Record attendance at the parks

I don't know the actual numbers and don't really want to look them up-- but if Disney's total attendance is 5 times the attendance of uni, then in total head count, disney still increased more than universal. I can't see how this represents people taking days they used to spend at Disney and going to universal. Of course it is possible, but not necessarily represented.

This comment is not concerning what has driven the increases, but who is included in the increases ( D only, D and U, or U only, but mostly, D to U converts)

Market share doesn't tell you what motivates people to visit and their changing habits.

And why do you question the driving force of Disneys increase ( rising economic factors) but not Uni? Probably just an oversight.

If Disney's increase in attendance is equal to or less than the overall Orlando tourism increase and in line with what the industry is seeing as a whole - that would indicate it is more economically driven than "Disney"-driven.

If Uni is exceeding Orlando tourism and tourism industry figures by 10%, that would indicate it's increase is Uni/Comcast driven.

Disney's is still the big driver for Orlando tourism, no doubt about that. That's where the marketshare loss along with the Uni marketshare gain points directly to Uni getting days away from Disney.

There are multiple articles and industry analysts comments out there discussing it in good detail. It is what it is.
 
If Disney's increase in attendance is equal to or less than the overall Orlando tourism increase and in line with what the industry is seeing as a whole - that would indicate it is more economically driven than "Disney"-driven.

If Uni is exceeding Orlando tourism and tourism industry figures by 10%, that would indicate it's increase is Uni/Comcast driven.

Disney's is still the big driver for Orlando tourism, no doubt about that. That's where the marketshare loss along with the Uni marketshare gain points directly to Uni getting days away from Disney.

There are multiple articles and industry analysts comments out there discussing it in good detail. It is what it is.

If you want to take that train of thought one step further, It's not Disney that's the big driver for Orlando tourism. It's the MAGIC KINGDOM. If AECOM is to be believed, in 2013 the MK had 18 million visitors. The other Disney theme parks had 10-11 Million visitors each and Universal/IOA and 7-8 million each. I'm betting for a lot of family, a trip to Disney means a trip to the Magic Kingdom and they visit the other parks because after the 3rd day extra days at Disney are dirt cheap compared to going somewhere else.

To further support that MK attendance was up 6% (in line with Orlando as a whole) the other 3 parks were up 1.5-2%. (Universal and IOA were up 14% and 2% respectively but IOA had had massive growth in 2010 and 2011 with the opening of the first WWOHP). 2015 could be a rough year for Disney attendance with AK construction still going on and not 1/3 of DHS closed and presumably going under construction for who know how long.

The question is with Universal continuing to step up it's game now that it's owned by Comcast, will the draw change to the MK and Universal. How well Disney does with Avatarland and whatever is happening at DHS (Pixar place expansion, Carsland, Starwars land ?) could be more important than any of us want to admit.
 
If you want to take that train of thought one step further, It's not Disney that's the big driver for Orlando tourism. It's the MAGIC KINGDOM. If AECOM is to be believed, in 2013 the MK had 18 million visitors. The other Disney theme parks had 10-11 Million visitors each and Universal/IOA and 7-8 million each. I'm betting for a lot of family, a trip to Disney means a trip to the Magic Kingdom and they visit the other parks because after the 3rd day extra days at Disney are dirt cheap compared to going somewhere else.

To further support that MK attendance was up 6% (in line with Orlando as a whole) the other 3 parks were up 1.5-2%. (Universal and IOA were up 14% and 2% respectively but IOA had had massive growth in 2010 and 2011 with the opening of the first WWOHP). 2015 could be a rough year for Disney attendance with AK construction still going on and not 1/3 of DHS closed and presumably going under construction for who know how long.

The question is with Universal continuing to step up it's game now that it's owned by Comcast, will the draw change to the MK and Universal. How well Disney does with Avatarland and whatever is happening at DHS (Pixar place expansion, Carsland, Starwars land ?) could be more important than any of us want to admit.

I see where you're going and you're right.

2015 is going to be very interesting attendance-wise just based on what's happening at DHS and DAK.

It wouldn't be surprising to see DHS become a big special events playground to get guests there - fireworks, Frozen, etc. Some of that's been telegraphed already.

