Record attendance at the parks

[Laketravis]

I'm not sure how third parties can accurately estimate attendance numbers or what metrics they go by; I've often wondered how attendance is counted on a single day when we park hop to three different parks......is that 3 visits or 9 visits?

But I just got back from the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort last week. The place was packed, and my understanding is that when I have to go there again in March for another conference, the place is overbooked and if everyone shows up they will be shuttling some of our groups to other properties. Of the hundreds of us just at that one resort for several days, nobody once mentioned going to WDW.

Orlando in general is reminding me of Vegas - what used to be an economical destination filled with seemingly unlimited deals and bargains is now a foo-foo facade at premium rates. So I agree with the sentiment that is temporary and the result of both pent up demand and current spending euphoria among select industries/groups. It simply can't last in an economy governed by cycles.

What does that have to do with Disney? From a strictly anecdotal standpoint, my family has spent over $30K at WDW over the last 42 months; we've never been to Universal but last week bought AP's and will be staying on-site the week of New Year's - WDW isn't even on the agenda. We also plan on upgrading our WDW tickets in a couple of weeks to AP's when we get there. We'll have AP's for both WDW and US when we go back in March, but are staying offsite.

While we will continue to go to WDW, we know for certain we will not be spending the same amount of money at WDW over the next 42 months as we have the last 42 months. While it was in the past, WDW is no longer the exclusive beneficiary of our Orlando dollars, and I suspect that trend will expand for others as well.

 

[Suvadoo]

I'm not sure how third parties can accurately estimate attendance numbers or what metrics they go by; I've often wondered how attendance is counted on a single day when we park hop to three different parks......is that 3 visits or 9 visits?

But I just got back from the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort last week. The place was packed, and my understanding is that when I have to go there again in March for another conference, the place is overbooked and if everyone shows up they will be shuttling some of our groups to other properties. Of the hundreds of us just at that one resort for several days, nobody once mentioned going to WDW.

Orlando in general is reminding me of Vegas - what used to be an economical destination filled with seemingly unlimited deals and bargains is now a foo-foo facade at premium rates. So I agree with the sentiment that is temporary and the result of both pent up demand and current spending euphoria among select industries/groups. It simply can't last in an economy governed by cycles.

What does that have to do with Disney? From a strictly anecdotal standpoint, my family has spent over $30K at WDW over the last 42 months; we've never been to Universal but last week bought AP's and will be staying on-site the week of New Year's - WDW isn't even on the agenda. We also plan on upgrading our WDW tickets in a couple of weeks to AP's when we get there. We'll have AP's for both WDW and US when we go back in March, but are staying offsite.

While we will continue to go to WDW, we know for certain we will not be spending the same amount of money at WDW over the next 42 months as we have the last 42 months. While it was in the past, WDW is no longer the exclusive beneficiary of our Orlando dollars, and I suspect that trend will expand for others as well.

Exactly how I feel.

 

[Suvadoo]

Perhaps you've heard of New FantasyLand? It opened fairly recently and I hear that there are still people who haven't experienced it yet. Oh, and how about "AvatarLand" at AK? Not sure when that will open but construction has started. Might that bring more people along? Then again, perhaps Disney is doing something right already since attendance is increasing.

Oh, and don't worry about being tracked by MDE, your credit card already provides that info anyway.

As a stock holder, I'm thrilled with how DIS is doing.

I don't need to read the boards to know what Disney is working on. Avatarland announced in 2011, expected to be opened in 2017. Fantasyland? Really? Basically a restaurant and a lackluster kiddie coaster. Glad you like it, but I don't think it's going to be a big revenue driver. I don't think it was even mentioned in the shareholder report.

 

[rteetz]

Perhaps you've heard of New FantasyLand? It opened fairly recently and I hear that there are still people who haven't experienced it yet. Oh, and how about "AvatarLand" at AK? Not sure when that will open but construction has started. Might that bring more people along? Then again, perhaps Disney is doing something right already since attendance is increasing. Oh, and don't worry about being tracked by MDE, your credit card already provides that info anyway. As a stock holder, I'm thrilled with how DIS is doing.

