Retain value?

[Mauibound]

I was wondering if anyone has tracked how the resale value of any particular DVC resort has changed over time? For example, what 150 points at a particular resort is selling for today compared to what it sold for 5 to 10 years ago on the resale market (with respect to the resorts that have been around that long)? If anyone can refer me to any analysis of that, I would appreciate it. Any other insights anyone might have on how DVC points retain their value would be helpful. Thanks.

 

[ChiSoxKeith]

You can do this simply yourself by visiting the timesharestore, dvcbyresale or whichever resale vendor you prefer.

Currently BLT is selling at what, $120 / point direct? What is the current resale price? About $105 / point?

Don't look at your timeshare as a real estate investment.

 

[Mauibound]

You can do this simply yourself by visiting the timesharestore, dvcbyresale or whichever resale vendor you prefer.

Currently BLT is selling at what, $120 / point direct? What is the current resale price? About $105 / point?

Don't look at your timeshare as a real estate investment.

Thanks. I realize, I can compare BLT today to resales, but I am interested in more data, such as how quickly did the resale value of Boardwalk Villas or Old Key West drop over time. I am not viewing this as a real estate investment, but trying to assess my likely total cost (per vacation) if I bought today and then sold in 10 years. I assume Disney and the resellers have this data, but was looking to get it without listening to their sales pitch.

 

[chalee94]

no one has a history of resales but we have historical direct pricing and you can figure resale would have to be at least a bit less than this.

here is a history of DVC as compiled from past posts through jan 2009:

Pre-Construction -- $48 (230 pt. minimum)
October, 7, 1991 -- Sales begin at OKW
December, 1991 -- OKW opens at $51
January, 1992 -- $51 (230 pt. minimum)
February, 1992 -- $51
July-August, 1992 -- $54.50
11/1/92 -- $56
May, 1993 -- $56 (190 pt. minimum)
July, 1993 -- $57.50
January, 1994 -- $57.50 March, 1994 -- Announce Newport, CA plans
April, 1994 -- $59 Increase announced for June
6/15/94 -- $60.50
November, 1994 -- $61.50
7/1/95 -- $62.75
October 1, 1995 -- Vero Opens
March 1, 1996 -- HHI Opens
May, 1996 -- $62.75
July, 1996 -- BWV Opens
May, 1997 -- $62.75 (150 pt. minimum)
May, 1998 -- $62.75
Fall, 1998 -- OKW Sells-out
Fall, 1998 -- Announce WLV
January, 1999 -- $65
October, 1999 -- $65 (notice of OKW selling out again after adding buildings 62, 63, 64)
Mid-May, 2000 -- $67
June, 2000 -- $67
November, 2000 -- WLV Opens, BWV Sells-out
December, 2000 -- VWL sales begin
January, 2001 -- $72
March, 2001 -- an increase to $75 announced for June
June, 2001 -- $75
February 3, 2002 -- Sales begin for BCV
March 6, 2002 –- Reservations begin for BCV
June, 2002 -- $80 per point
Dec 1, 2002 -- $84 per point (announced early Oct.)
Aug 4, 2003 -- $89 per point (SSR Sales begin with $10 discount = $79) with expiration in 2054.
May, 2004 -- SSR opens.
May, 2004 -- $95 per point @SSR, $89 at other DVC resorts.
June, 2005 -- $98 per point @SSR, $92 at other DVC resorts.
Jan (?), 2006 -- $101 per point @SSR, $95 at other DVC resorts (with some variances at OKW, VB and HH). Incentives are also available lowering the effective purchase price for 150 or more points.
Fall , 2006 --AKV announced.
February 1, 2007 -- AKV sales begin for existing members. $101 ($8 incentive discount also available)
March, 2007 -- $104 per point. (160 point minimum) ($8 incentive discount available)
July 2, 2007 -- AKV opens as part of main AKL resort - Jambo House. (Original opening - was moved up to July from September)
Summer, 2007 -- GCV Announced (opening in 2009)
Fall, 2007 -- Ko'Olina, Hawaii DVC resort announced (opening in 2011)
May, 2009 -- AKV - Kidani Village - opening.
September 16, 2008 -- BLT announced. Sales begin on 9/21 to existing members at $112 per point plus a $5 incentive. Sales for new members begins on October 5, 2008. To open on September 1, 2009.
September 16, 2008 -- THV announced as an addition to SSR. To open in Spring, 2009.
January 15, 2009 -- Price increase to $112 for AKV purchase.

