Resort prices once 2042 resorts expire give me your guesstimates (no not another 2042 resort debate)

[VGCgroupie]

I am doing some calculations and Im trying to come up with a conservative number for what certain resorts will be selling for resale in a little over 16 years, basically when the 2042 resorts expire.

I am likely completely WAY off. I was guesstimating the value of these 2 resort at

BLT - $75 - $80 per point
CCV - $90 per point.

Thoughts? Feel free to include the pricing of any other resorts you have been thinking about.

Here is some historical data. I thought it would seal my guesstimate but it did not since I see these resorts selling for less in Dec of 2024 than what is quoted here, although us Disboarders do get the best deals so that is partly why.

https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing
https://dvcfieldguide.com/dvcfieldguideindex/december-2024-dvc-field-guide-resale-index

 

[Frederic Civish]

Very interesting. I think it is a good sign that Boardwalk and Beach Club are expiring soonest, and yet they are maintaining prices similar to other resorts. Of course, they are two VERY good resorts, so their pattern might not apply to all resorts in the future. But if the pattern holds, then I think when most of the resorts are getting down to around 15 years left, they should still have most of their value.

Or course as the resorts expire or get within just a few years of it, their value will go to zero.

 

[MyDogTink]

When the 2042 properties are gone and presumably replaced with new properties with higher point charts and higher direct pricing, wouldn’t that help stabilize or drive up resale prices for resorts like BLT or CCV? Downside for them is that if replaced properties have resale restrictions, BLT and CCV provide less choices.

I’m thinking of how BWV and BCV are relatively high today compared to VB and HHI.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Both BLT and CCV are popular, I think their path will be comparable to BWV in that they'll still have good value at 17 years, presumably 15 years. So I'd say higher than what you suggested.

I think BWV and maybe BCV will be the guinea pigs. The value will drop, we just don't know when (SAB may help BCV last a bit longer). We'll then have a better idea for BLT, CCV, etc

 

[starsaber25]

I think that the resale market will look completely different in about 20 years. Besides the current resorts you can book at with resale points, all of the new resorts will most likely have resale restrictions. So as resorts expire, if you are buying resale then you are most likely buying into one resort. Now how will people view this is 20 years? Who knows.

I think prices will stabilize on the resale market for BLT, CCV, VGF, SSR, OKW, PVB because you will still have access to more then one resort on the resale market. I think prices will continue to drop for RR, CFW and for whatever resorts open in the future like Lakeshore Lodge. The restrictions will be too much for those resorts to keep their prices high. It will be geared toward a specific buyer who just really loves one of those resorts.

I understand that Disney placed the restrictions on resale because they want people to buy from them. But there has to be some concern that people won't be willing to buy in to DVC if they realize that their purchase loses 50% of it's value before the ink is even dry. As many "experts" say, most people hold on to their contracts for about 8 years. If that happens and there isn't much value on the resale market then won't DVC become more like timeshares for other companies? And then the well DVC isn't like "insert timeshare company here" because DVC holds so much value won't be part of the discussion anymore.

Again, I think the resale market will look much different in about 20 years. Will it be good for the market or bad? I guess we will find out. But I still think that Disney needs the resale market to survive because they don't want people to start considering DVC like any other timeshare company that is not worth it.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I think that the resale market will look completely different in about 20 years. Besides the current resorts you can book at with resale points, all of the new resorts will most likely have resale restrictions. So as resorts expire, if you are buying resale then you are most likely buying into one resort. Now how will people view this is 20 years? Who knows.

I think prices will stabilize on the resale market for BLT, CCV, VGF, SSR, OKW, PVB because you will still have access to more then one resort on the resale market. I think prices will continue to drop for RR, CFW and for whatever resorts open in the future like Lakeshore Lodge. The restrictions will be too much for those resorts to keep their prices high. It will be geared toward a specific buyer who just really loves one of those resorts.

I understand that Disney placed the restrictions on resale because they want people to buy from them. But there has to be some concern that people won't be willing to buy in to DVC if they realize that their purchase loses 50% of it's value before the ink is even dry. As many "experts" say, most people hold on to their contracts for about 8 years. If that happens and there isn't much value on the resale market then won't DVC become more like timeshares for other companies? And then the well DVC isn't like "insert timeshare company here" because DVC holds so much value won't be part of the discussion anymore.

Again, I think the resale market will look much different in about 20 years. Will it be good for the market or bad? I guess we will find out. But I still think that Disney needs the resale market to survive because they don't want people to start considering DVC like any other timeshare company that is not worth it.

