Resale prices in 4 Years

[bwbuddy5]

Break out the crystal ball - I plan to buy resale sometime in the next 4 years. With grand kids at that time possibly 2-6YO in mind, I am leaning towards VGF and BLT (for location) and to a lesser degree AKL (for animals). Where would you predict prices will be in 4 years?

Would you recommend a different DVC resort in my situation? If I find the perfect configuration prior to 4 years (use year, number of points I need, stripped discount), should I go ahead and buy, and try to rent points to cover my annual dues?

 

[disneynutz]

If you find what you want, buy. Problem is you don't know where you want to buy and you won't know until you stay there. Ever think of buying SSR just to get into the system and using those points to stay at all of the resorts? Then if you have trouble booking your favorite resort you can buy there for the 11 month booking advantage.

Bill

 

[suebeelin]

I personally think if there's another recession/dip, go ahead snd buy. The best bet may be BLT bc of proximity to MK with young kids.

I found AKL difficult with a toddler bc of the bus system and constantly breaking down the stroller.

It's also historically been easier to get AKL at the 7 mo mark so long as you aren't specifically booking value and concierge.

BLT lake views can be had most easily right now. But it can be difficult to get sometimes.

VGF is a very small resort and is hard to get at the 7 mo mark-- even the 11mo mark, depending on the season and booking category. Plus, it is the priciest resale right now and requires a lot of points per room. However, if you love it there, then of course buy there.

 

[JWG]

I can guarantee that prices will be less than, the same as, or more than they are now...

 

[DVC Doctor]

I would buy BLT NOW as prices are around $125pp and in 4 years they will probably be more

 

[pmaurer74]

Maybe keep your eye our for a loaded contract that if you rent out the points could pay for part of the cost of the DVC. Personally I wish I had bought 4 years ago but I think that prices are a little inflated right now, they may go down a little in winter.

 

[::danielle::]

Have you stayed at BLT? The modern theming isn't for everyone. That being said, the location cannot be beat.

As for prices in 4 years, all it takes is one recession to bring the prices down a bit. I don't follow these matters but given the nature of the US Economy, there will be another recession at some point. I just don't know if it will be in the next 4 years or so.

 

[suebeelin]

It's got to be a bubble.

Nothing goes up THAT fast THAT quickly... Everything's up 30% or more in 6-9 months!!

I'm tempted to sell my contracts for the $3-4k profit they will each bring in, but we already booked a trip for January 2016, and expect another big one in December 2016. And we need our home resort priority (BLT and BWV), so no go.

To make $6-8k and miss out on our two trips is tempting, to be sure. But not worth it... Especially on the off chance the prices stay this high-- or goes higher.

 

[Dean]

Break out the crystal ball - I plan to buy resale sometime in the next 4 years. With grand kids at that time possibly 2-6YO in mind, I am leaning towards VGF and BLT (for location) and to a lesser degree AKL (for animals). Where would you predict prices will be in 4 years?

Would you recommend a different DVC resort in my situation? If I find the perfect configuration prior to 4 years (use year, number of points I need, stripped discount), should I go ahead and buy, and try to rent points to cover my annual dues?

IF DVC makes sense for you, I'd make some decisions now and start looking for the right contract at the "right price". Generally stripped contracts aren't enough cheaper to justify the loss of points but given two of the locations you're looking are going to be high price and high demand, I'd buy once you find that right contract and pay cash even if you have to rent out once or twice to do so. I think it's likely VGF will be more compared to current resale price, BLT will likely be about the same. Regardless, I do not believe you'll see sufficient savings to justify waiting strictly for that reason alone. I do agree there's some artificial nature to the current sales, actually even before the increases the last year, but I'm not sure 4 yrs will be enough to get past that even if it's so.

Since you asked about other resorts and recommendations, I'd suggest you consider SSR or BWV. For BWV because of it's location, cheaper price, more contracts and standard view cheaper villas. For SSR because of it's easy in and out, lower price, lower fees and great pool options. Of the 3 you mentioned, I believe BLT will be the best value all else being equal.

 

[DVC Doctor]

It's got to be a bubble.

Nothing goes up THAT fast THAT quickly... Everything's up 30% or more in 6-9 months!!

