Recorded deeds October- December 2023 BLT/POLY/RIV/CCV

[tom1944]

I assumed February was the original date for sales. The numbers are significantly higher for February.

I see 193 total BLT contracts for sale and 99 are February. The next highest is August with 19

 

[tom1944]

Are these considered loaded contracts?

JackosinDIS---$126.5-$20881-160-BLT-Jun-0/22, 94/23, 320/24, 160/25-Seller pay MF ‘23- sent 9/23, passed 10/5

MaggieSqrl---$132-$22500-160-BLT-Aug-0/22, 320/23, 160/24, 160/25- sent 9/22, passed 10/5

 

[DanCali]

Are these considered loaded contracts?

JackosinDIS---$126.5-$20881-160-BLT-Jun-0/22, 94/23, 320/24, 160/25-Seller pay MF ‘23- sent 9/23, passed 10/5

MaggieSqrl---$132-$22500-160-BLT-Aug-0/22, 320/23, 160/24, 160/25- sent 9/22, passed 10/5

The second one definitely is - has all of the 2022 points banked into 2023 (or would have expired).

The first one I'd say is pretty loaded as well but in a weird way. All 2023 were banked into 2024 and 94 out of 160 2022 points are were banked into 2023.

 

[tom1944]

The second one definitely is - has all of the 2022 points banked into 2023 (or would have expired).

The first one I'd say is pretty loaded as well but in a weird way. All 2023 were banked into 2024 and 94 out of 160 2022 points are were banked into 2023.

I agree. Even loaded the price is on the lower end.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I agree. Even loaded the price is on the lower end.

I agree mine is on the lower end, but was slightly lucky with this one as it was a motivated / fed-up seller. It had been on the market for nearly 6 months at a much higher price plus they bought direct in 2009 so obviously felt like they were still getting a decent price compared to the $95ish they paid 14 years ago (and having had all that use). I’m not sure it’s generally reflective of where the price is going (I hope!)

 

[tom1944]

I agree mine is on the lower end, but was slightly lucky with this one as it was a motivated / fed-up seller. It had been on the market for nearly 6 months at a much higher price plus they bought direct in 2009 so obviously felt like they were still getting a decent price compared to the $95ish they paid 14 years ago (and having had all that use). I’m not sure it’s generally reflective of where the price is going (I hope!)

Your results mean I will bid on some contracts that have been on the market for around 6 months. No matter what the list price is.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Your results mean I will bid on some contracts that have been on the market for around 6 months. No matter what the list price is.

Yes—the hit rate is certainly lower, but sometimes it’s where you get the luckiest. In my opinion, it takes like 2 minutes tops to fill out the form to make an offer, so no harm in trying, as long as you don’t mind the occasional emotional broker response.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

But is that something consistent (i.e., did DVD sell more Feb UY contracts than others)? Or just a temporary aberration you see in the resale market snapshot as of this month and it could be totally different in 3-6 months?

For example, when I was looking for a Poly contract 2-3 months ago, there were very few March or June contracts, which is what I wanted. But there were a lot of December ones available. As of today, there are still a lot of December ones, still very few March ones. However, there are now quite a few June contracts which is very different from what I saw in the summer. So, unless DVD sold way more of a certain use year, things should average out over time.

I can see use year making a difference at a resort like BWV or BCV where they may be more demand for the Fall (F&W) so a June or August use year may command a premium. But I haven't looked into that since I'm not looking to buy there.

BLT was heavy on being assigned a Feb UY. AKV - it was Dec. The earliest DVC resorts were much more even.

DVCnews.com has charts showing UY's for a lot of the resorts if you search there.

 

[tom1944]

Yes—the hit rate is certainly lower, but sometimes it’s where you get the luckiest. In my opinion, it takes like 2 minutes tops to fill out the form to make an offer, so no harm in trying, as long as you don’t mind the occasional emotional broker response.

I will probably know more about the average sale price of a BLT contract than the brokers seeing that I am tracking every deed for months. Their emotional response will come from ignorance.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Hey @Galactic Reversal have you seen this thread? Thought you might find it interesting to see how it compares with the data we are seeing on the ROFR thread.

I hadn't thanks! My problem with using the deeds is that (as others have pointed out) it doesn't take into account the available points. There's so much volume though the averages are useful. I have so many projects, but I'll admit looking into scraping this info is tempting.

