Riviera 50 pointer cleared ROFR at $121

[sethschroeder]

Just thought of another factor to further muddy the waters - the sales you noted for CCV were pre-L14 restrictions so we're comparing fully unrestricted points to fully restricted (RIV only) points. So two very different products selling at relatively close prices. Really curious to see where things stand in 6 to 12 months.

That's the whole point..... That's why many of us think RIV will be depressed in the resale market. I also wouldn't say its "relatively close". I would fully expect RIV to be more expensive right now than CCV by a fair margin. Price increases across the board since 2017, on the skyliner, only "long term" option in the Epcot area (CCV had Poly and GFV both launch before it with much better access to MK).

Everything that RIV has in its favor over CCV it shouldn't be close IMO. That being said I personally am not a fan of CCV or the new Reflections, I know others love it more.

 

[Heather07438]

I think it will be a lot different once there are dozens of Riviera contracts listed for sale on the resale market. Right now seeing one pop up is few and far between, so it's rare and therefore scarce. Once there are many of them, I think we will see the resale price drop even lower. It will have to in order to be competitive or viable against what else is for sale out there. In the $120-$130pp range why would anyone buy it over L14 resales that are cheaper and have more booking flexibility? Over time the only advantage to buying RIV will be the cheaper price. I think it will eventually net out to be similar to VB, low buy in, high MF, and a disconnection from the rest of the network.

Yeah, not enough examples yet.
With not much competition right now, it only took one interested buyer to sell.

 

[eMoneyBug]

Mortimar buy all you can at $85, but Randolph with DVC Disneyland cropping up shouldn't we wait, just do what I say.

 

[Wakey]

50 point contracts go for a premium. The prices being quoted on CCV contracts were not 50 point prices. This is a hefty loss and a very heavy loss to say there are no competing contracts on the market. Imagine when there are lots of 100+ pointers for sale. I suspect we will see sub $100 unless the resort blows people away and becomes extremely desirable.

 

[Brianstl]

I think it will be a lot different once there are dozens of Riviera contracts listed for sale on the resale market. Right now seeing one pop up is few and far between, so it's rare and therefore scarce. Once there are many of them, I think we will see the resale price drop even lower. It will have to in order to be competitive or viable against what else is for sale out there. In the $120-$130pp range why would anyone buy it over L14 resales that are cheaper and have more booking flexibility? Over time the only advantage to buying RIV will be the cheaper price. I think it will eventually net out to be similar to VB, low buy in, high MF, and a disconnection from the rest of the network.

A Vero resale contract recently went for $55 pp and it wasn’t stripped.

 

[RivShore]

That's the whole point..... That's why many of us think RIV will be depressed in the resale market. I also wouldn't say its "relatively close". I would fully expect RIV to be more expensive right now than CCV by a fair margin. Price increases across the board since 2017, on the skyliner, only "long term" option in the Epcot area (CCV had Poly and GFV both launch before it with much better access to MK).

Everything that RIV has in its favor over CCV it shouldn't be close IMO. That being said I personally am not a fan of CCV or the new Reflections, I know others love it more.

You don't consider a 13% difference relativity close? How about the 7% difference on the low end of the samples you gave?

I don't see how you can expect it to be selling higher than the well known CCV at this point. It's a very different product - points usable at all resorts vs. points usable only at one resort that no one has even seen yet. All that adds up to a logically lower price in my head...

 

[sethschroeder]

You don't consider a 13% difference relativity close? How about the 7% difference on the low end of the samples you gave?

I don't see how you can expect it to be selling higher than the well known CCV at this point. It's a very different product - points usable at all resorts vs. points usable only at one resort that no one has even seen yet. All that adds up to a logically lower price in my head...

I don't when you consider CCV was introduced at $176 vs RIV at $188.

That's 77% of the price for CCV on the low side in my example and 64% of the price for RIV as a starting point.

Overall on a 130 point purchase for a week at RIV that is an extra $3.1k lost on a $24k purchase.

So no I don't consider that to be close especially when like I said we should see RIV easily selling for more if not for the resale restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't when you consider CCV was introduced at $176 vs RIV at $188.

That's 77% of the price for CCV on the low side in my example and 64% of the price for RIV as a starting point.

Overall on a 130 point purchase for a week at RIV that is an extra $3.1k lost on a $24k purchase.

So no I don't consider that to be close especially when like I said we should see RIV easily selling for more if not for the resale restrictions.

I think if we were a year in, I would agree with your analysis. But, it was the sellers who PRICED their contract that low. They did not attempt to sell it for more so there is no way to know whether someone would have jumped on it at higher price. One did sell for $140.

