Recession=Lower crowds in 2009?

[dreambound]

Do you think the state of the economy is going to translate into lower crowds in 2009? Or will Disney just make prices so low that the crowds will stay level?

Just curious!

Meg

 

[rolshan]

There will surely be a major fall off in attendance, although Disney will try to compensate by having specials. The foreign fall off of attendance may not be as great as the domestic.

 

[ILuvCrush]

I've been reading several threads of folks making plans to come here from abroad... and their trip costs are escillating terribly too. 25%-40% increase due to exchange rates and astronomical airfare. Its sad really.

I figure that WDW will try to offset the decline with great offers. But that said... I haven't been reading a LOT of people here taking advantage of bouceback for next year... some have, but not as many as usually would I think

 

[dreambound]

Yes, I was thinking attendance has been really high for the last few years with Happiest Celebration on Earth followed by Year of a Million Dreams. I figure with the economy tanking, a lot of people who have been in the last 3 years may cut travel out of their budget. I just read that free dining codes have been floating around for dates other than September, which really shocks me! And the values at $50-something...we haven't seen that since we went in 2005.

It will be interesting to see what happens...

 

[MotherOf2Princesses]

I would love to see Disney lower their ticket prices. But I doubt that's going to happen.
I am staying off site this year, thats another reservation Disney lost.
My condo rental will cost about the same as tickets to Disney for 4. That is crazy.
Attendance might be 4 people less in January because I might go to Universal instead.

 

[Bill From PA]

I expect to see lower crowds next March, and I'll be in a position to judge since this will be our 9th trip in the last 11 years in the first week in March. A clue to look for is WDW resort codes and other sorts of discounts as this year draws to an end. Past recessions, which were nowhere near as bad as this one threatens to be, featured rooms at POR for $89 and AllStar at $49, in peak season. I don't expect to see Disney lower ticket prices. EVER.

Bill From PA

 

[ransom]

I don't expect to see Disney lower ticket prices. EVER.

Exactly right, Bill. They'll lower the total cost of your vacation if you're staying onsite, but ticket prices will never, ever drop.

Here's a scenario that's much more likely than dropping ticket prices:

When [YOUR FAVORITE CANDIDATE] wins the election, markets will lift because he's so much better than [THAT OTHER CANDIDATE]. And on inauguration day, everything will magically go back to normal, and before long we'll all be seeing 10%+ increases in our personal incomes every single year, with low inflation, interest rates, and unemployment.

It's practically guaranteed!

So don't count on low crowds next year!

 

[dreambound]

I should clarify. By "making prices low" I meant resort rates and free dining, not ticket prices. But we'll see what happens!

Meg (my son picked the smiley!)

 

[Alice In Tinkerland]

I think people are staying home now and doing a wait and see for next year.

I was able to book Pop Century for 5 nights over Thanksgiving just yesterday no problem. There were rooms available at other resorts also. Not sure how often there rooms available 50 days out from a MAJOR holiday week. But I would guess not often

 

[pooh2001]

I am hoping WDW does release some discounts for peak times - like Easter 2010 when we plan to return to WDW

A room discount with dining package would be nice.

 

[minnie61650]

.... I don't expect to see Disney lower ticket prices. EVER.

Bill From PA

I agree.
Resort prices may fall, free dining may be offered during certain dates but WDW most likely will not lower their ticket prices.
This is what I posted on another thread when WDW raised the price of tickets in Aug.2008:
---------------------------------------

I would think Disney's theme park revenue and budget is most likely separate from resort revenue and resort budget.

A rental property business such as renting store fronts, commercial properties, apartments, hotel or motel rooms usually is taxed very differently than other businesses.

WDW should be able to depreciate their resort buildings & resort rooms and write off a % of their improvements to the resorts but I do not think they can depreciate the parks or the write of the costs for the improvements to parks.

So when WDW updates and refurbishes the resort they are able to get some return of the monies spent on tax relief and not solely on the income for the room rentals.

So it makes more sense to discount rooms to help fill them during the slow season.

Also as has pointed out many times WDW can close off buildings or floors (or even whole resorts) at their resorts to save on daily upkeep.

WDW does close a few rides or attractions for updates but I imagine there is less public outcry when lots are rooms are closed as opposed to a lot of rides or attractions. (look at the outcry about cutting back Fantasmic to 2 nights a week for example)

Most likely if WDW wants to budget money for improvements in the parks they need to budget a certain % on the revenue that is brought in by the admission for the parks.
I think it is very important that WDW shows a profit for the theme parks.
Therefore it makes sense for a ticket price increase.
I am over simplifying things but I hope you get my drift.

I understand a bit about being to depreciate property and write off improvements made to rental properties because besides DH being a builder we also own quite a bit of rental property.

BTW:
When our prices go up we also need to raise the rent.
I wish we could lower the rent when times are tough but we also have to make a profit just like any other business. If we did not make a profit ;we would not be able to pay our employees, or pay our expenses and we would lose our properties.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[EnnEss]

Britain is the biggest (I think) Foreign group that goes there, its famous for it. Maybe more Canadians go, Im not sure. Britain is in a bigger slump than America though. Some thought it was tied to america at first, but its become obvious its Britain's (and the continents) own problems. Their dollar is hurting. I read there was already an expected drop in vacation for them, seems like its just getting worse.

