ROFR Thread April to June 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Even going so far as to showing their instant sale option (which they conveniently left out the seller is on the hook for all closing costs, commission, fees, and dues) as a reason to not go lower than $5-6/pt from listing.

This right here! I myself was disappointed in Chad too.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Nothing lasts forever but we can also assume that DVC might not keep rising in value forever too. I know that history says different but someone also said that past performance doesn’t dictate future performance. I too believe the market will change with the economic tide. But we might be in a low tide for awhile and it’ll be interesting to see how long sellers can hold out.

History does indeed say different, but we all know DVC is no investment. I think over the long term prices will trend up, who knows how much. As long as prices for cash stays trend up, as they always will, DVC remains a great option. I’m excluding the 2042 resorts though. On those I think we’ll see a long, slow slide down in prices.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Let’s talk about why they ROFR in the first place—to turn a profit by re-selling those points direct. But direct sales have been abysmal the last couple of months. Over the past year they bought back almost 200k SSR points (and ROFRing as high as $140pp in the process) but only sold 40k of those points in that same time period. That’s just one resort. Multiply that across all resorts and you can see why they completely stopped ROFRing. They just bought too many points back at too high of a price.

If demand for cash stays were high one could make a case that they could and should ROFR these contracts going for $80-100/pt. But demand isn’t high, otherwise they wouldn’t have 25-30% discounts off rack rate for cash stays at the villas (return of APs is another signal of low overall demand). And I doing think they want to be in the business of renting out their points when they have 3 resorts to sell out and 2 additional ones coming online within the next 2 years. I haven’t even mentioned cost cutting measures they’re trying to implement company wide, but you can’t deny that there is at least some logic as to why no ROFR could last for awhile. Who knows, maybe APs coming back or the new 100pt minimum for new members could shift things, but my money is on the ROFR monster seeing its shadow and hibernating a little bit longer.

The cash stay discounts always come and go seasonally, but it remains a very profitable business for Disney, and those ROFRed contracts are used for that as well. That’s a business they want to be in, no matter how many resorts they’re selling. Witness Aulani, not yet sold out (but getting there) but I don’t think Disney cares because they can use all those points for cash stays and the place is always packed.
Also, Disney wouldn’t be building the Polynesian Tower if they weren’t bullish on the long term prospects of DVC. And I think we all are too, or we wouldn’t be buying!
I really do think that the “free lunch forever” exuberance, though invigorating and fun, is just wrong.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This right here! I myself was disappointed in Chad too.

Chad didn’t show it but I think he was a bit shocked at how low his CCV contract was valued with the instant sale offer. But yeah, even he is beholden to the sponsor.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The cash stay discounts always come and go seasonally, but it remains a very profitable business for Disney, and those ROFRed contracts are used for that as well. That’s a business they want to be in, no matter how many resorts they’re selling. Witness Aulani, not yet sold out (but getting there) but I don’t think Disney cares because they can use all those points for cash stays and the place is always packed.
Also, Disney wouldn’t be building the Polynesian Tower if they weren’t bullish on the long term prospects of DVC. And I think we all are too, or we wouldn’t be buying!
I really do think that the “free lunch forever” exuberance, though invigorating and fun, is just wrong.

Agree with everything. Though, the Poly tower is a low hanging fruit for Disney. I’ll fully believe DVC being bullish if they really invest in another truly unique resort, which they don’t seem interested in. Just refurbs of existing hotels and plain towers.

 

[MommyTo5]

Two identical contracts with the same seller! Sent to Disney for ROFR today!!!

MommyTo5---$125-$21918-160-BLT-Aug-0/22, 320/23, 160/24- sent 4/7
MommyTo5---$125-$21918-160-BLT-Aug-0/22, 320/23, 160/24- sent 4/7

 

[AstroBlasters]

Agree with everything. Though, the Poly tower is a low hanging fruit for Disney. I’ll fully believe DVC being bullish if they really invest in another truly unique resort, which they don’t seem interested in. Just refurbs of existing hotels and plain towers.

I read somewhere that they have plans for a new resort right next to the EPCOT entrance…. That would sell for $$$… so who knows what will happen…

 

[hilltopper152]

Hilltopper152---$150-$4440-25-BLT-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 12/23, 25/24- sent 4/7

Wanted 50 but it was there and I was ready. Adding to my only contract at BLT. Now I can afford halloween theme park view for a whole week at least ha! Well if ROFR stays away for another month.

 

[hilltopper152]

Two identical contracts with the same seller! Sent to Disney for ROFR today!!!

MommyTo5---$125-$21918-160-BLT-Aug-0/22, 320/23, 160/24- sent 4/7
MommyTo5---$125-$21918-160-BLT-Aug-0/22, 320/23, 160/24- sent 4/7

Jealous. I have 160 and now maybe 185. Moving to every other year so we can have that 350ish mark for 1 bedrooms and maybe 2 bedrooms. Studios are so nice price wise but sometimes we may need more space.

 

[pianomanzano]

Chad didn’t show it but I think he was a bit shocked at how low his CCV contract was valued with the instant sale offer. But yeah, even he is beholden to the sponsor.

If you look closely he didn’t choose copper creek from the drop-down, it was in animal kingdom Lodge.

