Riviera Resale Price

[hglenn]

I have to admit I was totally off on my predictions regarding BCV. I anticipated by 2021/22 that resale prices would plummet to the 120/130 range given the 20 years of useful life but I guess the one variable I didn’t account for was the irrationalness of the consumer. The fact that there are STILL people buying direct BCV points at over $200 a point is lunacy. Maybe the upcoming recession will be the catalyst to bring BCV points back to a fair market value?

We just bought BWV for $125 pp. They are definitely coming down, however, just prior to ours passing Disney was taking them in ROFR for $140! Timing is everything... And, BWV is $230 pp direct!

 

[CLE2WDW]

We just bought BWV for $125 pp. They are definitely coming down, however, just prior to ours passing Disney was taking them in ROFR for $140! Timing is everything... And, BWV is $230 pp direct!

That’s a phenomenal value. I’ve never really understood why BCV sells as such a drastic premium compared to BWV. The resort locations are almost identical and the amenities are very similar. Congrats on your recent purchase.

 

[Madame]

That’s a phenomenal value. I’ve never really understood why BCV sells as such a drastic premium compared to BWV. The resort locations are almost identical and the amenities are very similar. Congrats on your recent purchase.

BCV is much smaller, making it more difficult to book without HR points. It also has Stormalong which is a big draw (not us, we own BCV and use the DVC pool almost exclusively) for many.

 

[havoc315]

I have to admit I was totally off on my predictions regarding BCV. I anticipated by 2021/22 that resale prices would plummet to the 120/130 range given the 20 years of useful life but I guess the one variable I didn’t account for was the irrationalness of the consumer. The fact that there are STILL people buying direct BCV points at over $200 a point is lunacy. Maybe the upcoming recession will be the catalyst to bring BCV points back to a fair market value?

The price will plummet at some point, certainly within 10 years.
I guess there are enough buyers who don't really do the math, who simply are still looking at it like "20 years is a long time!" (Though it's not even 20 years at this point, it's closer to 19).
No later than the 10-year mark, the math will be impossible for anyone to ignore. (Putting aside inflation, so in 2022 dollars, it would be impossible for anyone to rationalize more than about $90-100 per point once there are under 10 years left, and basically dropping $10 per year).

 

[Stargazer65]

I guess I don't understand the concept when people say that "Riviera resale price is holding up surprisingly well". It's a 2070 resort, but it's cheaper resale than any of the 2060 resorts. Somebody in the ROFR thread has been getting it at sub-120 prices. What does "not holding up well" look like?

 

[BeachClub2014]

I guess I don't understand the concept when people say that "Riviera resale price is holding up surprisingly well". It's a 2070 resort, but it's cheaper resale than any of the 2060 resorts. Somebody in the ROFR thread has been getting it at sub-120 prices. What does "not holding up well" look like?

I think this illustrates that RIV resales are in line with the other resorts, so far anyway. There are, of course, outliers. And if you factor in the potential decrease in direct price with incentives, the resale gap closes even further.

Below is a chart comparing the DVC Resale Market prices to Direct Resale prices:

Resort	Resale (Based on May ’22 Sales)	Direct* (Disney Vacation Development)	Difference Per Point (Direct – Resale)	Percentage Savings with Resale
Animal Kingdom	$138	$200	$62	31%
Aulani	$121	$207	$86	42%
Bay Lake Tower	$166	$245	$79	32%
Beach Club	$172	$265	$93	35%
Boardwalk	$149	$230	$81	35%
Boulder Ridge	$118	$190	$72	38%
Copper Creek	$165	$225	$60	27%
Grand Californian	$275	$310	$35	11%
Grand Floridian	$176	$207	$31	15%
Hilton Head	$87	$155	$68	44%
Old Key West	$119	$200	$81	41%
Polynesian	$167	$250	$83	33%
Riviera Resort	$145	$207	$62	30%
Saratoga Springs	$130	$200	$70	35%
Vero Beach	$76	$140	$64	46%

 

[Sandisw]

I guess I don't understand the concept when people say that "Riviera resale price is holding up surprisingly well". It's a 2070 resort, but it's cheaper resale than any of the 2060 resorts. Somebody in the ROFR thread has been getting it at sub-120 prices. What does "not holding up well" look like?

I think many of us predicted that it would never command more than $100 or so on resale market given it’s a different product.

While there have been outliers, many have been paying $130 to $150/point for a contract good only one place.

So, in comparison to what people paid when it went on sale and getting those average prices, the drop isn’t as bad and is close to what most resorts see within the first few years compared to direct.

