POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[DopeyBadger]

Let's run the numbers on the POT verification with some assumptions.

-I'll do runDisney Disney World races because there are four weekends a year.

-I will assume they won't start verifying POTs until after the deadline because otherwise there is a chance of wasted effort for each person that changes their POT submission after you start verifying early. I don't know the number of runners that change their POT submission between registration and POT deadline, but it's certainly more than zero.

-I will also assume that they need the field solidified for bib purposes at least two weeks prior to the race. This assumption is based on giving out expo passes with bib numbers about 7 days in advance of the race, and for printing bibs, filling boxes for volunteers.

-@accm has a good idea with previously verified POTs attached to a registration, but let's assume runDisney isn't already doing that.

-I'm also using 2 minutes per bib average for manual verification (some will take longer and some shorter). This is based on my experience with trying to find research paper PDFs via search engines when supplied authors, title, etc. for a large 25,000 paper database I maintained years ago.

-To save me some time, I'm using a 20% DNS number from the finishers from the last few years instead of trying to pull together the exact number of bibs assigned.


Wine and Dine 2023
Race - 11/5/23
Two week prior cutoff - 10/22/23
POT Deadline - 8/1/23
# of business days for verification - 59
# of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 40
****
If all HM bibs verified = 13577 finish / 80% start = 16971 bibs
16971 bibs * 2 min per bib = 33942 minutes of work (or 565 hours)
565 hours of work in 40 days (or 14 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 HM bibs verified = 13577 finish / 80% start = 16971 bibs
16971 bibs * 25% of field = 4242 bibs with <2:30 POT
4242 bibs * 2 min per bib = 8485 minutes of work (or 141 hours)
141 hours of work in 40 days (or 3.5 hours of work per day)




Marathon Weekend 2024
Race - 1/6/24
Two week prior cutoff - 12/23/23
POT Deadline - 9/26/23
# of business days for verification - 63
#of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 25

****
If all HM,M,Goofy,Dopey bibs verified = ~19726 finish (no double counts) / 80% start = 24657 bibs
24657 bibs * 2 min per bib = 49325 minutes of work (or 821 hours)
821 hours of work in 25 days (or 33 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 HM bibs verified = ~19726 finish / 80% start = 24657 bibs
24657 bibs * 25% of field = 6164 bibs with <2:30 POT
6164 bibs * 2 min per bib = 12328 minutes of work (or 205 hours)
205 hours of work in 25 days (or 8.2 hours of work per day)




Princess Weekend 2024
Race - 2/25/24
Two week prior cutoff - 2/11/24
POT Deadline - 10/31/23
# of business days for verification - 74
#of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 50

****
If all HM bibs verified = 14549 finish / 80% start = 18186 bibs
18186 bibs * 2 min per bib = 36372 minutes of work (or 606 hours)
606 hours of work in 50 days (or 12 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 HM bibs verified = 14549 finish / 80% start = 18186 bibs
18186 bibs * 25% of field = 4546 bibs with <2:30 POT
4546 bibs * 2 min per bib = 9093 minutes of work (or 151 hours)
151 hours of work in 50 days (or 3 hours of work per day)



Springtime Surprise 2024
Race - 4/21/24
Two week prior cutoff - 4/7/24
POT Deadline - 1/9/24
# of business days for verification - 64
#of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 40

****
If all 10 miler bibs verified = 11740 finish / 80% start = 14712 bibs
14712 bibs * 2 min per bib = 29425 minutes of work (or 490 hours)
490 hours of work in 40 days (or 12 hours of work per day)

****
If only <1:30 10 miler bibs verified = 11740 finish / 80% start = 14712 bibs
14712 bibs * 25% of field = 3678 bibs with <1:30 POT
3678 bibs * 2 min per bib = 7356 minutes of work (or 122 hours)
122 hours of work in 40 days (or 3 hours of work per day)


A year's cumulative for WDW runDisney for POT verification

****
If all bibs verified = 74526 bibs * 2 min per bib = 149052 minutes of work (or 2484 hours)
2484 hours of work in 178 days (or 14 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 equivalent bibs verified = 74526 bibs * 25% of field = 18631 bibs with POT submittable
18631 bibs * 2 min per bib = 37263 minutes of work (or 621 hours)
621 hours of work in 178 days (or 3.5 hours of work per day)