 

[chalee94]

there's also a ROFR thread on DVC-Operations where you can wade through prices paid for different resorts at resale over the last few years.

but since resale prices can vary somewhat due to whether they have a complete set of pts or they are "stripped" - or whether they are larger or smaller (a 50 pt contracts sells for more per pt than a 500 pt contract) - it's tough to ballpark a standardized resale price for a given period.

 

[YourEveryDayAdam]

Here is the "full retail" cost per point history:

Pre-Sales $48.00
October 1991 Old Key West Opens
October 1991 $51.00
July 1992 $54.50
November 1992 $56.00
July 1993 $57.50
June 1994 $60.50
November 1994 $61.50
July 1995 $62.75
October 1995 Vero Beach Opens
March 1996 Hilton Head Island Opens
July 1996 Boardwalk Villas Open
January 1999 $65.00
May 2000 $67.00
November 2000 Villas at Wilderness Lodge Open
January 2001 $72.00
June 2001 $75.00
June 2002 $80.00
July 2002 Beach Club Villas Open
December 2002 $84.00
August 2003 $89.00
April 2004 $95.00
May 2004 Saratoga Springs Opens
June 2005 $98.00
May 2006 $101.00

This can give you a good idea as to what resorts sold for what cost for each point.

You can also look at the reseller websites to get a good idea of what points are going for now.

Some examples:
OKW: Originally sold for between $48.00-$62.75. It is currently going for about $67.50
BWV: Originally sold for between $62.75-$67.00. It is currently going for about $75.00
WLV: Originally sold for between $67.00-$80.00. It is currently going for about $75.00
BCV: Originally sold for between $80.00-$95.00. It is currently going for about $80.00

You also have to remember that because of the economy, there are a lot of people who are trying to unload their timeshares and there are less people willing to buy them. This is causing a lower price than normal for DVC points resales. I guess that once the economy kicks back up, you should be able to add about $10-$15 per point to the resale price.

There are also two forces at work on the price of resales:

There is the actual value of a DVC contract. Specifically, this is what the contract is good for... X number of years of points at a DVC resort. As the years go by, the number of years left on the contract go down and so does the actual value. This tends to have a downward trend on resale prices.

Then there is the current cash cost of what your DVC points represent. This is what Disney charges for, cash, for the rooms. Every year Disney raises prices for it's hotel rooms. This means that, every year, the cash value of what your points represent (a night in a room) goes up. This tends to have an upward trend on resale prices.

So you have these two factors battling it out. Here is my prediction on how they will work in a "normal" economic environment:

You will buy points, at retail, for about 10-20% more than the resales are currently going for...assuming a contract at a new resort, good for about 50 years.
When you first buy, you will experience an immediate drop in value of about 10-20%...just like driving a new car off the lot.
However, as Disney increases the cost of new points and as Disney raises the cash rates for rooms, the value will slowly creep up at about the same rate that Disney raises hotel rates.
In about 5 years, the resale value will be about equal to the retail price that was paid for the points.
The value will still continue to increase, at about the same rate that Disney raises hotel rates until about 10 years before the contract expires.
from 10-5 years, the price will probably stagnate...maybe go up a little, maybe go down a little.
from 5 years until expiration, the contract will lose a significant amount of cash value each year.

You can see this trend already in the charts above. The "newer" the resort, the closer it is to its original selling price, or less. The older the resort, the higher it is from it's original selling price.

Obviously, DVC is not a very good investment from a money making standpoint. But you will gain, slowly, in cash value...in a normal economic environment.

BIG DISCLAIMER: The desirability and the size of a particular DVC resort will have a huge impact on it's resale value. This is evidenced by the fact that OKW is currently selling for about $10-$15 less than BCV.

However, eventually, the rising cost of room prices will catch up to what you initially paid. OKW, despite being one of the largest and one of the "least desirable" DVC resorts, is still selling for more than it initially sold for. In some cases, by 20% or more (depending on when you bought in).

 

[adminjedi]

OKW, despite being one of the largest and one of the "least desirable" DVC resorts, is still selling for more than it initially sold for. In some cases, by 20% or more (depending on when you bought in).

Those that bought originally have enjoyed many years of DVC vacationing, and are probably the ones selling now! They made a good decision all those years ago!