And, let’s be honest..SSR and AKV are going higher now because of ROFR too.

But Poly and CCV close to it and they can trade everywhere. So one would expect it to a much larger spread between those and RIV.

 

[BeachClub2014]

If I were a betting person, I would bet that resale prices for most resorts (including RIV) will pull downwards in the coming months due to the state of the overall economy. I think the idea of converting assets to cash, even at a discount, will resonate with many owners.

 

[Stargazer65]

I think this illustrates that RIV resales are in line with the other resorts, so far anyway. There are, of course, outliers. And if you factor in the potential decrease in direct price with incentives, the resale gap closes even further.

Thanks for the reference info.

While there have been outliers, many have been paying $130 to $150/point for a contract good only one place.

But how many VGF contracts have been sold in that price range? I don't think any.

The average price of VGF is over 30 points higher, and you never see VGF outliers where some contracts sell 90+ points lower than direct. I would think they should be at least similar in resale price, but they are not even close.

It sounds like when you say Riviera resale price is holding up well, you are baking the restrictions into your expectations. Which is fine. However, I do think the prices would be in line with VGF if it weren't restricted.

 

[Sandisw]

Thanks for the reference info.


But how many VGF contracts have been sold in that price range? I don't think any.

The average price of VGF is over 30 points higher, and you never see VGF outliers where some contracts sell 90+ points lower than direct. I would think they should be at least similar in resale price, but they are not even close.

It sounds like when you say Riviera resale price is holding up well, you are baking the restrictions into your expectations. Which is fine. However, I do think the prices would be in line with VGF if it weren't restricted.

VGF was easily had in the $150s 5 years ago on average.

People are now paying in the $160s because there is no ROFR as it’s back in active sales.

Of course it might sell for more without them but people have been very doom and gloom..myself included 3 years ago..that if you buy you will lose your shirt if you have to sell unexpectedly. And so far, that’s not happening

So, being it is restricted to RIV, people are still choosing to buy it over the other resorts in the similar price range because they want to stay there.

In that regard, it is holding its own in todays market against products that can be used at all O14 resorts.

 

[havoc315]

I guess I don't understand the concept when people say that "Riviera resale price is holding up surprisingly well". It's a 2070 resort, but it's cheaper resale than any of the 2060 resorts. Somebody in the ROFR thread has been getting it at sub-120 prices. What does "not holding up well" look like?

"Holding up" is when it is 65-70% of the direct price. As the direct price increases, the re-sale price increases.

Arguably, Vero Beach, Hilton Head, and Aulani are the resorts not holding up.

Look at it this way -- When you buy a new car, 30% of the value disappears the moment you drive it off the lot. Same with DVC -- if ONLY 30% of the value is disappearing, then you're doing great. If 40%+ of the value is disappearing compare dot direct, not so great.
Yes, RIV is cheaper than the other 2060+ resorts -- DIRECT and RESALE.
Compare it to BLT -- Resale at RIV is about $20 cheaper than BLT. But direct, RIV is about $50+ cheaper than BLT.
Thus, RIV re-sale is holding up BETTER than BLT.

 

[Stargazer65]

VGF was easily had in the $150s 5 years ago on average.

People are now paying in the $160s because there is no ROFR as it’s back in active sales.

5 years ago seems like the olden days. Pre-covid, pre-inflation...I can't even process a comparison.

I bought BLT at 120 direct 12 years ago, I don't know what resale was going for. Now it's 166 resale. I could break even on the buy in and half my dues combined if I sold it. But that's not a good comparison with Riviera because it's a sold out resort, ROFR and all that...

I'm interested to see how things pan out with Riviera in another ten years after it's sold out and Disney possibly exercises ROFR.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I'm interested to see how things pan out with Riviera in another ten years after it's sold out and Disney possibly exercises ROFR.

Me too!

 

[havoc315]

The average price of VGF is over 30 points higher, and you never see VGF outliers where some contracts sell 90+ points lower than direct. I would think they should be at least similar in resale price, but they are not even close.

Until a couple months ago, VGF direct was over $250 per point.
With the introduction of incentivized direct pricing for VGF, re-sale prices have dropped massively. (why would anyone pay $190 resale when they can pay $200 direct?)

As you can see here:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-may-2022/

Overnight, the resale prices at VGF dropped from the $190's to the $170's.
VGF direct is still a bit more expensive than RIV direct. So makes sense that VGF re-sale will remain a little higher than RIV re-sale.