New fantasyland didn't bring anything truly new and innovative. Yes the seven dwarfs mine train but it isn't an e ticket that MK needs. Avatarland I agree due to open in 2017 with an e ticket and a d ticket which will definitely help AK. Then we have DHS which who knows what's going to happen but strong rumors point to toy story clones that have been done already so that's nothing new and innovative. Everyone before Iger brought huge and innovative attractions to the parks. The only thing I give credit to Iger for something absolutely amazing is Carsland.

 

[rteetz]

If the occupancy were so great how come they're converting resort rooms into DVC? If there occupancy rate were better, they wouldn't be doing that. There is increased tourism in Orlando due to the economy, increased tourism= increased attendance for WDW. I don't think Disney is the only place in Orlando that is experiencing these increases. MM+, yes it's increasing revenue. But Disney reminds me of those big time gamblers that tell you about their big win of $5000. What they fail to mention is how much they spent to win that $5000. How much has Disney invested in MM+ and how much have they gained?

I agree and who's to say that the occupancy increase is in the moderates and values not deluxes. The disney deluxe resorts are $400 plus a night that's crazy especially when you can stay at the Waldorf or four seasons for less than what that is and still get great amenities. I myself have never stayed deluxe it's just too expensive for our family. MM+ cost around 2 billion according to most and I highly doubt they have gained that much from it.

 

[rteetz]

I think you're right - for the first time, Disney is getting visitors that are coming to Orlando not mainly for WDW or are deciding to go back to Orlando earlier than they would have if it was just a Disney visit. I agree that they felt they need it - mainly for higher guest spend and a better utilization of current Park assets. But the reason nothing else was built, started, or invested in was because NextGen was their CAPEX (and a sizable portion of OpEx) during that period. No way the Board was going to approve anything else.....

I agree completely I am one who really likes MM+ but disney has three parks they need to work on now. AK is getting its help and that's great. DHS is supposedly getting it but it's rumored to be clones of toy story play land and whatever Star Wars things come. Then there is EPCOT which is getting a redone maelstrom, when really that whole park was built on innovation and hasn't seen much since the 90s.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

New fantasyland didn't bring anything truly new and innovative. Yes the seven dwarfs mine train but it isn't an e ticket that MK needs. Avatarland I agree due to open in 2017 with an e ticket and a d ticket which will definitely help AK. Then we have DHS which who knows what's going to happen but strong rumors point to toy story clones that have been done already so that's nothing new and innovative. Everyone before Iger brought huge and innovative attractions to the parks. The only thing I give credit to Iger for something absolutely amazing is Carsland.

My concern is that Disney hasn't even made an announcement about DHS. It seems like with half the park shuttered, they would have to make one soon. But with the way Disney likes to work on projects right now, even if the announce something in 2015, it won't be done until 2020.

I agree and who's to say that the occupancy increase is in the moderates and values not deluxes. The disney deluxe resorts are $400 plus a night that's crazy especially when you can stay at the Waldorf or four seasons for less than what that is and still get great amenities. I myself have never stayed deluxe it's just too expensive for our family. MM+ cost around 2 billion according to most and I highly doubt they have gained that much from it.

I would imagine this is probably what is happening. And don't they have large portions of the Poly closed for renovations?

I agree completely I am one who really likes MM+ but disney has three parks they need to work on now. AK is getting its help and that's great. DHS is supposedly getting it but it's rumored to be clones of toy story play land and whatever Star Wars things come. Then there is EPCOT which is getting a redone maelstrom, when really that whole park was built on innovation and hasn't seen much since the 90s.

Oddly enough, I loved DHS when it first opened and had very few rides because I loved the theme. (Of course, the Backlot Tour lasted hours.) But it's become such a stale park, that we had a hard time spending more than 5 hours there on our last trip, especially since my kids don't want to ride RnR or ToT.

Also how much of the additional revenue was from the many add-on packages Disney has been offering like the Frozen dessert party? I'm sure they made a nice profit off the Sinister Soiree.

 

[rteetz]

My concern is that Disney hasn't even made an announcement about DHS. It seems like with half the park shuttered, they would have to make one soon. But with the way Disney likes to work on projects right now, even if the announce something in 2015, it won't be done until 2020. I would imagine this is probably what is happening. And don't they have large portions of the Poly closed for renovations? Oddly enough, I loved DHS when it first opened and had very few rides because I loved the theme. (Of course, the Backlot Tour lasted hours.) But it's become such a stale park, that we had a hard time spending more than 5 hours there on our last trip, especially since my kids don't want to ride RnR or ToT. Also how much of the additional revenue was from the many add-on packages Disney has been offering like the Frozen dessert party? I'm sure they made a nice profit off the Sinister Soiree.