So for just POT verification, we're looking at either 621 hours of work using the <2:30 POT cutoff or 2484 hours of work using all bibs. If you had a team of five people working around the clock, they accrue 200 hours of work per week. That would mean the 2484 hours is approximately 12 weeks worth of work for those five people. If we pay them $15/hr to do this job, that's $37,260 in expenses to verify the POTs. Ultimately, the question for runDisney is, is it worth $37,260 or could that money be better spent elsewhere in expenses? How much does runDisney gain if the races are already selling out super quick? What's the benefit to them as a business beyond post-race satisfaction?

Post-verification, the seeding is super easy. The registration info is likely auto-filling into an Excel spreadsheet (or something similar) that converts the different distances and POTs submitted into a single comparable value using the calculations I've posted before. Then a simple ranked order and you have the bib numbers. The sorting/ranking takes minutes. The verification of POTs is definitely what takes all the time.

I've always contested that runners are likely to lie when asked for estimated finish time. The previous weekend numbers bear that out. But I don't think runners are going to submit false information for a verifiable POT submission at the same rate. And the previous weekend numbers also bear that out. So I've always contested, if I were runDisney, I would move the POT to 3:00 or even higher, and then just do random spot checks. Maybe 5-10% of the field, and I'd focus on the A-B corrals. I'm guessing you'll find some false submitted info, but the number is going to be pretty low.

Lots of assumptions being made here, but what are your thoughts?

 

[Naomeri]

Let's run the numbers on the POT verification with some assumptions.

-I'll do runDisney Disney World races because there are four weekends a year.

-I will assume they won't start verifying POTs until after the deadline because otherwise there is a chance of wasted effort for each person that changes their POT submission after you start verifying early. I don't know the number of runners that change their POT submission between registration and POT deadline, but it's certainly more than zero.

-I will also assume that they need the field solidified for bib purposes at least two weeks prior to the race. This assumption is based on giving out expo passes with bib numbers about 7 days in advance of the race, and for printing bibs, filling boxes for volunteers.

-@accm has a good idea with previously verified POTs attached to a registration, but let's assume runDisney isn't already doing that.

-I'm also using 2 minutes per bib average for manual verification (some will take longer and some shorter). This is based on my experience with trying to find research paper PDFs via search engines when supplied authors, title, etc. for a large 25,000 paper database I maintained years ago.

-To save me some time, I'm using a 20% DNS number from the finishers from the last few years instead of trying to pull together the exact number of bibs assigned.


Wine and Dine 2023
Race - 11/5/23
Two week prior cutoff - 10/22/23
POT Deadline - 8/1/23
# of business days for verification - 59
# of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 40
****
If all HM bibs verified = 13577 finish / 80% start = 16971 bibs
16971 bibs * 2 min per bib = 33942 minutes of work (or 565 hours)
565 hours of work in 40 days (or 14 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 HM bibs verified = 13577 finish / 80% start = 16971 bibs
16971 bibs * 25% of field = 4242 bibs with <2:30 POT
4242 bibs * 2 min per bib = 8485 minutes of work (or 141 hours)
141 hours of work in 40 days (or 3.5 hours of work per day)




Marathon Weekend 2024
Race - 1/6/24
Two week prior cutoff - 12/23/23
POT Deadline - 9/26/23
# of business days for verification - 63
#of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 25

****
If all HM,M,Goofy,Dopey bibs verified = ~19726 finish (no double counts) / 80% start = 24657 bibs
24657 bibs * 2 min per bib = 49325 minutes of work (or 821 hours)
821 hours of work in 25 days (or 33 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 HM bibs verified = ~19726 finish / 80% start = 24657 bibs
24657 bibs * 25% of field = 6164 bibs with <2:30 POT
6164 bibs * 2 min per bib = 12328 minutes of work (or 205 hours)
205 hours of work in 25 days (or 8.2 hours of work per day)




Princess Weekend 2024
Race - 2/25/24
Two week prior cutoff - 2/11/24
POT Deadline - 10/31/23
# of business days for verification - 74
#of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 50

