Recent experience in selling BWV contract

[jodifla]

People who take out loans to purchase developer points from any timeshare are generally always making a poor life decision. Disney is not an exception.

Hmm. That's what people told us. But they were wrong. We financed. Paid it off 20 years ago. It was terrific for us, in fact.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Hmm. That's what people told us. But they were wrong. We financed. Paid it off 20 years ago. It was terrific for us, in fact.

Same. We financed our first contract 20 years ago, paid it off early, and that investment in ourselves has paid off tremendously over the years. We could pay cash for our additional contracts over the years, which was better, but we have no regrets about buying when and how we did.

 

[RAD]

Boy, looks like the market has really turned to a buyers market. I looked at the dvcresalemarket web site to see what the BWV market is like compared to when I listed my contract. They now have 74 contracts listed, that's almost 30 more than when I listed in August. The broker had recommended I list at $149 a point for my 200 point contract, I see 200 point contracts now at $122-131. And the brokers instant offer that was $123 when they quoted me a price in late November is now $106 per point.

Bottom line is looks like if you want to do a resale buy the force is with you.

 

[Stank]

Boy, looks like the market has really turned to a buyers market. I looked at the dvcresalemarket web site to see what the BWV market is like compared to when I listed my contract. They now have 74 contracts listed, that's almost 30 more than when I listed in August. The broker had recommended I list at $149 a point for my 200 point contract, I see 200 point contracts now art $122-131. And the brokers instant offer that was $123 when they quoted me a price in late November is now $106 per point.

Bottom line is looks like if you want to do a resale buy the force is with you.

There are a lot of forces that will feed on themselves and drive it lower.

1) Disney hasn’t done itself any favors with missteps
2) Revenge travel is waning. 50 year WDW celebration is almost over
3) Disney is “discounting” hotels now, and those discounts have a long way to go
4) DVC dues escalate every year and are fixed
5) Tens of thousands of $$$ for a timeshare in this economy??
6) DVC rental market is softening tremendously as sellers pull listings and are desperate for income to offset their contracts. Many rentals won’t get picked up leaving them to eat dues, lose points, or take a forced vacation and spend thousands more

All this boomerangs to sellers sobering up and being forced to take lower list prices and offers.

DVC peaked. The dynamics of the past aren’t the same. Cheap contracts and low dues made for all this upside possible. Now the dues are really starting to resemble an expensive hotel stay.

Trees don’t grow to the sky. Disney prices have gone up for years but there really is a terminal limit. $10k is the top end most will spend in the best of economies. Anything above that and you enter the realm of home remodeling and car purchase. Vacations are a cash/credit card transaction. I think $10k will be the hard ceiling 20 years from now. Disney hotel pricing will be aggressive going forward and I really think they’re boxed in. Meanwhile DVC is forced to hike dues every year, essentially. So that floor is rising as hotel prices, the competition to DVC, can be priced anywhere Disney needs to fill rooms. That $1000 Contemporary standard view at the peak could be $300 in a bad economy. That makes DVC out of the question

 

[Stank]

If you owe, say $20K on a listing, would you sell it for $19K, knowing that you will have to pay thousands to close? I am not sure your example is that anyone is being unreasonable, in fact, sounds like they were being very upfront as to why they couldn't go lower than a certain number. As someone who just sold and someone who's been bought many contracts, I see both sides. The comments lately seem to have some very aggressive attitudes in regards to buying and seem to get angry when a seller isn't willing to discount 50% or to a super below market price offer. The brokers aren't the ones making up the prices, the market it - market price is just that, market price. Sure, they may come down more and probably will, but for right now if market price is say, $100 pp, I would say it is unreasonable to make an offer at $50 pp and get upset that you aren't getting what you want. Buyers and sellers can only go off what is selling NOW, not what it "may" be in 6 months or for sellers, what it WAS 6 months ago.

Owing $1k is better than owing $20k on something that also drains cash flow (dues).

As good as DVC is, it doesn’t defy reality. Holding the product burns cash, using it burns more. The food/entertainment/merchandise/airfare/rental car are thousands upon thousands of dollars a year. That’s the true cost of ownership. Some sellers aren’t motivated and don’t need to be, but DVC resale prices are correcting to reality far quicker than sellers realize, and I don’t think it’s going to bounce back. We will have price plateaus, stagnation, stabilization, and then further declines. The entire paradigm of “I bought at X and used it for 10 years and now it’s 1.5X” is quickly changing. And I don’t know why it would recover and return to historical price hikes—-increasing dues makes that highly unlikely.

