Renter 5,000+ point Firesale?

[BlakeNJ]

Ok, it's the newbie again...

So, when you refer to "transfering" points, do you mean if you are short a few points for your next vacation, instead of borrowing from the next year's points are you refering to DVC members who have several contacts at diff. resorts and use say their VWL points and transfer them over to their BCV points? Therefore giving them a large amount of "BCV" points that may not be allotted by the resort causing overbooking for those who simply want to use their only DVC package at the BCV....

I am trying to wrap my brain around this so bear with me!

Blakely

 

[dianeschlicht]

Ok, it's the newbie again...

So, when you refer to "transfering" points, do you mean if you are short a few points for your next vacation, instead of borrowing from the next year's points are you refering to DVC members who have several contacts at diff. resorts and use say their VWL points and transfer them over to their BCV points? Therefore giving them a large amount of "BCV" points that may not be allotted by the resort causing overbooking for those who simply want to use their only DVC package at the BCV....

I am trying to wrap my brain around this so bear with me!

Blakely

Almost, but not quite. It seems that is what happens when folks transfer in from OTHER owners. The computer doesn't seem to keep them as home resort points, so essentially they change from one resort to the other when they are transfered. That puts the total at that resort out of whack.

 

[salmoneous]

Random thoughts:

1) The transfer "glitch" doesn't results in a resort being overbooked or anything. All it does is allow points that should only have a 7-month window to have an 11-month window. Not saying that's a good thing, just maybe not as bad as it sounds as written in some posts.

2) As far as I know, we have no idea how rampant transfer-glitch abuse is.

3) The number of obvious big renters is totally negligible compared to the total number of points/reservations.

4) If there is significant, systematic abuse from big renters going on, it has to be going on in private. Anyone want to put on a tin-foil hat and come up with a theory of major travel agency controlling 100,000's of points and quietly renting them out to private/business clients?

5) I seriously doubt the contracts we are seeing for sale today have anything to do with the MS letter than went out.

6) The resale marketplace seems to be over-valuing stripped contracts, and undervaluing "fat" contracts. The real bargains out there are in the contracts with banked points.

 

[Spine_DR]

On other forums and old threads have been people mention that MS didnt let them use the transfered points at the 11month window. There is a system (a poor one) when points are transfered they are given a modifier in the computer and its up to the MS rep to see the modifier and stop the person from booking those ponts at the 11 month window, not sure how rampant this is I have never evan tranfered points.

 

[Anjelica]

Random thoughts:

1) The transfer "glitch" doesn't results in a resort being overbooked or anything. All it does is allow points that should only have a 7-month window to have an 11-month window. Not saying that's a good thing, just maybe not as bad as it sounds as written in some posts.
.

Maybe I'm not getting it but couldn't it cause an "overbooking" of points if they transfer points for xx resort and they are morphed into yy resort?

Below is assuming one UY only:
Let say for example (and I know this is very very small numbers but for the sake of an example) BCV has a total of 10,000 points for total use. Lets say one renter/transferee has 100 points of those total 10,000 points and he/she gets transfered into their account another 1000 non BCV points which "morph" into BCV points. Now you have a total of 11,000 possible BCV points running around in the system when it was only meant to have 10,000.

Let me know if this is way off base or if I am missing something but if you do the above in a larger scale I would "think" there very well could be an issue with premium dates or high demand times, etc.

 

[allflgirl]

Maybe I'm not getting it but couldn't it cause an "overbooking" of points if they transfer points for xx resort and they are morphed into yy resort?

Below is assuming one UY only:
Let say for example (and I know this is very very small numbers but for the sake of an example) BCV has a total of 10,000 points for total use. Lets say one renter/transferee has 100 points of those total 10,000 points and he/she gets transfered into their account another 1000 non BCV points which "morph" into BCV points. Now you have a total of 11,000 possible BCV points running around in the system when it was only meant to have 10,000.

Let me know if this is way off base or if I am missing something but if you do the above in a larger scale I would "think" there very well could be an issue with premium dates or high demand times, etc.

You're right on the money! I don't think it's a 11/7 month issue, I think it's the fact that SSR/OKW/ETC. points are transferred to a BCV owner's account and then become BCV points. If the total allotment for BCV is 10,000 points in total, again just talking in general terms, if 3,000 points from other resorts are transferred into a BCV owners accounts and they are not identified as other resort points, then therically there may be 13,000 BCV points in the system for that year. If only 10,000 points can be rented in total for one year, then how can they possibly use all 13,000 points?

 

[Spine_DR]

Point morphing means that the resort morphed to like BCV fills up before the 7 month mark since 7 months and after every single DVC point can be used at that resort anyway. What this means is that for poplular times like F&W fest BCV could be booked and many owners of BCV wouldn't evan get res at 10 months.

 

[Doctor P]

Random thoughts:

1) The transfer "glitch" doesn't results in a resort being overbooked or anything. All it does is allow points that should only have a 7-month window to have an 11-month window. Not saying that's a good thing, just maybe not as bad as it sounds as written in some posts.