 

[tom1944]

I hadn't thanks! My problem with using the deeds is that (as others have pointed out) it doesn't take into account the available points. There's so much volume though the averages are useful. I have so many projects, but I'll admit looking into scraping this info is tempting.

I can match some of the deeds to the ROFR thread.

I believe we will see available points do that make as much of a difference as people believe.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

I can match some of the deeds to the ROFR thread.

I believe we will see available points do that make as much of a difference as people believe.

That's another reason I haven't tried scraping the OC site. I don't want to expose people's identities by making it very easy to match up the ROFR data with the OC data.

It doesn't make as big a difference as it should that's for sure.

 

[sndral]

BLT was heavy on being assigned a Feb UY. AKV - it was Dec. The earliest DVC resorts were much more even.

DVCnews.com has charts showing UY's for a lot of the resorts if you search there.

I used the use year charts when I was deciding on my first resale contract, I knew I didn’t want to mess around w/ more than 1 use year & that I was likely to add on in a couple of years, so I went for the highest % use year the resorts I wanted had in common figuring there’d be more availability when it came time to add on.

 

[tom1944]

I used the use year charts when I was deciding on my first resale contract, I knew I didn’t want to mess around w/ more than 1 use year & that I was likely to add on in a couple of years, so I went for the highest % use year the resorts I wanted had in common figuring there’d be more availability when it came time to add on.

That makes sense.

I never thought of it when I originally started my research.

I am comparing prices from all use years on listing by each broker.

If a broker lists contracts with different use years but the same point distribution for significantly different prices I will use the lower price when I decide what my bid will be.

 

[tom1944]

That's another reason I haven't tried scraping the OC site. I don't want to expose people's identities by making it very easy to match up the ROFR data with the OC data.

It doesn't make as big a difference as it should that's for sure.

I worked for the government so everything about my financial life is public for anyone who wants to know it so public record filings don’t bother me.

People with mortgages, liens and a myriad of other transactions should know that companies are using those records everyday.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I worked for the government so everything about my financial life is public for anyone who wants to know it so public record filings don’t bother me.

People with mortgages, liens and a myriad of other transactions should know that companies are using those records everyday.

Tom, have you seen @Galactic Reversal’s site? I do think it would be of interest to you if you are in the market for resale points.

I wasn’t suggesting combing the products, though I do think it’s nice to combat the chorus of people who think that all low offers on ROFR must be fake or exaggerated, etc. What I find most striking (so far) is that the mean price that Tom is pulling from deeds doesn’t seem higher than what gets reported on ROFR from those resorts.

While the ROFR site might have slightly higher precision per point cost (with adjusting for stacked/stripped points), Tom’s method of pulling ALL deeds of a certain size is more comprehensive information about true market clearing price/range (presumably the market price 4-8 weeks ago, since it takes at least a month from contract agreement to recording date.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

There were 16 BWV sales in the 4 days and 13 BCV sales. It is more than I want to add to my plate since I am not really interested in purchasing either.


I can prepare a tutorial on how I do the search for anyone who is interested in looking at resorts they are interested in.

If anyone is interested let me know. I will make it a different thread.

No! I absolutely wouldn't want you doing more than you already are! Appreciate the research. I'll definitely be spot checking BW and BC contracts as I go. As far as all contracts in general I've been watching the DVC aggregator every day for months now so I'm feeling pretty good about knowing prices both on the high end and low end. I wish there was an aggregator site that simply showed final price paid! Just make life simple for us all!

 

[intamin]

No! I absolutely wouldn't want you doing more than you already are! Appreciate the research. I'll definitely be spot checking BW and BC contracts as I go. As far as all contracts in general I've been watching the DVC aggregator every day for months now so I'm feeling pretty good about knowing prices both on the high end and low end. I wish there was an aggregator site that simply showed final price paid! Just make life simple for us all!

Ditto. I use the app from the sponsor site and I can't even tell if the notification it comes back with saying X contract sold for 130 per point is the final price or the original asking which is pretty annoying.

 

[DanCali]

Ditto. I use the app from the sponsor site and I can't even tell if the notification it comes back with saying X contract sold for 130 per point is the final price or the original asking which is pretty annoying.

It’s the original price.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It’s the original price.

Are you saying the "sold report" tells you the list price and not the actual transaction price, e.g., a BCV villa is listed at $150/pt, sells at $125/pt and they say "sold at $150/pt"?