Easy to buy DVC at $80 with $4 dues. The dues are more than double and keep rising. The only discount is for the contract price to drop.

 

[Disney_escape]

There are a lot of forces that will feed on themselves and drive it lower.

1) Disney hasn’t done itself any favors with missteps
2) Revenge travel is waning. 50 year WDW celebration is almost over
3) Disney is “discounting” hotels now, and those discounts have a long way to go
4) DVC dues escalate every year and are fixed
5) Tens of thousands of $$$ for a timeshare in this economy??
6) DVC rental market is softening tremendously as sellers pull listings and are desperate for income to offset their contracts. Many rentals won’t get picked up leaving them to eat dues, lose points, or take a forced vacation and spend thousands more

All this boomerangs to sellers sobering up and being forced to take lower list prices and offers.

DVC peaked. The dynamics of the past aren’t the same. Cheap contracts and low dues made for all this upside possible. Now the dues are really starting to resemble an expensive hotel stay.

Trees don’t grow to the sky. Disney prices have gone up for years but there really is a terminal limit. $10k is the top end most will spend in the best of economies. Anything above that and you enter the realm of home remodeling and car purchase. Vacations are a cash/credit card transaction. I think $10k will be the hard ceiling 20 years from now. Disney hotel pricing will be aggressive going forward and I really think they’re boxed in. Meanwhile DVC is forced to hike dues every year, essentially. So that floor is rising as hotel prices, the competition to DVC, can be priced anywhere Disney needs to fill rooms. That $1000 Contemporary standard view at the peak could be $300 in a bad economy. That makes DVC out of the question

While Disney definitely has forces working against them, and could do way better. Hard ceilings can and will grow over time well above $10k. A week at the GFV 3 week of Dec (16th-23) is 132 points/standard studio so your current maintenance cost is $1,056 for that week, Disney charges $8k for a 2 queen bed room that week at Grand Flo ($6k if you benefit from the higher occasionally offered 25% off, but seldom that week). If you assume a 3% inflation in 20 years- your dues are $1,908 for that stay and Disney would be charging you $14,448 for that room(10,836 w/25% discount). Remember about 2/3rds of the dues go to pay the cast members working in the DVC, so as cost of employees goes up so will dues (insurance, taxes, materials, etc). I think having a week at Disney 20 years from now costing only $1k more than today vs $5k more has some value.

Incomes go up and costs of living go up, DVC lets people pre-buy/lock in the cost of the structure of a vacation - the cost of up keep, refreshes/remodels every 7 years is not part of the initial cost. Just like if you own a home- when you buy it, it doesn't cover the cost of upkeep, and your insurance, taxes and maintenance aren't locked in for the life of the home. That is why apartments constantly raise their rents. I saw the other today that Orlando had something like 8% increase in average rent increase in 2022.
Now is Disney the best at controlling cost?? probably not as good as someone is on their own home, but I think they do fairly good (way better than Washington )

 

[RAD]

When I looked at the numbers it wasn’t just the DVC component but also the expense at the parks, tickets and food costs are a major component.

 

[Brian Noble]

And I don’t know why it would recover and return to historical price hikes—-increasing dues makes that highly unlikely.

I appreciate the fact that in the almost-week you've been here you've staked out the doom-and-gloom position. I'm also on the downside of the valuation question, to the point where I am nearly shouted down by the True Believers.

But I think you are just wrong here. The secondary-market valuation of DVC (as it is with any timeshare) is driven by prevailing rental rates. Marriott's Maui Ocean Club, ski weeks at the Grand Colorados in Breck, and peak summer at the oceanfront Marriotts on Hilton Head all routinely sell for five figures on the resale market. That's because the cost of renting one of those units is significantly more than the cost of annual fees. It is unlikely that the supply/demand calculus of any of those is going to change so radically that those weeks no longer have an attractive fees/rental spread.

DVC is in a similar position. A Standard 2BR at Saratoga will run you about $2,350/week in Dues for what used to be called Magic Season. My "typical" week in that season is the week spanning end of Feb/beginning of March. Even if I get that room at 30% off rack (arguable) renting from Disney, I'd be paying $5,900. There is a LOT of headroom between $2,350 and $5,900. 2BRs are the "mid-point" in value for DVC; studios are better, 1BRs are worse, so this is probably a fair comparison.

