RoFR back??

[RuntheMouse]

Usually the buyer only pays dues on current points, not on banked or borrowed.

This was our experience. We bought 2 resales with banked points and didn’t pay back dues on either of those.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Usually the buyer only pays dues on current points, not on banked or borrowed.

From what I've seen it's also standard practice to credit dues for any points already used from the current or next year. Probably so they don't have to reflect it in the list price.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Generally, I don't think rofr activity would directly have an impact on how much I'd be willing to pay. But if overall resale prices increase because others are paying more, I'd probably have no choice but to follow if it was something I really wanted...

I'd be more interested in he characteristics of the contracts that were taken at rofr. For example, was any stripped contract taken, or were they all loaded? If they were all loaded, then nobody should pay more for a stripped contract, even if the broker encourages then to do it "because of rofr activity". Similarly, did they take any subsidized contracts, or were they all unsubsidized? Does having prior year banked points on the contract (for which the buyer doesn't typically pay dues) increase the likelihood of a contract being taken?

DVC resale prices are still substantially higher than other timeshare systems. There is no way they can make 4x or 5x consistently from recycling rofr inventory like Marriott does. At current prices, it doesn't really move the needle that much. They also still have plenty of new inventory to sell, with more in the pipeline. So there may be some other common factor driving these decisions.

From analyzing historical data, normalizing the contracts for banked/stripped points doesn't provide any additional insight into what is taken under ROFR and why. I've concluded they have their own priorities that may be highly specific to the contract being taken and aren't public knowledge. Just to caveat, I haven't specifically looked at subsidized vs unsubsidized.

 

[tom1944]

Actually, I have two blue cards.

Just a few weeks ago, I was TOLD that DISNEY WILL NEVER EXERCISE ROFR AGAIN, by the brain trust

Disney has no published formula for ROFR.... that is true....
It is equally true that the only variable a buyer can control is price.....
There is, however, a point where it makes ZERO economic sense for Disney to take a deal.
That number is somewhere above what the current market is trading at.

Unless you are going to start asking the seller unit number.

Congratulations, a contract passed today, well below market!
Someone got lucky!
Are you going to take that chance tomorrow....

I'm a huge supporter of trying to pick up anything with a lowball offer.....
That having been said, don't be shocked when Disney snatches back up

My point has been and will continue to be, regardless of how wild you think it is, Disney will snatch low balls when it is the best for them to do so.

Your best bet to pass ROFR has always been and will continue to be a reasonable offer....

I told my wife we do not qualify for discounts because we purchased resale and she got annoyed because every purchase she made she was given a discount. It was another thing of many that apparently I did not know what I was talking about.

It got so bad that at every meal I decided to increase the tip by the incorrect discount amount so at least I could pass the incorrect discount to someone else.

 

[AstroBlasters]

You want to pay more for 30-50 years to make sure you can use points one month sooner.!?
I gotta say, I'm definitely in the "low ball" club.

I am confused. Why would you pay more for 30-50 years? The dues are the same and that is the majority of the cost of a contract.

I understood the post to be saying that they would pay more on the initial purchase to get the points sooner. I’ve seen people wait for a certain price point and that pushes the purchase into another vacation season (and forcing them to rent or pay cash for the current vacation season).

 

[disneylandtour]

I am confused. Why would you pay more for 30-50 years? The dues are the same and that is the majority of the cost of a contract.

I understood the post to be saying that they would pay more on the initial purchase to get the points sooner. I’ve seen people wait for a certain price point and that pushes the purchase into another vacation season (and forcing them to rent or pay cash for the current vacation season).

I did not write that. But maybe is this what the poster meant. I think a lot of us breakdown the price of a point to a per-year average. So maybe $3.50 per year for the purchase price per point plus $8 per year for membership dues. So $11.50 total per year. (And yes, membership dues go up each year.). But this helps when thinking about the possibility of renting extra points, if you don't use them one year.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I did not write that. But maybe is this what the poster meant. I think a lot of us breakdown the price of a point to a per-year average. So maybe $3.50 per year for the purchase price per point plus $8 per year for membership dues. So $11.50 total per year. (And yes, membership dues go up each year.). But this helps when thinking about the possibility of renting extra points, if you don't use them one year.

