ROFR Thread January to March 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[ClaraOswald]

Very interesting. I'm not a numbers gal so I did a much different kind of "math" when I decided to purchase.

Is it realistic to assume dues will increase in that way? When I did my "math" I definitely figured in a dues increase but I can't remember if I did THAT much of an increase.

Also, which room types were you comparing here?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Hypothetically, if Disney were to ROFR an Aulani Subsidized contract and then resell those points, would the subsidy still attach for the new (direct) buyer? Or could Disney use ROFR as a way to clear the subsidy off the books?

I don’t think anyone really knows because it’s never happened before that I’m aware of. You would think it would be in Disney’s interest to take back these subsidies but I think the percentage of sub contracts out there are so small that Disney probably doesn’t care or want to bother. Besides, Aulani won’t probably sell out for a very long time so they will not ROFR for a very long time either, if they’ll ever.

 

[AstroBlasters]

AstroBlasters---$120-$13914-100-AUL-Mar-0/23, 162/24, 100/25, 100/26-Subsidized- sent 2/8

Update:

AstroBlasters---$120-$13914-100-AUL-Mar-0/23, 162/24, 100/25, 100/26-Subsidized- sent 2/8, passed 2/26

 

[AstroBlasters]

Very interesting. I'm not a numbers gal so I did a much different kind of "math" when I decided to purchase.

Is it realistic to assume dues will increase in that way? When I did my "math" I definitely figured in a dues increase but I can't remember if I did THAT much of an increase.

Also, which room types were you comparing here?

They are assuming that they can always get a room on a discount at 20% and that they will always earn 10% compounded every year on the money they would have used for the purchase.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

AstroBlasters---$155-$21334-125-VGF-Feb-0/23, 125/24, 125/25, 125/26- sent 2/7, passed 2/26

Congrats! I know you were hoping for VGF!

 

[ClaraOswald]

They are assuming that they can always get a room on a discount at 20% and that they will always earn 10% compounded every year on the money they would have used for the purchase.

Ah...I see. I definitely didn't account for any room discounts or earning 10% money not spent on DVC (since...let's be honest...I would have spent that money on something else anyway! )

 

[AstroBlasters]

Very interesting. I'm not a numbers gal so I did a much different kind of "math" when I decided to purchase.

Is it realistic to assume dues will increase in that way? When I did my "math" I definitely figured in a dues increase but I can't remember if I did THAT much of an increase.

Also, which room types were you comparing here?

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-menu/financial/annual-dues-by-resort
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buying/annual-dues/

Grand Cal has averaged 5.4% CAGR

 

[AstroBlasters]

Congrats! I know you were hoping for VGF!

Thank you!

 

[WanderlustinFP]

WanderlustinFP--$135-$22183-150-BCV-Dec-241/23, 150/24, 150/25- sent 2/6, passed 2/26

We said we would never buy any more, yet here we are. It is our favorite resort.

 

[AstroBlasters]

WanderlustinFP--$135-$22183-150-BCV-Dec-241/23, 150/24, 150/25- sent 2/6, passed 2/26

We said we would never buy any more, yet here we are. It is our favorite resort.

That is a great price on a loaded contract! What makes it your favorite resort?

 

[WanderlustinFP]

That is a great price on a loaded contract! What makes it your favorite resort?

My kids love SAB, and I love the close proximity to Epcot. DH and the kids like to sleep in and I venture off to Epcot in the AM on my own.

 

[TinkAgainU]

Is it realistic to assume dues will increase in that way? When I did my "math" I definitely figured in a dues increase but I can't remember if I did THAT much of an increase.

Some are higher, some lower, but this chart gives the historical % increases for each resort. Easy to notice they've all pretty much increased a couple percent in the last few years. I thought 5% (and I see WinterSoldier agreed) was probably a reasonable assumption for mine. My two are at 3.5%, but some resorts are already averaging over 5% increases ... I figured 5% was a better number to use for my own estimates.

This site has two charts for each resort, both the fees and percentages are shown.

https://www.dvchelp.com/page/maintenance-fees-current-and-historical

 

[lorie13]

Update:

AstroBlasters---$120-$13914-100-AUL-Mar-0/23, 162/24, 100/25, 100/26-Subsidized- sent 2/8, passed 2/26

The 250 point contract can not be too far behind and once that passes, we should pass too.

 

[Chili327]

View attachment 836967

I've got break-even on a Net Present Value basis coming somewhere around 2053 if you never pay for housekeeping.

Hotel increase is 4% and Dues is 5%?
I always thought hotel averages were higher than dues.
Is 5% based on VGC specifically over the last 10+ years?

 

[TinkAgainU]

Update:

AstroBlasters---$120-$13914-100-AUL-Mar-0/23, 162/24, 100/25, 100/26-Subsidized- sent 2/8, passed 2/26

Nice! Love those Subsidized contracts!!!

 

[WinterSolider]

Hotel increase is 4% and Dues is 5%?
I always thought hotel averages were higher than dues.
Is 5% based on VGC specifically over the last 10+ years?

I always make conservative (arguably overly conservative) assumptions when $50,000 is being kicked around.

But there was no real rigor in those numbers, I'm not actively shopping for Grand Cal so I'm not maintaining a live model with hard data. It's just an example of the sort of numbers I would run before making an offer on something.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The 250 point contract can not be too far behind and once that passes, we should pass too.

Should be this week….

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Hotel increase is 4% and Dues is 5%?
I always thought hotel averages were higher than dues.
Is 5% based on VGC specifically over the last 10+ years?

I thought the hotel rate increase at 4% was very unlikely to be correct — but it has varied so wildly that it’s hard for me to put a number on it. Also the main discounts I see for the VGC and DH is Magic Key holder (and they are often on weekdays). If you travel on Th-Fri-Sat-Sun you’re paying a totally different price than someone who has the flexibility and I go Mon-Tue-Wed-Th and plan their lives around Disney promotions. While the point chart is often 10-25% higher on weekends, VGC rates can be effectively 30-75% higher on weekends.

I also think that 10% is a nearly impossible rate of return on investments, ESPECIALLY in a taxable brokerage account. Hopefully nobody (in their 30s/40s anyway) is cleaning out 401ks or IRAs to buy DVC.

If we planned DLR trips in advance we’d find value in VGC at 250/pt…but we almost never plan them more than 90 days in advance and we can drive as a day trip so it’s really hard to justify VGC points. If they ever go below $200, we might pick some up and actually plan a DLR vacation once a year.

 

[WDW Couple]

WDW Couple---$130-$5200-40-BWV-Aug-0/23, 0/24, 39/25 sent 1/11 - PASSED 2/1

 

[WDW Couple]

WDW Couple---$135-$6750-50-BRV-Aug-0/23, 100/24, 50/25 sent 1/18 - PASSED 2/7