Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[ELMC]

See while you may value the location less the actual location is still better though.

You make a lot of good points that I happen to agree with and I can see that you are trying. But when you take things that are clearly a matter of opinion and state them as fact, such as one thing is "better" than another, then it becomes very hard to have an honest back and forth.

 

[Soap_1984]

Is this going to be updated for November? Aren't the numbers usually out by now for sales?

 

[skier_pete]

Is this going to be updated for November? Aren't the numbers usually out by now for sales?

I haven't seen the numbers posted. I don't think we'll see much difference though, but when I see it posted I'll update

 

[wdrl]

I haven't seen the numbers posted. I don't think we'll see much difference though, but when I see it posted I'll update

The November sales numbers will be published in the next day or so.

 

[Wakey]

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...up-but-overall-numbers-slump-in-november-2019

 

[Spark65]

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...up-but-overall-numbers-slump-in-november-2019

Based solely on that article it looks like DVC itself is doing quite well and for the naysayers Riviera is as well regardless of restrictions.

 

[kboo]

I'm curious - is there anywhere that lists the 4 (out of 8) months that RIV sales topped 100,000 points? Would be interesting to see if that correlated with any announcements, incentives, or price changes...

(Edited: "I'm curious" = I am too lazy to go and look at each month's sales data)

 

[Bing Showei]

I'm curious - is there anywhere that lists the 4 (out of 8) months that RIV sales topped 100,000 points?

January - CCV: 219,00
February - CCV 148,000
March - CCV 135,000
April - CCV 168,000 RIV 59,000
May - CCV 75,000 RIV 97,000
June - CCV 83,000 RIV 114,000
July - CCV 53,000 RIV 109,000
August - CCV 28,000 RIV 105,000
September - CCV 17,000 RIV 93,000 (added 10/10)
October - CCV 13,700 RIV 97,100 (added 11/13)

Uh... it was the first post KBOO.

Not sure there is a correlation. Best prices to date have been the first offering and the ones that just expired on the 16th were second best. I think the model rooms may have provided the summer bump. I imagine December/January numbers will see a resort opening bump accordingly.

 

[kboo]

Uh... it was the first post KBOO.

Not sure there is a correlation. Best prices to date have been the first offering and the ones that just expired on the 16th were second best. I think the model rooms may have provided the summer bump. I imagine December/January numbers will see a resort opening bump accordingly.

I told you I was lazy!!!

I'm saving all my energy to wrangle my kids up at 4am next week to make a mad rush for RotR. I wish I could say I was exaggerating. Maybe we could push it to 5am.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I told you I was lazy!!!

I'm saving all my energy to wrangle my kids up at 4am next week to make a mad rush for RotR. I wish I could say I was exaggerating. Maybe we could push it to 5am.

Did you see that Disney changed things again this morning? People were still let in around 6:30 but no boarding groups issued until the park opening time of 7am. And nothing else open until 7am.

 

[zavandor]

Did you see that Disney changed things again this morning? People were still let in around 6:30 but no boarding groups issued until the park opening time of 7am. And nothing else open until 7am.

Probably they think that opening the park earlier and earlier with all attractions open and boarding groups assigned just fueled a rush to an even earlier opening day after day. They better have stress tested the app, because right at 7am they'll have a few thousands of people trying to get a boarding group at the same time. What could go wrong?

 

[CanadaDisney05]

They better have stress tested the app, because right at 7am they'll have a few thousands of people trying to get a boarding group at the same time. What could go wrong?

Pretty sure a conglomerate like Disney has the IT capabilities to handle something like a few thousand people trying to access their app at the same time

 

[kboo]

Did you see that Disney changed things again this morning? People were still let in around 6:30 but no boarding groups issued until the park opening time of 7am. And nothing else open until 7am.

Oh yes. I am trying to be optimistic...

Luckily my kids are pretty good at getting up early, and we have a few days where our plans are flexible enough to try. I'm really wondering whether that's going to help or hurt when they move to 6am opening 12/26 - 1/1. I'm sure they're trying to help, but whether it ACTUALLY helps is another issue. I'm hoping for masses of first timers without park hoppers during that time....

 

[skier_pete]

OK - I updated the data in the first post.

The good news for Riviera is the sales went up for the last two months.
Bad news: overall sales of CCV and Riviera have been flat at 110,000 points a month for the last three months.
Very good news: Riviera sales are up to 72% of total direct sales. This is the highest percentage to date.
Somewhat bad news: 72% is still way below the historical average of 80-85% for new resorts as percentage of direct sales.