I'm tempted to sell my contracts for the $3-4k profit they will each bring in, but we already booked a trip for January 2016, and expect another big one in December 2016. And we need our home resort priority (BLT and BWV), so no go.

To make $6-8k and miss out on our two trips is tempting, to be sure. But not worth it... Especially on the off chance the prices stay this high-- or goes higher.

This sounds like people when the stock market goes up quickly - they get greedy and make bad decisions.

You can always cancel your trips and rebook via renting points and still pocket some nice $$$

How easy or hard is it for you to make $8,000 in your job?

If you make $200k per year then this is a small number, but if you make $10 per hour this is a huge windfall.

No matter, I think people put too much emphasis on SHORT term swings of the stock market and DVC resale market and they need to take a longer view.

Since 1991, the price trend for Disney new DVC Sales has been UP-Up-UP and Disney has NEVER lowered their prices (when viewed over 1-2 years) so that probably indicates that this trend will continue and in another 10 years, the DVC new prices will easily be over $200pp and may hit $250pp, so that should help support todays resale prices.

OF course, I could be completely wrong and we are all doomed.

 

[Drewski77]

It's got to be a bubble.

Nothing goes up THAT fast THAT quickly... Everything's up 30% or more in 6-9 months!!

I'm tempted to sell my contracts for the $3-4k profit they will each bring in, but we already booked a trip for January 2016, and expect another big one in December 2016. And we need our home resort priority (BLT and BWV), so no go.

To make $6-8k and miss out on our two trips is tempting, to be sure. But not worth it... Especially on the off chance the prices stay this high-- or goes higher.

The above is why prices continue to climb. When prices are up on any asset, yet many owners who could sell for a profit do not as they still see more value in holding, then prices continue to rise until the price reaches a point where more sellers are created.

My guess is the resale market was underpriced for some time, and now things are "correcting" to a new normal. If prices continue to rise more sellers will arrive and we'll see prices stabilize. Probably already there for some DVC resorts, while others most likely have more room to go up.

 

[CarolMN]

....(snip).......and Disney has NEVER lowered their prices (when viewed over 1-2 years) .........

Actually, they have - although they were a bit "sneaky" about it.

While it's true that they haven't lowered the NOMINAL price (even when the economy was in trouble), they have offered various levels of incentives when sales slowed. It's a lot easier to reduce or eliminate incentives than it is to raise prices, so I'm sure this was a deliberate strategy on their part.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Actually, they have - although they were a bit "sneaky" about it.

While it's true that they haven't lowered the NOMINAL price (even when the economy was in trouble), they have offered various levels of incentives when sales slowed. It's a lot easier to reduce or eliminate incentives than it is to raise prices, so I'm sure this was a deliberate strategy on their part.

I did not want to get too technical with that statement as there were awesome promotions for SSR and BLT and even VGC back in the day (i.e. big discount plus two years points, etc.), but those never were offered for VGF (insert mad face icon) and many lurkers that waited for the special deals completely missed buying VGF.

Truth be told, I was one of those people that thought Disney would eventually offer a nice discount or perk for VGF, but that never happened.

When you look at the trend for DVC sales since 1991 the graph is pretty much like a staircase going up with a few plateaus and there is little evidence to support any change to this trend in the future.

Perhaps they will start some new restriction for older resorts or add some new feature for newer resorts, but it will be interesting to see how they sell new resorts in the future with $200+pp prices when SSR and others will be so much less.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Here are some sample prices (thanks to DVC Mike) that DVC was charging

1991 = $51
1994 = $60
1996 = $63
1999 = $65
2001 = $75
2003 = $89
2004 = $95
2006 = $100
2008 = $112
2009 = $120
2011 = $140
2013 = $150
2015 = $165

2017 = $180 ???
2020 = $200 ???

 

[suebeelin]

This sounds like people when the stock market goes up quickly - they get greedy and make bad decisions.

You can always cancel your trips and rebook via renting points and still pocket some nice $$$

How easy or hard is it for you to make $8,000 in your job?

If you make $200k per year then this is a small number, but if you make $10 per hour this is a huge windfall.

No matter, I think people put too much emphasis on SHORT term swings of the stock market and DVC resale market and they need to take a longer view.