A seller who listed it that low from the start without even trying to get more had a financial situation that played a role in order to get a quick sale...and it sold within hours, I believe of being listed.

Even if the restrictions were not there, resale contracts come with a the lack of membership benefits . If someone can buy direct at 175 points around $170, with incentives, the savings for resale has to be a decent amount in order to buy and give up those direct benefits.

I just don’t think you can ignore those pieces . People buy resale to save money off of direct.,,anything less than a 20% discount, regardless of the restrictions, would push buyers to direct,

Given that this person used 100 points for a trip, they got Something out of it, With only 50 points, $40 more a point would given them another $2k...maybe whatever they booked for those 100 points was worth that and thus the low selling priced

Just way too many factors to say that the low price of this contract is because of restrictions...at least in my opinion.

 

[Soap_1984]

While I agree with that, if I went and bought SSR, OKW, AKL, PVB, VGF or pretty much any other resort direct, and then threw it on the resale market, I would likely see a similar loss.

A $67 loss (at the maximum), IMO doesn't seem too bad considering as @DebbieB mentioned that 50 points won't get much at Riviera, and since they are resale points, they cannot be used at any other resort. While I understand other's have different situations than myself, I personally don't know if I would take that contract if it was given to me for free. Without owning other Riviera points, I would be locked into those maintenance fees for 50 years on a contract that is nearly unusable for more than a couple of nights per year. It seems like the market for those points would have to be A) someone who owns more Riviera points or B) a local who is just looking for a weekend getaway once per year or C) Someone who comes down to WDW once every 3 years for 5 or 6 nights and REALLY loves Riveiera.

This is true but disney has admitted (not that they had to because it's obvious) that they are massively over pricing other resorts direct because they don't want people buying those resorts they want to sell the new resort(s). You can't really compare Aulani either, I mean there are much better direct incentives but it isn't even on wdw property and, not only that, it is not a trip that 90% of dvc buyers are doing more than once every 5 years due to the length of the flight. It has been on sale direct forever.

If you really wanted to compare, look at what the resorts sold for direct at the time they were being marketed, adjust for inflation to today and compare vs resale prices of that resort today. I'm partially guessing, but I can almost guarantee the majority of people selling non Riv are breaking even or losing only a bit of money, and that is after having used the contract for decades in some cases. So...the Riv discount is a massive discount that reflects the restrictions and the over pricing of the resort direct. There is no sugar coating that, people selling now are taking a bath it hasn't even opened yet.

 

[Sandisw]

This is true but disney has admitted (not that they had to because it's obvious) that they are massively over pricing other resorts direct because they don't want people buying those resorts they want to sell the new resort(s). You can't really compare Aulani either, I mean there are much better direct incentives but it isn't even on wdw property and, not only that, it is not a trip that 90% of dvc buyers are doing more than once every 5 years due to the length of the flight. It has been on sale direct forever.

If you really wanted to compare, look at what the resorts sold for direct at the time they were being marketed, adjust for inflation to today and compare vs resale prices of that resort today. I'm partially guessing, but I can almost guarantee the majority of people selling non Riv are breaking even or losing only a bit of money, and that is after having used the contract for decades in some cases. So...the Riv discount is a massive discount that reflects the restrictions and the over pricing of the resort direct. There is no sugar coating that, people selling now are taking a bath it hasn't even opened yet.

Yes, they are taking a loss, But anyone who is selling..I think we have sold 2 or 3...before the resort even opens are selling because something is going on and they need to sell Immediately. When a seller starts so low, it is to get a quick sale and to me, you simply can’t discount thst,

As I said, in my post above, in order for resale to make sense, it has to be a substantial savings. Even if a RIVera had no resale restriction, in order to make it a better deal than buying direct, it would have to sell for less than $140..anything more than that, going direct make much more sense, Even on a 100 point contract at $140, it would only cost $4800 more and make a buyer eligible for member benefits And give them qualified points for more than just L14.

 

[RivShore]

I don't when you consider CCV was introduced at $176 vs RIV at $188.

That's 77% of the price for CCV on the low side in my example and 64% of the price for RIV as a starting point.

Overall on a 130 point purchase for a week at RIV that is an extra $3.1k lost on a $24k purchase.

So no I don't consider that to be close especially when like I said we should see RIV easily selling for more if not for the resale restrictions.

I may not have worded it clearly but I think we are actually saying similar things, I was trying to say the resale price is resonable given the restrictions when comparing to the 2018 CCV price examples you gave and your saying the price is lower than it would have been without the restrictions. Agreed, there has to be some sort of negative impact due to the restrictions.

I wasn't sure what the CCV direct price was back in 2018 so I assumed $188, thanks for clarifying.