Possibly, but if I pay $100pp for a contract and you pay $95pp for a contract 6-months later the following this are true:

1) The dues are the same for the life of the contract. The only difference is a one time upfront hit.
2) I probably got an extra year with my points to enjoy them. (Even if you had the points and banked them into a future year).

My kids are 9 and 13…so the next 5-9 years are much more important to me because I know one or both of them will be with me. After that, there are no guarantees and grandchildren are not a given in today’s society.

So, while trying to get the lowest price matters…. for many people it is part of the equation and not the only equation.

1) will a buyer accept the offer or am I making lowball offers over many months to get a certain price
2) will it pass ROFR,
3) how long will the process take
4) when will I get the points and be able to book a vacation

Of course, there is a big difference between adding on points to grow your total for longer stays or larger accommodations (2BD vs Studio stays) vs getting an initial contract.

 

[disneylandtour]

So, while trying to get the lowest price matters…. for many people it is part of the equation and not the only equation.

1) will a buyer accept the offer or am I making lowball offers over many months to get a certain price
2) will it pass ROFR,
3) how long will the process take
4) when will I get the points and be able to book a vacation

Just from a financial perspective, it probably only matters if you miss a year's worth of points...but....

>> 1) will a buyer accept the offer or am I making lowball offers over many months to get a certain price

This maybe takes a day to hear back. Maybe two. If I don't hear back in two days, I send a polite email to follow up. And if then nothing, I move on. There are hundreds of contracts right now, many of them very similar. If you're on this board, you know what contracts are selling for on the low end, as do brokers. So you can figure out a plan to offer just a little beneath that so you can be countered. This won't work every time. Maybe only 20% of the time. But there are so many contracts right now (minus very small contracts) that moving from one low (but reasonable) offer to the next, shouldn't take a great deal of time and you should fairly soon find a seller who's interested.

>> 2) will it pass ROFR,

This is typically one month--maybe less. On this list, this is probably the only wild card. If you get ROFR-ed, it can set you back. But again, you'd know this, usually, at the one month mark and then start over. So, at most, you lose a month here. (Side note: two weeks ago there was a small wave of ROFRs, but I haven't heard of many since then. Fingers crossed.)

>>. 3) how long will the process take

Again, maybe a month to get closing docs.

4) when will I get the points and be able to book a vacation

About two months total.


Membership perks aside, the resale process can easily save you $100 PP on some resorts. For a 100 point contract, that's $10k.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Just from a financial perspective, it probably only matters if you miss a year's worth of points...but....

>> 1) will a buyer accept the offer or am I making lowball offers over many months to get a certain price

This maybe takes a day to hear back. Maybe two. If I don't hear back in two days, I send a polite email to follow up. And if then nothing, I move on. There are hundreds of contracts right now, many of them very similar. If you're on this board, you know what contracts are selling for on the low end, as do brokers. So you can figure out a plan to offer just a little beneath that so you can be countered. This won't work every time. Maybe only 20% of the time. But there are so many contracts right now (minus very small contracts) that moving from one low (but reasonable) offer to the next, shouldn't take a great deal of time and you should fairly soon find a seller who's interested.

>> 2) will it pass ROFR,

This is typically one month--maybe less. On this list, this is probably the only wild card. If you get ROFR-ed, it can set you back. But again, you'd know this, usually, at the one month mark and then start over. So, at most, you lose a month here. (Side note: two weeks ago there was a small wave of ROFRs, but I haven't heard of many since then. Fingers crossed.)

>>. 3) how long will the process take

Again, maybe a month to get closing docs.

4) when will I get the points and be able to book a vacation

About two months total.


