Putting stock in crowd calendar changes?

I think Touring Plans would beg to differ.

Guessing would mean basing an opinion on no or very little evidence.

Touring Plans uses a ton of good, well sourced data.

https://www.popsci.com/touring-plan-app-disney-lines

Well, sure, of course...they're trying to sell a product, so they're going to try to put meaning behind it. Whether you buy into that is subjective. IMO, there are far too many variables for them to predict exactly what the crowd in Epcot will be on Tuesday August 7th 2018. You're just as well off flipping a coin. Even at it's face value, what is a "3" and what is a "9"?? I know they have their own definition of it, but even that's highly subjective. They may call it a 8, but if you hadn't seen that "prediction" and were asked to give your own judgment of a crowd, you may have called it a 3, or maybe you'd call it a 10.

I agree that very broad generalizations can be made, such as Xmas is far busier than early June, but you don't need TP for that. I know a lot of people subscribe to TP or look at other crowd calendars, and that's certainly up to them. But if asked my opinion, I would steer people away from them and advise not to rely on them.
 
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Since I have a trip in my TP dashboard I also get these tracker updates. I pay no attention to them. I use TP for other things. I go in expecting large crowds. I expected insanity at Epcot on Thanksgiving Day because of crowd calendars and it wasn't bad at all for a holiday. We had a great time and low waits.
 
I just got an email adjusting our TP crowd levels for September. Many went up 1. I'm not putting a lot of stock into that. Especially since earlier, they adjusted a bunch of levels down. I'm sure it will be adjusted again before we go. I'm just not going to worry about it. We're going at a time that works for us and we'll have a great time!
 

They made the general change to levels about a month or two ago. I think this change to early May was a result of the change in hours that Disney posted a couple weeks ago. At the time I got an email saying that park hours changed and that crowd levels are usual updated a couple of weeks later after they have assessed the impact.
 


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