Riveria closeout

[PadensAtTheCastle]

I thought I had seen an article or thread but what is everyone’s predictions on riveria closure time and incentives. As of right now the pp increases in February. Will they have a close out deal later this year? Please link if this has been discussed somewhere else.

 

[Hubalorian]

I think first we must decide what is a RIV close out sale?

 

[Brian Noble]

I would not expect a non-trivial price drop to goose sales, for two reasons.

One: the pace of sales is already at least reasonably close to what they'd need to hit "sold out" status, and is within spitting distance by the time Lakeshore comes on line.

If I recall correctly, DVC considers a resort "sold out" at about 95% sold. That would mean about 850K more points to sell, and if they wanted to hit that mark at the end of 2026, they'd need to average about 65-66K/month from the end of November (the last DVC News report) to the end of the year. That's a little higher than it has been recently, but not by much.

The second, and more important reason: DVC probably does not want to give anyone the idea that if they wait to buy points, they will get a better deal. Buf if they do that visibly for Riviera, folks might think they'll do it again.

I could see an increase in incentives for larger purchases, and we are already starting to see that in the current round.

 

[Cfabar1]

I feel like it has been a few years since we've had a good sale... and that happened because they needed to "clear the deck" for Polynesian... and because I'd imagine the VGF flip was probably one of the highest margin flips they have ever done...

I'm not optimistic RIV will have a great "fire sale"... It has been years since Aulani has even had an outstanding promotion...

 

[VGCgroupie]

I havent been around too long but I can confidently say I think VGF and OKW fire sales were once in lifetime type deals. Once for a sold out resort and once for an active one. I dont think that will happen again in either category. I would be happy to be wrong though.

 

[airjay75]

I think the most you're going to see would be a late summer round of slightly better than typical incentives for RIV, but only if they're ready to bring LSL sales online starting in the fall. I can't remember exactly what the CFW deal was during "welcome home" weeks, but maybe something like that. If it happens, though, I don't think it's going to be something where buying today is actually more expensive.

And, if they aren't ready to start LSL sales until January, I think you'll just continue to see incentive levels where they are. Generally better than PVB, but not as good as CFW, and with each incentive cycle resulting in a slightly more overall cost than the one before.

 

[disneylandtour]

I feel like it has been a few years since we've had a good sale... and that happened because they needed to "clear the deck" for Polynesian... and because I'd imagine the VGF flip was probably one of the highest margin flips they have ever done...

I'm not optimistic RIV will have a great "fire sale"... It has been years since Aulani has even had an outstanding promotion...

I think it's more likely that PIT will have a fire sale--than RIV. I can't imagine that DVD is thrilled at the prospect of having two MK area properties actively on sale at the same time. The RIV/PIT split made a little sense ("so does your family want easy access to EPCOT/STUDIOS or MK?"). But having two big MK-area towers (I'm guessing with rooms that look pretty similar) will be more difficult to manage (and might even produce fewer sales) than focusing all sales power on LSL. It'll be even more messy if there's a meaningful difference in the point charts.

 

[disneylandtour]

And, if they aren't ready to start LSL sales until January, I think you'll just continue to see incentive levels where they are. Generally better than PVB, but not as good as CFW, and with each incentive cycle resulting in a slightly more overall cost than the one before.

I don't see any possibility of LSL being brought online before 2027.

 

[airjay75]

I don't see any possibility of LSL being brought online before 2027.

I agree that I don't think it will open before 2027. I was just thinking that they could start the pre-opening sales before 2027. But, I think that probably depends on how early in 2027 they think they can get it open.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I havent been around too long but I can confidently say I think VGF and OKW fire sales were once in lifetime type deals. Once for a sold out resort and once for an active one. I dont think that will happen again in either category. I would be happy to be wrong though.

I agree.

BPK (VGF2) was a hotel room flip and not a ground up project. ROI needed is lower.

OKW was helping to fix the future extension legal problem on a long “sold out” resort where the points had already been sold once.

 

[disneylandtour]

OKW was helping to fix the future extension legal problem on a long “sold out” resort where the points had already been sold once.

This is going to be a problem for many, many more years, so I can see this one happening again.

 

[Disfamwa]

I havent been around too long but I can confidently say I think VGF and OKW fire sales were once in lifetime type deals. Once for a sold out resort and once for an active one. I dont think that will happen again in either category. I would be happy to be wrong though.

It was a few year ago now, but there was also a sale in late 2021 with AUL in the 130’s!

 

[Cfabar1]

wasn't the OKW deal really only good if you were buying a lot of points?

 

[AstroBlasters]

It was a few year ago now, but there was also a sale in late 2021 with AUL in the 130’s!

There needs to be some context with the amount of points required

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

There needs to be some context with the amount of points required

It was $68 off per point if you buy 300.

 

[VGCgroupie]

It was a few year ago now, but there was also a sale in late 2021 with AUL in the 130’s!

I can’t say I remember hearing about that. But I may have. I want them to do that again and get it sold out!

 

[VGCgroupie]

wasn't the OKW deal really only good if you were buying a lot of points?

It was pretty good even at 300 points. This is what I have. There may have been more to stack on top of this I cant remember.

 

[Chili327]

I don't see any possibility of LSL being brought online before 2027.

Points available for purchase or open for stays?

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think we need some sort of meme to keep LSL from popping up in every thread.

 

[Dodgerburt8]

I would not expect a non-trivial price drop to goose sales, for two reasons.

One: the pace of sales is already at least reasonably close to what they'd need to hit "sold out" status, and is within spitting distance by the time Lakeshore comes on line.

If I recall correctly, DVC considers a resort "sold out" at about 95% sold. That would mean about 850K more points to sell, and if they wanted to hit that mark at the end of 2026, they'd need to average about 65-66K/month from the end of November (the last DVC News report) to the end of the year. That's a little higher than it has been recently, but not by much.

The second, and more important reason: DVC probably does not want to give anyone the idea that if they wait to buy points, they will get a better deal. Buf if they do that visibly for Riviera, folks might think they'll do it again.

I could see an increase in incentives for larger purchases, and we are already starting to see that in the current round.

According to recent county level data posted on this board, there were 665k points sold at RIV in 2025. So if they want to hit 95% in 2026, they will need somewhat better incentives to improve their sales pace. But maybe they can, or plan, to go 4 or 5 months into 2027 and we’ll just see more of the same? My guess (and it’s just a guess) is there will be one quarter, probably in the summer, where they step on the gas.