And the Frozen overlay at Maelstrom (much as I don't like it) makes more sense when you look at how much extra attendance MK could pick up in 2015-16, just based on how much capacity is now down at DHS.

"Get'em to EPCOT...!" you can almost hear them say when this issue came up.

They absolutely need to do something at DHS. But the follow-on issues it creates in the interim by moving more to MK (or worse) moving guests to do more off-site, is something they're going to have to be creative about.

As far as Uni, IOA recieved that big bump with WWoHP. Now USF got that big 18% bump. Their '15 numbers are going to be very interesting.

I know some will jump in saying that "Disney's so much bigger...!'

But that's the point - that massive infrastructure is not built to handle a decrease in Length-of-Stay, or off-siters doing 2 days at Disney instead of 4.
 
This is kind of a side thought but if Universal attendance is up 18% and growing aren,t the lines there getting longer with increased wait times? If people are leaving Disney because of longer lines are they not going to run into the same thing at Universal. Also how much more land does Universal have for growth to help with the increase in attendance. Down the line the extensive room Disney has for expansion could be a big game changer IMO.
 

If Disney's increase in attendance is equal to or less than the overall Orlando tourism increase and in line with what the industry is seeing as a whole - that would indicate it is more economically driven than "Disney"-driven.

yes


If Uni is exceeding Orlando tourism and tourism industry figures by 10%, that would indicate it's increase is Uni/Comcast driven.

yes

Disney's is still the big driver for Orlando tourism, no doubt about that. That's where the marketshare loss along with the Uni marketshare gain points directly to Uni getting days away from Disney.

Still missing my point. I was not questioning that uni is gaining market share-- I was questioning rteetz's statement that people are now splitting their stay between D and U. There is no info to support this. Sure many people are going to uni for HP. No info that they are doing this as opposed to Disney.

It's not a big deal.



There are multiple articles and industry analysts comments out there discussing it in good detail. It is what it is.

.
 
Interesting thoughts on the whole Uni/WDW thing. I'd be inclined to think that WDW wins even when Uni introduces something new. I'd bet that anybody flying into Orlando for a new attraction at Uni (or Sea World for that matter) is going to also spend time at Disney.
 
Interesting thoughts on the whole Uni/WDW thing. I'd be inclined to think that WDW wins even when Uni introduces something new. I'd bet that anybody flying into Orlando for a new attraction at Uni (or Sea World for that matter) is going to also spend time at Disney.
Exactly my point. Disney is always going to have people going but universal keeps seeing attendance increases.

I also agree with others MK is the big driver. A lot of people skip parks like AK or DHS and with large amounts of construction that could continue. MK is the highest attended theme park in the world .
 
The lengths people go to discredit WDW here is very amusing. Just a week or two ago, it was....

They are in panic mode thats is why they are converting to DVC, because occupancy is down. Also, all of the construction rumors are because their numbers are going to show they are down in Q4, just wait.... those numbers are going to tell the tale.

And now, when occupancy rates show 5% increase (and even up from pre AoA levels), and record attendance is reported, its only because tourism is up and it won't last. And Uni is up higher and taking days away from them. Its much easier to pull a higher pecentage when you have 15-17 million attendance than when you're at 50-55 million. But Disney is still increasing headcount more, with record attendance, so is Uni really stealing guests away?

I know I know, its the Doom and Gloom Board here we are on... WDW is about to topple.
 