I think one solution will be that DVC will offer a way to "wash" the points to make them eligible to book other resorts. Other timeshares do that. It will make more sense to DVC financially AND stabilize the resale market somewhat while also funneling a share of the resale profits to DVC.

It's only the informed buyers who buy resale. They'll be in the know about the ability to wash resale points and take that into account in their calculations before buying resale. The resale companies will probably market that option as well. It'll still save buyers thousands, so many will do it... others will prefer to spend more to get the blue card perks of AP discounts, moonlight magic, etc (which only direct sales will confer). Essentially the market will function as it does now, except that DVC would be taking a share of the resale market profits. I've thought that this has been the plan all along, DVC's long game. But

 

[hhisc16]

BLT-100
CCV-100
(Direct may be 300+ for these resorts in 2043)

 

[atthebeachclub]

I think BWV and maybe BCV will be the guinea pigs. The value will drop, we just don't know when (SAB may help BCV last a bit longer). We'll then have a better idea for BLT, CCV, etc

I really don’t think values for BCV or BWV will fall off a cliff until the very last few years (and this will likely only happen when cost of purchase, including all the fees, exceeds cost to get a room from Disney). I suspect they will more likely not increase, and have some decreases slightly offset by inflation. Because you can still get value out of these resorts at resale when comparing with hotel costs, even accounting for expiry date. The market is VERY GOOD at finding the appropriate pricing.

 

[Massachusetts]

I believe inflation is going run hot for the next few years. The location of both resorts will probably allow them to retain their current market value. Factoring in inflation I would guess somewhere between $195-$205 in 2042 dollars. Direct will at least be approaching if not exceeding $400.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Read through all the comments so far. I am glad I wasn't way too low in my guesstimate.
I actually love the point washing aspect @Duckbug.Ducktales mentioned. That could be a real game changer for a lot of things.
While thinking it over yesterday I was considering CCV and BLT locations. CCV has more life left in it than BLT but BRV pricing is pretty low right now imo. I have not been to CCV or BRV but I assume there is a reason BRV has fell into the $80's already, but that had me a bit nervous for CCV's pricing. BLT I think due to its walkability to MK with really help it over other resorts.
@MyDogTink brought up VB and HHI I personally think the main reason behind their very low value compared to BWV and BCV is the dues, even though BW and BC are insanely popular I think the dues is the reason.

 

[Frederic Civish]

One of the very best things about DVC compared to other Timeshares is that it holds its value. I own a whole bunch of points on another major time share, maybe the number two or number three after Disney, and I can honestly tell you that I bought a lot of points direct from them at a high price, but then I bought a ton of points, two or three times more, on the resale market, for PENNIES on the dollar. Literally, l paid about 8% of the official retail price, for those points.

But this has not happened with DVC. Why? Well, a number of reasons, including the desireability of Disney, and the fact that the Maintenance Fees are carefully capped at the level of actual needs. But one of the main things is that you still get great benefits, when you use your DVC that you purchased on the Retail Market, instead of Direct. And by making the Retail Market to be VALUABLE and WORTHWHILE, this does also help Disney to support the price of its own DVC sales.

So, I really think Disney is making a big mistake and shooting themselves in the foot, much more than hurting purchasers, when they start to restrict the value of Resale, more and more. But then it is notable that Disney has made MANY very severe errors in recent years. Hopefully all of this will be re-evaluated and improve, as Management (and NEW Management in the future) wakes up. --- Put that on the list!!!

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

As many "experts" say, most people hold on to their contracts for about 8 years.

I think this is often misquoted so I just wanted to add a slight correction. Most people hold on to their contracts for much longer than 8yrs. It’s just the that ones sell that have an average of 8yrs of ownership. The percentage of people that sell (and sell early) are significantly smaller than those that keep for longer term.

But one of the main things is that you still get great benefits, when you use your DVC that you purchased on the Retail Market, instead of Direct. And by making the Retail Market to be VALUABLE and WORTHWHILE, this does also help Disney to support the price of its own DVC sales.

Just curious, how would keeping value and worth in resale help DVC if you’d be able to get the same product on the resale market for 40-60% less? I understand why it helps us consumers and members but why would people actively choose to pay way more for the same product and buy direct from DVD? The vast majority (dare I say all?) of people don’t buy thinking they’re going to sell in the the near future, if ever, so having an active resale market, while reassuring for those of us that know about it, isn’t as big of a factor for the pixie dusted vacation buyers.

