Riviera 50 pointer cleared ROFR at $121

[sethschroeder]

True, but from the buyers perspective in the current market (just using the round numbers noted above), a CC buyer has a choice of buying direct at $220 or saving $60 buying resale. A Riviera buyer has a choice of buying direct at $188 or saving $67 buying resale. Shockingly similar given the nasty restrictions at Riviera.

The first CCV contracts on the ROFR threads were:
$135/point - July '18
$145/point - July '18
$140/point - Dec '18

You would need to go back and look but I am not sure CCV ever sold for $121/point and that is 2-3 years ago so in theory RIV should be selling for more not less.

 

[JETSDAD]

I'm not trying to justify Riviera. My opinion is that I would have thought the resale restrictions would have hurt the resale market much more than it appears to have based on the small sample size. The ~$60 difference between resale and direct seems to be right on par with the majority of other resorts direct vs resale prices.

Large CCV contracts are selling for more than a small Riviera contract. There is a greater spread with Riviera than there is with CCV when comparing to the actual price that it was sold at, not the 'let's bump it way up now that it's sold and we want to push everyone to current resorts' price. A quick look shows a 50 point CCV contract listed at $160 where larger ones are listed around $145-150. If that same spread holds true you're looking at Riviera around $110/pt for a non-small contract which is lower than CCV has sold at. Obviously we're playing around with a very small sample size right now and we'll see what happens over time.

 

[Sandisw]

While I agree with that, if I went and bought SSR, OKW, AKL, PVB, VGF or pretty much any other resort direct, and then threw it on the resale market, I would likely see a similar loss.

A $67 loss (at the maximum), IMO doesn't seem too bad considering as @DebbieB mentioned that 50 points won't get much at Riviera, and since they are resale points, they cannot be used at any other resort. While I understand other's have different situations than myself, I personally don't know if I would take that contract if it was given to me for free. Without owning other Riviera points, I would be locked into those maintenance fees for 50 years on a contract that is nearly unusable for more than a couple of nights per year. It seems like the market for those points would have to be A) someone who owns more Riviera points or B) a local who is just looking for a weekend getaway once per year or C) Someone who comes down to WDW once every 3 years for 5 or 6 nights and REALLY loves Riveiera.

I agree that the loss is in line with buying direct and the fact the buyer took a trip on these points leads me to believe something else is at play,

I bought RIV points to replace my BWV points, so in my case, the resale value wasnt an issue, because the way I saw it, what I own now vs, before is about the same,

I do wonder if the person who bought is a RIV owner because if they are, they it Would make sense to buy resale. Those get used first, and then they have direct points to trade out.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

The first CCV contracts on the ROFR threads were:
$135/point - July '18
$145/point - July '18
$140/point - Dec '18

You would need to go back and look but I am not sure CCV ever sold for $121/point and that is 2-3 years ago so in theory RIV should be selling for more not less.

I don't think anyone will make the argument that RIV SHOULD see the exact same difference between direct and resale. We all agree that the resale product is a diminished product due to the restrictions. I think the surprising thing is that the floor hasn't completely dropped underneath. At the beginning, I would have thought these would be sold for somewhere between the $60 to $80 range given the restrictions. The fact that for someone sitting down today and looking at all of the options, the difference between RIV direct and resale is similar to that of almost every resort is the shocking thing.

Large CCV contracts are selling for more than a small Riviera contract. There is a greater spread with Riviera than there is with CCV when comparing to the actual price that it was sold at, not the 'let's bump it way up now that it's sold and we want to push everyone to current resorts' price. A quick look shows a 50 point CCV contract listed at $160 where larger ones are listed around $145-150. If that same spread holds true you're looking at Riviera around $110/pt for a non-small contract which is lower than CCV has sold at. Obviously we're playing around with a very small sample size right now and we'll see what happens over time.

I think as was stated above, that the small contract size actually hurts the value here. The market for a small resale contract at Riviera is simply too small to drive up the price. Because the contract is restricted to just use at Riviera, and the point charts are fairly high, it can really only be used either as a weekend getaway, as a once every 3 year 5 to 6 day trip, or a small add-on for someone who already has Riviera points (who likely already bought the Riviera points they need very recently). I think a larger contract would actually sell for more than a small one, atleast in the short term.

I do wonder if the person who bought is a RIV owner because if they are, they it Would make sense to buy resale. Those get used first, and then they have direct points to trade out.

This is really the only thing that makes sense to me on the surface. The amount of people in that specific situation has to be really small at this point, which means the market price would have to be low.

 

[Sandisw]

The first CCV contracts on the ROFR threads were:
$135/point - July '18
$145/point - July '18
$140/point - Dec '18

You would need to go back and look but I am not sure CCV ever sold for $121/point and that is 2-3 years ago so in theory RIV should be selling for more not less.

The only thing I will add is that these were sold a year after it was open. The RIV contracts have all been sold before, which means a desperate seller, who may have priced thst low for a reason...we just don’t know.