There is about a $20 per point difference now in re-sale between VGF and RIV.
And there are definitely outliers in VGF, increasingly:

$152 per point for VGF:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...uctions-formatting-tool.3878357/post-64024927

That's basically the same as RIV resale.

It sounds like when you say Riviera resale price is holding up well, you are baking the restrictions into your expectations. Which is fine. However, I do think the prices would be in line with VGF if it weren't restricted.

 

[Sandisw]

5 years ago seems like the olden days. Pre-covid, pre-inflation...I can't even process a comparison.

I bought BLT at 120 direct 12 years ago, I don't know what resale was going for. Now it's 166 resale. I could break even on the buy in and half my dues combined if I sold it. But that's not a good comparison with Riviera because it's a sold out resort, ROFR and all that...

I'm interested to see how things pan out with Riviera in another ten years after it's sold out and Disney possibly exercises ROFR.

It will be interesting. The key IMO will be if DVD stays with restrictions. If the new Poly tower and VDH have them, then RIV may not drop as fast if it is no longer the only resort that is so restricted.

Of course, DVC has always appreciated in value...for the most part...and the chances of that happening with RIV are definitely less than other places...it may never come to pass..

For the time being, anyone needing to sell is seeing a typical drop in resale price against the cost of direct so that "it will fall off the cliff" idea has just not yet happened....and I think that there are enough people out there who love the resort enough that its worth it in the end to own there. Plus, I still believe that the majority of resale owners are probably people like me who have other points that can be used elsewhere...its also why I will only buy direct points from now own because those can be used, along with my resale RIV points, to ensure I never end up with stray RIV points.

 

[EYL]

BCV/BWV re-sale prices will start declining in the near future, hitting 0 by the end of 2041.

BCV/BWV will definitely hit 0 by the end of 2041 for re-sale. But I wonder how much a confirmed rental in 2041 would go for. I wonder if "this is your last chance to stay at BCV/BWV" will increase the rental demand. In 19 years...$50/point to rent? Maybe $75/point for Christmas/New Years?

 

[dvc lover 1970]

If you want RIV resale I would wait. The market is crashing. I think prices will come down.

 

[bryaalre]

One thing that has been helping Riviera resale at the moment is that they have substantially less inventory on the resale market compared to most resorts.

After doing some math and using dvc market, most resorts have about 0.50% of their total points up for resale. Whereas Riviera is currently only at 0.28% of their current direct sold points available on the resale market. So one would expect Riviera to see double the points than what is currently available on resale.

This is most likely due to the fact that most people probably have just purchased their Riviera contract and so won't sell within a year or 2 of purchase.

The next newest resort, Copper Creek, currently has 0.54% or 18K of the resorts total 3.3M points on the resale market. With this resort being only 5 years old and having the normal 0.5%-0.6% points available, I expect Riviera will also follow suit and reach the 0.5% points by the end of 2023.

For reference for Disney World resorts:

RIV - 0.28%
VGF - 0.38%
BLT - 0.43%
SSR - 0.45%
AKV - 0.50%
CCV - 0.54%
BWV - 0.54%
BRV - 0.58%
PVB - 0.59%
OWK - 0.59%
BCV - 0.62%

Total Disney World - 0.50%

Other Resorts:

HH - 0.40%
AUL - 0.43%
VGC - 0.91%
VB - 0.99%

 

[havoc315]

BCV/BWV will definitely hit 0 by the end of 2041 for re-sale. But I wonder how much a confirmed rental in 2041 would go for. I wonder if "this is your last chance to stay at BCV/BWV" will increase the rental demand. In 19 years...$50/point to rent? Maybe $75/point for Christmas/New Years?

The rental rate is always relative to the cash room rate. If cash rooms are going for $500, I don't think people will suddenly pay $1,000 for a studio to get the "last" chance to stay in a similar room but with a kitchenette. And it won't really be the last chance -- In all likelihood, in 2042 or 2043, the resort will sell new furbished contracts.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

BCV is much smaller, making it more difficult to book without HR points.

Yes. While it’s not the only factor, I think people severely underestimate the degree to which resort size in points is correlated to resale pricing. It’s two reasons, the one you mention of course, but then also this:

Say there’s the same number of people interested in BCV as BWV, irrespective of price; with ~half as many points, BCV has half as many contracts going on the market at any given time, and therefore BCV has twice as much competition for each contract. That drives prices up.

This is why I think the long term VGF prices are going to be substantially negatively impacted by the new rooms (relative to the other resorts), although I think it will be ~2027 until we see meaningful impact from it.