Riviera 50 pointer cleared ROFR at $121

[GrumpyInPhilly]

Good luck w/ ROFR.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

Good luck w/ ROFR.

Thanks; I'm not real confident on ROFR at this price point, but I noticed a couple went through - at $85 and $87 this quarter - and no SSR contracts got taken so far this quarter. I'm hoping this will squeak by.

 

[Bearval]

Yes, they are taking a loss, But anyone who is selling..I think we have sold 2 or 3...before the resort even opens are selling because something is going on and they need to sell Immediately. When a seller starts so low, it is to get a quick sale and to me, you simply can’t discount thst,

As I said, in my post above, in order for resale to make sense, it has to be a substantial savings. Even if a RIVera had no resale restriction, in order to make it a better deal than buying direct, it would have to sell for less than $140..anything more than that, going direct make much more sense, Even on a 100 point contract at $140, it would only cost $4800 more and make a buyer eligible for member benefits And give them qualified points for more than just L14.

There are two DVC reseller sites with a seller “value estimation” tool and one site values a 150 RIV contract at $118 a point and the other is $130 to $135 a point.

 

[Matty B13]

There are two DVC reseller sites with a seller “value estimation” tool and one site values a 150 RIV contract at $118 a point and the other is $130 to $135 a point.

And one resaler site values it at $100, buys it themselves, and then turn around and sells it for $130......

 

[Sandisw]

There are two DVC reseller sites with a seller “value estimation” tool and one site values a 150 RIV contract at $118 a point and the other is $130 to $135 a point.

I understand and I am not saying that the restrictions won’t have some impact on sales down the road. However, I do believe because Rivera is still in active sales, with some good incentives on it, regardless of the restriction, resales are only going to be a great deal if priced much lower than direct. So, the low prices we have seen..$121, $140..seem what they should be given current sales. Let’s face it, I would bet these people sold cause they had to, not because they wanted to, not to mention that this 50 point contract was stripped.. Had it still had all of its points, it could have sold for more...I’m betting it would have.

In terms of a valuation tool, I only see that as someone’s guess, nothing more. IMO, we will know in about a year, when you have more contracts sold, where the buying public sets the value of Rivera.

I completely agree that the people who will be interested in it are going to be a select group...owners who already have qualified points and membership benefits, who just want some to use there...or, those that want to own at Rivera and already have..or will buy..some direct points from Disney.

 

[kboo]

It's not just not being able to experience other resorts, lack of flexibility has many implications. For example, the holding points rule is equivalent to: "you lose all your points if you cancel within the last 30 days". With only one resort to book, one that will have a lower rate of exchanges out because of the restrictions, good luck using points on holding.
Wait until people will start complaining about losing points because they cancelled within 7 months and now they have banked points they cannot use because the resort is sold out.

Right, I could see more renting of reservations rather than canceling - at least you'd get *something* back.

 

[Heather07438]

It's not just not being able to experience other resorts, lack of flexibility has many implications. For example, the holding points rule is equivalent to: "you lose all your points if you cancel within the last 30 days". With only one resort to book, one that will have a lower rate of exchanges out because of the restrictions, good luck using points on holding.
Wait until people will start complaining about losing points because they cancelled within 7 months and now they have banked points they cannot use because the resort is sold out.

I'm thinking direct buyers would be booking other resorts enough to offset this issue, but point well taken how the lack of flexibility could become an issue.

How will this new resort be received by the public? How will Skyliner play out as people visit WDW through 2020? If reactions to the resort are mostly praise and Skyliner resorts become something highly recommended on fansites, that would create more interest and value in RIV. Could happen

 

[Sandisw]

I'm thinking direct buyers would be booking other resorts enough to offset this issue, but point well taken how the lack of flexibility could become an issue.

How will this new resort be received by the public? How will Skyliner play out as people visit WDW through 2020? If reactions to the resort are mostly praise and Skyliner resorts become something highly recommended on fansites, that would create more interest and value in RIV. Could happen

I agree, Anyone who falls in love with RIVera is not going to buy contracts on the resale market that exclude it. Many do not go into the purchase worried about resale numbers because they do not intend to sell.

The other piece in all of this is that unless someone has to sell due to a critical financial situation, owners of RIV May choose to hang on to contracts longer than they would have without restrictions. That could be part of Disney’s thinking as well.

 

[kboo]

How hard has it been to book RIV at 7 mo? Now that we are getting into the summer where there has typically been a little more availability at 7mo, has it been getting easier?

 

[Heather07438]

The other piece in all of this is that unless someone has to sell due to a critical financial situation, owners of RIV May choose to hang on to contracts longer than they would have without restrictions. That could be part of Disney’s thinking as well.

That crossed my mind as well.

