home or vehicle purchase (heck most of the 20 somethings dd graduated with don't own even old clunkers-they use other transportation options). many continue living in multi roommate situations LONG after what previous generations would have considered appropriate and a significant chunk move back in w/their parent's blessing to get their student debt under control and/or build the emergency fund their parents would have killed for during the last recession. sure there is the population that has massive credit card debt for luxuries and live beyond their means but when i look at the 'kids' dd went to high school and college with most seem to be making financial choices for both the short and long term that are influenced by the bad economic times they grew up in.

 

[Gumbo4x4]

he's one of those weirdos who actually likes his job.

 

[okeydokey]

I too see a big recession in the next couple of years. For my family, we have pretty stable jobs and savings. I do worry for my daughter who will be graduating College at that time.

 

[cruiser21]

Of course “someday” there will be another recession. Theres always recessions. As far as wiping eveyone out? I don’t know this country is pretty resilant.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

I’m a middle school language arts teacher with a business degree and some banking experience, but economics is not my thing. I do know that my DH is in a leading indicator industry, and he’s seen no downturn in his business and no concerning movement on pricing of the petroleum based goods he sells. In 2008/2009 he felt the downturn months earlier than everyone else. Over the course of those two years, he lost a third of his 100% commission based income. Luckily we bought a house within our means, so our home was never at risk. But we did rack up some credit card debt making ends meet before we realized the downturn in his commissions was permanent and tightened our belts. His income has recovered now, and the debt is almost paid off. We also have money in savings; my salary is recession proof; we are pretty frugal people; one of our kids will be graduating in May 2019 with no student loan debt; the other will have 2 more years of college, but her tuition is prepaid, so we only have to worry about room and board. I think we'll be fine.

My son is in finance. I just asked him about an upcoming recession. He said a correction is coming eventually because we’ve had 10 years of pretty good economic growth. He also mentioned the T bill rate flattening (the difference between 30 year T bill rates and the 1 year T bill rates is getting closer together/flattening). He thinks there will be a correction eventually, but he doesn’t think it will be massive because there really isn’t any current bubble. If you are interested in what caused the last big bubble (housing) in 2008/2009, you should read the book or watch the movie The Big Short - totally fascinating. He sent me this article as well. It’s a good read:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...-coming-its-what-are-we-going-to-do-about-it/

 

[cruiser21]

Im more optimistic about the future then I’ve been in 10 years.