Random Thoughts

[kendo911]

We are considering doing an add on at the VWl or BWV for a small contract. Of course we are looking at getting the best deal. Just a few questions looking from insight from the experts.

1) With the anticipated release of GCV and the rumor BLT prices are sure to go up. Will we see the 2042 resorts finally peak and may even fall as the dealine approaches. I see that OKW 2042 offer on resale for low 70's

2) Thoughts on people dumping the smaller contracts to buy GCV and others making it a little easier to get one

3) Which is the easier route. Resale at 85-88 or direct with Disney

Thanks for all of the help

Ken

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Hey Ken:

You mention situations that both increase and decrease cost pressures for BWV and VWL. With economic troubles that specifically effect the travel industry, possibly for the long term, I would expect DVC prices to decline. Inflationary pressures could make prices rise however. Even the best economists can only guess at what will happen in the economy. There are some really scary economic scenarios out there right now for the national economy. However, I'm reluctant to be Chicken Little.

Although prices may drop, I personally do not see the "bottom dropping out" of 2042 prices any time soon. If you visit WDW often, you will pay more for accommodations from CRO than the difference in waiting. Resale prices have already taken a pretty good hit. Buyers and sellers have already taken high gas prices into account.

IMHO...You are better off purchasing now even though you might save $300 or more later than delaying the purchase and booking a trip through CRO. (I'm assuming a drop of $3/point for 100 points.)

Also consider that maintenance fees will likely increase by at least 5% due to inflationary pressures.

If you have time and wish to purchase at the "best" price, your other choice is to conduct a trend analysis and purchase at the first uptick in the market.

Financially you are better off to stay at home than ever take a vacation of any kind including those taken in a timeshare.

I hope this helps, and I do teach Economics when I'm not on the DIS.

 

[WALTSAGOD]

Resale at 85-88, whats that?

 

[tjkraz]

Prices for those older resorts will almost certainly drop. BLT and VGC should have contracts almost 20 years longer than the class of '42. In addition to people already inclined to sell for economic reasons, it's inevitable that some contracts will hit the market because their owners want to buy into one of the newer properties.

In addition to the increased supply, demand may reach a new low due to the appeal of the newer resorts.

There may well be contracts listed at rather low rates, simply to generate an offer. The real question we can't answer is how far DVC's ROFR would fall. There's nothing preventing a BWV owner from listing his contract at $70 per point, but that doesn't mean DVC will let it get away. They still have waiting lists for many resorts and Use Years, so it would be in their interest to keep grabbing contracts for some time.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Prices for those older resorts will almost certainly drop. BLT and VGC should have contracts almost 20 years longer than the class of '42. In addition to people already inclined to sell for economic reasons, it's inevitable that some contracts will hit the market because their owners want to buy into one of the newer properties.

In addition to the increased supply, demand may reach a new low due to the appeal of the newer resorts.

There may well be contracts listed at rather low rates, simply to generate an offer. The real question we can't answer is how far DVC's ROFR would fall. There's nothing preventing a BWV owner from listing his contract at $70 per point, but that doesn't mean DVC will let it get away. They still have waiting lists for many resorts and Use Years, so it would be in their interest to keep grabbing contracts for some time.

The only thing that I would think would really hurt the "small" contracts at BWV or VWL is the new 100 point offers at AKV. In the past, these contracts always sold at a premium because it was how people like me got into the system. At last glance, a 100 pt. BWV contract was listing for $85/pt. I would be really surprised to see this drop below $80 / pt. (and $75 for larger contracts.)

I still think OP needs to consider his/her time horizon. If he/she doesn't plan to go back for 2 years, wait and see how this shakes out. If they want to go in 6 months, then go ahead and purchase so that you can use DVC instead of pay rack rates because I really don't think the bottom is going to drop out (i.e., $70 for small BWV contract).

OP, what do you consider a small contract? I've seen some posters mention that they want a small contract of 300 points!

 

[kendo911]

thanks to all for information. Keep it coming.

I consider small a 75-100 point contract