Along with the long term as they continue to build new DVC resorts over the next decade+. If point distribution is already causing some headaches, it'll be harder to control with each addition to the pool. Probably part of a proactive solution to manage so many, and give themselves more control in areas that are hard to forecast today.

 

[Sandisw]

How hard has it been to book RIV at 7 mo? Now that we are getting into the summer where there has typically been a little more availability at 7mo, has it been getting easier?

Studios are definitely going pretty much right at 7 month window..sans a day here or there.

 

[kboo]

Studios are definitely going pretty much right at 7 month window..sans a day here or there.

Wow, still. It will be interesting to see if availability eases up once there's a new declaration.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Wow, still. It will be interesting to see if availability eases up once there's a new declaration.

It's new so people are trying it if it's available. Also most studios at WDW go pretty quickly these days at 7 months if they even make it that long. And as you mention it might change a bit when more gets declared.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I do not recall any resort ever ending up with such a huge hit on the initial resales as Riviera is seeing. I recall AKV actually selling for the same price or a little more than direct for small contracts when it was in early sales. (it's when people were just starting to split their direct purchases and DVC actually had a minimum they stuck to of 150 or 160 pts so new buyers were happy to have access to a small contract). From what I recall with resorts since VGF it has tended to take a reduction in the $15-$20 to get interest in a resale while the resort was in early sales. Resorts earlier than that you might find it was less because one couldn't buy in with such a small contract ala the AKV early phenomenon. I'm doubtful this was a smaller split off of a larger purchase and suspect it was full price at $188/pt so that's well more than double the discount that's been required in the past for resale interest on the new highly promoted hot property.

 

[mustinjourney]

In the $120-$130pp range why would anyone buy it over L14 resales that are cheaper and have more booking flexibility? Over time the only advantage to buying RIV will be the cheaper price. I think it will eventually net out to be similar to VB, low buy in, high MF, and a disconnection from the rest of the network.

If a new-to-DVC buyer wants to actually book a stay at Riviera -- their only choices are to (1) buy direct or (2) buy DRR resale. They can't buy SSR resale and use those points.

As far as the advantage of DRR -- if someone wants standard view or tower rooms, they better own points at DRR. It's really as simple as that. And with the skyliner -- DRR has the advantage of getting to epcot in about 12 minutes and DHS in about 5 minutes (with less of a walk than the buses have for both DHS and epcot).

*ETA -- timing above is off. I was thinking about the timing from CBR to each respective park...so you can probably add 5 mins to DHS and subtract 3-5 mins on Epcot.

 

[anomamatt]

Wasn’t this contract stripped of 2 years worth of points? Or was that another small RVA contract? If stripped, that alone can account for ~$30 (if we are talking about two years and the buyer is paying MFs in the points).

 

[Sandisw]

Wasn’t this contract stripped of 2 years worth of points? Or was that another small RVA contract? If stripped, that alone can account for ~$30 (if we are talking about two years and the buyer is paying MFs in the points).

Yes, it was. It seems that the owner is using all 2019 and 2020 UY points and the contract could not close until April 1st..which means they have a reservation on those points.

I agree, that if those had been there, it would have sold for more.

 

[The Jackal]

If a new-to-DVC buyer wants to actually book a stay at Riviera -- their only choices are to (1) buy direct or (2) buy DRR resale. They can't buy SSR resale and use those points.

As far as the advantage of DRR -- if someone wants standard view or tower rooms, they better own points at DRR. It's really as simple as that. And with the skyliner -- DRR has the advantage of getting to epcot in about 12 minutes and DHS in about 5 minutes (with less of a walk than the buses have for both DHS and epcot).

I think you flipped them. To get to DHS you have to get on the Skyliner go to CBR exit and get on another to DHS. Epcot is get on and go to Epcot. The book is still out on that stretch from CBR to Epcot. How often are they going to have to stop the line at RIV to let scooters, etc. board? Don’t forget that station will also be used by CBR guests too.

 

[gharter]

Not really surprised.
Currently Disney is trying to sell out all the points in Riviera. The last thing they want to do is buy back more points.
As it gets close to selling out, I would expect Disney to be much more aggressive on ROFR, but for now, I woul expect most resale to pass right through.

 

[Soap_1984]

You can't take into account the discount for being stripped and not account for the premium for a smaller contract size. Also if I were buying now I would not expect to get 2019 points or if I did I'd expect to be paying the mf for those points. I just bought a contract with two years of points and it was not $30 more pp than a base line contact

If you want to stay at Riv as a new buyer you do have no choice but to buy there, but even the Riv apologists must admit that having 14 options must be more appealing to the vast majority of buyers. Thus resale Riv of going to be a very limited market; if the discount isn't massive you'd cough up the money and buy ditch