Extremely good news: The resort is actually open to paying customers! This is very, very likely to cause a boost in sales. Also the new year often leads to a boost in sales. Since the actual sales figures are delayed by about a month, I would not expect us to see any "bump" until January sales, but would expect January and February sales figures show the "new resort open" bump.

This could be our first real warning on Riviera - if January/February sales numbers at Riviera remain soft (and I'm going to say that number is less than 150,000 average of the two months) this will be a real indication that Disney has a problem at Riviera. If things soften back up to 100,000 points per month in March-May, then they may have an issue to address. Realize Riviera has 6 million+ points. A 100,000 points per month pace means selling out in 5+ years, which I guarantee is significantly below the target. Not a disaster by any means(a la Aulani's 14 year sell-out), but likely a real concern for those in DVC management. (Poly had 5 million points and sold out in 2.5 years. My guess is they want to see Riviera sold out in 3-4 years, and probably at least 80% sold by the time Reflections goes on sale in late 2022, and at this pace they are looking at maybe 60% sold by that date.

honestly though - I am not sure these numbers are enough for them to change the resale restrictions. They are soft, but not that soft. They may try some more incentive sales first.

 

[mustinjourney]

OK - I updated the data in the first post.

The good news for Riviera is the sales went up for the last two months.
Bad news: overall sales of CCV and Riviera have been flat at 110,000 points a month for the last three months.
Very good news: Riviera sales are up to 72% of total direct sales. This is the highest percentage to date.
Somewhat bad news: 72% is still way below the historical average of 80-85% for new resorts as percentage of direct sales.

Extremely good news: The resort is actually open to paying customers! This is very, very likely to cause a boost in sales. Also the new year often leads to a boost in sales. Since the actual sales figures are delayed by about a month, I would not expect us to see any "bump" until January sales, but would expect January and February sales figures show the "new resort open" bump.

This could be our first real warning on Riviera - if January/February sales numbers at Riviera remain soft (and I'm going to say that number is less than 150,000 average of the two months) this will be a real indication that Disney has a problem at Riviera. If things soften back up to 100,000 points per month in March-May, then they may have an issue to address. Realize Riviera has 6 million+ points. A 100,000 points per month pace means selling out in 5+ years, which I guarantee is significantly below the target. Not a disaster by any means(a la Aulani's 14 year sell-out), but likely a real concern for those in DVC management. (Poly had 5 million points and sold out in 2.5 years. My guess is they want to see Riviera sold out in 3-4 years, and probably at least 80% sold by the time Reflections goes on sale in late 2022, and at this pace they are looking at maybe 60% sold by that date.

honestly though - I am not sure these numbers are enough for them to change the resale restrictions. They are soft, but not that soft. They may try some more incentive sales first.

Two things jump out at me from the www.DVCnews.com chart.

1. Almost all the direct resorts show multipliers of around 100 between # of deeds and points sold.
2. SSR is the leader for direct sales of the sold out resorts.


With respect to point 1 -- clearly, this is likely a result of people (a) wanting the blue card (hence 100 point purchases), (2) having the opportunity to book future resorts (otherwise they'd buy resale); AND (d) wanting to avoid the resale restrictions when they go to sell (otherwise they'd likely buy Riviera to get longer length).

With respect to point 2 -- I'm guessing it's still a function of people trying to buy in as low as possible (SSR and OKW have lowest initial pricing of the WDW resorts) and SSR has some of the lowest MFs of the bunch.

 

[wdrl]

OK - I updated the data in the first post.

The good news for Riviera is the sales went up for the last two months.
Bad news: overall sales of CCV and Riviera have been flat at 110,000 points a month for the last three months.
Very good news: Riviera sales are up to 72% of total direct sales. This is the highest percentage to date.
Somewhat bad news: 72% is still way below the historical average of 80-85% for new resorts as percentage of direct sales.

Extremely good news: The resort is actually open to paying customers! This is very, very likely to cause a boost in sales. Also the new year often leads to a boost in sales. Since the actual sales figures are delayed by about a month, I would not expect us to see any "bump" until January sales, but would expect January and February sales figures show the "new resort open" bump.

This could be our first real warning on Riviera - if January/February sales numbers at Riviera remain soft (and I'm going to say that number is less than 150,000 average of the two months) this will be a real indication that Disney has a problem at Riviera. If things soften back up to 100,000 points per month in March-May, then they may have an issue to address. Realize Riviera has 6 million+ points. A 100,000 points per month pace means selling out in 5+ years, which I guarantee is significantly below the target. Not a disaster by any means(a la Aulani's 14 year sell-out), but likely a real concern for those in DVC management. (Poly had 5 million points and sold out in 2.5 years. My guess is they want to see Riviera sold out in 3-4 years, and probably at least 80% sold by the time Reflections goes on sale in late 2022, and at this pace they are looking at maybe 60% sold by that date.

honestly though - I am not sure these numbers are enough for them to change the resale restrictions. They are soft, but not that soft. They may try some more incentive sales first.

