I agree that Aulani has further to fall. I just started offering on AUL, BRV and AKL contracts in January. These are the first offers I have ever made on a
DVC contract. Anyway, the first offer I made was on 1/13 on an AUL contract that was almost exactly what you described. The seller came back at $100pp. This contract is still sitting for sale. I then offered on a few other ones like this and got a counter of $100pp again. All of these had double points for 2023. What I am trying to say is that you should be able to get this deal fairly easily right now. I was not willing to pay more than $90pp so kept looking and then decided to go with AKL instead.