RUMOR: Disney Planning for Walt Disney World to Remain Closed for the Rest of 2020?

[conandrob240]

Well this helps to make up my mind. I was thinking of going late Oct, early Nov but was being cautious about making my reservation. But this has just swayed me to wait until next spring.

This makes no sense. Of course they have to plan for a worst case scenario. They’d be irresponsible business leaders if they didn’t. It has no predictive value though. I’ll be they plan for large scale terrorist attacks, mass shootings, earthquakes and so on. Doesn’t mean that it will happen.

 

[dragonflymom]

Have we forgotten about the protests in Hong Kong already? That special administration has been accused of just being a puppet government for mainland.

That said, parks are closed. Doesn’t matter if it’s China, Tokyo, etc. and quite frankly I’m not sure anyone has an accurate count or agreement on what a COVId-19 death is.

Is it death based on the symptoms? Is it death regardless of reason as long as tests show they have it? Is it deaths related to mistakes made from an overwhelmed care system?

Wow, that is a cynical response to a low COVID-19 death number. There is a logical explanation why the number is so low for Hong Kong since Hong Kong people have been traumatized by the SARS outbreak back in 2003 when over 300 people died. When the first cases of COVID-19 showed up, everyone took it seriously and did their part early on, wearing face masks, washing hands often, avoiding crowds, sanitizing public spaces... Schools were already closed in January. Hospitals were prepared. A second spike occurred with imported cases from Europe and U.S. including college students forced to return home, with cases doubling but deaths continued to stay low. Hong Kong is not China. Why not embrace the success story with early mitigation instead of implying the numbers are suspect?

 

[dvcterry]

Great on Disney that they are doing plan and have a worst case scenario, but really, you think the governor of Florida is going to keep their biggest industry shut for the entire remainder of the year. I certainly don't.

Nor do I.

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't think it is as simple as what the governor wants---or even what the company's executive leadership, board of directors, or shareholders want. What matters is what the virus does, in the context of how we behave.

The most likely scenario I think we are looking at, for at least the next many months, is what some folks have called the "dance" from this article: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

The basic idea: once we get things tamped down, we will have to watch things very closely. Just because case numbers go down, that doesn't change the fundamental qualities of the virus. It is still highly contagious during pre-symptomatic periods or in asymptomatic cases. So, if we just go back to "normal", we're going to start all over again where we were in, say, February. Instead, slowly lifting restrictions plus very aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation will be the way we limp along until a vaccine is widely available. That's likely to take at least another year.

In that world, some things take longer to come back than others---and the more densely people congregate in an activity, the later it is going to come back, if at comes back at all before a vaccine. One of the latter things to come back will be cramming people into switchbacks in a theme park. Even if the parks are open, they will look very very different, because you just can't put as many people in them as you do normally. And, it might not be profitable to run them that way, in which case Disney would probably rather just keep them closed.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I guess Disney should stop building new resorts unless they are going to also add another gate. The more resorts = more guests = over crowded parks. At this point I think Disney has already tipped the scale to far to the side of overcrowding the parks with all the new resorts they have added and no new gate to offset the added number of guests. Financially this isn't the time for Disney to add a new gate and it takes years to build one, that being said I would be happy if they just finished all the updates to the current parks. In Jan of this year the place was like a huge over crowded construction site. To many people and not enough attractions open to accommodate everyone.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't think it is as simple as what the governor wants---or even what the company's executive leadership, board of directors, or shareholders want. What matters is what the virus does, in the context of how we behave.

The most likely scenario I think we are looking at, for at least the next many months, is what some folks have called the "dance" from this article: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

The basic idea: once we get things tamped down, we will have to watch things very closely. Just because case numbers go down, that doesn't change the fundamental qualities of the virus. It is still highly contagious during pre-symptomatic periods or in asymptomatic cases. So, if we just go back to "normal", we're going to start all over again where we were in, say, February. Instead, slowly lifting restrictions plus very aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation will be the way we limp along until a vaccine is widely available. That's likely to take at least another year.

In that world, some things take longer to come back than others---and the more densely people congregate in an activity, the later it is going to come back, if at comes back at all before a vaccine. One of the latter things to come back will be cramming people into switchbacks in a theme park. Even if the parks are open, they will look very very different, because you just can't put as many people in them as you do normally. And, it might not be profitable to run them that way, in which case Disney would probably rather just keep them closed.

But, DVC is in a unique situation because if you read the Emergency powers it says they have to keep the closure as limited as possible,

Once all of the government actions are rescinded, and many businesses are back on line, it call into question whether or not thst clause is being followed,

IMO, they had the ability to close, but I don’t think they can keep DVC closed beyond what would be considered reasonable, if government in the state has said its safe to being opening back up.