Yes, dues will go up. But so will Disney's prevailing rates. Dues are tied to actual costs, and so probably track inflation fairly closely. Historically, Disney's prevailing rates have exceeded inflation by a little bit. If that holds (no guarantees) then the value of DVC on the resale market will also be non-trivial. True, there have been bumps in the "prevailing rate" road, but none of them last forever, and if one does (say, Florida floods due to climate change) we aren't going to be worrying about what DVC costs.

Will valuations match the post-COVID-fueled run-up? Probably not. The 2020s probably have a lot in common with the 1920s in this way. But, there will still be value there, and a collapse seems very unlikely. Possible? Sure. Not where I'd bet--and again, I'm one of the naysayers.

I think the fly in the ointment might end up being DVC owners trying to undercut Disney in a private rental market. So far, the owners have floated up towards Disney's valuation. But, in a strong downturn that's going to go south in a hurry--just as it did during the Great Recession. But again: recessions do not last forever, and if one does, the last thing we are going to be worried about is our Disney vacations.

Of course, the other problem is that DVC has an expiration date. It will be worth $0 eventually. The shape of the curve between now and then? So far, it's performed better than I'd've expected.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

I appreciate the fact that in the almost-week you've been here you've staked out the doom-and-gloom position. I'm also on the downside of the valuation question, to the point where I am nearly shouted down by the True Believers.

But I think you are just wrong here. The secondary-market valuation of DVC (as it is with any timeshare) is driven by prevailing rental rates. Marriott's Maui Ocean Club, ski weeks at the Grand Colorados in Breck, and peak summer at the oceanfront Marriotts on Hilton Head all routinely sell for five figures on the resale market. That's because the cost of renting one of those units is significantly more than the cost of annual fees. It is unlikely that the supply/demand calculus of any of those is going to change so radically that those weeks no longer have an attractive fees/rental spread.

DVC is in a similar position. A Standard 2BR at Saratoga will run you about $2,350/week in Dues for what used to be called Magic Season. My "typical" week in that season is the week spanning end of Feb/beginning of March. Even if I get that room at 30% off rack (arguable) renting from Disney, I'd be paying $5,900. There is a LOT of headroom between $2,350 and $5,900. 2BRs are the "mid-point" in value for DVC; studios are better, 1BRs are worse, so this is probably a fair comparison.

Yes, dues will go up. But so will Disney's prevailing rates. Dues are tied to actual costs, and so probably track inflation fairly closely. Historically, Disney's prevailing rates have exceeded inflation by a little bit. If that holds (no guarantees) then the value of DVC on the resale market will also be non-trivial. True, there have been bumps in the "prevailing rate" road, but none of them last forever, and if one does (say, Florida floods due to climate change) we aren't going to be worrying about what DVC costs.

Will valuations match the post-COVID-fueled run-up? Probably not. The 2020s probably have a lot in common with the 1920s in this way. But, there will still be value there, and a collapse seems very unlikely. Possible? Sure. Not where I'd bet--and again, I'm one of the naysayers.

I think the fly in the ointment might end up being DVC owners trying to undercut Disney in a private rental market. So far, the owners have floated up towards Disney's valuation. But, in a strong downturn that's going to go south in a hurry--just as it did during the Great Recession. But again: recessions do not last forever, and if one does, the last thing we are going to be worried about is our Disney vacations.

Of course, the other problem is that DVC has an expiration date. It will be worth $0 eventually. The shape of the curve between now and then? So far, it's performed better than I'd've expected.

Well-said.

As to your last point about the shape of the curve, it’ll be interesting if the pull from Epic Universe influences that shape at all.

It’s also interesting how this non-perpetual asset hasn’t depreciated linearly. IMO this is partially attributable to large CAPEX projects (Pandora, Galaxy’s Edge, EPCOT, Tron, etc) that have increased the popularity of the parks and general ecosystem overall.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Of course, the other problem is that DVC has an expiration date. It will be worth $0 eventually. The shape of the curve between now and then? So far, it's performed better than I'd've expected.

This is what will drive contract prices down to zero in the end (we know to a scientific certainty, for example that BWV will be worth $0 in 2042). I agree with you that DVC is almost certainly going to continue to hold some value, and will not end up like other timeshares where you can't give it away (in general). I do, however, wonder what's going to happen with Hilton Head & Vero Beach. The combination of significantly higher (and faster increasing) dues at those two resorts coupled with an expiration date approaching leads me to believe that those two resorts may hit "worthless" category sometime soon. It's not impossible to imagine Vero Beach's dues especially approaching or surpassing the going rental rate for DVC points. At that point, I think those timeshares effectively go to zero (although I'm sure you will still be able to ebay them for maybe closing costs and a few hundred bucks). Will this happen in the next year or two? Probably not. But 5-10 years from now?

