ROFR Thread April to June 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

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DISfamCT---$96.88-$16320-160-AKL-DEC-208/22, 82/23, 160/24, - sent 3/29, patiently waiting… (seller pays dues)

You guys have been a great resource in this process. I made well over 20 offers on SSR and AKL and finally got one for what I thought was a good deal.
wow that is great. We found an AKL we liked in terms of points (190) and use year (Mar) which both seemed less common than 160s/200s in other months so we ended up at 115. They barely budged on price. Nice work on that one!
 
ineedavacation33---$120-$21053-160-BLT-Mar-0/22, 240/23, 160/24, 160/25- sent 4/7

A special shout out to the broker at a different company who didn't submit my offer to their clients, then passive aggressively shamed me for my similar offer on a comparable contract by saying that if the price was that low, "he'd buy the contract himself." 😏
 
I find it rather interesting none of the agents publicly take the perspective of advising sellers (or those considering to sell) to hold off for now given the market conditions. Instead it’s the buyers who are unrealistic.

Supply is up. Demand is declining… price floor was removed. DVC is a non-essential product. Sellers have to accept this reality or wait for that uneducated buyer to find out about resale after talking to a DVC guide for hours on hours.
It's interesting though because I really think the lack of ROFR is what is leading to some (not all) of the deals.

Poly hasn't moved much, which is interesting because Disney hasn't really exercised ROFR on poly much in the past anyway.

I wanted to switch use years recently and was debating selling. I decided to put it up and see what happened. I expected to be waiting months for it to sell because letting it go for less than I wanted wouldn't be worth it for me since I still planned to visit Disney anyway, and wasn't interested in taking a loss.

After putting it up for almost $10pp more than recommended by the (excellent) broker, I actually had multiple bids and sold within 24h for more than I expected.

So I guess the market hasn't flatlined, it does depend on the resort/points available/use year/etc.
 
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I find it rather interesting none of the agents publicly take the perspective of advising sellers (or those considering to sell) to hold off for now given the market conditions. Instead it’s the buyers who are unrealistic.

Supply is up. Demand is declining… price floor was removed. DVC is a non-essential product. Sellers have to accept this reality or wait for that uneducated buyer to find out about resale after talking to a DVC guide for hours on hours.
I don’t think brokers would ever advise sellers to hold off. Even if selling low is not in their best interest, selling something is better than selling nothing. Their livelihood depends on contracts moving. I think this specific broker‘s frustration really reflected not people lowballing. But the lack of movement of the contracts because both buyers and sellers are way off on perceived value and the contracts are just sitting. It’s a bit ironic that a company that touts about educating its customers now need uneducated buyers to buy its product and not from the educated ones on this board. How long until they shut this forum down?
 

There are still 2200 contracts listed in the market. That's 35% more than the historic highs, excepting the last 6 months (where it peaked at 2400-2500). Yes, brokers and seller seem to be resisting the continued dive in pricing but absent Disney coming back in with heavy ROFR, it just means contracts will continue to sit and stagnate. If that happens too long, the market will drop again. Without Disney exercising ROFR, I just don't think there's enough demand to balance the amount of sellers.

I don't disagree there's a chance we hit a current bottom, but brokers are already trying to push the average pricing back to what it was a year ago....which in my mind is premature.
I wouldn’t assume that when not if ROFR returns the rate will be either heavy or light. And it appears as if there are many sellers who are sticking to a higher pricing floor who are in no rush to sell. All I’m saying is that it’s a great market for resale buyers, but it’s not going to last forever, and logic to justify it continuing indefinitely is never reliable.
 
Reading thru all the discussion and others post of great deals... I'm just wondering when I will get my confirmation ROFR passed and contract is on its way to closing... (sent 3/31)
 
I wouldn’t assume that when not if ROFR returns the rate will be either heavy or light. And it appears as if there are many sellers who are sticking to a higher pricing floor who are in no rush to sell. All I’m saying is that it’s a great market for resale buyers, but it’s not going to last forever, and logic to justify it continuing indefinitely is never reliable.
Nothing lasts forever but we can also assume that DVC might not keep rising in value forever too. I know that history says different but someone also said that past performance doesn’t dictate future performance. I too believe the market will change with the economic tide. But we might be in a low tide for awhile and it’ll be interesting to see how long sellers can hold out.
 