I've heard they are going the DVC route with DHS they aren't going to announce anything until they are fully in construction mode. So that would mean no announcement until next year sometime.

Yes the poly does have lots of things closed right now including two long houses a large amount of the beach and the main pool is all under construction. That will be all done in mid to late 2015.

Disney loves those dessert party add ons because people are crazy enough to spend the money on them. The sinister soirée was a dessert party inside an already hard ticket event so that's double the money for disney.

 

[LeeAndRobin]

Never mind...

 

[mcd2745]

Never mind...

I can do that.

 

[johde]

I'm not sure how third parties can accurately estimate attendance numbers or what metrics they go by; I've often wondered how attendance is counted on a single day when we park hop to three different parks......is that 3 visits or 9 visits?

In general, AECOM goes by the first park visited. It is my understanding, they use a combination of publicly available and privately gathered information to generate their estimates. For theme parks conglomerates like Disney and Universal, I have heard one of things they do is do their own hand estimate of attendance on select mornings to accurately split attendance between the 4 parks.

So, they would use Disney's publicly availble financial data to get ticket sales for the chain as a whole and possible down to region (Florida, California, France etc.) Then their crowd estimates would split it to the individual parks.

The lengths people go to discredit WDW here is very amusing. Just a week or two ago, it was....

I know I know, its the Doom and Gloom Board here we are on... WDW is about to topple.

I'm not sure anyone here is discrediting WDW. What WDW has been able to do is amazing. Based on publicly available attendance data, attendance at all the Orlando parks were declining in attendance from 1997 - 2004 in the wake of Hurricanes in the region and the recession following 9/11.

In 2005, Disney started a new marketing campaign focused on getting people to stay longer on their WDW vacation. This included things such as Free Dining, Magic Your Way tickets (in 2005, days 4-10 cost $2 each),7 days for the price of 3 sales during hurricane season ect. Some like the ticket prices were focued on all year others were focused solely on slow times. As a result of their marketing an pricing changes WDW has seen 10 straight years of attendance growth.

Universal on the other hand, continued to decline in attendance and hit it low point in 2009. They tried to play pricing games but it didn't work. In 2009 a 1 day ticket to Universal was $79 (same as Disney) but you could get 7 days for $99. What turned Univeral around was agressivly investing in new rides and attractions in the park, especially Harry Potter.

From 2009 - 2013 Universal Orlando's Combined attendance has grown by nearly 5 million visitors a year. During the same time frame WDW combined attendance has grown by 1.5 million visitors a year (and most of that is the Magic Kingdom). Going back to 2004 Disney's low year they've grown by 10 million visitors a year.

So, Disney has a shorter decline buy a more slow and steady recovery where Universal declined for much longer but has caught fire in recent year. The big question is which parks are poised better for the next 10 years.

 

[mab2012]

Interesting thread.

Regarding the discussion over whether Universal is capturing market share directly from Disney, for my family's upcoming trip to Orlando, this is definitely true. I had intended this to be an all-Disney trip. My kids will be 6 and 9, and I thought that this would be the ideal age range for Disney. We will even be staying on-site, via a timeshare exchange into DVC. But my almost 9-year-old is in love with Harry Potter, and wants nothing more than to visit Universal's Harry Potter world. Because of the pricing structure in place both at Disney and at Universal (where the admission cost for the first day or two is simply absurd, quickly dropping off to an incremental cost of almost nothing for additional days), I refuse to visit both parks in a single trip. So we will not be visiting the Disney parks at all this year, opting instead for a multi-day Universal pass.

I realize that my family is only a single data point, and that hardly suggests a trend. But it's reasonable to assume that we're not the only ones facing this choice. It would take a great deal more data to tell whether whatever migration is happening is significant on overall numbers.

