Recent experience in selling BWV contract

[jodifla]

Yeah, exactly. DVC is not a cheap product and budgets are even more constrained today than in the past. Buying DVC a quarter century ago was an entirely different dynamic vs. today. Projecting the success of DVC from inception to present onto the next 25 years is a mistake. I would say it’s very likely to be a breakeven/lose money net-commission/fees proposition when looking strictly at contract price.

Which still makes it a decent deal for a timeshare. Breakeven/lose a bit is a fair deal—I just think DVC owners have become accustomed, like homeowners, to “make money” on their consumer good. It’s become part of the psyche.

I agree that it's a different market today. It's why we bought when we did and chose to finance. We know the prices would only continue to rise for the first part of the contract years, then would decline as it got closer to expiration.

 

[Stank]

You keep quoting things like BLT at $190 like that was the median price as few months ago. It wasn’t. Not even close.

Doesn’t need to be the median or a few months ago. In 2021/early 2022, BLT was routinely listed and sold $180-200.

What matters is where the highest and lowest prices are, really. If I see a BLT sell for $200, I say BLT sold for $200. If I see BLT sell for $100, I say BLT sold for $100. I’m looking at highs and lows.

 

[Stank]

No. The fact that the resale marker was ludicrously overpriced and would crash/correct was foreseen by many on this board.

So BLT falling $50 pp within a year was entirely predictable, but suggesting it falls another $30-40 given the economic outlook is gloom and doom? Not sure I follow. Where BLT is now is what one could say is fair market value in a good economy. But if we have economic distress, why would suggesting a timeshare declining 20-30% be apocalyptic?

 

[Sandisw]

So BLT falling $50 pp within a year was entirely predictable, but suggesting it falls another $30-40 given the economic outlook is gloom and doom? Not sure I follow. Where BLT is now is what one could say is fair market value in a good economy. But if we have economic distress, why would suggesting a timeshare declining 20-30% be apocalyptic?

I think it’s because you are talking specifically about BLT. People will scoop it up quickly at $120 which would prevent it from falling too far.

All DVC resorts are not equal and the economy may not hit each one the same. People who were choosing SSR last year at $120 when BLT was $150, will Snap up that near park resort.

Like I shared, IMO, places like SSR and AKV will take the bigger hits and places like BLT will settle in to a higher level.

 

[DisneyDad0315]

Hmm. That's what people told us. But they were wrong. We financed. Paid it off 20 years ago. It was terrific for us, in fact.

I think the same way @jodifla. I did not finance my 100 point Aualni contract that I paid $11,000 for. But if I did finance it, it would be paid off. People like to hate on those who finance their DVC.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I was moderately following BLT since late November and I recall sales were generally in the mid to high 160’s.

Yup. I mean, sure, if you looked at the most expensive small contract on the board sponsor, I’m sure you could find one in the 190’s, but that was not the median.

 

[Matty B13]

I think it’s because you are talking specifically about BLT. People will scoop it up quickly at $120 which would prevent it from falling too far.

Are you sure about that??? Since AP are no longer available to anyone, and it seems that Disney is going to be limiting attendance and AP distribution moving forward, are people really going to be scooping up a lot more points to go multiple times a year? I know we had thought about it, but without the guarantee that AP are going to be coming back, we are holding off buying anymore points. Right now we have enough points to go once a year, but because of the price of park tickets we won't buy more points to go twice in a year. In fact we just sold a VGF contract that would have let us go twice a year, but sold because of the AP/Ticket situation. We could pick up more points for VGF right now for $145/point probably, which was the price in 2016 when we started, but won't because of this situation. I'm sure we are not the only family that is dealing with this.

 

[tom1944]

I think it’s because you are talking specifically about BLT. People will scoop it up quickly at $120 which would prevent it from falling too far.

All DVC resorts are not equal and the economy may not hit each one the same. People who were choosing SSR last year at $120 when BLT was $150, will Snap up that near park resort.

Like I shared, IMO, places like SSR and AKV will take the bigger hits and places like BLT will settle in to a higher level.

I agree
Location location location

Unlike other real estate transactions these date certain expiration timeshare contracts have a strong push to reduced prices based on years of use.
That factor should apply to all sales whether the economy is strong but especially when it’s weak.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Again, we had the cash to pay it off. We just aren't people who tap into savings. We typically have one thing we are financing at a time. We were very clear-eyed on the process and it worked out EXACTLY like we thought.

