Re: 2010 points. 'overall points' at resort rule.

[booger73]

This is just my opinion, and maybe I did numbers wrong, but I don't think I did..

For example: OKW:

Using my excel spreadsheet.. 531 rooms - 274 dedicated 2br, 230 lockoff, 27 GV..

I break it into 230 studio, 230 1-br, 274 2-br, 27 GV

Points before per week before (total points) and after (total points)

80 (18400) vs 77 (17710)
160 (36800) vs 159 (36570)
218 (59732) vs 218 (59732)
356 (9612) vs 352 (9504)
124544 vs 123516 total points in Adventure season (-1028 difference)

82 (18860) vs 79 (18170)
172 (39560) vs 171 (39330)
232 (63568) vs 230 (63020)
372 (10044) vs 361 (9747)
132032 vs 130267 total points in Choice (-1765)

98 (22540) vs 102 (23460)
196 (45080) vs 200 (46000)
263 (72062) vs 264 (72336)
439 (11853) vs 437 (11799)
151535 vs 153595 in Dream (+2060 points)

109 (25070) vs 106 (24380)
218 (50140) vs 220 (50600)
296 (81104) vs 298 (81652)
501 (13527) vs 478 (12906)
169841 vs 169538 (-303 points) in Magic

147 (33810) vs 154 (35420)
296 (68080) vs 304 (69920)
405 (110970) vs 405 (110970)
654 (17658) vs 617 (16659)
230518 vs 232969 (+2451 in Premier season)

Totals: 808470 (old) vs 809885 (new) i.e. +1415 points overall

So observations - point's aren't actually the same overall.. and it costs more to stay in Dream and Premier..

Less to stay in a "Grand Villa".. and obviously 'more' Sun-Thur

 

[booger73]

In fact, I really think they aren't now.. it's not very obvious with a few +1 to +5 or -1 to -5.. but a little here are there makes a difference

VWL:

44 dedicated 2BR, 20 dedicated studio, 27 1br, 45 lockoff

= 65 studio, 72 1-bedroom, 44 2-bedroom

Again, old pts week (total pts) , new pts week (total new pts).

Adventure:
104 (6760), 105 (6825)
200 (14400), 206 (14832)
270 (11880), 270 (11880)
Total: 33040 vs 33537 (+497)

Choice
106 (6890), 105 (6825)
214 (15408), 220 (15840)
282 (12408), 279 (12276)
Total 34706 vs 34941 (+235)

Dream
123 (7995), 118 (7670)
252 (18144), 254 (18288)
314 (13816), 313 (13772)
Total 39955 vs 39730 (-225)

Magic
134 (8710) vs 127 (8255)
270 (19440) vs 272 (19584)
350 (15400) vs 352 (15488)
Total 43550 vs 43327 (-223)

Premier
181 (11765) vs 175 (11375)
350 (25200) vs 345 (24840)
462 (20328) vs 457 (20108)
Total 57293 vs 56323 (-970)

Total: 208544 vs 207858 (-686)

Interestingly.. it's 'less' overall. But now more in Adventure and Choice.. less in the other seasons

One more addendum: I know it's probably boring to see all these numbers so I"m not going to post them all.. but Beach club turns out to be

studio (110 rooms), 1br (94), 2br (78) total rooms

Total points before: 323048, after 323814
With -16 points in adventure, -626 in choice, -46 in dream, 0 change in magic, and +1454 points during premier

 

[RobDoc]

There will also be some minor variation each year based on the number of weekend nights total in the year - possibly the explanation for the small (.0017) variation between those 2 years. Leap years could also result in a minor variation.

It might be intresting to look at the actual totals for the past few years and see the variation even when no points were changed.

 

[booger73]

There will also be some minor variation each year based on the number of weekend nights total in the year - possibly the explanation for the small (.0017) variation between those 2 years. Leap years could also result in a minor variation.

I think you're exactly right Doc -
not that it's exactly the same # overall.. and not sure if it 'seems to matter'..
Interesting exercise for me though.. at least it's not "humongously" off

But, it does seem that the overall change happens to be 'more in some Seasons, less in others". "More for certain rooms" and "less for others" at times.. and obviously "more for Sun-Thurs.."