 

[hilltopper152]

Agree with everything. Though, the Poly tower is a low hanging fruit for Disney. I’ll fully believe DVC being bullish if they really invest in another truly unique resort, which they don’t seem interested in. Just refurbs of existing hotels and plain towers.

I have concerns long term on how many rooms they can actually build and support. Boomers will eventually not be around on property as much, statistics show modern generations are more in debt and farther behind then their parents so that means less spending, and population growth is slowing/declining. The market may thin some and trends of vacation habits are already changing. Low hanging fruit and rebuilding of current resorts may be the better plan anyway.

 

[hilltopper152]

This right here! I myself was disappointed in Chad too.

Personally I found them not presenting offers as malpractice and I would be hesitant to sell to them. It leaves a opportunity to sell off the table or even to counter. If they have a instant price they like, be upfront about it and show them that is their line. Also have buyers know the floor they are competing with at least. It is very non fiduciary of a broker I think.

I understand protecting them from nonsense offers if they are firm but they will never know how far away they are from the market if they do not see the otherside at all.

 

[hilltopper152]

I find it rather interesting none of the agents publicly take the perspective of advising sellers (or those considering to sell) to hold off for now given the market conditions. Instead it’s the buyers who are unrealistic.

Supply is up. Demand is declining… price floor was removed. DVC is a non-essential product. Sellers have to accept this reality or wait for that uneducated buyer to find out about resale after talking to a DVC guide for hours on hours.

The real world market is hurting and will get worse. There is nothing saying this ship is turning yet and DVC will take a hit. ROFR will stay away for a bit I think and I also wonder if DVC is interested and watching how this plays out too. They are about to have a lot of points to move and they do not need to get tight on cash. They cannot afford to prop this market up artificially just yet.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I have concerns long term on how many rooms they can actually build and support. Boomers will eventually not be around on property as much, statistics show modern generations are more in debt and farther behind than their parents so that means less spending, and population growth is slowing/declining. The market may thin some and trends of vacation habits are already changing. Low hanging fruit and rebuilding of current resorts may be the better plan anyway.

All the more reasons why I love resorts like AKL, WL, VGC, and AUL. They’re probably never going to build resorts like these ever again

 

[hilltopper152]

I don’t think Disney cares enough about the resale market to try to manipulate it. ROFR is just one tool they use to make a profit by buying low and selling high. The problem right now is that they can’t seem to sell their direct inventory so they don’t need to buy any back through ROFR.

Not sure of the scale but they should care. They sell a product at increasingly high cost and move the sticks with a inflated point chart. They are making breakeven and value harder to justify, they have less deals with it, high interest rates. They made a product where the alternative is resale or do not buy. Resale is just so hard to not justify these days that they are limiting even more potential buyers. It also makes educated direct buyers question how much to buy. I know this a smaller share but still resale value is something that props up price valuation on the front end I think. Emotion and logic mix funny with Disney but math is maybe winning more right now.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I just don't understand brokers that take low offers personally.

Agreed. The lady in that video seemed super annoyed at the end when she was talking about low offers. Like...why does that hurt her? I don't get it. Just say the offer was declined and move on with your life. Geez.

 

[lilsonicfan]

Idk if anyone is looking for points at AUL but this was a contract I saw and made an offer on, but we couldn’t come to terms.

 

[erinchristine318]

Agreed. The lady in that video seemed super annoyed at the end when she was talking about low offers. Like...why does that hurt her? I don't get it. Just say the offer was declined and move on with your life. Geez.

100%. The people that watch those types of shows are your potential customer base - not a smart idea to essentially insult and condescend to the very people you need. I know if I were to ever see her name on any property I was interested in, I would skip right over it.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Not sure of the scale but they should care. They sell a product at increasingly high cost and move the sticks with an inflated point chart. They are making breakeven and value harder to justify, they have less deals with it, high interest rates. They made a product where the alternative is resale or do not buy. Resale is just so hard to not justify these days that they are limiting even more potential buyers. It also makes educated direct buyers question how much to buy. I know this a smaller share but still resale value is something that props up price valuation on the front end I think. Emotion and logic mix funny with Disney but math is maybe winning more right now.

Whether DVC cares about the long term value of resale has been debated over the years on these boards. I used to think that Disney should care but I’ve come to believe that they do not. Yes it’s short sighted. High resale value in turn would help to sell direct contracts. But I think Disney only cares about building new resorts, selling them, and moving onto the next new resort. What happens to these contracts once it leaves their hands is irrelevant. If anything, resale value tanking facilitates Disney to ROFR them for cheap and turn those around to sell direct at sold-out prices.

 

[lilsonicfan]

Agreed. The lady in that video seemed super annoyed at the end when she was talking about low offers. Like...why does that hurt her? I don't get it. Just say the offer was declined and move on with your life. Geez.

I was not impressed with either person in that video although I do note it was live streamed and perhaps came off less polished than if they had recorded and edited it. It was so weird because someone from the same brokerage is in the other video (dvcfan youtube) talking about how there are good deals to be had; that entire video was about the good deals and how sellers should be encouraged by the fact that there are tons of buyers. And that the economy and post-pandemic world may in fact be affecting prices, and of course no ROFR.