And it was 10 grand, not 30 grand or 50 grand. Which was the benefit of buying 25 years ago.

The DVC market goes up and down. It's smart to buy when it's lower, wouldn't you agree?

I’m just not going to agree that it is ever smart to take out a timeshare loan at whatever usury rate they are charging (right now 12 percentish, I’m sure it was less when you bought). If you have the money to buy it outright and still have a comfortable savings, then you should buy it outright. If you don’t have the money to buy it outright and still have a comfortable savings, then you shouldn’t buy. What you did worked out for you, but it is not sound advice in my opinion.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Doesn’t need to be the median or a few months ago. In 2021/early 2022, BLT was routinely listed and sold $180-200.

Routinely listed doesn’t mean that was what it was selling for, and a few outlier sales prices don’t matter. Look, I just found a current listing for BLT at $210: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/bay-lake-tower/bl52056/

Hurray, the crash is over!!!!

Do you see the error in your logic?

 

[mdembko]

Doesn’t need to be the median or a few months ago. In 2021/early 2022, BLT was routinely listed and sold $180-200.

What matters is where the highest and lowest prices are, really. If I see a BLT sell for $200, I say BLT sold for $200. If I see BLT sell for $100, I say BLT sold for $100. I’m looking at highs and lows.

I tend to value resale contracts by looking at the median sale value and I believe most informed buyers would make offers based on those values. You will always find outliers on both end of the spectrum and if you look at the 2021/2022 time frame there were highs in the $180 - $195, but also lows from $135 - $150. The highs were mostly for very small contracts which always go for a premium, the medians were in the $160 - $175 range at the peak of the buying frenzy and were propped up by ROFR.

Like Sandisw and others have mentioned, you cannot lump BLT in with other resorts because of its very desirable location. No one knows where prices will bottom out and like the high prices of the buying frenzy you may see a $100 sale during the selling frenzy if ROFR is suspended, but I think most potential buys would jump at the $120 price point.

 

[Ruttangel]

I think it’s because you are talking specifically about BLT. People will scoop it up quickly at $120 which would prevent it from falling too far.

All DVC resorts are not equal and the economy may not hit each one the same. People who were choosing SSR last year at $120 when BLT was $150, will Snap up that near park resort.

Like I shared, IMO, places like SSR and AKV will take the bigger hits and places like BLT will settle in to a higher level.

SSR yes, OKW 2042 is currently getting hammered too. Disagree with AKV, too many years left and has unique booking categories.
BLT is currently the only monorail resort where getting a studio means you need to own there, VGF and PVB easy to get at 7 months.

 

[BeachClub2014]

SSR yes, OKW 2042 is currently getting hammered too. Disagree with AKV, too many years left and has unique booking categories.
BLT is currently the only monorail resort where getting a studio means you need to own there, VGF and PVB easy to get at 7 months.

I hope OKW keeps getting "hammered" so I can buy some more. Excellent points chart to stay there so you can stretch points even further!

 

[Ruttangel]

I hope OKW keeps getting "hammered" so I can buy some more. Excellent points chart to stay there so you can stretch points even further!

Oh yeah, I own at OKW as well, just 35 points though. Sorry I missed the $90 listings on extended small contracts last week.

 

[havoc315]

Location, general resort desirability, dues, and contract length all go into the individual market for each resort.

In a DVC-bear market, prices of all resorts may fall. They may all fall by similar degrees. But they won't all hit the same bottom price.
VGF re-sale will also be more than BRV re-sale. BLT resale will always be more than SSR.

Where we likely will see a divergence -- At some point (maybe now) the prices of the 2042 resorts will diverge from the longer contracts. In doing simple math, the demand for contracts with 10-15 years left just won't be the same as demand for contracts with 30+ years left.

Here is a big turning point to look for in the next couple of years:
Watch for when BCV re-sale prices fall below AKV and RIV. It will happen. A year ago, BWV was clearly a step above AKV and RIV, now it's about even or a step below. Same will happen to BCV sometime in the future. As the contract length becomes a bigger con than the pros of the resort desirability.
Eventually, you'll get to a point where SSR has higher resale value than BCV. (though that might not be until the 2030's).