My numbers are somewhat different than yours regarding the Polynesian. It has 3.9 million points and it took about 36 months to sell out. It averaged about 107,000 points a month during its marketing period.

Copper Creek sold its 3.3 million points in about 27 months.

Its still too early for me to speculate about the Riviera's sales future. Actually, I have minimal interest in doing so. Keep in mind that unsold Riviera inventory is not like perishable fruit. Whatever Disney doesn't sell as DVC inventory can still be sold as cash inventory. Over nine-plus years, Disney has only declared about 55% or so of Aulani's DVC component for the DVC, but that doesn't mean that 45% of Aulani is sitting vacant and not generating revenue for Disney.

Maybe in the days of OKW, VB, BWV, or BCV the DVD model was to build, sell out, and move on. But perhaps that business model has been tweaked, tinkered with, modified. Today, DVD might be quite willing to build, sell and generate rental revenue from inventory it doesn't sell.

I tell myself that no matter how much data I glean from the internet, I'm still on the outside looking in. I'm not privy to Disney's operational mindset or goals.

 

[Soap_1984]

Isn't riviera a dedicated resort though? I would assume they'd want to sell out more than 55%; the market for $800 a night rooms is not exactly booming I don't think. Maybe things have improved but wasn't grand floridian empty for a couple months on the non dvc side?

They want to sell it as fast as possible. I can't figure riviera out personally from a financial standpoint, but so far the sales look fine. If they stay this level I'm sure dvc will be disappointed, but considering it hasn't opened until this week I'm sure they aren't panicking. I assume sales will be a lot better for the next six months.

 

[wdrl]

Isn't riviera a dedicated resort though? I would assume they'd want to sell out more than 55%; the market for $800 a night rooms is not exactly booming I don't think. Maybe things have improved but wasn't grand floridian empty for a couple months on the non dvc side?

They want to sell it as fast as possible. I can't figure riviera out personally from a financial standpoint, but so far the sales look fine. If they stay this level I'm sure dvc will be disappointed, but considering it hasn't opened until this week I'm sure they aren't panicking. I assume sales will be a lot better for the next six months.

True, when fully declared the Riviera will be all DVC with no hotel rooms. However, Disney controls all inventory that is undeclared, as well as all declared inventory that is unsold to the general public. Currently, 71% of the resort is undeclared, which means that Disney can do what it wants with that inventory.

Disney might prefer to sell 98% of the Riviera to the general public within the next 24 months. But its not the end of the world if that goal isn't reached. Whatever is not sold to DVC members can be sent to Central Reservation to be rented out as cash reservations. I don't know the first thing about the financial operations of a resort like the Riviera, but I highly doubt that the resort has to be fully occupied on the cash reservation side for the Riviera to be profitable.

 

[Sandisw]

Isn't riviera a dedicated resort though? I would assume they'd want to sell out more than 55%; the market for $800 a night rooms is not exactly booming I don't think. Maybe things have improved but wasn't grand floridian empty for a couple months on the non dvc side?

They want to sell it as fast as possible. I can't figure riviera out personally from a financial standpoint, but so far the sales look fine. If they stay this level I'm sure dvc will be disappointed, but considering it hasn't opened until this week I'm sure they aren't panicking. I assume sales will be a lot better for the next six months.

When I went to see the resort today, it was very busy. One of the CMs there told me that the resort was ”almost fully booked.”..whatever that means for them,

But they did offer that 40% off discount for cash stays and to be honest, if they want to fill the rooms not yet declared into DVC, that is a good way to do it.

 

[skier_pete]

True, when fully declared the Riviera will be all DVC with no hotel rooms. However, Disney controls all inventory that is undeclared, as well as all declared inventory that is unsold to the general public. Currently, 71% of the resort is undeclared, which means that Disney can do what it wants with that inventory.

Disney might prefer to sell 98% of the Riviera to the general public within the next 24 months. But its not the end of the world if that goal isn't reached. Whatever is not sold to DVC members can be sent to Central Reservation to be rented out as cash reservations. I don't know the first thing about the financial operations of a resort like the Riviera, but I highly doubt that the resort has to be fully occupied on the cash reservation side for the Riviera to be profitable.

I agree with this. We really don't know their mindset on this. Maybe the high point cost has them happy with 100,000 points per month. It's really just wait and see. I seriously doubt that they want this resort to take 5 years to sell out. The fact that there offering 40% off room rates also says they aren't exactly.sold out at the resort either.