The lengths people go to discredit WDW here is very amusing. Just a week or two ago, it was.... They are in panic mode thats is why they are converting to DVC, because occupancy is down. Also, all of the construction rumors are because their numbers are going to show they are down in Q4, just wait.... those numbers are going to tell the tale. And now, when occupancy rates show 5% increase (and even up from pre AoA levels), and record attendance is reported, its only because tourism is up and it won't last. And Uni is up higher and taking days away from them. Its much easier to pull a higher pecentage when you have 15-17 million attendance than when you're at 50-55 million. But Disney is still increasing headcount more, with record attendance, so is Uni really stealing guests away? I know I know, its the Doom and Gloom Board here we are on... WDW is about to topple.
The amounts that people go to say WDW can do no wrong is amusing and amazing. It's a fact that disney and WDW are doing well but there aspects that could do better no doubt. They are building DVC and disney isn't going to come out and admit occupancy is down and they are converting for that reason that would be stupid for a company to do. I'm very confused by your construction rumors comment. They have plenty of construction going on and DHS is going to get something they have to they just closed a third of that park, if you don't do something that is going to drive people away. Record attendance is reported every year that's nothing new and your main attendance stream is at MK. Disney and universal never ever release real attendance numbers we can only go off the estimated numbers released by outside companies. Tourism is up that's a fact orlando as a hole is seeing a lot more people. Universal is up higher, they saw a larger increase than disney which makes sense they just opened a big expansion and a brand new hotel. 15-17 and 50-55 million? Where are you getting these numbers? Universal parks see between 7-8 million each. DHS and AK 10 million, EPCOT 11-12 million, MK 18 million and again these are only estimations we don't know the real numbers. MK always sees the largest increases and it is the most visited park in the world. DHS, AK, and EPCOT haven't seen big additions in years. MK just opened an expansion attendance increases there make a lot of sense. MK attendance increases make up for a large majority of the WDW attendance increases. Almost double the people visit MK than DHS and AK, disney needs to do something about that and they are, Pandora, and whatever is to come at DHS (pixar, Star Wars). No one, I repeat no one here is saying WDW is going to topple I don't understand where you are getting this from. I am active on the disboards and the wdwmagic boards and I find the disboards to have more of the oh disney I love you you can do no wrong crowd and wdwmagic to be the realistic disney by the numbers they need to do this this and this kind of thing. I'm not saying everyone is like that but just a general consensus.
 
This is kind of a side thought but if Universal attendance is up 18% and growing aren,t the lines there getting longer with increased wait times? If people are leaving Disney because of longer lines are they not going to run into the same thing at Universal. Also how much more land does Universal have for growth to help with the increase in attendance. Down the line the extensive room Disney has for expansion could be a big game changer IMO.
You're right about Universal, but Universal is also introducing new attractions, hotels, and dining venues. The parks are becoming more crowded, but at least they are giving their guests new experiences instead of just new frustrations...FP+
 
The lengths people go to discredit WDW here is very amusing. Just a week or two ago, it was....

They are in panic mode thats is why they are converting to DVC, because occupancy is down. Also, all of the construction rumors are because their numbers are going to show they are down in Q4, just wait.... those numbers are going to tell the tale.

And now, when occupancy rates show 5% increase (and even up from pre AoA levels), and record attendance is reported, its only because tourism is up and it won't last. And Uni is up higher and taking days away from them. Its much easier to pull a higher pecentage when you have 15-17 million attendance than when you're at 50-55 million. But Disney is still increasing headcount more, with record attendance, so is Uni really stealing guests away?

I know I know, its the Doom and Gloom Board here we are on... WDW is about to topple.
When I read what Jay Rasulo said re Theme Parks, it doesn't seem all that great:
Higher operating income at our domestic operations was driven by increased guest spending and attendance, partially offset by higher costs and lower vacation club ownership sales. The increase in guest
spending was primarily due to higher average ticket prices for theme park admissions and for sailings at our cruise line and increased food, beverage and merchandise spending. Higher costs reflected increased costs for MyMagic+ and the absence of an offset in the prior-year quarter from a property sale, partially offset by lower pension and postretirement medical costs. Decreased vacation club ownership sales reflected the prior-year success of The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, for which sales
commenced at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2013
.
There's lower DVC purchases, the increased revenue is due largely to increased ticket prices ( so merchandise isn't flying off the shelves), they're also attributing decreased pension and post retirement medical costs. So what does this mean? Have they cut pensions and medical plans? It's not exactly a winning report. Also, MDE continues to be a big expense.
I don't see this as a glowing report. Disney will reach a point where they can no longer raise ticket prices to increase their revenue. Their merchandise is pitiful, and people have been complaining about this for years. You can crow with delight over this report, but the profits Disney is listing are not sustainable. They need the AK, DHS, and Epcot renovations. Somehow, I don't think these are going to come fast enough for them to keep putting a positive spin on their quarterly earnings.
 