 

[Sandisw]

Are you sure about that??? Since AP are no longer available to anyone, and it seems that Disney is going to be limiting attendance and AP distribution moving forward, are people really going to be scooping up a lot more points to go multiple times a year? I know we had thought about it, but without the guarantee that AP are going to be coming back, we are holding off buying anymore points. Right now we have enough points to go once a year, but because of the price of park tickets we won't buy more points to go twice in a year. In fact we just sold a VGF contract that would have let us go twice a year, but sold because of the AP/Ticket situation. We could pick up more points for VGF right now for $145/point probably, which was the price in 2016 when we started, but won't because of this situation. I'm sure we are not the only family that is dealing with this.

I feel confident about it yes. I think BLt is one of those resorts that simply won’t far to the $100 level mark because buyers won’t let it.

This year we had people paying that for an SSR contract because BLt was $140 to $150. So, even if that’s where they wanted to own, it may have pushed it out too far.

Now, one could get it this year at a similar price as SSR last year. I think they will be enough to make those looking to buy into DVC a chance to own it and not have to pick up something like SSR because BLt was too much.

We shall see..but I just don’t see it going that low.

 

[tom1944]

For my purchase I weighed location, contract length, years remaining, point chart and availability for specific room types.

I gave 5 resorts increased value for location. The 3 monorail resorts and the Crescent Lake properties.

I calculated a 2% per year penalty when comparing contract expiration dates.

I gave 3 resorts the lowest score for location SSR, OKW and AK

3 resorts were second tier for location Riviera, Copper Creek and Boulder Ridge

Even with all of that there is an emotional factor that will weigh heavily on the ultimate decision.

My initial contract was purely to get points but both my daughter and wife love SSR. My wife loves the theme and my daughter loves being close to Disney Springs.

We are booked for BLT in August and when we visit, I can see my wife falling in love with Boulder Ridge and Animal Kingdom and my daughter with Boardwalk and Beach Club.

That means all my formulas get thrown out. Those 4 do have good point charts though.

 

[tom1944]

I feel confident about it yes. I think BLt is one of those resorts that simply won’t far to the $100 level mark because buyers won’t let it.

This year we had people paying that for an SSR contract because BLt was $140 to $150. So, even if that’s where they wanted to own, it may have pushed it out too far.

Now, one could get it this year at a similar price as SSR last year. I think they will be enough to make those looking to buy into DVC a chance to own it and not have to pick up something like SSR because BLt was too much.

We shall see..but I just don’t see it going that low.

I agree with you. I do think BLT suffers a little bit because it does not have the fantasy theme that other properties have.

Location for families with a toddler is tough to beat though.

 

[Stank]

I think it’s because you are talking specifically about BLT. People will scoop it up quickly at $120 which would prevent it from falling too far.

All DVC resorts are not equal and the economy may not hit each one the same. People who were choosing SSR last year at $120 when BLT was $150, will Snap up that near park resort.

Like I shared, IMO, places like SSR and AKV will take the bigger hits and places like BLT will settle in to a higher level.

Just had the second biggest drop in real disposable income in history, only behind 1932. Biggest 401K hardship withdrawals % of employed, above 2020 or 2009.

The Wile E Coyote complacent economy. Walking off the side of the cliff unaware there’s no foundation below until Wile E looks down. Everything is flashing red saying trouble ahead, but many don’t realize an issue until in the rearview. Then it’s the typical, “Oh, well yeah, everyone knew things weren’t right….”

 

[Sandisw]

Just had the second biggest drop in real disposable income in history, only behind 1932. Biggest 401K hardship withdrawals % of employed, above 2020 or 2009.

The Wile E Coyote complacent economy. Walking off the side of the cliff unaware there’s no foundation below until Wile E looks down. Everything is flashing red saying trouble ahead, but many don’t realize an issue until in the rearview. Then it’s the typical, “Oh, well yeah, everyone knew things weren’t right….”

And that could shrink the buyers, but the ones that are still there, are going to go toward the near park resorts over the others…that is my points.

I also look at averages and not the outliers as to what the market value is so again, we shall see what happens, as none of us know, but I think places like BLT, VGF, and even CCV will see drops, but settle in in that $120 to $140 range during this uncertainty.

We obviously see things a bit differently…..and none of my numbers include ROFR kicking in at all…I am assuming it stays stagnant.