Resale prices don't seem that different....

[jodifla]

Doesn't look like the bottom dropped out to me.

Your thoughts?

 

[Dacky619]

I wouldn't have expected a drop already, it has only been a couple of days.

 

[DVCconvert]

I think we'll also need to get a sense of what is, or isn't, passing rofr over the next month or so to get a better picture on resale pricing.

 

[TisBit]

I don't expect prices to drop much at all, if any. Most people sell for a reason and usually set their prices to either get as much money out as possible or to pay off their loan (usually the loan). The biggest problem is people don't want or can to take a loss if they have a loan, so they will continue to ask the same price.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It will take much longer than a couple of days to see if any market adjustment is necessary. If people are no longer buying at the current prices then sellers will need to adjust but I think that as of this moment many people sold in the past few weeks and we'll only see prices drop on contracts that a seller has to sell. And that isn't all that different from what's been happening in the past.

 

[n2mm]

Way too early to see any change. Heck, I would like to look at a listing that wasn't filled with pending contracts. It would make searching for a contract a little easier. I think we'll see changes, but it may take several months before we do.

 

[mac_tlc]

I think the policy change brought out a lot of buyers and sellers. It may take a while to make up for that. I would expect a little price decrease, but not a lot. The value of DVC is still in using it at the DVC resorts.

mac_tlc

 

[chalee94]

I don't expect prices to drop much at all, if any. Most people sell for a reason and usually set their prices to either get as much money out as possible or to pay off their loan (usually the loan). The biggest problem is people don't want or can to take a loss if they have a loan, so they will continue to ask the same price.

this is a great strategy if you can be patient. some can wait but some need to unload the contract before they wind up with more annual dues for pts they are not using...and if you need to sell, then you need to take a price that a buyer is actually willing to pay.

the DVC resale market isn't very efficient, though. i would expect it to take a month or so to find a new equilibrium (which i guess will be a little lower as a few more buyers go direct to get cruise-ready pts, but not a lot lower since DVC resort use is where the value is.)

 

[mjc2003]

the resale market will be almost entirely dictated by Disney. Even with solid demand of late, prices have been falling except where Disney has laid a floor. Buyers will test the market to the downside, and some sellers will bite b/c they have to get rid of their contracts, or b/c they are worried about continued downside.

I suspect, for this reason, to see what turns out to be a token wave of ROFR by Disney. They cannot allow resale contracts to fall much further and simultaneously achieve their goal of increased Direct sales. The selling points just are not strong enough.

Either way, I think we should give it another 10 minutes before we draw any conclusions.

 

[Sandisw]

I think that we won't see things until new contracts come back up on the market.

So far, based on my limited search of the TSS, it doesn't look like many (if any) new ones have been posted since the 18th.

I also believe that many who wanted to sell now listed prior to the announcement to try and get them sold. Now, someone selling, may not be in such a rush.

I am still hoping that a small contract for the resort I want shows up soon--DH is still on board if the price is right!

 

[erikawolf2004]

I think/hope it is too early to tell. It seems like prices moved up after the announcement and am hoping they go down after a while....we would still love to buy a small contract, but need the price to be right. Someone mentioned a while back on one of the threads that they thought the best market would be around the end of the year before dues came due again...that people would sell cheap then, so they wouldn't have to pay thier dues...only the future will tell....but here is hoping.

 

[jodifla]

I think/hope it is too early to tell. It seems like prices moved up after the announcement and am hoping they go down after a while....we would still love to buy a small contract, but need the price to be right. Someone mentioned a while back on one of the threads that they thought the best market would be around the end of the year before dues came due again...that people would sell cheap then, so they wouldn't have to pay thier dues...only the future will tell....but here is hoping.

How cheap do you consider cheap??

I bought my OKW points 13 years ago, and they are selling for about what I paid for them still today.

 

[FindingFigment]

Prices will have to drop quite a bit to be a true drop. Since they went up during the selling frenzy, then it's only natural they'll need to come back down. But if they only go back to what they were, then that's not truly a 'drop'.

 

[n2mm]

I just wish the resell companies would just update their sites.

Just checked Fidelity and the lowest asking price are:

BWV $50 for 170 (w/banked points)
OKW $52 for 100 pts.
SSR $60 for 150 pts.

The BWV contract is a great contract but a Sept. UY -- I'm an April UY. I would've jumped on this one for sure.

 

[sweetdana]

Due to the serious demand that happen making sure to catch the 03-20th deadline. The supply went down. It will take until the supply fills up again before you will notice a drop. I also think BLT and BC will have the biggest drops as they have the least amount of diff between prices. IE at 35$ a point maybe you buy direct just incase.. but at 70$ diff a point with say SSR, or AK another 5$ may not change your mind.

Time will tell.. Look back in 3 months and see what is up and that will be when the rush sales died down.

 

[dismagiclover]

I just wish the resell companies would just update their sites.

Just checked Fidelity and the lowest asking price are:

BWV $50 for 170 (w/banked points)
OKW $52 for 100 pts.
SSR $60 for 150 pts.

The BWV contract is a great contract but a Sept. UY -- I'm an April UY. I would've jumped on this one for sure.

Someone did jump on that BWV contract. I called on Monday afternoon and they had already sold it that morning. Or I would have jumped on it!

 

[n2mm]

Someone did jump on that BWV contract. I called on Monday afternoon and they had already sold it that morning. Or I would have jumped on it!

That's funny! What a deal for sure! too bad you missed it.

 

[gkrykewy]

but at 70$ diff a point with say SSR, or AK another 5$ may not change your mind.

Where on earth are you seeing $70pp difference?

 

[Greysword]

I wonder how low DVD will let SSR drop before they intercede in a big way. If the price per point drops into the $40s, I can see DVD buying as many contracts as they can get in this range and turning part of the resort into a Moderate overflow ("upgrade" moderate resort customer to allow more capacity at those resorts). They can even use SSR to fill excess demand from the new value suites being built.

Since Disney already made all of their money for the resort's construction, this would be an inexpensive way to add hotel rooms to their portfolio.

- Chris

 

[sweetdana]

Where on earth are you seeing $70pp difference?

SSR Direct is 140$ per point... (with discounts on large contract I think you can get down to about 115$ per point). Resale.. 63 - 70$ a point. .. so 45$ on the lowest end difference direct and resale .. and 77$ on the highest end direct verses resale. ..

I don't think I can post the web page as it is not timeshare store. If you need it PM me.