 

[The Jackal]

I seem to remember not sure if it was the first or close to it, CCV resale contract hitting the market and the asking price was in the 145-155 range and people were saying, they were not worth it due to incentives and no benefits. The CCV contracts were not prime under 100 pointers either.

 

[RivShore]

I just don’t think you can ignore those pieces . People buy resale to save money off of direct.,,anything less than a 20% discount, regardless of the restrictions, would push buyers to direct,

That's a great point and a reasonable benchmark. So depending on the incentives, that would but the expected resale prices anywhere between $135 and $150.

 

[Brianstl]

That's a great point and a reasonable benchmark. So depending on the incentives, that would but the expected resale prices anywhere between $135 and $150.

But a RIV resale contract isn’t the same as a any other resale contract. It is restricted to such a point that you basically have to book at 11 months. The resort can and probably will be great, but that doesn’t change what the resale product is.

 

[RivShore]

But a RIV resale contract isn’t the same as a any other resale contract. It is restricted to such a point that you basically have to book at 11 months. The resort can and probably will be great, but that doesn’t change what the resale product is.

Absolutely, my point was that with that benchmark, we should be able to see how the market treats those restrictions.

It is really a very different product with little flexability since the points are for only one resort vs. 14 with the L's. You would think it would sell at a severe discount but we won't know until there's more out there and the place actually opens.

 

[Sandisw]

That's a great point and a reasonable benchmark. So depending on the incentives, that would but the expected resale prices anywhere between $135 and $150.

Exactly. And, to be honest, I do think that a year from now, when more contracts hit the market, the restrictions will most likely have an impact on the sales, because those contracts will be attractive to a much smaller percentage of resale buyers. But, as long as direct is what it is and is actively being sold, I just don't see what has sold already as an indicator. At one point, I wondered, but after having bought there, with incentives, I realized that it is too early to conclude that based on data we have.

In my case, I paid $165/ppt for 175 points. Granted, I got an additional $1K because my DD27 is a CM. But still, there are others that are going to get to that price if they buy more points.

Of course, I do think that Disney enhanced to incentives at the end of October, to encourage more direct sales, because they may not be happy with what is happening, and I would bet that restrictions are definitely at play here, especially with people adding on as I that is the reason someone was told the direct prices went up on older resorts.

 

[zavandor]

Absolutely, my point was that with that benchmark, we should be able to see how the market treats those restrictions.

It is really a very different product with little flexability since the points are for only one resort vs. 14 with the L's. You would think it would sell at a severe discount but we won't know until there's more out there and the place actually opens.

It's not just not being able to experience other resorts, lack of flexibility has many implications. For example, the holding points rule is equivalent to: "you lose all your points if you cancel within the last 30 days". With only one resort to book, one that will have a lower rate of exchanges out because of the restrictions, good luck using points on holding.
Wait until people will start complaining about losing points because they cancelled within 7 months and now they have banked points they cannot use because the resort is sold out.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

I'm new to this forum and finally (after years of debate), pulled the trigger this AM and made an offer on a resale contract (we'll see how it goes). One aspect that I looked at was the ability to rent my points, which there are several good services for that. That being the case, I suspect that there will be a side business by those companies to trade RIV points for resale point owners, both those with L14 resale and RIV resale contracts. Such a service would help support RIV's pricing.

My big, big reason for never considering a RIV resale contract is the very high MF. At $8.31/pt, it will be the highest DVC located at Disney World/Disneyland; the only higher MFs are Aulani, Vero Beach, and Hilton Head. The much higher MF will end up costing one much more in the long run than buying into another DVC contract.

In all, I suspect that RIV's pricing will go sub-$100/pt unless third party brokers (as I mentioned above) negate the resale restrictions.

 

[JETSDAD]

That being the case, I suspect that there will be a side business by those companies to trade RIV points for resale point owners, both those with L14 resale and RIV resale contracts. Such a service would help support RIV's pricing.

That won't be a new business and nothing will change from their current model. They won't set up a trade system but just as it is right now you could just rent out your Riviera points and then rent at whatever other resort it is you are wanting to stay at. People already do this to get the 11 month booking at non-home resorts.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

That won't be a new business and nothing will change from their current model. They won't set up a trade system but just as it is right now you could just rent out your Riviera points and then rent at whatever other resort it is you are wanting to stay at. People already do this to get the 11 month booking at non-home resorts.

Holy moly! I didn't even think about that being done at the moment, but can certainly see where that would be the case! Sooo much to learn.

On a completely different note, I just signed a contract for 400 pts at SSR for $86/pt! The mouse hasn't been taking ROFR on many SSR contracts recently, so we'll have to see how that works out. I need to fill out a ROFR form for this website's database.