Resale will always give you the one thing DVD promised which is a room at your home resort with priority access during a specific window. That has plenty of value to the members here on these boards who mostly want a great deal and a great room. What Disney should do is make the direct product much more valuable and worthwhile. They need to up the perks and make direct significantly
more appealing so it doesn’t matter what resale looks like, direct just becomes a no brainer even with the an extreme depreciation if resold.

I think the thing that truly separates DVC from other timeshares is access to the most visited theme parks in the world. As long as these hotels are adjacent to the parks, DVC, both direct and resale, will have value and won’t fall to the levels of other timeshares.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Sorry I just realized you wanted predictions about the remaining resorts post-2042, not another 2042 debate

There’s really just too many factors we can’t predict right now, most especially, what Disney plans to do next with the expiring resorts and locations. But also what will direct pricing look like in 16yrs, how many restricted resorts are added to the portfolio (and how appealing they are), new point charts, park additions and improvements (maybe even a new park?) etc.

A shot in the dark? I’m not sure I’m fully in agreement with @Massachusetts exact numbers but I do agree that the general trend of resale does shift up in line with direct pricing over time, so I don’t think the numbers will be below where they are now in 16yrs. Maybe a bit higher or equal to where they are now for BLT and AKV. Higher for CCV. SSR might be the one that I’m most unsure about but even that I think will still have some buoyancy to not dip further.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Sorry I just realized you wanted predictions about the remaining resorts post-2042, not another 2042 debate

There’s really just too many factors we can’t predict right now, most especially, what Disney plans to do next with the expiring resorts and locations. But also what will direct pricing look like in 16yrs, how many restricted resorts are added to the portfolio (and how appealing they are), new point charts, park additions and improvements (maybe even a new park?) etc.

A shot in the dark? I’m not sure I’m fully in agreement with @Massachusetts exact numbers but I do agree that the general trend of resale does shift up in line with direct pricing over time, so I don’t think the numbers will be below where they are now in 16yrs. Maybe a bit higher or equal to where they are now for BLT and AKV. Higher for CCV for CCV. SSR might be the one that I’m most unsure about but even that I think will still have some buoyancy to not dip further.

No worries. 2042 is a hot topic and honestly my question was based of a 2042 resort. I am trying to do an estimate of how much more money it would cost me to own a 2042 vs BLT or CCV when you factor in the point chart being lower for 2042 resorts.

 

[JackosinDIS]

My guess is that resale will be around 50% of direct… so track direct increases and you won’t be that far off

 

[Sandisw]

My guess is that as more restricted resorts come online and that resale resorts will all be clustered together and most likely sub $100. How far under?

Not sure.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Just curious, how would keeping value and worth in resale help DVC if you’d be able to get the same product on the resale market for 40-60% less? I understand why it helps us consumers and members but why would people actively choose to pay way more for the same product and buy direct from DVD?

In my opinion, the ONLY reason that many many people are willing to buy Direct from Disney, is because DVC in general tends to hold its value, and this 'permanency' of value applies to both Direct and Retail purchases. But, frankly, many people will already skip the Direct purchases and go with the RESALE market, because they just don't see the Direct Purchases to be worth the extra cost. Resales cost less and in large part this is because they also have less benefits, such as discounted Annual Pass costs and the 'rest areas' for DVC at DW. So, if Disney makes this any worse, and makes the RESALE so that it is even LOWER, then even more people will be fully willing to skip the cost of the Direct Purchases, because the Resale will cost less and less, and yet will give you the main benefit, which is the ability to get a great room at a great rate, and many of the great resorts. This will not chance, so if Retail costs less, it becomes even more attractive. Whereas, the more valuable the RESALE purchases are, in relation to the Direct Purchases - the closer they are in absolute benefits - then the more the Resales will cost. Being closer in absolute value to the Direct purchases will also make the relative cost of the two to be more equivalent, and the result will be that EVEN MORE people will be making DIRECT PURCHASES.

So, this CLEARLY seems counterintuitive (which is why unthinking people at Disney headquarters have made some of the wrong decisions), but Disney should be doing everything they can to PUSH UP the VALUE and thus push up the PRICE for the RESALE purchases, and this in turn will get them even more customers for their own Direct sales as people go for the Direct, because it is straight from Disney and doesn't cost a lot more than Resale.

I can see that Disney might want to keep a few 'Special' benefits in place for Direct Purchasers (such as discounted annual passes) but the harder you make it to use your Resale purchase - such as restricting Resale from 'New' resorts - then the more you make that price lower, and the more attractive you make the Resale market compared to Direct from Disney. I think this can already be seen to already be reflected in the price of some of the newer reesorts, such as Riviera, which already have the MOST restrctions on value for Resale, and this is also being reflected in their Direct prices.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

In my opinion, the ONLY reason that many many people are willing to buy Direct from Disney, is because DVC in general tends to hold its value, and this 'permanency' of value applies to both Direct and Retail purchases. But, frankly, many people will already skip the Direct purchases and go with the RESALE market, because they just don't see the Direct Purchases to be worth the extra cost.