 

[The Prophet]

Since this still is a new virus, I feel that all we need more data and better models to predict how this will play out
Once the restrictions are relaxed (or removed) the virus will still be around. Simply put, we can't shut down the economy for 18/24 months until a vaccine is invented and widely available. Many businesses, such as supermarkets, have implemented methods to mitigate this and Disney will do the same.
For a different perspective, read the opinion below from the NY Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I guess Disney should stop building new resorts unless they are going to also add another gate. The more resorts = more guests = over crowded parks. At this point I think Disney has already tipped the scale to far to the side of overcrowding the parks with all the new resorts they have added and no new gate to offset the added number of guests. Financially this isn't the time for Disney to add a new gate and it takes years to build one, that being said I would be happy if they just finished all the updates to the current parks. In Jan of this year the place was like a huge over crowded construction site. To many people and not enough attractions open to accommodate everyone.

New resorts don't increase park load. New resorts are intended to move users from off-site lodging to on-site. Off-site lodging is the greatest driver of park traffic.

The number of people who can be accommodated on property is a fraction of park capacity.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Great on Disney that they are doing plan and have a worst case scenario, but really, you think the governor of Florida is going to keep their biggest industry shut for the entire remainder of the year. I certainly don't.

The parks will open, however, the operational experience will be unlike anything we have experienced in our lifetimes. Given the planned attraction closures, social distancing measures, and added personal hygiene practices, the leading question is whether or not this is a Disney Parks experience that one would like to have and share with their family.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

New resorts don't increase park load. New resorts are intended to move users from off-site lodging to on-site. Off-site lodging is the greatest driver of park traffic.

The number of people who can be accommodated on property is a fraction of park capacity.

It's a fraction yes like 50% or more but I still think more resorts = more guests and more guests = more traffic at the parks. If you could supply your source to say otherwise please do. I just did a quick Bing.com search and found a source w/Disney World Statistics. The showed the total number of rooms (guessing from 2018 because the attendance numbers are from 2018) to be 34,501; this includes Disney owned resorts, DVC, cabins, campground. This number doesn't include the following: Best Western Lake Buena Vista Resort Hotel (325 rooms), Buena Vista Palace (1,013 rooms), Walt Disney World Dolphin (1,509 rooms), Doubletree Guest Suites Resort (229 rooms), The Hilton (814 rooms), Holiday Inn (323 rooms), Shades of Green on Walt Disney World Resort (586 rooms), Walt Disney World Swan (756 rooms), and Wyndham Lake Buena Vista (626 rooms).

Taking 34,501 x 2 people per room type (conservative estimate) x 365 days per year = 25,185,730 per year staying in Disney resorts. Add to that number the guests staying at the highlighted resorts which accounts for another 3,477 rooms x 2 people per room x 365 days = 2,538,210 additional guests for a new total of 27,723,940 guests per year. This is based on all rooms being occupied everyday of the year which probably isn't accurate and it also assumes 2 guests per room which is probable a low number so that can offset the days per year the rooms are occupied. This is over half the total number of guests per year.

This source also showed attendance in the theme parks only (not the water parks) to be 58,311,000 in 2018. My ruff estimate shows WDW can house 27,723,940 guests with no problem, they have the capacity to house many more then that number if using max guests per room. That being said I think that new onsite resorts could very well add to the attendance numbers at the parks. I think people will still occupy the offsite locations (because they are cheaper) and other time shares in the area in addition to occupying the new rooms at WDW.

If you don't agree that is your prerogative, I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

 

[Summer2018]

I'm so glad I cancelled my June 2020 trip. We are now booked for July 2021, hotel only, just so that we could get our rooms at the Polynesian. I just hope by then things are closer to normal.

 

[DougEMG]

I don't think it is as simple as what the governor wants---or even what the company's executive leadership, board of directors, or shareholders want. What matters is what the virus does, in the context of how we behave.

The most likely scenario I think we are looking at, for at least the next many months, is what some folks have called the "dance" from this article: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

The basic idea: once we get things tamped down, we will have to watch things very closely. Just because case numbers go down, that doesn't change the fundamental qualities of the virus. It is still highly contagious during pre-symptomatic periods or in asymptomatic cases. So, if we just go back to "normal", we're going to start all over again where we were in, say, February. Instead, slowly lifting restrictions plus very aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation will be the way we limp along until a vaccine is widely available. That's likely to take at least another year.

In that world, some things take longer to come back than others---and the more densely people congregate in an activity, the later it is going to come back, if at comes back at all before a vaccine. One of the latter things to come back will be cramming people into switchbacks in a theme park. Even if the parks are open, they will look very very different, because you just can't put as many people in them as you do normally. And, it might not be profitable to run them that way, in which case Disney would probably rather just keep them closed.

