Resale Prices: Fasten your seatbelts

[CPTJAK]

Anyone else think resales are going to go down like the stock market?

Everything is lining up:

1. End of year-Maintenance Fees
2. DVC opens up several new resorts-tons of New inventory
3. Very Few Resale Buyers
4. Tons of Resale contracts


This may be the best time to buy Resale..

 

[tubtruck]

I dont think they will, Disney wont allow them to. They would rather buy them up them see them sell dirt cheap.
If the difference in price between a new BLT AKL or whatever contract and a resale become too wide selling new contracts will become very difficult. In view of this I imagine Disney would rather buy them up, sit on them until better economic times come, then of course sell them as addons at a profit.

 

[ACDSNY]

The resale prices have been dropping since June and the low prices are passing ROFR.

 

[dudelydude]

Look, I know this isn't going to make you feel any better, but all I have to say is YIPEEEEEEE. I have been waiting to buy and from my perspective, I have been playing the waiting game...like the stock market as you said. I agree with the pp's that contracts will not get outrageously low, but getting something in the mid to high $70's is my goal. I know I sound like a cheap-skate, but it's all a matter of market conditions, supply and demand and risk. And as with everything else, it's cyclical. What does it matter anyway...its a long term investment that will pay all kinds of divdends if used correctly.

 

[janni518]

I was just thinking there might be more available, not that the price would drop. Just didn't think Disney would allow that.

Of course this is all castles in the air at this point.

 

[tvwalsh]

Look at the results in the ROFR thread. Face it, with very rare exceptions DVC has stopped ROFRing and the resale prices are dropping fast. I started a thread asking for those who got FOFRed ONLY to respond in the thread. So far there has only been one recent ROFR reported. Be aware of this when you buy!

 

[CarolA]

I think those of us who thought that the high resale value was the "norm" are probably disappointed.

Those of us who realized we were buying a TIMESHARE and as soon as we signed on the dotted line the value dropped like a rock are probably fine either way. My view was that it was cash "gone" once I spent it and I would never see it again. If I get ANY of it back on resale I would be happy.

I have sold two small contracts and did make a TINY bit of money, but I figure even if I lose money I had great vacations and that's why I own!

 

[CarolA]

Look at the results in the ROFR thread. Face it, with very rare exceptions DVC has stopped ROFRing and the resale prices are dropping fast. I started a thread asking for those who got FOFRed ONLY to respond in the thread. So far there has only been one recent ROFR reported. Be aware of this when you buy!

Well, one other thing to consider,

This IS not the entire universe of DVC owners.

I have several friends/acquatiances who own and aren't even aware the DIS exists!

We tend to have a highly inflated view of ourselves as "represenative" of DVC owners. I actually doubt we are.

 

[janni518]

Well, one other thing to consider,

This IS not the entire universe of DVC owners.

I have several friends/acquatiances who own and aren't even aware the DIS exists!

We tend to have a highly inflated view of ourselves as "represenative" of DVC owners. I actually doubt we are.

My thoughts exactly! I know it's hard to believe but it's true.

I didn't buy my dvc as an investment but as a luxury. Unlike my home I don't expect to make money if I sell and in fact assumed I'll lose some. Sort of like selling a used car.

I'm still in the buying/add-on mode anyway.

 

[Brian Noble]

For some things, DIS is surely not representative. But, that might well make it the canary in the mine.

If you assume DIS resale buyers are *more* savvy than "average", then they are likely to try to push the ROFR floor more than is typical---and they are not hitting the floor.

What's more, Disney doesn't care if it's a DISer doing the buying or not---the ROFR decision is the ROFR decision. So, reports by DISers give real information into the decision making process.

 

[cogero]

I hope so I have been debating between the BLT and a resale at either BWV or BCV but would like a resale with points available now in a modest amount since we already own 270 at AKV and I haven't found one yet. I may need to call my guide to see if they have any in their inventory.

