PVB the new DVC?

[disneynutz]

PVB seems so out of whack, is this the new direction for DVC or the end of Potrock?

What's your thoughts?

Bill

 

[MouseMomx2]

Just curious, but why do they seem out of whack to you? I see it as Disney having a unique opportunity at the Poly and capitalizing on it. It's really no different than the beach cottages at Vero, except they make them smaller due to space issues (you wouldn't want two-story cottages blocking the view for the rest of the resort).

I think of the bungalows like the treehouses at SSR...a unique villa-type that carries a higher point value. I doubt you'll see them putting bungalow-style villas at every DVC resort. I also expect to see 1 and 2 bedroom villas at the Poly eventually. This is, after all, just Phase 1.

 

[tjkraz]

Out of whack how?

If you're referring to the all-Studio development, I don't think it will hurt much. Poly fans are used to just the standard hotel setup. And it appears DVC has been under-building Studios (relative to demand) for many years.

Also, I believe it's a near-certainty that DVC will eventually construct new buildings at the Poly with One and Two Bedroom villas.

Poly bungalows may prove to be overpriced but that could be fixed with a reallocation. 20 bungalows isn't a lot to fill. Given the views, private pools and overall uniqueness, they will be in demand. Probably not all booked by owners at 11 months with their $160 poly points. I bet there are a lot of folks with $40-50 resale points who would splurge on a Bungalow at 7 months.

 

[disneynutz]

Just curious, but why do they seem out of whack to you? I see it as Disney having a unique opportunity at the Poly and capitalizing on it. It's really no different than the beach cottages at Vero, except they make them smaller due to space issues (you wouldn't want two-story cottages blocking the view for the rest of the resort).

I think of the bungalows like the treehouses at SSR...a unique villa-type that carries a higher point value. I doubt you'll see them putting bungalow-style villas at every DVC resort. I also expect to see 1 and 2 bedroom villas at the Poly eventually. This is, after all, just Phase 1.

I think that they are over estimating the popularity and setting too high of point requirement and price. IMO no way should the bungalows cost more that a flagship VGF Grand Villa.

DVD must have convinced the powers to be to give up 3 long houses based on sales within a certain time frame, will they be able to hit the mark? Will there be additional phases?

If they build it, they will come but at some point they will push it too far.

Recent ROFR activity might be a sign of DVD shifting to the older resorts in anticipation of slow Poly sales?

Should be interesting!

Bill

 

[DebbieB]

I think that they are over estimating the popularity and setting too high of point requirement and price. IMO no way should the bungalows cost more that a flagship VGF Grand Villa.

DVD must have convinced the powers to be to give up 3 long houses based on sales within a certain time frame, will they be able to hit the mark? Will there be additional phases?

If they build it, they will come but at some point they will push it too far.

Recent ROFR activity might be a sign of DVD shifting to the older resorts in anticipation of slow Poly sales?

Should be interesting!

Bill

That's what I've been wondering for awhile. When will the market become oversaturated? I thought it would with BLT and then VGF but they sold.

I think the bungalows are an exclusive product that they are betting on people with alot of money buying. I don't think it compares to the VGF grand villas. They are unique.

The studios I think are reasonable for the average person buying into DVC, I think they will sell. They are betting on the hotel popularity of the Polynesian will carry over to the studios.

I agree with Tim that there are more buildings on the backburner, with 1 and 2 bedrooms.

 

[disneynutz]

That's what I've been wondering for awhile. When will the market become oversaturated? I thought it would with BLT and then VGF but they sold.

I think the bungalows are an exclusive product that they are betting on people with alot of money buying. I don't think it compares to the VGF grand villas. They are unique.

The studios I think are reasonable for the average person buying into DVC, I think they will sell. They are betting on the hotel popularity of the Polynesian will carry over to the studios.

I agree with Tim that there are more buildings on the backburner, with 1 and 2 bedrooms.

How popular can the Poly be if they are willing to give up 3 buildings for DVC? The Grand Floridian didn't give up any buildings, even AKL only gave up the 5th floor at Jambo and AKL was known to have really low occupancy.

Bill

 

[jerseyduke]

That's what I've been wondering for awhile. When will the market become oversaturated? I thought it would with BLT and then VGF but they sold.

I think the bungalows are an exclusive product that they are betting on people with alot of money buying. I don't think it compares to the VGF grand villas. They are unique.

The studios I think are reasonable for the average person buying into DVC, I think they will sell. They are betting on the hotel popularity of the Polynesian will carry over to the studios.

I agree with Tim that there are more buildings on the backburner, with 1 and 2 bedrooms.

The bungalows are not an exclusive product. The are part of the PVB product but they are the same as the studios.


And that is why the Bungalows are brilliant. You do not buy a studio, you buy points. You do not buy Studio points or Bungalow Points, you buy points.