 

[Brian Noble]

it’ll be interesting if the pull from Epic Universe influences that shape at all.

My bet: no. Disney's Reality Distortion Field is unmatched.

 

[CarolMN]

This is what will drive contract prices down to zero in the end (we know to a scientific certainty, for example that BWV will be worth $0 in 2042). I agree with you that DVC is almost certainly going to continue to hold some value, and will not end up like other timeshares where you can't give it away (in general). I do, however, wonder what's going to happen with Hilton Head & Vero Beach. The combination of significantly higher (and faster increasing) dues at those two resorts coupled with an expiration date approaching leads me to believe that those two resorts may hit "worthless" category sometime soon. It's not impossible to imagine Vero Beach's dues especially approaching or surpassing the going rental rate for DVC points. At that point, I think those timeshares effectively go to zero (although I'm sure you will still be able to ebay them for maybe closing costs and a few hundred bucks). Will this happen in the next year or two? Probably not. But 5-10 years from now?

I believe both those resorts will be sold at some point. Of course, if they are sold prior to the end date, the sale will need to be subject to the owners' contract rights.

 

[Stank]

I appreciate the fact that in the almost-week you've been here you've staked out the doom-and-gloom position. I'm also on the downside of the valuation question, to the point where I am nearly shouted down by the True Believers.

But I think you are just wrong here. The secondary-market valuation of DVC (as it is with any timeshare) is driven by prevailing rental rates. Marriott's Maui Ocean Club, ski weeks at the Grand Colorados in Breck, and peak summer at the oceanfront Marriotts on Hilton Head all routinely sell for five figures on the resale market. That's because the cost of renting one of those units is significantly more than the cost of annual fees. It is unlikely that the supply/demand calculus of any of those is going to change so radically that those weeks no longer have an attractive fees/rental spread.

DVC is in a similar position. A Standard 2BR at Saratoga will run you about $2,350/week in Dues for what used to be called Magic Season. My "typical" week in that season is the week spanning end of Feb/beginning of March. Even if I get that room at 30% off rack (arguable) renting from Disney, I'd be paying $5,900. There is a LOT of headroom between $2,350 and $5,900. 2BRs are the "mid-point" in value for DVC; studios are better, 1BRs are worse, so this is probably a fair comparison.

Yes, dues will go up. But so will Disney's prevailing rates. Dues are tied to actual costs, and so probably track inflation fairly closely. Historically, Disney's prevailing rates have exceeded inflation by a little bit. If that holds (no guarantees) then the value of DVC on the resale market will also be non-trivial. True, there have been bumps in the "prevailing rate" road, but none of them last forever, and if one does (say, Florida floods due to climate change) we aren't going to be worrying about what DVC costs.

Will valuations match the post-COVID-fueled run-up? Probably not. The 2020s probably have a lot in common with the 1920s in this way. But, there will still be value there, and a collapse seems very unlikely. Possible? Sure. Not where I'd bet--and again, I'm one of the naysayers.

I think the fly in the ointment might end up being DVC owners trying to undercut Disney in a private rental market. So far, the owners have floated up towards Disney's valuation. But, in a strong downturn that's going to go south in a hurry--just as it did during the Great Recession. But again: recessions do not last forever, and if one does, the last thing we are going to be worried about is our Disney vacations.

Of course, the other problem is that DVC has an expiration date. It will be worth $0 eventually. The shape of the curve between now and then? So far, it's performed better than I'd've expected.

Actually, I’ve staked out my position when I woke up 8 days ago, thank-you-very-much.

No, DVC value is driven by economic factors and disposable income. 99% of DVC owners are unaware of what a Hilton timeshare on the secondary market is worth. Prices are set on the margin: the marginal DVC buyer has no clue of Hilton or Marriott timeshares, or dues, or rentals. Just because YOU are is irrelevant, because prices are set by the marginal purchaser, who isn’t privy to the secondary timeshare rental market—good grief.

A fraction of DVC buyers are even aware of the resale market, and a fraction of the resale buyers are aware of the rental market. So your argument is the rentals are what drives prices? I think not, but this is a chicken and egg argument so it’s rather pointless. The rental market is much more of a “dumping ground” for sellers not content with prevailing prices, and so they’re “waiting it out” only to now find rentals are hard to get rid of, so now they’re eating annual dues

Case-in-point, I cannot tell you how many contracts that are listed where 2021/22 points are expiring before closing. Sellers are losing thousands of dollars in points they couldn’t use or get rid of. This suggests my previous argument above stands true: a lot of people aren’t aware of the rental market.

