Price Increases Mid January

[ELMC]

Any official list of price increases yet? I may have missed it as this thread moved quick. Curious as to what BLT is going to.

Beach Club isn't quite insane at 225 a point as the demand is clearly there, and there are still 22 years left on the contracts. I don't think they 2042 contracts will take a hit until sometime with 15 to 18 years left on them. They'll stay strong due to location for a while after SWGE opens. I haven't done the math, but I wonder how many years of points left on a contract vs rack rate at would be the breakeven point. Maybe 12 or so if I had to guess.

Many purchasers are comparing the DVC costs to rack rate at the same resort, 225 a point might still make sense when the least expensive room at beach club at the least expensive time is still 450 a night. I don't think I would pay it, but I can see why folks still are.

One I can't figure out is the VGC, those prices are nuts and there isn't a ton of benefit to staying on property in California like there is at WDW.

You should really do the math on this, as Beach Club for $225 a point is the dictionary definition of insane. Here's why:

Purchasing Beach Club costs you $10 per point ($225/22 years) plus $6.94 per point in dues this year. So buying Beach Club this year effectively costs you $16.94 per point. That is before taking into account that you are paying the full $225 per point up front and not amortizing it over 22 years.

By comparison, renting Beach Club points this year will cost you roughly $15-16 per point. So in year ONE renting is the more economical option and will continue to be so for the life of the contract.

Comparing to rack rate prices is a fallacious argument. In order to do a meaningful analysis you need to compare to the next best viable alternative, which in this case is renting.

 

[skippytx]

You should really do the math on this, as Beach Club for $225 a point is the dictionary definition of insane. Here's why:

Purchasing Beach Club costs you $10 per point ($225/22 years) plus $6.94 per point in dues this year. So buying Beach Club this year effectively costs you $16.94 per point. That is before taking into account that you are paying the full $225 per point up front and not amortizing it over 22 years.

By comparison, renting Beach Club points this year will cost you roughly $15-16 per point. So in year ONE renting is the more economical option and will continue to be so for the life of the contract.

Comparing to rack rate prices is a fallacious argument. In order to do a meaningful analysis you need to compare to the next best viable alternative, which in this case is renting.

I'm not going to worry about the math as I'm never going to buy BCV and don't really care, but David's is charging 18 a point for an 11 month BCV reservation, and I've seen confirmed reservations at desirable times go for over 20 a point. Anyone renting their BCV points at 15 to 16 a point is leaving money on the table. More than a few of us feel the 18 David's charges is a little low for some of the resorts (monorail and Epcot resorts)

I'm not starting an argument, but there's just tons of variables that go into these things that it's hard to 100% quantify. Can you find someone to rent the points you need? Can you get the room you want without booking at exactly 11 months out? What's it worth to not go through the hassle of finding someone to rent the points from? Point cost is also only part of it. I prefer to compare accommodation levels. A 2 bedroom villa at BCV during Texas spring break week is 350 points for 2019. Rack rate on that dvc room is 1675 Sun-Thurs and 1800 Fri and Sat night. 2 bedroom club level rooms at BC are 2200+ a night. 350 points at your 17/pp cost is 5950. Renting would cost 6,300 and going through WDW would be almost 12K.

But wait, no one pays full rack rate, there are discounts all the time over the course of the year. More variables to consider, so there's just no real good way to figure it out.

Anyway I'm off track, I don't consider that price level to be "quite insane" just yet looking at everything. It's getting pretty close, but I can totally see where someone who has the disposable income to buy into DVC (350 points would cost about 80 thousand with another 2500+ a year in annual dues) can look at BCV points at 225 and somehow justify it. Fast forward this 5 years from now when your cost pp is 13.25 plus dues of probably 8.50, and maybe it crosses over into firm insane territory.

Now I can't figure out how to justify VGC's point cost at DLR. That's just nuts to me, but people are paying it.

 

[Bing Showei]

I'm not so sure I would agree with this. I did a lot of DVC buying at the tail end of the Great Recession and the competition just wasn't there.

I’ll concede my aversion to Disney’s ROFR practices may color my perception of real market forces in play during down economies.

So will we see DVC1 resale prices continue to rise with direct pricing? Or will there be enough differentiation with retail points with the changes what we’ve seen in the past?

 

[ELMC]

I'm not going to worry about the math as I'm never going to buy BCV and don't really care, but David's is charging 18 a point for an 11 month BCV reservation, and I've seen confirmed reservations at desirable times go for over 20 a point. Anyone renting their BCV points at 15 to 16 a point is leaving money on the table. More than a few of us feel the 18 David's charges is a little low for some of the resorts (monorail and Epcot resorts)

I'm not starting an argument, but there's just tons of variables that go into these things that it's hard to 100% quantify. Can you find someone to rent the points you need? Can you get the room you want without booking at exactly 11 months out? What's it worth to not go through the hassle of finding someone to rent the points from? Point cost is also only part of it. I prefer to compare accommodation levels. A 2 bedroom villa at BCV during Texas spring break week is 350 points for 2019. Rack rate on that dvc room is 1675 Sun-Thurs and 1800 Fri and Sat night. 2 bedroom club level rooms at BC are 2200+ a night. 350 points at your 17/pp cost is 5950. Renting would cost 6,300 and going through WDW would be almost 12K.