2) As far as I know, we have no idea how rampant transfer-glitch abuse is.

3) The number of obvious big renters is totally negligible compared to the total number of points/reservations.

4) If there is significant, systematic abuse from big renters going on, it has to be going on in private. Anyone want to put on a tin-foil hat and come up with a theory of major travel agency controlling 100,000's of points and quietly renting them out to private/business clients?

5) I seriously doubt the contracts we are seeing for sale today have anything to do with the MS letter than went out.

6) The resale marketplace seems to be over-valuing stripped contracts, and undervaluing "fat" contracts. The real bargains out there are in the contracts with banked points.

I think you are wrong on every one of your statements. I will just take the first one--the points are not only changing home resort, but also use year. In the case of a transfer I made a few years back before knowing about this glitch, the points went from points that were expiring in 10 days to points that expired 11 months from now (and could be banked to allow them to expire 23 months in the future). The demand imbalances are larger than you could ever imagine, especially given the patterns of reservations used by the commercial renters. And the effects are much greater than those evident from the proportion of points that might be taken up by commercial renters. And the number of points being controlled would appear to be in the tens if not hundreds of thousands by some of the commercial renters (some of whom are clearly in the real estate business by reading their ads). One other restriction that could be imposed (and I believe this is consistent with the POS language) is that you may never at any time have more than three years worth of points in your account.

 

[salmoneous]

Let's review how all this works...

Assume there are 18,000,000 total DVC points
Assume that there are 1,000,000 points at the BCV
Assume that for one week (let's pick July 4th) there are 20,000 points at the BCV

You already have a situation where there are 18 million possible points that could try and book July 4th week at BCV. 1 million of those points get an 11-month window. 17 million get a 7-month window.

All the transfer glitch does is change the situation to maybe (and this wildly over exaggerates the glitch) 2 million points having an 11-month window at that week, and 16 million points having a 7 month window.

It get even worse when you consider borrowing and banking.

As long as the resorts are linked in the current system, the only thing a morphed point does is change the booking window for that point. Even if no points morph, there are way more points out there that could book at a resort than the point capacity of the resort.

 

[allflgirl]

Point morphing means that the resort morphed to like BCV fills up before the 7 month mark since 7 months and after every single DVC point can be used at that resort anyway. What this means is that for poplular times like F&W fest BCV could be booked and many owners of BCV wouldn't evan get res at 10 months.

Good point! I guess all this point morphing makes it hard on those who own at BCV as well. I hope Disney get's their act together and start enforcing the home resort status on transferred points. Maybe we'll get that e-mail soon and more stripped contracts will go on sale.

 

[JimMIA]

2) As far as I know, we have no idea how rampant transfer-glitch abuse is.

You're right, we don't know. However DVC knows, and it's a serious enough problem to them to cause them to step in and take action. That action could be because abuse was skewing the system, or it could just be a response to member complaints.

3) The number of obvious big renters is totally negligible compared to the total number of points/reservations.

I agree when you look at the entire picture. However, that doesn't mean that large "patterns of rental behavior," especially if they involve "morphed points" aren't a significant problem at some resorts at some times of the year.

Even though the overall number of points rented might be relatively small, concentration of those rentals at a resort like BCV during F&W or VWL during the holidays could be a significant problem for owners of those resorts.

5) I seriously doubt the contracts we are seeing for sale today have anything to do with the MS letter than went out.

Again I agree with you, but I see another possibility. Identifying big renters, and differentiating between large renters who are straight up and those who morph points and abuse the system, are both simple to do.

I'd bet the Disney auditors did that and a few strategic phone calls were placed. I've been saying from the start that DVC would not cancel innocent renters' ressies, but they certainly can stop rental abuses by restricting the use of accounts which are problematic.

 

[crisi]

The other thing that was happening was some "less than I consider ethical but your ethics may differ" bargaining techniques.

Lets say I have 75 BWV points I can use. And I'm past my banking window. And I figure "I might as well rent them for dues." Those are distressed points, and they get "new life" once transferred - renting them they are only worth maybe $7 a point - transferring them, due to the glitch, they should be worth full value. That's, IMO, ethical, the owner really doesn't understand the value the transferree is getting - and the points ARE distressed.

Now the "less than I consider ethical" part. That can be found over it the "charity cases" thread. There are a number of commerical renters who buy points from DVC owners getting a discount due to a sob stories of some sort. "Help my family go to Disney World for a once in a lifetime trip! My mother has terminal cancer, we just spent all our money adopting a little disabled child from China, and my husband is about to be deployed to Iraq, having to give up his minstry work spreading the message of Christ to Bosnian refugees." They then take these points that people have discounted from the goodness of their hearts, and sell them over on eBay for $14 a point.

 

[salmoneous]

What this means is that for poplular times like F&W fest BCV could be booked and many owners of BCV wouldn't evan get res at 10 months.