Finally, trees don’t grow to the sky. I’ve made the case several times on other posts: Disney has hit the top they can charge. Everyone points out Disney hikes prices every year and the same has been said for decades; however, the price of deluxe hotels for standard rooms hit $1000/night at Contemporary. So for a week, you’re asking $7k plus taxes for a family to stay in a studio. People think that’ll double because, hey, when they went 5 years ago it was half that. Again, trees don’t grow to the sky.

Above $10k for a vacation, you’re crossing into home remodeling and car purchases. When Disney cost $2-10k you were in an area where people had MANY choices/trade offs/substitutes. That’s why Disney has been able to raise prices and it’s become muscle memory and a foregone conclusion. It used to be deciding between upgrading a couple appliances vs. take that dream Disney vacation. Somehow people think it’ll shift to buying a car vs. that dream Disney vacation. But that’s what you have to believe if you honestly think Disney prices “will only go up, because that’s what’s been going on since 1971!” But just as a 20 foot tree can grow to 50, that doesn’t mean it’s going to grow to 100 feet. People seem to not understand this.

DVC competes with Disney hotels. Disney hotels can discount and bundle to get people in rooms. DVC dues are fixed and escalating. There’s no relief. You’re holding a timeshare you bought at $30-50k or more and having to service what’s an extra mortgage payment or more to have a hotel room for a week. Let’s see: car loans are 72-84 months today, phones are now 36 months vs 24 months before for trade in programs….it seems like the consumer is so tapped they have to stretch payments in perpetuity in order to “afford” anything.

Doom and gloom? Nah, it’s reality. Interesting how DVC can go from $60-100pp direct to $150-300pp resale and people puff their chests at what a great deal it is. Then the moment it descends back to $100pp, it’s “doom and gloom.” Human psychology is interesting. To say it’s doom and gloom that I think a timeshare contract will go from $30k to $20k that has a mortgage payment as the annual carrying cost on top of it speaks to the irrationality tied up in the marketplace.

 

[Stank]

Quick poll of the group: If you were told 8 months ago that Grand Cal would be $225pp resale by January 2023, would you believe it or cast such a proposition aside because it’s “doom and gloom” to think Grand Cal could plunge $75pp in less than a year?

So why would BLT going from $140pp today to $100 be doom and gloom? Better yet, why should I expect any different pushback when the same people likely would’ve scoffed at Grand Cal prices today if you told them it’d be so a year ago?

I just think it’s strange we haven’t had wide scale layoffs yet DVC prices have crashed. Why wouldn’t they go down further if we had the unemployment rate go up?

But what do I know? There are only 2,700 current DVC resale listings currently, or 4x the norm. Contract after contract with double the points expiring before closing.

 

[Sandisw]

Quick poll of the group: If you were told 8 months ago that Grand Cal would be $225pp resale by January 2023, would you believe it or cast such a proposition aside because it’s “doom and gloom” to think Grand Cal could plunge $75pp in less than a year?

So why would BLT going from $140pp today to $100 be doom and gloom? Better yet, why should I expect any different pushback when the same people likely would’ve scoffed at Grand Cal prices today if you told them it’d be so a year ago?

My opinion..VGC was up way to high and had cushion to drop plus VGC is going to appeal to a smaller group of owners,

BLT, being where it is and the number of potential owners who would want it because it is near MK and WDW could slow the fall because buyers will want it so it won’t have a chance to get that low.

Look at SSR…it got way up there because of ROFR…DVD buying it back in the $120s caused people to pay more…that has stopped and it is back down to a more reasonable level.

The big variable is all of this is still ROFR and DVD can prevent it from going to low if they want it too. It won’t take too many buybacks at $120 to keep the price from falling and honestly, I think if peoole can get that resort in that range, demand for it will stay high.

 

[Stank]

My opinion..VGC was up way to high and had cushion to drop plus VGC is going to appeal to a smaller group of owners,

BLT, being where it is and the number of potential owners who would want it because it is near MK and WDW could slow the fall because buyers will want it so it won’t have a chance to get that low.

Look at SSR…it got way up there because of ROFR…DVD buying it back in the $120s caused people to pay more…that has stopped and it is back down to a more reasonable level.