 

[rteetz]

Interesting thread. Regarding the discussion over whether Universal is capturing market share directly from Disney, for my family's upcoming trip to Orlando, this is definitely true. I had intended this to be an all-Disney trip. My kids will be 6 and 9, and I thought that this would be the ideal age range for Disney. We will even be staying on-site, via a timeshare exchange into DVC. But my almost 9-year-old is in love with Harry Potter, and wants nothing more than to visit Universal's Harry Potter world. Because of the pricing structure in place both at Disney and at Universal (where the admission cost for the first day or two is simply absurd, quickly dropping off to an incremental cost of almost nothing for additional days), I refuse to visit both parks in a single trip. So we will not be visiting the Disney parks at all this year, opting instead for a multi-day Universal pass. I realize that my family is only a single data point, and that hardly suggests a trend. But it's reasonable to assume that we're not the only ones facing this choice. It would take a great deal more data to tell whether whatever migration is happening is significant on overall numbers.

I think market share for universal is also increasing because SeaWorlds is really declining. But as in your case and from hearing a lot of other people say it they are going to universal for at least a day rather than going to disney.

 

[Suvadoo]

I think market share for universal is also increasing because SeaWorlds is really declining. But as in your case and from hearing a lot of other people say it they are going to universal for at least a day rather than going to disney.

Universal continues to offer new attractions in their parks. This is a big draw for a lot of people. This year it was Diagon alley, next year it's Kong. I think Disney has dropped the ball in attracting guests. DHS is turning into a ghost town and Epcot has multiple empty pavilions. I'm surprised they put interactive games into MK rather than trying to attract guests into their empty parks. I think attendance will continue to decline at DHS and Epcot and Disney is really doing nothing to rectify the situation.

 

[rteetz]

Universal continues to offer new attractions in their parks. This is a big draw for a lot of people. This year it was Diagon alley, next year it's Kong. I think Disney has dropped the ball in attracting guests. DHS is turning into a ghost town and Epcot has multiple empty pavilions. I'm surprised they put interactive games into MK rather than trying to attract guests into their empty parks. I think attendance will continue to decline at DHS and Epcot and Disney is really doing nothing to rectify the situation.

DHS wasn't a ghost town this summer with the frozen events trust me I was there.

Also the empty pavilions get used for several events during the year mainly food and wine and flower and garden. They have been trying to attract guests to those two park with those very events and it works lots of people went to DHS for Frozen and lots of people go to EPCOT for flower and garden and food and wine which just ended today.

I'll be one of the first to say disney has become stale with attractions but they do keep throwing events out there. Harambe nights was a successful one at AK as well.

Also DHS closed several things and announced the removal of the hat, something is coming.

 

[johde]

Universal continues to offer new attractions in their parks. This is a big draw for a lot of people. This year it was Diagon alley, next year it's Kong. I think Disney has dropped the ball in attracting guests. DHS is turning into a ghost town and Epcot has multiple empty pavilions. I'm surprised they put interactive games into MK rather than trying to attract guests into their empty parks. I think attendance will continue to decline at DHS and Epcot and Disney is really doing nothing to rectify the situation.

EPCOT's attendance hasn't started a recent decline (yet). But it's been pretty flat for the past 7 years according to attendance estimates. Hovering right around 11 million +/- .2 million. In 2007 the attendance was estimated to be 10.9 million and in 2013 11.2 million. And at least so far, DHS has continued to grow slowly.

DHS wasn't a ghost town this summer with the frozen events trust me I was there.

Also the empty pavilions get used for several events during the year mainly food and wine and flower and garden. They have been trying to attract guests to those two park with those very events and it works lots of people went to DHS for Frozen and lots of people go to EPCOT for flower and garden and food and wine which just ended today.

I'll be one of the first to say disney has become stale with attractions but they do keep throwing events out there. Harambe nights was a successful one at AK as well.

Also DHS closed several things and announced the removal of the hat, something is coming.

I agree, DHS will do well this year with the Frozen Summer (fall/Winter). For me, 2015 and 2016 could be rough years for DHS. The questions are what is happening at DHS and how long will it take to build. A large section of the park will be a construction zone (much larger than at DAK) and unless they come up with another new big special event SWW are already baked in the numbers.