Membership perks aside, the resale process can easily save you $100 PP on some resorts. For a 100 point contract, that's $10k.

I feel like you completely missed my point, but that’s OK.

 

[Chili327]

I did not write that. But maybe is this what the poster meant. I think a lot of us breakdown the price of a point to a per-year average. So maybe $3.50 per year for the purchase price per point plus $8 per year for membership dues. So $11.50 total per year. (And yes, membership dues go up each year.). But this helps when thinking about the possibility of renting extra points, if you don't use them one year.

Yea, this was my thinking. Im not talking about waiting for years for a cheaper pp contract, just not paying extra to get the points a month or 2 sooner.
Meaning i can wait a month or 2 for a better price. Dues would obviously be the same, and so would the use of points.

 

[Cfabar1]

Maybe their sale sold more than they anticipated and they need gfv points.

This is interesting to consider. Maybe they think they can sell the VGF points easily, or maybe they want to be able to sell more of the new points and keep their interest in the "old" part of the association since they need to own a minimum percentage of points. Currently they aren't selling the "old" points, only the new ones, but there's no reason why they couldn't.

 

[Cfabar1]

DVC resale prices are still substantially higher than other timeshare systems. There is no way they can make 4x or 5x consistently from recycling rofr inventory like Marriott does. At current prices, it doesn't really move the needle that much. They also still have plenty of new inventory to sell, with more in the pipeline. So there may be some other common factor driving these decisions.

DVC's calculations must be that they can/will ultimately make more money selling new resorts than the old resorts. Otherwise they, like many other timeshare systems, would have significantly slowed or stopped building entirely.

That could change down the road, but as long as they think it is in their interest to build and expand new, I think there is likely to be some resale value, and I also think that they are unlikely to do a points-washing program - that would hinder them from being able to sell the new resorts as easily.

Eventually, when they decide to not build as many resorts, I think that is when points washing will come out as a way to generate value.

 

[Cyberc1978]

DVC's calculations must be that they can/will ultimately make more money selling new resorts than the old resorts. Otherwise they, like many other timeshare systems, would have significantly slowed or stopped building entirely.

That could change down the road, but as long as they think it is in their interest to build and expand new, I think there is likely to be some resale value, and I also think that they are unlikely to do a points-washing program - that would hinder them from being able to sell the new resorts as easily.

Eventually, when they decide to not build as many resorts, I think that is when points washing will come out as a way to generate value.

I don't know how much land Disney owns but at some point there can't be room for any more resorts. With DeSantis appointees on the board which controls the district Disney might not get the approvals required to continue to build new resorts.

 

[Cfabar1]

I don't know how much land Disney owns but at some point there can't be room for any more resorts. With DeSantis appointees on the board which controls the district Disney might not get the approvals required to continue to build new resorts.

could happen... I think Disney recognizing there's not a need is more likely than the state effectively banning all development at Disney World.

or shifting to literally just selling you points for a hotel room with little to no conversion to rope people into the disney system (i.e. an all star sports dvc that starts at 5 points per night or something along those lines.)

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I don't know how much land Disney owns but at some point there can't be room for any more resorts. With DeSantis appointees on the board which controls the district Disney might not get the approvals required to continue to build new resorts.

I think i have heard in the last 5 years, Disney has developed one 1/3, placed 1/3 in protect conversation, and has 1/3 left that the could potentially play with...... or roughly 16,000 acres .....
I took 50 years to get here.... I think they are good for a while.....

As far as not getting approvals, I'm not sure how just saying "NO" would play out...
Maybe here are the hops you have to jump through .... but not just NO

 

[disneylandtour]

I think i have heard in the last 5 years, Disney has developed one 1/3, placed 1/3 in protect conversation, and has 1/3 left that the could potentially play with...... or roughly 16,000 acres .....
I took 50 years to get here.... I think they are good for a while.....