Not to say that it isn’t a sign that resale restrictions won’t keep selling low...I believe it will..but that comparing price a year in, when one has booking information..,studios being difficult at a CCV...played a role, I am guessing in the resale market,

IMO, it is way to early to make comparisons against other resorts for where RIvera will settle with those restrictions.

 

[SG131]

I agree that the loss is in line with buying direct and the fact the buyer took a trip on these points leads me to believe something else is at play,

I bought RIV points to replace my BWV points, so in my case, the resale value wasnt an issue, because the way I saw it, what I own now vs, before is about the same,

I do wonder if the person who bought is a RIV owner because if they are, they it Would make sense to buy resale. Those get used first, and then they have direct points to trade out.

I think this was their first Riv purchase. The person that purchased said they owned something like 380 points, all small contracts and that is their preference. They bought a 25 point beach club just recently as well.

 

[Sandisw]

Large CCV contracts are selling for more than a small Riviera contract. There is a greater spread with Riviera than there is with CCV when comparing to the actual price that it was sold at, not the 'let's bump it way up now that it's sold and we want to push everyone to current resorts' price. A quick look shows a 50 point CCV contract listed at $160 where larger ones are listed around $145-150. If that same spread holds true you're looking at Riviera around $110/pt for a non-small contract which is lower than CCV has sold at. Obviously we're playing around with a very small sample size right now and we'll see what happens over time.

Resort, though, plays a role and since Rivera isn’t open yet, I think you can’t compare what people are willing to pay.

But, any direct buyer today, who has to sell in less than a year, regardless of resort they buy from Disney, is going to take a similar $ amount of a hit as a RIVera buyer who has to sell based on the current market,

 

[sethschroeder]

IMO, it is way to early to make comparisons against other resorts for where RIvera will settle with those restrictions.

I am not assuming anything on where price may settle eventually. I can state for whatever combination of reasons the price on that contract is lower than I ever saw for CCV (correct me if I am wrong).

I am specifically commenting to someone who was trying to call out the price difference between CCV sold out price and current market. It was to point out that when CCV was actively being sold what those first contracts sold for (although no doubt there are ones way before the ROFR thread but its the best datasource I have).

 

[Pyotr]

While I agree with that, if I went and bought SSR, OKW, AKL, PVB, VGF or pretty much any other resort direct, and then threw it on the resale market, I would likely see a similar loss.

A $67 loss (at the maximum), IMO doesn't seem too bad considering as @DebbieB mentioned that 50 points won't get much at Riviera, and since they are resale points, they cannot be used at any other resort. While I understand other's have different situations than myself, I personally don't know if I would take that contract if it was given to me for free. Without owning other Riviera points, I would be locked into those maintenance fees for 50 years on a contract that is nearly unusable for more than a couple of nights per year. It seems like the market for those points would have to be A) someone who owns more Riviera points or B) a local who is just looking for a weekend getaway once per year or C) Someone who comes down to WDW once every 3 years for 5 or 6 nights and REALLY loves Riveiera.

I would fall into the B category. I live 100 miles away and would love a small 50 point contract for a Food and Wine weekend with my wife. $121 a point seems reasonable too me. We just have too many expenses to add on at this moment.

 

[DVCjj]

CanadaDisney05......(I'm so bad at quoting in a reply...it never works for me).

I think you could add a 5) people who LIKE split stays.

We always do split stays and actually booked Riviera at DVC discount for several nights for next month. The thing I would worry about buying a restricted 50 points contract is using the exact number so as not to HAVE to carry over to next year or even run out of points and buying one time UY points that wouldn't be available til 7 months out. There certainly won't be studios available at 7 months in my estimation.

After riding the skyliner several times last month and realizing it's steps away from RR's front door plus loving the Quick Serve menu I just saw, RR is very desirable to me suddenly. I'm old and buying another contract is a huge decision aside from the restriction situation but against all odds, I'm slowly realizing that RR will be the big deal that Disney hopes...even with the restrictions.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

No thanks even at $121 a point. Not until they lift restrictions.

 

[RivShore]

The first CCV contracts on the ROFR threads were:
$135/point - July '18
$145/point - July '18
$140/point - Dec '18

You would need to go back and look but I am not sure CCV ever sold for $121/point and that is 2-3 years ago so in theory RIV should be selling for more not less.

As someone mentioned, the data set is so small on Riviera that's its probably not really useful to dig into the numbers and assume any kind of trends...but since it's a pleasantly quiet Friday for me...lets look at the best case CCV resale you mentioned. At $145 (assuming it was selling for $188 direct, can anyone confirm?), it sold at a 23% discount while this RIV sold at a 36% discount so a 13% hit for some reason - could be resale restrictions, could be that it's an unknown and unseen resort except for pictures, could be a different timeshare economic environment from a year and a half ago, could be the high MF's, could be the high point charts, etc. (The point being there are many factors with no one black and white answer, just a lot of grey.)

Whatever the case, I think we all expected the restrictions to have a much bigger impact on the resale price. Again though, we need more time to see where it really settles.