But wait, no one pays full rack rate, there are discounts all the time over the course of the year. More variables to consider, so there's just no real good way to figure it out.

Anyway I'm off track, I don't consider that price level to be "quite insane" just yet looking at everything. It's getting pretty close, but I can totally see where someone who has the disposable income to buy into DVC (350 points would cost about 80 thousand with another 2500+ a year in annual dues) can look at BCV points at 225 and somehow justify it. Fast forward this 5 years from now when your cost pp is 13.25 plus dues of probably 8.50, and maybe it crosses over into firm insane territory.

Now I can't figure out how to justify VGC's point cost at DLR. That's just nuts to me, but people are paying it.

I don't want to argue either, and you make some very good points here. By highlighting the things that you do think are insane makes us agree that the insanity of these prices is sort of a spectrum and it's up to us to place ourselves on it. The interesting thing though is that historically the conversations surrounding DVC have always been how great a value it is. Now we're talking about how out of control the prices have gotten. I think we can both agree on this...there's been a significant shift and not for the better.

 

[rg35]

I wonder what people's breaking point is going to be when it comes to paying for DVC (and Disney vacations in general). They really keep pushing and pushing, and people keep on paying.

 

[ELMC]

I’ll concede my aversion to Disney’s ROFR practices may color my perception of real market forces in play during down economies.

So will we see DVC1 resale prices continue to rise with direct pricing? Or will there be enough differentiation with retail points with the changes what we’ve seen in the past?

Right now the only restriction to DVC1 points is that you can't stay at the Riviera. Stated otherwise, you can't do something that you don't want to do anyway. Not much of a restriction.

To your point, Disney was very active with ROFR during that time and I lost a significant amount of contracts. But they couldn't take all of them, and not once did I bid a penny more for a contract for the false hope that it would help my chances of passing ROFR. While not everyone did this, I know of many others who took the same approach.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I am curious how active DVC will be with ROFR this week. According to my guide, the waitlist have been flooded the last 2 days . I know this won't be a popular opinion but I hope they take as much as is needed to fulfill waitlist requests. I think it's ****ty of them if they don't .

 

[DougEMG]

But here's the thing...I don't think they're taking that big of a hit. Sure, the people on these boards are all over this. But what percentage of DVC buyers do you think we are? I would argue an insignificantly small percentage. The majority of "in the Magic" decision makers buying DVC are not asking about resale. And even if they are, DVD will probably spin this change as being good because you can't get the same thing resale that you can get by buying direct. I think this is a very low risk move by Disney, reaction on this board notwithstanding.

I agree the normal impulse buyer will not realize what they are buying, so this change won't much impact on sales other than a few informed existing owners who now will not be adding on at the new resorts. These owners though will be screwed good though if they ever have to sell their contract.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

They should add 10 years to BCV since they only gave you 40 years when it opened. But I don't expect Disney will give any justice to anyone.

i completely agree with you. i cannot understand how they sold it with only 40 years instead of 50...

 

[freediverdude]

I think DVC is going the way of other timeshares, where they concentrate on direct purchases by giving lots of perks and treating resale buyers like second class citizens (they don't currently, but it looks like that is the plan for the future). I don't think DVC would ever be one of those $1 timeshares, but I don't think people will be willing to pay 75% or so of retail if they can't book the other resorts like it is now. So yes the resale market will be lower eventually.

And they could also contemplate the sleazy "conversion to direct status" upcharges that some other timeshares will do for resale buyers, which typically cost thousands of dollars to convert resold points into points that have the direct perks.

 

[Jack_Sparrow_NJ]

I wonder what people's breaking point is going to be when it comes to paying for DVC (and Disney vacations in general). They really keep pushing and pushing, and people keep on paying.

It's an interesting question. I work at an "attraction" and I am always amazed when we do a price increase. I ask myself who would pay this much for what we offer but yet they do.

 

[ELMC]

I wonder what people's breaking point is going to be when it comes to paying for DVC (and Disney vacations in general). They really keep pushing and pushing, and people keep on paying.

It's an interesting question. I work at an "attraction" and I am always amazed when we do a price increase. I ask myself who would pay this much for what we offer but yet they do.

On a Disney related podcast (I think it was Disney Dish) Len Testa talked about how Disney has a team called something along the lines of the revenue maximization department. They are basically a bunch of actuaries who calculate to the penny how much Disney can raise prices before people balk. It's fascinating.