Actually I think it is what the majority of the people want that matter, the governor's job is to implement the people's wishes. Right now their job sucks and I don't envy them. They are having to determine how much financial hardship (money) to impose in order to safe lives. Is each life saved worth spending $10,000, $100,000, or even a $1,000,000. What level of payment is society willing to accept in order to save a life. Given that the US doesn't have a public healthcare system available to everyone and that many Americans live paycheck to paycheck I am guessing that the amount of hardship most Americans will accept is not that high.

The article is an excellent read, thanks for the link. I'm certainly in favor of the approach they are recommending, but then the lock down isn't affecting me at all financially so I'll be fine no matter how long the lock down lasts.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

May be old news, but I just read that Desantis appointed Disney and Universal execs (among others) to a task-force to figure out how to open up Florida.

 

[justadreamaway77]

Nothing China reports can be seen as accurate.

I believe parks in the Asian market are not primarily owned by Disney. The government/other companies purchased the rights/only let Disney be partial owners. It is mentioned in the imagineering documentary on Disney+

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Disney will open because they have to in order to survive. But also, the entire point of the lockdown was to spread out cases so that hospitals are not overwhelmed. They never intended for the country to be locked down indefinitely until the virus was completely eradicated. The US attorney general has already said he will sue governors who try to keep things locked down. Time to open up!

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

How can Disneyland Shanghai remain closed, when China reports less than 100 new cases per day, and WDW would open when the US reports over 20,000 new cases per day?

It’s an authoritarian regime. They have millions of people imprisoned in “re-education” camps. I doubt Disney actually has any say about when that park opens. It was a really bad move building that park if you ask me.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

It seems that WDW being closed for the rest of 2020 is likely with the government's 3 phase plan for re-opening. Disney would not be able to re-open until phase 3 which is going to be many months out.

Most southern states have had pretty weak lockdowns as is except for a few larger cities, and even those— nothing like up North. There has been talk but nothing has been enforced where we live, and life has been pretty normal except for school being closed and a few businesses being closed. We bought a car a couple of days ago and the place was packed, no social distancing, no masks, highways had normal amounts of traffic. I think the national news only reports on the northern half of the country for some reason. Every once and a while they will show some story in the south where they try to make people who live there look stupid. Whatever. Florida has already opened a lot of beaches. It won’t take much to open the rest of Florida. Those “phases” may play in NY, but people down here have little tolerance for that and governors know it.

 

[kboo]

The parks will open, however, the operational experience will be unlike anything we have experienced in our lifetimes. Given the planned attraction closures, social distancing measures, and added personal hygiene practices, the leading question is whether or not this is a Disney Parks experience that one would like to have and share with their family.

I think what is "normal" after this initial lockdown eases, is going to be a completely new normal, and we are getting used to it. 15 years ago, on a vacation in Japan, I was surprised by the prevalence in mask-wearing, and that taxi drivers opened and shut the passenger doors for you. Here in NYC we are already living a new normal - and that includes masks and social distancing and lots and lots of hand washing, personal hygiene. We were "bracing for impact" for hospitals to be overwhelmed, and they were (but thankfully now they're less overwhelmed than they were even two weeks ago); now we are bracing for impact of an economic recession that we have also probably never seen in our lifetimes, sadly. But our grandparents (or parents) made it through the Great Depression, and we will too. But I agree, the world will be very different after we are through this. I am choosing to be hopeful that we find more commonality than difference, and that we (the world) learn better how to take care of each other.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I think what is "normal" after this initial lockdown eases, is going to be a completely new normal, and we are getting used to it. 15 years ago, on a vacation in Japan, I was surprised by the prevalence in mask-wearing, and that taxi drivers opened and shut the passenger doors for you. Here in NYC we are already living a new normal - and that includes masks and social distancing and lots and lots of hand washing, personal hygiene. We were "bracing for impact" for hospitals to be overwhelmed, and they were (but thankfully now they're less overwhelmed than they were even two weeks ago); now we are bracing for impact of an economic recession that we have also probably never seen in our lifetimes, sadly. But our grandparents (or parents) made it through the Great Depression, and we will too. But I agree, the world will be very different after we are through this. I am choosing to be hopeful that we find more commonality than difference, and that we (the world) learn better how to take care of each other.

I found the last line of your post to be very uplifting, thanks. I think we all need to be as positive about our current situation as possible, I find all the doom and gloom very destressing and not helpful at all.

 

[Summer2018]

Thank God I live up north. I'm not trying to die.