 

[Sandisw]

As someone mentioned, the data set is so small on Riviera that's its probably not really useful to dig into the numbers and assume any kind of trends...but since it's a pleasantly quiet Friday for me...lets look at the best case CCV resale you mentioned. At $145 (assuming it was selling for $188 direct, can anyone confirm?), it sold at a 23% discount while this RIV sold at a 36% discount so a 13% hit for some reason - could be resale restrictions, could be that it's an unknown and unseen resort except for pictures, could be a different timeshare economic environment from a year and a half ago, could be the high MF's, could be the high point charts, etc. (The point being there are many factors with no one black and white answer, just a lot of grey.)

Whatever the case, I think we all expected the restrictions to have a much bigger impact on the resale price. Again though, we need more time to see where it really settles.

You said it much better. This was what I was alluding to. The fact that a few RIV owners are selling before it even opens, leads me to the conclusion that something else in life is forcing this, which could play a big role in the lower price they are willing to sell for,

If someone paid cash, assuming full purchase price, it’s about a $4000 loss On this contract. However, it still puts $5k back in their pocket and if a financial situation hit that forced the sale, that is a lot of money.

 

[Sandisw]

I am not assuming anything on where price may settle eventually. I can state for whatever combination of reasons the price on that contract is lower than I ever saw for CCV (correct me if I am wrong).

I am specifically commenting to someone who was trying to call out the price difference between CCV sold out price and current market. It was to point out that when CCV was actively being sold what those first contracts sold for (although no doubt there are ones way before the ROFR thread but its the best datasource I have).

I understand but unless you can find contracts that sold prior to the resort opening, I dont think you can even compare. Just too many variables in place.

Now, if in 6 months, you are still seeing the resale contracts showing up and selling for these prices, then yeah, I think it’s a bad sign.

Even as a RIV owner, I do think these contracts will have a depressed resale value and one buying resale will be a much smaller select of buyers,

Just too early to say anything other than we know a few owners have accepted less and took a loss.

 

[jarestel]

I would agree that attempting to read too much into the tea leaves at this point (before the resort has even opened) is a murky proposition at best. But as with actual tea leaves, people tend to see what they want to see.

The resale price for the contract is based more on what the seller is willing to take, not necessarily what the buyer is willing to shell out. So IMO, a financially sound seller who simply changed their mind wouldn't need to entertain money losing offers at this juncture since renting points for a year or two before selling a contract would go a long way towards the break even point while someone in trouble would obviously not have that luxury.

Contracts on the market at this period in time are probably outliers anyway and not true indicators of actual resale value.

 

[Minniesgal]

Wow thats way high didn't expect that

 

[Minniesgal]

Wow thats way high didn't expect that

 

[Heather07438]

It seems like the market for those points would have to be A) someone who owns more Riviera points or B) a local who is just looking for a weekend getaway once per year or C) Someone who comes down to WDW once every 3 years for 5 or 6 nights and REALLY loves Riveiera.

Or doing a split stay.

50pts isn't much but owning RIV gives best access to tower rooms. Alternating trip years could squeeze out a week stay.

 

[RivShore]

The first CCV contracts on the ROFR threads were:
$135/point - July '18
$145/point - July '18
$140/point - Dec '18

You would need to go back and look but I am not sure CCV ever sold for $121/point and that is 2-3 years ago so in theory RIV should be selling for more not less.

As someone mentioned, the data set is so small on Riviera that's its probably not really useful to dig into the numbers and assume any kind of trends...but since it's a pleasantly quiet Friday for me...lets look at the best case CCV resale you mentioned. At $145 (assuming it was selling for $188 direct, can anyone confirm?), it sold at a 23% discount while this RIV sold at a 36% discount so a 13% hit for some reason - could be resale restrictions, could be that it's an unknown and unseen resort except for pictures, could be a different timeshare economic environment from a year and a half ago, could be the high MF's, could be the high point charts, etc. (The point being there are many factors with no one black and white answer, just a lot of grey.)

Whatever the case, I think we all expected the restrictions to have a much bigger impact on the resale price. Again though, we need more time to see where it really settles.

Just thought of another factor to further muddy the waters - the sales you noted for CCV were pre-L14 restrictions so we're comparing fully unrestricted points to fully restricted (RIV only) points. So two very different products selling at relatively close prices. Really curious to see where things stand in 6 to 12 months.

 

[Jenniebee]

At the beginning, I would have thought these would be sold for somewhere between the $60 to $80 range given the restrictions. The fact that for someone sitting down today and looking at all of the options, the difference between RIV direct and resale is similar to that of almost every resort is the shocking thing.

I think it will be a lot different once there are dozens of Riviera contracts listed for sale on the resale market. Right now seeing one pop up is few and far between, so it's rare and therefore scarce. Once there are many of them, I think we will see the resale price drop even lower. It will have to in order to be competitive or viable against what else is for sale out there. In the $120-$130pp range why would anyone buy it over L14 resales that are cheaper and have more booking flexibility? Over time the only advantage to buying RIV will be the cheaper price. I think it will eventually net out to be similar to VB, low buy in, high MF, and a disconnection from the rest of the network.