Many many people buy direct... many people go resale... but we don't know how many people are in each group relative to each other. For many of us on Disboards, resale value is a factor when deciding to purchase. Beyond these online communities/FB groups, how many even know the resale market exists? I really wish we had that data because in the end, it's hard to make conclusions without knowing.

 

[muppets3d]

I think that the resale market will look completely different in about 20 years. Besides the current resorts you can book at with resale points, all of the new resorts will most likely have resale restrictions. So as resorts expire, if you are buying resale then you are most likely buying into one resort. Now how will people view this is 20 years? Who knows.

I think prices will stabilize on the resale market for BLT, CCV, VGF, SSR, OKW, PVB because you will still have access to more then one resort on the resale market. I think prices will continue to drop for RR, CFW and for whatever resorts open in the future like Lakeshore Lodge. The restrictions will be too much for those resorts to keep their prices high. It will be geared toward a specific buyer who just really loves one of those resorts.

I understand that Disney placed the restrictions on resale because they want people to buy from them. But there has to be some concern that people won't be willing to buy in to DVC if they realize that their purchase loses 50% of it's value before the ink is even dry. As many "experts" say, most people hold on to their contracts for about 8 years. If that happens and there isn't much value on the resale market then won't DVC become more like timeshares for other companies? And then the well DVC isn't like "insert timeshare company here" because DVC holds so much value won't be part of the discussion anymore.

Again, I think the resale market will look much different in about 20 years. Will it be good for the market or bad? I guess we will find out. But I still think that Disney needs the resale market to survive because they don't want people to start considering DVC like any other timeshare company that is not worth it.

I think the 8 year thing is one of those things like "a duck's quack does not echo" - a "snapple fact" with no truth behind it.

With many other timeshare systems, people basically have to stop paying maintenance fees and let the developer repossess the points because nobody wants the resale contract. The fact is, Disney Vacation Club will always have some resale value simply because of the location. No other timeshare system operates inside the Disney bubble.

 

[muppets3d]

In my opinion, the ONLY reason that many many people are willing to buy Direct from Disney, is because DVC in general tends to hold its value, and this 'permanency' of value applies to both Direct and Retail purchases. But, frankly, many people will already skip the Direct purchases and go with the RESALE market, because they just don't see the Direct Purchases to be worth the extra cost. Resales cost less and in large part this is because they also have less benefits, such as discounted Annual Pass costs and the 'rest areas' for DVC at DW. So, if Disney makes this any worse, and makes the RESALE so that it is even LOWER, then even more people will be fully willing to skip the cost of the Direct Purchases, because the Resale will cost less and less, and yet will give you the main benefit, which is the ability to get a great room at a great rate, and many of the great resorts. This will not chance, so if Retail costs less, it becomes even more attractive. Whereas, the more valuable the RESALE purchases are, in relation to the Direct Purchases - the closer they are in absolute benefits - then the more the Resales will cost. Being closer in absolute value to the Direct purchases will also make the relative cost of the two to be more equivalent, and the result will be that EVEN MORE people will be making DIRECT PURCHASES.

So, this CLEARLY seems counterintuitive (which is why unthinking people at Disney headquarters have made some of the wrong decisions), but Disney should be doing everything they can to PUSH UP the VALUE and thus push up the PRICE for the RESALE purchases, and this in turn will get them even more customers for their own Direct sales as people go for the Direct, because it is straight from Disney and doesn't cost a lot more than Resale.

I can see that Disney might want to keep a few 'Special' benefits in place for Direct Purchasers (such as discounted annual passes) but the harder you make it to use your Resale purchase - such as restricting Resale from 'New' resorts - then the more you make that price lower, and the more attractive you make the Resale market compared to Direct from Disney. I think this can already be seen to already be reflected in the price of some of the newer reesorts, such as Riviera, which already have the MOST restrctions on value for Resale, and this is also being reflected in their Direct prices.

Why then do people buy Bluegreen or pretty much any other timeshare system, the vast majority of which have zero resale value. The only way to get rid of many of these contracts is to simply stop paying maintenance fees and let the developer repossess the points.

The truth is people buy DVC because it offers something no other timeshare system can - villa accommodations in the Disney bubble.