 

[DisneyWalker44]

A year is 52 weeks + 1 or 2 "extra" days.

In 2008, the extra was 2 weekdays
In 2009, the extra was one weekday
In 2010, the extra will be a Friday.

 

[bookwormde]

The trick is to run it for the same year. If they did it correctly it should be the same except that you have to check to see how it works at different % of lockoffs figured as 2br vs Studio plus 1BR since DVC has never released the information of how this count was done with the initial sales.

bookwormde

 

[RobDoc]

The trick is to run it for the same year. If they did it correctly it should be the same except that you have to check to see how it works at different % of lockoffs figured as 2br vs Studio plus 1BR since DVC has never released the information of how this count was done with the initial sales.

bookwormde

That's a good point. The lock-off 2BR can be "valued" as a 2BR, but are often actually used as a Studio and a 1BR - which uses more points than the 2BR. I don't know which value they actually use, but again the variation is relatively small at each resort and appears to me to be within legal tolerance.

 

[bookwormde]

Is there any documentation as to if there is and what the allowable variance would be? I had assumed that DVC would just get as close as possible without being over and “retire” the amount of points that was the difference.

bookwormde

 

[ILuvMulan]

Holy cow! You guys have way too much time on your hands. I feel like I have been to a statistics class at Harvard . Glad somebody can figure this stuff out in such detail.

 

[tidefan]

Holy cow! You guys have way too much time on your hands. I feel like I have been to a statistics class at Harvard . Glad somebody can figure this stuff out in such detail.

Well, nobody's brought up the Central Limit Theorem or Logistic Regression, but I digress...

I definitely think that some of the difference is coming from how they count 2 bedroom lock-offs. Could you figure any of this out from the Maximum Allocation charts. Aren't they in the POS?

 

[Muhlenberg]

My mathematical mind was wondering about this. They probably go by previous history of how many 2-BR lock-offs vs. dedicateds in terms of point usage.

 

[Brian Noble]

I've always wondered how they managed the accounting for lockoffs, which are "worth less" combined than separated. Most other piont systems keep them equivalent, so a 2BR LO is a studio + 1BR, but a 2BR dedicated is usually less.

 

[OldsDr]

In fact, I really think they aren't now.. it's not very obvious with a few +1 to +5 or -1 to -5.. but a little here are there makes a difference

VWL:

44 dedicated 2BR, 20 dedicated studio, 27 1br, 45 lockoff

= 65 studio, 72 1-bedroom, 44 2-bedroom

Again, old pts week (total pts) , new pts week (total new pts).

Adventure:
104 (6760), 105 (6825)
200 (14400), 206 (14832)
270 (11880), 270 (11880)
Total: 33040 vs 33537 (+497)

Choice
106 (6890), 105 (6825)
214 (15408), 220 (15840)
282 (12408), 279 (12276)
Total 34706 vs 34941 (+235)

Dream
123 (7995), 118 (7670)
252 (18144), 254 (18288)
314 (13816), 313 (13772)
Total 39955 vs 39730 (-225)

Magic
134 (8710) vs 127 (8255)
270 (19440) vs 272 (19584)
350 (15400) vs 352 (15488)
Total 43550 vs 43327 (-223)

Premier
181 (11765) vs 175 (11375)
350 (25200) vs 345 (24840)
462 (20328) vs 457 (20108)
Total 57293 vs 56323 (-970)

Total: 208544 vs 207858 (-686)

Interestingly.. it's 'less' overall. But now more in Adventure and Choice.. less in the other seasons

One more addendum: I know it's probably boring to see all these numbers so I"m not going to post them all.. but Beach club turns out to be

studio (110 rooms), 1br (94), 2br (78) total rooms

Total points before: 323048, after 323814
With -16 points in adventure, -626 in choice, -46 in dream, 0 change in magic, and +1454 points during premier

I did not read entire thread so I am sorry if someone else already said this, but I believe your math has an error in that each booking season has a different number of days which need to be applied to the equation befor you are accuratly comparing the points from 2008/2009 to 2010.