Disney seems to be starting to invest in the parks after what seems like a decade of lackluster investment in attractions. If DHS get's Toy Story Playland from Paris by itself, it will be a bust in my opinion. A few themed flat rides will not fix that park long term. That being said, it could be a "quick" stage 1 of a 3 or 4 stage remaking of that side of the park. That could be done quickly while they build a bigger Star Wars Land and Cars Land (with or without RSR but with an E-ticket attraction).

 

[FigmentFans]

Interesting thread.

Regarding the discussion over whether Universal is capturing market share directly from Disney, for my family's upcoming trip to Orlando, this is definitely true. I had intended this to be an all-Disney trip. My kids will be 6 and 9, and I thought that this would be the ideal age range for Disney. We will even be staying on-site, via a timeshare exchange into DVC. But my almost 9-year-old is in love with Harry Potter, and wants nothing more than to visit Universal's Harry Potter world. Because of the pricing structure in place both at Disney and at Universal (where the admission cost for the first day or two is simply absurd, quickly dropping off to an incremental cost of almost nothing for additional days), I refuse to visit both parks in a single trip. So we will not be visiting the Disney parks at all this year, opting instead for a multi-day Universal pass.

I realize that my family is only a single data point, and that hardly suggests a trend. But it's reasonable to assume that we're not the only ones facing this choice. It would take a great deal more data to tell whether whatever migration is happening is significant on overall numbers.

We are doing the same thing. The last time we were at Disney was April 2013, and we used to go at least once a year (both DH and I have relatives in the area). We were down in FL in July but only went to Universal as DD loves the thrill rides; we had an extra day where we could have gone to Disney but could not get up enough enthusiasm to go.
My sisters and I are doing a 'sister' trip in early December (a bunch of 50 somethings running around, very scary ); we were thinking of going to Disney at first (like we usually do), but the 7DMT is not enough of an attraction to lure us there; instead we are going to go to SeaWorld.
Don't get me wrong, there is a lot to love about Disney. However, maybe it's too much familiarity, but I probably will not be going as much as I used to, and enjoy some of the other Orlando attractions more often.

 

[rteetz]

EPCOT's attendance hasn't started a recent decline (yet). But it's been pretty flat for the past 7 years according to attendance estimates. Hovering right around 11 million +/- .2 million. In 2007 the attendance was estimated to be 10.9 million and in 2013 11.2 million. And at least so far, DHS has continued to grow slowly. I agree, DHS will do well this year with the Frozen Summer (fall/Winter). For me, 2015 and 2016 could be rough years for DHS. The questions are what is happening at DHS and how long will it take to build. A large section of the park will be a construction zone (much larger than at DAK) and unless they come up with another new big special event SWW are already baked in the numbers. Disney seems to be starting to invest in the parks after what seems like a decade of lackluster investment in attractions. If DHS get's Toy Story Playland from Paris by itself, it will be a bust in my opinion. A few themed flat rides will not fix that park long term. That being said, it could be a "quick" stage 1 of a 3 or 4 stage remaking of that side of the park. That could be done quickly while they build a bigger Star Wars Land and Cars Land (with or without RSR but with an E-ticket attraction).

I definitely agree. Toy story playland can't be the only thing they do if it is it's not good. I definitely think a Star Wars land is in the future. Carsland was on the table once but is scrapped and I truly believe that I wouldn't rule out a single cars attraction tho that is for sure.

 

[johde]

I definitely agree. Toy story playland can't be the only thing they do if it is it's not good. I definitely think a Star Wars land is in the future. Carsland was on the table once but is scrapped and I truly believe that I wouldn't rule out a single cars attraction tho that is for sure.

I just have this sinking feeling that the Pixar Plaace expansion Toy Story Playland + Cars Land (Minus RSR) + Bugs Land + extra track on TSMM. 7 or 8 "B ticket" flat rides and giant statues. That Plus a New E-Ticket would be a great expansion. Without the E-ticket can you say Dinoland 2.0.

 

[rteetz]

I just have this sinking feeling that the Pixar Plaace expansion Toy Story Playland + Cars Land (Minus RSR) + Bugs Land + extra track on TSMM. 7 or 8 "B ticket" flat rides and giant statues. That Plus a New E-Ticket would be a great expansion. Without the E-ticket can you say Dinoland 2.0.

I agree with al, of that except I think it's even less of a Carsland, based on what I've heard one cars c ticket type ride and Flo's v8 cafe for food.