The Bungalows add almost another 1 million points to the resort. They are going to total about 25% of the total PVB points.

If every single person who buys into the poly, and I mean every one, 100%, no exceptions, never plans on staying in a bungalow, why would disney even care?

Because if the above actually does happen, the resort is sold out, then the bungalows did indeed sell, yet no one bought them in a manner of thinking.

1 million points at 160 per point. 160 Million dollars - costs. And that is just for the bungalows.

If people buy fixed weeks, great, if not, still make the profit. Brilliant.

 

[Reddog1134]

How popular can the Poly be if they are willing to give up 3 buildings for DVC? The Grand Floridian didn't give up any buildings, even AKL only gave up the 5th floor at Jambo and AKL was known to have really low occupancy.

Bill

I think a hotel/DVC management is trying to fool upper management.

They raise rack rate prices at Poly to price out the average guest. Occupancy drops, then they tell upper management "No one wants to stay at the Poly, lets turn some buildings into DVC".

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Also, I believe it's a near-certainty that DVC will eventually construct new buildings at the Poly with One and Two Bedroom villas.

This sentiment is being expressed in a number of threads throughout the board. I would like to know where individuals are envisioning this Phase 2 development will take place. Given the land lease of the three longhouses, Ticket & Transportation Center, roadways and Seven Seas Lagoon, requisite space seems quite limited.

Unless there is a plan to convert more longhouses or raze Aotearoa and Luau Cove, I just do not see the space.

 

[tjkraz]

That's what I've been wondering for awhile. When will the market become oversaturated? I thought it would with BLT and then VGF but they sold.

Well, in one sense it won't ever be. The market is constantly growing on the young end. Some of the people buying Poly points were in college or high school when the likes of BCV and SSR were selling.

As long as that new business grows at a faster rate than older members selling-off unwanted points, DVC will remain healthy.

But I think DVC is also trying to change the program's identity. MY original motivation for buying DVC was to have access to the larger One and Two Bedroom villas. But not everyone shares that mindset. Walt Disney World successfully fills 20,000 - 25,000 hotel rooms every single night...even at its inflated rates.

Poly rooms often run $500-600 per night, plus tax. Let's assume some pretty healthy discounting and use a figure of $400 per night. A 7-day / 6-night stay will run about $2400.

Those same 6 nights cost 99-110 DVC points in the two cheapest seasons. At $160 per point, figure $18k up front.

Even with annual dues, it will pay for itself in less than 10 years...with 40 years of discounted trips remaining. Disney wraps it all up in an affordable monthly payment.

Forget what we know about resale. Timeshare sales have always thrived on the uninformed. *I* could sell DVC points at those numbers.

I think we have to abandon any personal bias that many of us have for the larger villas. Many people are still quite content with a Studio-sized accommodation--particularly with the split bathroom and large square footage of the Poly.

 

[disney junky]

I think the appeal is the difference. Imagine making the old Discovery Island a Gilligan's Island resort. And as weird as it sounds, someone would buy it. We all think according to our likes and dislikes, our own wants and needs.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

I think that they are over estimating the popularity and setting too high of point requirement and price. IMO no way should the bungalows cost more that a flagship VGF Grand Villa.

I can appreciate the unique vacationing opportunity offered by the bungalows. However, I, too, find it odd that the bungalows are equal or more in cost than a VGF Grand Villa. Nightly fireworks aside, VGF Grand Villas offer much more in terms of occupancy, space and furnishings.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

How popular can the Poly be if they are willing to give up 3 buildings for DVC? The Grand Floridian didn't give up any buildings, even AKL only gave up the 5th floor at Jambo and AKL was known to have really low occupancy.

Bill

This is, by far, the most intriguing question of them all. If the allure, nostalgia and fan-base of the Polynesian is so tremendous, then why were three longhouses converted?

Personally, I think occupancy must have been dismal. You may be an ardent fan of something, but that does not mean that you have the money to afford it.

 

[jerseyduke]

This sentiment is being expressed in a number of threads throughout the board. I would like to know where individuals are envisioning this Phase 2 development will take place. Given the land lease of the three longhouses, Ticket & Transportation Center, roadways and Seven Seas Lagoon, requisite space seems quite limited.

Unless there is a plan to convert more longhouses or raze Aotearoa and Luau Cove, I just do not see the space.

I was down there I think it was December of 2012, and they has site balloons up to the west, and north west of the Fiji long house.. There is potential space over in that area between the long houses and Luau Cover. Unless they did not like what the site balloons told them

 

[tjkraz]

I would like to know where individuals are envisioning this Phase 2 development will take place.

Older plans called for Luau Cove and Rapa Nui to be removed for large 5-story buildings. Disney even floated balloons around 2012 to gauge sight lines.