We are actually leaning towards BCV and BWV because of their Epcot location since that is my DDs favorite resonrt and since she is almost 7 and we have a little one (10months) we want to keep her happy.

 

[mydogdrew]

I have sold two contracts in the past month. Both small (40 SSR for $94 and 60 AKV for $98). Both had current points (none banked) and the buyers reimbursed the current dues. The market has slowed for 100+ point contracts. They will not be able to ROFR to support historical valuations in this economy. Expect lower resale prices and deeper developer discounts as a counter.

 

[moredisneyplease]

I agree that the inventory will continue to rise but i also agree that they probably wont drop all that much. Only time will tell!!

 

[Fenceman]

CarolA, You can buy DVC and have the value go down a little or you could have saved your money in the stock market and have it go down a lot.

I have more fun on vacation.

 

[abner1776]

If you bought DVC as an investment with the thought of using it for a few years and then reselling at a profit, then you get deserve to take a beating just like the stock market.

I, like most DVC'r,s bought with the intention of using DVC for my family and passing it on to our kids to use for their kids and with no expection of reselling, so resale value has no "value" to me. The frequency of ROFR by Disney will ebb and flow with the overall economy.

The problem with many timeshares is people purchase it, use it for a few years and then their interests and vacation plans change and they want to sell it, but while I knew that DVC was a timeshare, I did not purchase it for the same reasons as I would a normal timeshare, so I do not see likelyhood of ever selling it.

 

[pumpkinboy]

Look at the results in the ROFR thread. Face it, with very rare exceptions DVC has stopped ROFRing and the resale prices are dropping fast. I started a thread asking for those who got FOFRed ONLY to respond in the thread. So far there has only been one recent ROFR reported. Be aware of this when you buy!

Well, they have not given up on ROFR altogether. On another board (for fellow Owners of the Mouse) I have seen several recent posts of ROFR: one SSR contract was ROFRed at$63.75 per point which is understandable, and a stripped AKV contract was ROFRed at just under $90. This is in the past week.

Still, it's a good time to be in the market to buy a resale.

 

[missy2217]

My thoughts exactly! I know it's hard to believe but it's true.

I didn't buy my dvc as an investment but as a luxury. Unlike my home I don't expect to make money if I sell and in fact assumed I'll lose some. Sort of like selling a used car.

I'm still in the buying/add-on mode anyway.

I am with you janni518 on this one. We just closed recently on a resale and I could care lass if it has already dropped in value, I didn't purchase as an investment but as a vacation for me and my family.

 

[Belle & Ariel]

I can't see Disney letting prices drop too much because people would buy on the resale market instead of new properties from them.
When I told my guide I was looking at resale, he told me how AKV was cheaper from subtracting all the incentives to get down to $78 per point. To do this, he valued the developer points at $7000 which is way high, but it would realistically be mid eighties. Resale average right now is there--if they were to drop to say the upper 60's, who would buy new?
The higher the prices on resale, the smaller the gap between new resorts and the better chance of selling new.

 

[doconeill]

I think there is some sort of balance that Disney needs to strike with ROFR - I doubt it is solely to artificially bolster the market.

DVC, at some level, would rather have the inventory used than unused because they ROFR'd the points back in to inventory.

ROFR is more likely to be done on a supply/demand basis. If there is lots of interest in a sold-out resort, DVC will ROFR points in the right UY and resort in order to resell them at a reasonable profit, or if there is enough CRO interest, use them for cash rooms, and then sell them later.

If there isn't any interest (perhaps with all the new resorts coming out, or the economy, etc.), they are more likely to let them sell just so that they are used, fees are paid, etc.

Although them being used perhaps benefits Disney proper more so than DVC itself.

 

[princess z]

Hi All,
Sorry to change the subject...but is anyone bothered by the new DVC computer
system? They are no longer able to see any availability for their guests at non-home resorts until the actual date you are able to book. I think it is ridiculous. It makes it very difficult to plan in advance especially if you are involved in a Grand Gathering with non DVC members and they are looking to stay where you stay!