The amounts that people go to say WDW can do no wrong is amusing and amazing. It's a fact that disney and WDW are doing well but there aspects that could do better no doubt. They are building DVC and disney isn't going to come out and admit occupancy is down and they are converting for that reason that would be stupid for a company to do. I'm very confused by your construction rumors comment. They have plenty of construction going on and DHS is going to get something they have to they just closed a third of that park, if you don't do something that is going to drive people away. Record attendance is reported every year that's nothing new and your main attendance stream is at MK. Disney and universal never ever release real attendance numbers we can only go off the estimated numbers released by outside companies. Tourism is up that's a fact orlando as a hole is seeing a lot more people. Universal is up higher, they saw a larger increase than disney which makes sense they just opened a big expansion and a brand new hotel. 15-17 and 50-55 million? Where are you getting these numbers? Universal parks see between 7-8 million each. DHS and AK 10 million, EPCOT 11-12 million, MK 18 million and again these are only estimations we don't know the real numbers. MK always sees the largest increases and it is the most visited park in the world. DHS, AK, and EPCOT haven't seen big additions in years. MK just opened an expansion attendance increases there make a lot of sense. MK attendance increases make up for a large majority of the WDW attendance increases. Almost double the people visit MK than DHS and AK, disney needs to do something about that and they are, Pandora, and whatever is to come at DHS (pixar, Star Wars). No one, I repeat no one here is saying WDW is going to topple I don't understand where you are getting this from. I am active on the disboards and the wdwmagic boards and I find the disboards to have more of the oh disney I love you you can do no wrong crowd and wdwmagic to be the realistic disney by the numbers they need to do this this and this kind of thing. I'm not saying everyone is like that but just a general consensus.

Occupancy isnt down, its up 5%. They aren't going to say its down, but thats because it isnt down. Your panic theory from a couple weeks ago was way off.

Uni parks at 7-8 million each equals about 15 million. WDW at 18, 12, 11, & 10 is 51 million. Do you really not see that?

There were quite a few here that came up with the theory that all of the recent construction stuff surrounding DHS was because poor numbers were about to be reported for Q4. Quite obviously, that wasn't the case.

I just find it amusing that the armchair analysts had all of this doom and gloom andbwere thinking they knew WDW was down and were relishing it just a week or two ago, but won't admit they were wrong now, instead somehow trying to spin the success WDW continues to have.
 
The lengths people go to discredit WDW here is very amusing. Just a week or two ago, it was....

They are in panic mode thats is why they are converting to DVC, because occupancy is down. Also, all of the construction rumors are because their numbers are going to show they are down in Q4, just wait.... those numbers are going to tell the tale.

And now, when occupancy rates show 5% increase (and even up from pre AoA levels), and record attendance is reported, its only because tourism is up and it won't last. And Uni is up higher and taking days away from them. Its much easier to pull a higher pecentage when you have 15-17 million attendance than when you're at 50-55 million. But Disney is still increasing headcount more, with record attendance, so is Uni really stealing guests away?

I know I know, its the Doom and Gloom Board here we are on... WDW is about to topple.

There's not a corporation in the world that doesn't put a rosy spin on their quarterly and annual numbers announcements. Putting them in context is not Disney bashing.

GM and Ford would announce record car sales in the years Toyota and Honda were grabbing big percentage point chunks of marketshare from them.

When you looked at those numbers, it was discounted fleet sales to rental companies, how they changed the sale count to dealerships, basic population growth, etc., that inflated the Ford GM numbers.

So, looking at these numbers and listening to the call, the higher guest spend is attributable to higher prices (again), the operating income jump is attributable to lower expense (MM+...?), domestic Parks investment was flat, and the occ rate increase is lower than last year's Orlando Tourism increase.

That's not "doom and gloom", that's fact.

Look, I think it's awesome Uni is gaining marketshare. And, I think it's awesome they're taking time-in-Park away from Disney.

Why? So Disney will get off their posteriors and invest in WDW more quickly.

I don't think we'd be seeing this sudden flury of activity at DHS if Uni was just chugging along with 2-4% gate increases YTY and wasn't building Loew's quality Resorts, or aggressively going after the Convention business.

Besides MK and the Food and Bev extravaganza formerly known as EPCOT, the other Parks are flat in attendance and rev. That's what Uni is highlighting. That's what Disney suddenly and seemingly are trying to fix.