Reason they put those buildings on the back-burner was money. Given all of the dollars they earmarked for resort-wide renovations, they decided to stick with DVC room conversions rather than building anew. Rapa Nui is obviously off the table now--unless they leak out into the parking lots and include ground floor covered parking like Kidani.

Luau Cove area plans could easily be revived.

DVC has another 25 years before the first wave of resort contracts ends. They have no plans to end DVC sales. Expect to see a lot of creative developments in the coming years.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Luau Cove area plans could easily be revived.

DVC has another 25 years before the first wave of resort contracts ends. They have no plans to end DVC sales. Expect to see a lot of creative developments in the coming years.

Although I do not lose sleep over it, my only concern is in regards to aesthetics and sightlines. I acknowledge that condominium towers allow for smaller footprints and more units. However, the addition of a T-shaped building at Disney's Polynesian Village would have the shores of the Seven Seas Lagoon defined by timeshare towers.

 

[drusba]

The mostly studio with connecting studio concept for Poly will I believe result in it being a best seller. At current prices and point requirements for the new resorts, most of the target audience can no longer buy except for studios as demonstrated by VGF and its now ungodly demand for studios and weak demand for dedicated 2BRs and GVs.

The combined point price and points needed for a Poly studio is in the same range as VGF which has had excellent sales for those buying to get studios. Poly offers the added advantage that the purchaser for only another layer of studio points can get essentially a 2BR via connecting studios without paying usual 2BR cost. Absent another recession, I expect Poly to sell better than VGF. As Jerseyduke has pointed out the bungalows are just a feint. They give DVD a huge number of extra points to sell to purchasers buying to get studios and it matters not to DVD whether any members ever use the bungalows. DVD's being able to rent the bungalows out to non-memebers sometimes for any amount is just gravy on top of the huge amount of sales they add for persons buying to get a studio, and all those buying to get studios will be paying for all the maintennance and repairs of the bungalows that Disney will be renting out.

 

[jerseyduke]

The mostly studio with connecting studio concept for Poly will I believe result in it being a best seller. At current prices and point requirements for the new resorts, most of the target audience can no longer buy except for studios as demonstrated by VGF and its now ungodly demand for studios and weak demand for dedicated 2BRs and GVs.

The combined point price and points needed for a Poly studio is in the same range as VGF which has had excellent sales for those buying to get studios. Poly offers the added advantage that the purchaser for only another layer of studio points can get essentially a 2BR via connecting studios without paying usual 2BR cost. Absent another recession, I expect Poly to sell better than VGF. As Jerseyduke has pointed out the bungalows are just a feint. They give DVD a huge number of extra points to sell to purchasers buying to get studios and it matters not to DVD whether any members ever use the bungalows. DVD's being able to rent the bungalows out to non-memebers sometimes for any amount is just gravy on top of the huge amount of sales they add for persons buying to get a studio, and all those buying to get studios will be paying for all the maintennance and repairs of the bungalows that Disney will be renting out.[/QUOTE]

That is another great point!

Really, the more I think about it, the slicker I think it is. Say those Bungalows cost 2.5 million each to build. That's 50 million. Based on points, and pricing, the sale value of them is about 150 million. So, when they sell them, thats 100 million in profit (minus cost of selling, etc).

And the kick of it all: They don't have to sell them to make that money! I am actually surprised that they are not more points! Of course, I do think some people will buy at the Poly with the Bungalows as a target. But, in the event not a soul does, DVD still makes the profit.

God, why can't I come up with a racket like that!

 

[Missyrose]

I think what Disney/DVC is doing with the Poly is a signal that DVC is looking to sell to a different audience than it sold to previously. I think Disney/DVC is banking on the Poly faithful making up a majority of the Poly DVC buying group. They love the Poly, won't stay anywhere else and don't dislike staying in a hotel room. Between those factors and sky-high point costs, most of these new buyers will only be in the market for studios, hence the hundreds of them. DVC didn't build the Poly for current DVC owners, it was built for the existing Poly audience. Also that new DVC audience won't care that the MFs at Poly are starting at 20 cents higher per point than VGF currently sits. They don't know how much other resorts MFs are and probably will never care.

 

[jerseyduke]

That is certainly a possibility. While that may be a factor, I also think wanting/needing it done quickly was another. I also FIRMLY believe that the use of the existing structures almost dictated an all studio arrangement, when coupled with a tight time frame. (I would love to know if any walls were removed!!!) My guess is all the walls between the existing hotel rooms remained intact.

Ironically, DVC members, and Poly Lovers are not a mutually exclusive group. I am both. I was so excited when I heard they were building at the Poly! Then when I learned the details, i decided that I would not be buying at this point in time. Perhaps on the resale market or should another phase introduce 1 Bedroom villas.

This is going to be DVC's best margin product yet!