But this could happen anyway without any point morphing.

Look, I realize I'm wrong about a lot of my random theories - so don't take this as argument, just discussion. But what makes people think the difficulty in getting F&W is caused by morphed points? Isn't the amount of morphed points small compared to the fact that 52 weeks are sold, each having an equal shot at the handful of most popular weeks?

 

[crisi]

Let's review how all this works...

Assume there are 18,000,000 total DVC points
Assume that there are 1,000,000 points at the BCV
Assume that for one week (let's pick July 4th) there are 20,000 points at the BCV

You already have a situation where there are 18 million possible points that could try and book July 4th week at BCV. 1 million of those points get an 11-month window. 17 million get a 7-month window.

All the transfer glitch does is change the situation to maybe (and this wildly over exaggerates the glitch) 2 million points having an 11-month window at that week, and 16 million points having a 7 month window.

It get even worse when you consider borrowing and banking.

As long as the resorts are linked in the current system, the only thing a morphed point does is change the booking window for that point. Even if no points morph, there are way more points out there that could book at a resort than the point capacity of the resort.

You are right in that it doesn't create overbooking - what it does is cheat home resort owners out of as many "spots" as they should have.

Let's change the conversation:

Disney Dining decrees that onsite guests and AP holders get to make reservations 180 days out. Day guests get to make reservations 60 days out.

Bob owns over at Bonnett Creek. Loves Disney, didn't buy DVC. He makes his reservations at a Disney resort at 190 days, gets his reservations for all the popular spots at 180 days by calling first thing in the morning, cancels his resort reservation.

As anyone who makes ADRs knows, popular venues book quickly - maybe not at 180. Under this (imagined) scheme, any Disney guest is entitled to the window, but Bob isn't. Now, putting a system in place to cancel Bob's dining reservation when he cancels his hotel won't suddenly let everyone eat at Le Cellier - but it lets one more person entitled to the advantage to get their reservation.

Ever have the experience of standing in line for a character, and someone cuts in front of you. And you think "no big deal" - and then the character leaves right before they get to you - the cutter has gotten the autograph and photo, but you are left standing? It isn't nice.

 

[Spine_DR]

There is some truth to that Sal, mine is only a theory and prob doesnt contibute to booked resorts as much as 70% of BCV points owners using there points for one time of the year.

 

[salmoneous]

You are right in that it doesn't create overbooking - what it does is cheat home resort owners out of as many "spots" as they should have.

I didn't mean to suggest that morphed points don't cause problems - especially the missing-spot problem you mention. I can believe that only 50% of BCV owners who want to stay during F&W are able to get the rooms they want. If it weren't for morphed point people "jumping their place in line", maybe 55% or even 60% would be able to get that week. Especially for the people who aren't getting their choice due to line-jumpers, morphed points are a problem that should be fixed.

 

[MIDisFan]

I'm not sure if someone from the Timeshare store will confirm this, but I think a lot of those contracts that are stripped have been listed for more than a week. I have been checking the site at least once a day for new listings for about 3 weeks, and I know those BCV listings have been on there for more than a week.

 

[rinkwide]

..."Help my family go to Disney World for a once in a lifetime trip! My mother has terminal cancer, we just spent all our money adopting a little disabled child from China, and my husband is about to be deployed to Iraq, having to give up his minstry work spreading the message of Christ to Bosnian refugees."...

Wow, that's a good one. Mind if I use it?

 

[JimMIA]

But this could happen anyway without any point morphing.

Look, I realize I'm wrong about a lot of my random theories - so don't take this as argument, just discussion. But what makes people think the difficulty in getting F&W is caused by morphed points? Isn't the amount of morphed points small compared to the fact that 52 weeks are sold, each having an equal shot at the handful of most popular weeks?

Again, yes...but.

Sure F&W is tough. If a BCV owner falls asleep at the switch and fails to get the ressie because other legitimate owners beat them to it, that's just a case of "You snooze, you lose." If I can't get a BCV ressie because I don't own there, that's just a case of the 11/7 month windows working the way they were designed to work.

But if someone owns a 25-point contract at BCV, and they transfer in 200 points from VB and then make an 11-month ressie because of morphed points, they have cheated another BCV owner out of a reservation to which they were entitled. Forget the total number of points in the galaxy -- there is a finite number of room nights available, and any of those which get taken illegitimately could hurt legitimate members. Almost certainly, any room nights taken by morphing during peak times will hurt legitimate members.

 

[Fitswimmer]

OMG! I would never even think of this! People are really unbelievable.

There are a number of commerical renters who buy points from DVC owners getting a discount due to a sob stories of some sort. "Help my family go to Disney World for a once in a lifetime trip! My mother has terminal cancer, we just spent all our money adopting a little disabled child from China, and my husband is about to be deployed to Iraq, having to give up his minstry work spreading the message of Christ to Bosnian refugees." They then take these points that people have discounted from the goodness of their hearts, and sell them over on eBay for $14 a point.