Since 1991, the price trend for Disney new DVC Sales has been UP-Up-UP and Disney has NEVER lowered their prices (when viewed over 1-2 years) so that probably indicates that this trend will continue and in another 10 years, the DVC new prices will easily be over $200pp and may hit $250pp, so that should help support todays resale prices.

OF course, I could be completely wrong and we are all doomed.

Is $6-8k a huge sum to me? Yes and no. Yes, because it is a nice little bundle of cash. No, because it's not enough to tempt me to lose out on two trips (plus future currently unplanned trips).

Renting for January 2016 would cost $1650 (200+ points at $8pp over maintenance fees). Plus, poly is completely booked 5 months out. We already spent $900 on airfare. Do I lose the $900? Or rebook and stay at Saratoga?? No, I do not like SSR, not with two little kids.

For December 2016, I would have to pay $3,600 (400pts at $9pp over maintenance fee) bc we need the home resort priority. To make matters worse, we lose out on securing our BLT and BWV standard room point savers!!

That means I would only really pocket $2.7k (8k - 3.6k - 1.65k) if I were to sell now.

Then if I rebuy in 2 years, assuming the prices go back to what I bought my initial property at, I would need to put in $1k in closing costs ($500 each contract).

That reduces the profit from $2.7k to just $1.7k.

I'll just keep my two contracts, and forfeit the $1,700 (if I was able to rebuy at my initial purchase price) or $2,700 (if I never rebuy but decide to rent. Mind you, that profit would be lost on rents for another 1 or 2 trips, or 300 points at $9pp over maintenance fees).

Since I plan on having trips for another 10 years, it doesn't make sense to rent or sell right now. In a purely financial perspective, I'm really not making any money, and may very likely lose money given my future travel plans, if I were to sell my dvc right now. Just not worth it !

 

[rlovew]

While BLT points might go down if the economy tanks I doubt VGF resale prices will drop much- as it is a small resort there are less contracts overall to go around. Also it is hard to get into if you don't own there at many times of the year in most room sizes. There might be a couple of VGF contracts that go for a low price (see maybe $135/point) I doubt it will get lower than that and they will probably be higher. Due to the fact that they had to close the waitlist at GFV from Disney right now I bet many buyers could sell those contracts for more than Disney is charging if they were willing for it to take a few weeks instead of overnight to get the buyer.

 

[disneynutz]

I did not want to get too technical with that statement as there were awesome promotions for SSR and BLT and even VGC back in the day (i.e. big discount plus two years points, etc.), but those never were offered for VGF (insert mad face icon) and many lurkers that waited for the special deals completely missed buying VGF.

Truth be told, I was one of those people that thought Disney would eventually offer a nice discount or perk for VGF, but that never happened.

When you look at the trend for DVC sales since 1991 the graph is pretty much like a staircase going up with a few plateaus and there is little evidence to support any change to this trend in the future.

Perhaps they will start some new restriction for older resorts or add some new feature for newer resorts, but it will be interesting to see how they sell new resorts in the future with $200+pp prices when SSR and others will be so much less.

Were prior incentives offered because of the financial climate or because at that time someone else was running the DVD/DVC?

Many things have changed in the last couple of years and my guess is that new management is the cause.

Bill

 

[DVC Doctor]

Were prior incentives offered because of the financial climate or because at that time someone else was running the DVD/DVC?

Many things have changed in the last couple of years and my guess is that new management is the cause.

Bill

I would say the Great Recession was the main factor in offering promotions during 2008-2011 and I would guess the 2010 Black Friday sale for BLT at $92pp + one years of points that puts the true cost at $80pp (assume $12pp value of points) as the lowest price during that correction.

 

[MountainMouse]

I would say the Great Recession was the main factor in offering promotions during 2008-2011 and I would guess the 2010 Black Friday sale for BLT at $92pp + one years of points that puts the true cost at $80pp (assume $12pp value of points) as the lowest price during that correction.

That's amazing, and here I was probably wasting my time trying to snag a $100 computer. Wish I was in the market then.

 

[pmaurer74]

I remember being offered something like 10 free points for every 100 points purchased for AKV 5 years ago. I did not know about the resale market until we got home but we were very tempted but had just moved and started new jobs.