ROFR Thread January to March 2021 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Ruttangel]

Hi - I've done some analysis on taken contracts (from @pangyal ROFR threads) since Jan 2020, which I appreciate includes a whole period where Disney stopped doing ROFR but I hope it helps someone although it probably just confirms the random nature of it all....

 

[Ginamarie]

I’m really surprised to see AKV being taken. I paid $106/pp for a loaded contract a couple of months ago and it passed, and they hadn’t been taking really any AKV for the last few months. I’m curious to see if this starts a trend of buying back AKV or if they just wanted those couple for some reason.

 

[Lee Matthews]

Maybe if Riviera is struggling then direct customers are willing to go on a wait list and Disney are now just for filling those contracts in bulk?
So strange and annoying there’s no definitive pattern

 

[RanDIZ]

OneTsp---$106-$21995-200-AKV-Aug-0/19, 0/20, 0/21, 200/22- sent 1/31, taken 2/24

Looks like they’re moving on to AKV. Not good for buyers. Especially with this one stripped.

 

[RanDIZ]

Hi - I've done some analysis on taken contracts (from @pangyal ROFR threads) since Jan 2020, which I appreciate includes a whole period where Disney stopped doing ROFR but I hope it helps someone although it probably just confirms the random nature of it all....


View attachment 559676

I didn’t realize that many AKV were taken. Wow!

 

[JavaDuck]

Update!

JavaDuck---$240-$25404-100-VGC-Feb-0/20, 200/21, 100/22- sent 2/3, passed 2/28

Woo Hoo! Faster than the first time!

 

[Paul Stupin]

I’m really surprised to see AKV being taken. I paid $106/pp for a loaded contract a couple of months ago and it passed, and they hadn’t been taking really any AKV for the last few months. I’m curious to see if this starts a trend of buying back AKV or if they just wanted those couple for some reason.

I think they took back a bunch of points to replenish their AKV inventory. They subsequently sold it, and now need more. It must be a popular direct purchase. I bet this is going to be the new normal with their focus on selling sold out resorts, since CCV is almost done, and Aulani not a huge seller.

 

[Sandisw]

I am not aware of the seller paying closing costs effecting whether a contract passes or fails. I thought it was all about the price per point and if it is loaded or stripped. But, then again I am disillusioned by all the AKV stripped contracts being snatched up the last two days.

Seller paying closing enhances the contract for Disney as it’s one less thing they have to pay.

But, it still comes down to everything involved. This is just another piece of the puzzle.

 

[I Run Long]

I’m really surprised to see AKV being taken. I paid $106/pp for a loaded contract a couple of months ago and it passed, and they hadn’t been taking really any AKV for the last few months. I’m curious to see if this starts a trend of buying back AKV or if they just wanted those couple for some reason.

I'm surprised too. Mine passed at $100/pp and it was stripped too. I guess they are moving onto AKV but for those prospective buys - I hope not.

 

[pangyal]

Updated!

It really does seem like they target specific resorts and it's a cyclical thing. Totally anecdotal, of course, but from my experience in compiling this data over the years, it really appears to be part of their strategy.

I remember a few years ago when we wanted to add on some AKL points. I picked the apparently worst time to do so, since they took I believe six of my contracts in a row and then poof! The one that had the second-lowest price of all of them was the one that suddenly went through. They took a LOT of AKL around the same time and we basically had an ROFR-ed AKL support group forming on the thread. Then it was like they just moved on to another resort and all of AKL started passing. I've noticed the same sort of pattern continuing before and after that as well. I believe that's why many of us squeaked through ridiculously-priced BCV this quarter, for example- I'm not sure that would be the same result in a few months.

 

[Disneytrippin']

Updated!

It really does seem like they target specific resorts and it's a cyclical thing. Totally anecdotal, of course, but from my experience in compiling this data over the years, it really appears to be part of their strategy.

I remember a few years ago when we wanted to add on some AKL points. I picked the apparently worst time to do so, since they took I believe six of my contracts in a row and then poof! The one that had the second-lowest price of all of them was the one that suddenly went through. They took a LOT of AKL around the same time and we basically had an ROFR-ed AKL support group forming on the thread. Then it was like they just moved on to another resort and all of AKL started passing. I've noticed the same sort of pattern continuing before and after that as well. I believe that's why many of us squeaked through ridiculously-priced BCV this quarter, for example- I'm not sure that would be the same result in a few months.

I'm already looking at a back up contracts. I'm next on the cutting board as my contract was sent 2/3. I was so confident up until today.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Highest SSR was $115 and lowest amount of points 25 - wow, I'm toast! 50 points at $110. I have enough to do our fall trip and then some, thankfully!

I have never lost a contract to ROFR, but I'm wondering if this will fly. Thanks @Ruttangel!

 

[FroZone the Pirate]

Looking at the analysis spreadsheet I'm feeling iffy on my stripped 150 SSR contract at $105 a point. Just keeping a positive vibe gotta feeling this first week of March will be the week.

 

[michael730]

Looking at the analysis spreadsheet I'm feeling iffy on my stripped 150 SSR contract at $105 a point. Just keeping a positive vibe gotta feeling this first week of March will be the week.

A whole bunch of SSR springs contracts passed this past week at 100 a point I wouldn’t be too worried from what I saw this past week

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Highest SSR was $115 and lowest amount of points 25 - wow, I'm toast! 50 points at $110. I have enough to do our fall trip and then some, thankfully!

I have never lost a contract to ROFR, but I'm wondering if this will fly. Thanks @Ruttangel!

Hoping you keep your perfect record!!

 

[Lee Matthews]

If they are buying back all of these AKV contracts then if I get a reply to say that Disney has bought it then the best thing to do is wait until they have moved onto another resort?

 

[Ruttangel]

....and here is some data on passed contracts from July 2020 - some small data samples to be taken with pinch of salt
Again, I hope it helps someone

 

[N8TR8]

N8TR8---$102-$33755-300-BRV@WL-Sep-363/20, 300/21, 300/22- sent 2/3, passed 2/26

 

[tripgoerNS]

tripgoerNS---$110.5-$13970-120-SSR-Dec-233/20, 120/21, 120/22- sent 2/3, passed 3/1

 

[Divaofdisney]

tripgoerNS---$110.5-$13970-120-SSR-Dec-233/20, 120/21, 120/22- sent 2/3, passed 3/1

Congratulations!!