How many points are you looking to buy? Contract size and whether the contract is fully loaded with points, stripped, or somewhere in between, make a big difference in how much discount off direct is reasonable to expect.
I think currently, 35% off direct for AKV is right around the number where it's at risk of being taken back by Disney's Right of First Refusal, but it might get through.
If you're looking for a small contract, or you find one loaded with points, I think it would be tough (but not impossible) to find a seller willing to meet you at that price. If you're looking for a big contract and/or it's stripped, I think that's a totally reasonable goal - but you may end up negotiating a great deal for Disney and wasting several weeks in the process.