One of the agents from the board sponsor was on a show talking about unrealistic offers. They said they were receiving a bunch of low offers and that those putting out those offers justified them because of other low offers getting accepted and how it was not the norm and are unicorn deals. Sounded like she calling out this thread lol.
I just watched that show. I' m thinking I might fancy a bit of educating by my new favourite broker.
 
I wouldn’t assume that when not if ROFR returns the rate will be either heavy or light. And it appears as if there are many sellers who are sticking to a higher pricing floor who are in no rush to sell. All I’m saying is that it’s a great market for resale buyers, but it’s not going to last forever, and logic to justify it continuing indefinitely is never reliable.
Let’s talk about why they ROFR in the first place—to turn a profit by re-selling those points direct. But direct sales have been abysmal the last couple of months. Over the past year they bought back almost 200k SSR points (and ROFRing as high as $140pp in the process) but only sold 40k of those points in that same time period. That’s just one resort. Multiply that across all resorts and you can see why they completely stopped ROFRing. They just bought too many points back at too high of a price.

If demand for cash stays were high one could make a case that they could and should ROFR these contracts going for $80-100/pt. But demand isn’t high, otherwise they wouldn’t have 25-30% discounts off rack rate for cash stays at the villas (return of APs is another signal of low overall demand). And I doing think they want to be in the business of renting out their points when they have 3 resorts to sell out and 2 additional ones coming online within the next 2 years. I haven’t even mentioned cost cutting measures they’re trying to implement company wide, but you can’t deny that there is at least some logic as to why no ROFR could last for awhile. Who knows, maybe APs coming back or the new 100pt minimum for new members could shift things, but my money is on the ROFR monster seeing its shadow and hibernating a little bit longer.
 
Does anybody else worry that Disney had some temporary reason to not exercise ROFR (obviously there is some reason temp or perm) and the ROFR monster will come back with a vengeance and buy as much as they can with the depressed values that they themselves created? A little market manipulation--
 
ineedavacation33---$120-$21053-160-BLT-Mar-0/22, 240/23, 160/24, 160/25- sent 4/7

A special shout out to the broker at a different company who didn't submit my offer to their clients, then passive aggressively shamed me for my similar offer on a comparable contract by saying that if the price was that low, "he'd buy the contract himself." 😏
I just don't understand brokers that take low offers personally.
 
Does anybody else worry that Disney had some temporary reason to not exercise ROFR (obviously there is some reason temp or perm) and the ROFR monster will come back with a vengeance and buy as much as they can with the depressed values that they themselves created? A little market manipulation--
I don’t think Disney cares enough about the resale market to try to manipulate it. ROFR is just one tool they use to make a profit by buying low and selling high. The problem right now is that they can’t seem to sell their direct inventory so they don’t need to buy any back through ROFR.
 
It’s a bit ironic that a company that touts about educating its customers now need uneducated buyers to buy its product and not from the educated ones on this board. How long until they shut this forum down?
A new one would become very popular, very quickly. ;)

I just don't understand brokers that take low offers personally.
Me either but they are the ones who have to talk to their insulted/annoyed clients.
They’re also the ones getting paid their commision instead of being frustrated. ;)
 
A new one would become very popular, very quickly. ;)



They’re also the ones getting paid their commision instead of being frustrated. ;)
I truly think their frustration is more with some of their unrealistic sellers rather than savvy buyers, that frustration is just being misdirected. At least that's what one of the brokers I've been working with has voiced to me.
 
I don’t think Disney cares enough about the resale market to try to manipulate it. ROFR is just one tool they use to make a profit by buying low and selling high. The problem right now is that they can’t seem to sell their direct inventory so they don’t need to buy any back through ROFR.
The only thing about this is that for at least 2 properties at WDW (Riviera and VGF) they are in direct competition with resale points, to a degree, and if the delta between resale and direct on those properties is enough, then why would anyone buy direct from DVC?

For instance, if you were purchasing VGF now, would you want to pay $217 pp with maybe a few incentives or more like the mid $150s (based on the past few contracts I've see roll through this thread)? Is a blue card worth $50 per point?
 
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