The big variable is all of this is still ROFR and DVD can prevent it from going to low if they want it too. It won’t take too many buybacks at $120 to keep the price from falling and honestly, I think if peoole can get that resort in that range, demand for it will stay high.

That’s a fair take. I just differ on ROFR. I used to agree with the prevailing wisdom that ROFR was a backstop, but I have a new take: ROFR only works if there are buyers. A contract can be listed at a cartoonishly low $10pp, but ROFR doesn’t stop that being listed at $10. A buyer needs to step in before Disney can. I suppose DVD can proactively buy, but ROFR is reactionary. And no, I don’t believe prices will tank that low, but just used as an example list prices can be anywhere.

My view is listing prices will continue to fall with the glut of supply. That’s why I think there’s a lot of “air” supporting the market because ROFR is truly a paper tiger. If DVD ROFRs at $140 BLT, if you have inventory continue to pile up, that represents few buyers. So you get list prices below ROFR. That’s how you get ROFR for BLT above where BLT is selling today. ROFR wasn’t that backstop people became to know it for. It’s just Disney stepping in periodically and sporadically as a reaction to where recency bias is.

BLT at $140 would be ROFR’d all day a year ago. Now they’re sailing through. Because supply has soared and sellers have slashed prices, because buyers have stepped away.

 

[Sandisw]

That’s a fair take. I just differ on ROFR. I used to agree with the prevailing wisdom that ROFR was a backstop, but I have a new take: ROFR only works if there are buyers. A contract can be listed at a cartoonishly low $10pp, but ROFR doesn’t stop that being listed at $10. A buyer needs to step in before Disney can. I suppose DVD can proactively buy, but ROFR is reactionary. And no, I don’t believe prices will tank that low, but just used as an example list prices can be anywhere.

My view is listing prices will continue to fall with the glut of supply. That’s why I think there’s a lot of “air” supporting the market because ROFR is truly a paper tiger. If DVD ROFRs at $140 BLT, if you have inventory continue to pile up, that represents few buyers. So you get list prices below ROFR. That’s how you get ROFR for BLT above where BLT is selling today. ROFR wasn’t that backstop people became to know it for. It’s just Disney stepping in periodically and sporadically as a reaction to where recency bias is.

BLT at $140 would be ROFR’d all day a year ago. Now they’re sailing through. Because supply has soared and sellers have slashed prices, because buyers have stepped away.

I agree that buyers have to exist for ROFR to make a difference but as someone who has sold and bought quite a few contracts over the years I can tell you it plays a role in that pricing.

I also don’t think it impacts all resorts the same way and that some resorts, like BLT will settle higher than lower because of where they are and what they are.

it does not take many contracts to go ROFR to make buyers offer more and sellers expect more

As you said, BLT at $140 wasn’t getting through last year and now it is because DVD has decided not to bother at all.

Just like they stopped, they can start which might stall any huge drop.

But, I think that the more sellers are willing to let something like BLT go in the $120s, there will be plenty of buyers out there to gobble them up fast enough that will keep it around that level.

I still think the higher prices in the past year were a direct result of heavy ROFR and now that it’s gone, the market is adjusting back to normal levels.

It’s why so many of us tell buyers all the time that resale value may not always be there and be careful on using it to make the numbers work.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I am a bit concerned with DVC with regards to Disney’s restructuring and cuts. Does Disney even care about proping up DVC pricing? They are cutting 7,000 jobs, reorganizing, and cutting budgets. This has me nervous as to the long game Disney has with DVC. Big article out today about it.

 

[tom1944]

Disney is a large employer do we know what area those cuts are coming from?

 

[nalabear]

DVC is directly supported by its dues and separate budget sheet from Disney Corp. That said, there's still costs attributed since staffing is negotiated by Disney and those costs simply passed to DVC costs; so it matters on contracts; not necessarily the restructuring and layoffs themselves.

As for pricing -- whatever the market bares, right? ROFR will buoy the price point to a certain extent and allow DVC to grab cheap points and recycle them as needed. The floating price point itself determined by the market.

Eg: 12/2019 VGC we went on a bidding spree. Three contracts ROFR 165-175pp ourselves as did bunches others within a few weeks....until Disney got satiated ROFRs and started letting them through at 178pp.

I do wonder how the pricing will happen with the next big DVC release with Villas of Disneyland Hotel. and compare that to VGC. current direct pricing $217 and say discounts get to $190s; what will the VGC currently 225-245 range resale happen?