But it speaks to a bigger issue in this and other threads...the expectation that Disney is some sort of benevolent corporation that is only looking out for its customers. Sadly, in 2019 that is simply not the case. They are looking out for shareholders, first and foremost. Now hopefully within that they will see the value of providing a quality product, offering top-notch customer service, etc. which will clearly benefit us all. But to think that they are not out to make as much money as possible is unfortunately a little naive. The real question is, up until what point can you (generic you) suspend your disbelief and continue to enjoy Disney as a "feel good" company and vacation destination?

To put things into perspective, they're still a "good" company. They're still offering family-friendly entertainment that is top notch, the only thing that has changed is that it's now more apparent that they are trying to do so while squeezing every last nickel out of their customers. But it's not like they're some industrialist corporation poisoning rivers or destroying food supplies or ravaging local communities all in the name of profit.

 

[Bing Showei]

They are looking out for shareholders, first and foremost. Now hopefully within that they will see the value of providing a quality product, offering top-notch customer service, etc. which will clearly benefit us all. But to think that they are not out to make as much money as possible is unfortunately a little naive.

While I agree with this assessment as it pertains to TWDC, I'm not sure this position translates directly to the issue a lot of people are taking with the recent changes implemented by DVCMC. We're not whining about churro prices or gate prices (not here, at least).

I've been accused of having misguided expectations of DVD practices being in direct conflict with DVCMC actions to correct for those practices, as they are two separate legal entities, but if we're to accept that, then the knife cuts both ways. Assuming we accept that DVD can pedal whatever they want to move points and DVCMC comes in to clean up the mess, in that case, DVCMC should be acting in the memberships best interest. A lot of the complaints leveled here have spoken specifically to the benefit to the membership around these changes, the inherent fiduciary responsibilities of DVCMC, and how the clear beneficiary of these changes made by DVCMC is TWDC far more than the membership to whom they are supposed to be representing.

So am I naive for thinking DVD shouldn't be sleazy in their sales knowing that DVCMC will eventually implement policies to correct that (e.g., Bungalows)? Or am I naive for assuming DVCMC should actually honor their fiduciary responsibilities (e.g., recent reallocation)?

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

DH just told me:

"I just read that Mickey is considering charging for entry and exit visas for
DVC club members at check in and check out.
Also, they just updated the disclosure document to say that if you die while staying at a DVC resort, Mickey gets first dibs on your organs."

Lol

 

[skippytx]

I wonder what people's breaking point is going to be when it comes to paying for DVC (and Disney vacations in general). They really keep pushing and pushing, and people keep on paying.

I like to say that we bend when it comes to the cost increases at WDW. Some people have already hit that breaking point, others will pay no matter the cost, I think many people just adjust their vacation a bit. My first trip was fairly recent, March 2015, and even costs in the last almost 4 years have gone up quite a bit. We just bend with the costs really. The biggest thing we've cut back on is Table Service restaurants. I don't feel the value is there for the meals (especially for the kids), and I don't like to have regimented plans when I vacation. We usually stay in a 1 or 2 bedroom so we do eat a fair number of meals in the room. Last trip I think we did 3 TS meals over 8 days.

 

[Wakey]

I like to say that we bend when it comes to the cost increases at WDW. Some people have already hit that breaking point, others will pay no matter the cost, I think many people just adjust their vacation a bit. My first trip was fairly recent, March 2015, and even costs in the last almost 4 years have gone up quite a bit. We just bend with the costs really. The biggest thing we've cut back on is Table Service restaurants. I don't feel the value is there for the meals (especially for the kids), and I don't like to have regimented plans when I vacation. We usually stay in a 1 or 2 bedroom so we do eat a fair number of meals in the room. Last trip I think we did 3 TS meals over 8 days.

You could be describing what we do now as well.

 

[SL6827]

Makes me wonder what or just how Disney will try to increase profit next. Wonder if they would ever move from being shady, to illegal practices. Makes me wonder if they have or will they ever cook the books, especially when it comes to dues and such.

 

[Madame]

Makes me wonder what or just how Disney will try to increase profit next. Wonder if they would ever move from being shady, to illegal practices. Makes me wonder if they have or will they ever cook the books, especially when it comes to dues and such.

They already did at Aulani...

 

[bwvBound]

i completely agree with you. i cannot understand how they sold it with only 40 years instead of 50...

Indeed. We puzzled over the same when noodling a BWV purchase in 2003. We couldn't quite get past paying full fare for a resort that had already "lost" so many years of use. That line of thinking apparently made us a prime target for SSR when it went into pre-opening sales. Ha, ha, ha.

 

[lntx]

Suspect there will be a lot of current owners who were eyeing Riviera now letting those thoughts go.......

Count me as one of them! No way would I consider a direct contract at Riviera now! Which really pisses me off as I was really looking forward to it!