As far as not getting approvals, I'm not sure how just saying "NO" would play out...
Maybe here are the hops you have to jump through .... but not just NO

A couple of things: before the old (Reedy Creek) board left, they approved the development of multiple hotel areas. So, at least for a while, Disney should be fine. Also, Disney owns about 27k acres as part of the Florida resort, as well as other acres (such as the Disney Nature Preserve) nearby. On those 27k acres, roughly 1/3 are developed, 1/3 are reserved for future development (and can be developed), and 1/3 are reserved for water management and wildlife. Disney can increase the number of acres in the 27k that can be developed to some small extent by, essentially, trading marked preservation acres from the main parcel over to the Nature Preserve. But those water management areas are essential for the resort to function. With this, there's about 10k acres (maybe slightly less) that can be developed. Sprawling cash resorts, like Caribbean Beach, are 200 acres. Sprawling DVC resorts, like SSR, are 65 acres. But Disney recently has been building towers. I'm guessing that the Riviera complex, including parking, is (and this is a guess) around seven to ten acres. Anyway, if Disney is doing towers as opposed to condo-style timeshares, they can build a gazillion of them before they run out of room. How many can they build before they run out of customers is a different question.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

A couple of things: before the old (Reedy Creek) board left, they approved the development of multiple hotel areas. So, at least for a while, Disney should be fine. Also, Disney owns about 27k acres as part of the Florida resort, as well as other acres (such as the Disney Nature Preserve) nearby. On those 27k acres, roughly 1/3 are developed, 1/3 are reserved for future development (and can be developed), and 1/3 are reserved for water management and wildlife. Disney can increase the number of acres in the 27k that can be developed to some small extent by, essentially, trading marked preservation acres from the main parcel over to the Nature Preserve. But those water management areas are essential for the resort to function. With this, there's about 10k acres (maybe slightly less) that can be developed. Sprawling cash resorts, like Caribbean Beach, are 200 acres. Sprawling DVC resorts, like SSR, are 65 acres. But Disney recently has been building towers. I'm guessing that the Riviera complex, including parking, is (and this is a guess) around seven to ten acres. Anyway, if Disney is doing towers as opposed to condo-style timeshares, they can build a gazillion of them before they run out of room. How many can they build before they run out of customers is a different question.

My bad 47 square miles or 30k acres….
Note the premise is still there
Water management and wild life is different than conservation how?

But if it took 50 years to build on the first third I would expect the remaining build able third to be there for a while…..

Disney’s current financial position it not one that I would expect a massive out lay of cash to build up 10000 arches….

As far as the reedy creek deal…..
I wouldn’t bet on it,
Since it is already in dispute,
I wouldn’t be surprised to see an injunction and stop work orders, IF Disney were to try to side step the central Florida thing…..

It would be far easier, and have much better optics to submit a complete and proper build permit to the new board and see how it plays out….

 

[Brian Noble]

DVC's calculations must be that they can/will ultimately make more money selling new resorts than the old resorts.

I am 100% sure of this given current resale valuations. I did an analysis of it here:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/future-of-riveria.3910632/post-64626527

 

[pkrieger2287]

Hey Everyone - Now that a few weeks have passed, I wanted to ask two questions to assist with an upcoming DVC Show on this topic:

1) Why do you think Disney recently bought back several contracts?
2) What do you think Disney's long-term strategy with ROFR should be?

Thanks for your help!

 

[tom1944]

Hey Everyone - Now that a few weeks have passed, I wanted to ask two questions to assist with an upcoming DVC Show on this topic:

1) Why do you think Disney recently bought back several contracts?
2) What do you think Disney's long-term strategy with ROFR should be?

Thanks for your help!

Number 1 I have no idea.

Number 2 they should protect the value of certain resorts so that the spread between direct and resale does not hurt direct sales.

I don’t think that applies to non WDW resorts or 2042 resorts. Saratoga and maybe AKV do not need to be in that pool either.
I also think they cannot leave Riviera on an island as the only restricted resort at WDW