I often wonder how much the economy actually effects attendance. I think there wont be negative attendance first this year, I just dont think the recession is that bad, but I only see it second hand, where I am there is still economic boom, its always hard to judge if you're not affected or see no one affected by it either.

On a side note, come see the winter olympics in 2010!

 

[MotherOf2Princesses]

I should clarify. By "making prices low" I meant resort rates and free dining, not ticket prices. But we'll see what happens!
I knew what you meant. But one could hope.

I think Disney might have made a mistake by raising prices again on their tickets and room cost.
Perhaps they thought they were untouchable by the economy situation.

 

[DisneyWisher]

I figure that WDW will try to offset the decline with great offers. But that said... I haven't been reading a LOT of people here taking advantage of bouceback for next year... some have, but not as many as usually would I think

Even the ones that have taken reserved with the bounceback offer, the majority probably still have to book airfare. Who knows what airfare will be like next year. They probably keep in the back of their minds its only $200 deposit and we have 45 days in advance to cancel.

 

[MickeyNicki]

We are going this month for 10 days and I think this will have to tide us over until Oct 09 if the economy keeps it up. We are taking our nieces in Jan at the POP but that is my mom's Xmas gift to all of us.

I would love to go in April but even with discounts I have to renew my APs and DDE card and that all adds up....

This economy stinks!

 

[Sleeping Becca]

Yes, I think Disney parks will take a hit and attendance will be down. I agree with the others that Disney will NOT lower ticket prices, but will probably offer discount packages and rooms to attract guests.

I think the new promotion is a weak one and won't draw in many guests, I think they will have to resort to discounts.

I have my room booked for 2009 and a DCL cruise booked for 2009, hopefully I can get some good discounts or an upgrade.

 

[ILuvCrush]

I agree.
Resort prices may fall, free dining may be offered during certain dates but WDW most likely will not lower their ticket prices.
This is what I posted on another thread when WDW raised the price of tickets in Aug.2008:
---------------------------------------

I would think Disney's theme park revenue and budget is most likely separate from resort revenue and resort budget.

A rental property business such as renting store fronts, commercial properties, apartments, hotel or motel rooms usually is taxed very differently than other businesses.

WDW should be able to depreciate their resort buildings & resort rooms and write off a % of their improvements to the resorts but I do not think they can depreciate the parks or the write of the costs for the improvements to parks.

So when WDW updates and refurbishes the resort they are able to get some return of the monies spent on tax relief and not solely on the income for the room rentals.

So it makes more sense to discount rooms to help fill them during the slow season.

Also as has pointed out many times WDW can close off buildings or floors (or even whole resorts) at their resorts to save on daily upkeep.

WDW does close a few rides or attractions for updates but I imagine there is less public outcry when lots are rooms are closed as opposed to a lot of rides or attractions. (look at the outcry about cutting back Fantasmic to 2 nights a week for example)

Most likely if WDW wants to budget money for improvements in the parks they need to budget a certain % on the revenue that is brought in by the admission for the parks.
I think it is very important that WDW shows a profit for the theme parks.
Therefore it makes sense for a ticket price increase.
I am over simplifying things but I hope you get my drift.

I understand a bit about being to depreciate property and write off improvements made to rental properties because besides DH being a builder we also own quite a bit of rental property.

BTW:
When our prices go up we also need to raise the rent.
I wish we could lower the rent when times are tough but we also have to make a profit just like any other business. If we did not make a profit ;we would not be able to pay our employees, or pay our expenses and we would lose our properties.

Just my 2 cents.

I'm glad you made it simple... for peeps like me

 

[Kay1]

I'm taking my son over for three nights next week. I would like to have stayed onsite but the FL resident rate seemed way too high for mid-week October. So we're staying offsite at a tiny fraction of the cost and will be eating most of our meals offsite, too, because - IMO- table service prices are just too high. Had we stayed onsite, we would have eaten onsite at the hotel food court.

We like Disney and want them to do well but we can't afford to pay that much of a premium to stay in their hotels and eat in their restaurants. So, I'll guess we'll see what happens in 2009.

 

[Dismom55]

I am still planning our trip for 2009 and hoping that we make it. I also have been thinking that Disney may offer more specials to keep the folks coming in. I personally will stay on Disney Property as it is my comfort zone. I know nothing once I get off Disney property and am prone to getting lost.

I do believe that some who were planning to go to WDW in 2009, may still be going but shorter length of time, which is part of my back up plan if I can not scrape together the full amount, I will reduce the amount of days I plan to stay. I am going in September, so am hoping for free dining and maybe even reduced cost of rooms. That sure would help things handsomely.

 

[RMulieri]

I imagine it will be a factor in many peoples minds.I already booked bounceback for next year.Unless Dh or i lose our jobs( I am a nurse he a pharmacist so doubtful) or some major depression befalls the US economy we are going.But things could change, it is still a year away.