Not doom and gloom. On the contrary - could be very positive for us if they do it right
 
When I read what Jay Rasulo said re Theme Parks, it doesn't seem all that great:
Higher operating income at our domestic operations was driven by increased guest spending and attendance, partially offset by higher costs and lower vacation club ownership sales. The increase in guest
spending was primarily due to higher average ticket prices for theme park admissions and for sailings at our cruise line and increased food, beverage and merchandise spending. Higher costs reflected increased costs for MyMagic+ and the absence of an offset in the prior-year quarter from a property sale, partially offset by lower pension and postretirement medical costs. Decreased vacation club ownership sales reflected the prior-year success of The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, for which sales
commenced at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2013
.
There's lower DVC purchases, the increased revenue is due largely to increased ticket prices ( so merchandise isn't flying off the shelves), they're also attributing decreased pension and post retirement medical costs. So what does this mean? Have they cut pensions and medical plans? It's not exactly a winning report. Also, MDE continues to be a big expense.
I don't see this as a glowing report. Disney will reach a point where they can no longer raise ticket prices to increase their revenue. Their merchandise is pitiful, and people have been complaining about this for years. You can crow with delight over this report, but the profits Disney is listing are not sustainable. They need the AK, DHS, and Epcot renovations. Somehow, I don't think these are going to come fast enough for them to keep putting a positive spin on their quarterly earnings.


So you read nothing from the actual call where occupancy was up 5%, and attendance records were set again? And where they mentioned MM+ is now being a positive contributor to year over year increase in operating income?

People have been saying every quarter that their profits are not sustainable, yet they report record profits every quarter nowadays.
 
When I read what Jay Rasulo said re Theme Parks, it doesn't seem all that great:
Higher operating income at our domestic operations was driven by increased guest spending and attendance, partially offset by higher costs and lower vacation club ownership sales. The increase in guest
spending was primarily due to higher average ticket prices for theme park admissions and for sailings at our cruise line and increased food, beverage and merchandise spending. Higher costs reflected increased costs for MyMagic+ and the absence of an offset in the prior-year quarter from a property sale, partially offset by lower pension and postretirement medical costs. Decreased vacation club ownership sales reflected the prior-year success of The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, for which sales
commenced at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2013
.
There's lower DVC purchases, the increased revenue is due largely to increased ticket prices ( so merchandise isn't flying off the shelves), they're also attributing decreased pension and post retirement medical costs. So what does this mean? Have they cut pensions and medical plans? It's not exactly a winning report. Also, MDE continues to be a big expense.
I don't see this as a glowing report. Disney will reach a point where they can no longer raise ticket prices to increase their revenue. Their merchandise is pitiful, and people have been complaining about this for years. You can crow with delight over this report, but the profits Disney is listing are not sustainable. They need the AK, DHS, and Epcot renovations. Somehow, I don't think these are going to come fast enough for them to keep putting a positive spin on their quarterly earnings.

Wow, talk about looking for the dark cloud. Disney announces record financial results and this is seen as evidence of doom. Where to start?

Just because some of the revenue increase is not attributed to an increase in merchandise sales has somehow gotten translated to merchandise is not flying off the shelf. So I guess this assumes that it wasn't already flying off the shelf and hasn't increased from there? Is all that Anna & Elsa & Olaf etc stuff I see around really evidence of poor merchandise sales?

How about MDE, yes its still a big expense. Did we also read that there is increased guest spending? How much of that is attributable to MDE giving people more time not standing in lines? Back to the merchandise sales comment, notice that Jay did say that some of the increased revenue was attributed to merchandise sales.

Medical & Pension plan costs, in the accounting world, are affected by several things. Future benefit costs (based on number of covered individuals and their ages) are only part of the equation. Also included is the effect of the current stock market on the pension and PBOP funds. In an up market those funds earn more and reduce the employers cost. Reduced pension and PBOP costs doesn't automatically translate to fewer people covered.
 
Wow, talk about looking for the dark cloud. Disney announces record financial results and this is seen as evidence of doom. Where to start?

Just because some of the revenue increase is not attributed to an increase in merchandise sales has somehow gotten translated to merchandise is not flying off the shelf. So I guess this assumes that it wasn't already flying off the shelf and hasn't increased from there? Is all that Anna & Elsa & Olaf etc stuff I see around really evidence of poor merchandise sales?

How about MDE, yes its still a big expense. Did we also read that there is increased guest spending? How much of that is attributable to MDE giving people more time not standing in lines? Back to the merchandise sales comment, notice that Jay did say that some of the increased revenue was attributed to merchandise sales.

Medical & Pension plan costs, in the accounting world, are affected by several things. Future benefit costs (based on number of covered individuals and their ages) are only part of the equation. Also included is the effect of the current stock market on the pension and PBOP funds. In an up market those funds earn more and reduce the employers cost. Reduced pension and PBOP costs doesn't automatically translate to fewer people covered.
Ok so maybe Disney can continue to post increased earning by increasing ticket prices, because they sure aren't doing anything in the immediate future to increase attendance. Innovation drives the entertainment industry. Tell me what new innovation is Disney producing. MDE? Great, I want to be collared, tracked and herded during my vacation. You choose to see this as excellent news, good for you.
 
Ok so maybe Disney can continue to post increased earning by increasing ticket prices, because they sure aren't doing anything in the immediate future to increase attendance. Innovation drives the entertainment industry. Tell me what new innovation is Disney producing. MDE? Great, I want to be collared, tracked and herded during my vacation. You choose to see this as excellent news, good for you.

Perhaps you've heard of New FantasyLand? It opened fairly recently and I hear that there are still people who haven't experienced it yet. Oh, and how about "AvatarLand" at AK? Not sure when that will open but construction has started. Might that bring more people along? Then again, perhaps Disney is doing something right already since attendance is increasing.

Oh, and don't worry about being tracked by MDE, your credit card already provides that info anyway.

As a stock holder, I'm thrilled with how DIS is doing.
 
So you read nothing from the actual call where occupancy was up 5%, and attendance records were set again? And where they mentioned MM+ is now being a positive contributor to year over year increase in operating income?

People have been saying every quarter that their profits are not sustainable, yet they report record profits every quarter nowadays.

If the occupancy were so great how come they're converting resort rooms into DVC? If there occupancy rate were better, they wouldn't be doing that. There is increased tourism in Orlando due to the economy, increased tourism= increased attendance for WDW. I don't think Disney is the only place in Orlando that is experiencing these increases. MM+, yes it's increasing revenue. But Disney reminds me of those big time gamblers that tell you about their big win of $5000. What they fail to mention is how much they spent to win that $5000. How much has Disney invested in MM+ and how much have they gained?
 
Ok so maybe Disney can continue to post increased earning by increasing ticket prices, because they sure aren't doing anything in the immediate future to increase attendance. Innovation drives the entertainment industry. Tell me what new innovation is Disney producing. MDE? Great, I want to be collared, tracked and herded during my vacation. You choose to see this as excellent news, good for you.

MDE is a system that links the entire conglomeration together. It seems to be something they felt they needed to do in order to move into the future being ahead of the game. There was a construction pause during this time, even though FLE was built, maybe because it would be silly to build new areas until the new system is running and they have figured out what is needed to make it work as designed. Retrofit is much more costly than installing during original construction.

If you read these boards and don't know what Disney has been working on lately, I don't know what to tell you.

Actually I think I would prefer they increased profit with out increasing attendance. There are enough people in the parks for me.
 
Interesting thoughts on the whole Uni/WDW thing. I'd be inclined to think that WDW wins even when Uni introduces something new. I'd bet that anybody flying into Orlando for a new attraction at Uni (or Sea World for that matter) is going to also spend time at Disney.

I think you're right - for the first time, Disney is getting visitors that are coming to Orlando not mainly for WDW or are deciding to go back to Orlando earlier than they would have if it was just a Disney visit.

MDE is a system that links the entire conglomeration together. It seems to be something they felt they needed to do in order to move into the future being ahead of the game. There was a construction pause during this time, even though FLE was built, maybe because it would be silly to build new areas until the new system is running and they have figured out what is needed to make it work as designed. Retrofit is much more costly than installing during original construction.

I agree that they felt they need it - mainly for higher guest spend and a better utilization of current Park assets.

But the reason nothing else was built, started, or invested in was because NextGen was their CAPEX (and a sizable portion of OpEx) during that period. No way the Board was going to approve anything else.....
 












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