****
If all HM bibs verified = 14549 finish / 80% start = 18186 bibs
18186 bibs * 2 min per bib = 36372 minutes of work (or 606 hours)
606 hours of work in 50 days (or 12 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 HM bibs verified = 14549 finish / 80% start = 18186 bibs
18186 bibs * 25% of field = 4546 bibs with <2:30 POT
4546 bibs * 2 min per bib = 9093 minutes of work (or 151 hours)
151 hours of work in 50 days (or 3 hours of work per day)



Springtime Surprise 2024
Race - 4/21/24
Two week prior cutoff - 4/7/24
POT Deadline - 1/9/24
# of business days for verification - 64
#of business days w/ no overlap with another weekend - 40

****
If all 10 miler bibs verified = 11740 finish / 80% start = 14712 bibs
14712 bibs * 2 min per bib = 29425 minutes of work (or 490 hours)
490 hours of work in 40 days (or 12 hours of work per day)

****
If only <1:30 10 miler bibs verified = 11740 finish / 80% start = 14712 bibs
14712 bibs * 25% of field = 3678 bibs with <1:30 POT
3678 bibs * 2 min per bib = 7356 minutes of work (or 122 hours)
122 hours of work in 40 days (or 3 hours of work per day)


A year's cumulative for WDW runDisney for POT verification

****
If all bibs verified = 74526 bibs * 2 min per bib = 149052 minutes of work (or 2484 hours)
2484 hours of work in 178 days (or 14 hours of work per day)

****
If only <2:30 equivalent bibs verified = 74526 bibs * 25% of field = 18631 bibs with POT submittable
18631 bibs * 2 min per bib = 37263 minutes of work (or 621 hours)
621 hours of work in 178 days (or 3.5 hours of work per day)

So for just POT verification, we're looking at either 621 hours of work using the <2:30 POT cutoff or 2484 hours of work using all bibs. If you had a team of five people working around the clock, they accrue 200 hours of work per week. That would mean the 2484 hours is approximately 12 weeks worth of work for those five people. If we pay them $15/hr to do this job, that's $37,260 in expenses to verify the POTs. Ultimately, the question for runDisney is, is it worth $37,260 or could that money be better spent elsewhere in expenses? How much does runDisney gain if the races are already selling out super quick? What's the benefit to them as a business beyond post-race satisfaction?

Post-verification, the seeding is super easy. The registration info is likely auto-filling into an Excel spreadsheet (or something similar) that converts the different distances and POTs submitted into a single comparable value using the calculations I've posted before. Then a simple ranked order and you have the bib numbers. The sorting/ranking takes minutes. The verification of POTs is definitely what takes all the time.

I've always contested that runners are likely to lie when asked for estimated finish time. The previous weekend numbers bear that out. But I don't think runners are going to submit false information for a verifiable POT submission at the same rate. And the previous weekend numbers also bear that out. So I've always contested, if I were runDisney, I would move the POT to 3:00 or even higher, and then just do random spot checks. Maybe 5-10% of the field, and I'd focus on the A-B corrals. I'm guessing you'll find some false submitted info, but the number is going to be pretty low.

Lots of assumptions being made here, but what are your thoughts?

One thing to consider if we’re thinking of needing POT for everyone: runDisney is a gateway race for a lot of people, or the only racing they do, so how do newcomers handle the POT? It wouldn’t really be fair to shove them into a single non-POT corral at the back just because they’re new.

 

[DopeyBadger]

One thing to consider if we’re thinking of needing POT for everyone: runDisney is a gateway race for a lot of people, or the only racing they do, so how do newcomers handle the POT? It wouldn’t really be fair to shove them into a single non-POT corral at the back just because they’re new.

I get that. There will always be marginal cases no matter how you design it. To accommodate those that have signed up for a half marathon, that have yet to achieve any race whatsoever, I would suggest doing one in-between registration and the deadline. That's usually 5-6 months time given the sellouts we recently have been seeing. If you're doing a half, then you'll minimally need a 10k. If you want to not be in the last corral, then even doing a 10k as a training run in the months proceeding the POT is certainly possible just to get something on the books. Some people may even know now months before registration that they plan to sign up for a runDisney race occurring later this year or early 2025. So start training for a 10k now. So for almost all, it's a choice in the 5-6 months time not to do one for those that race exclusively at runDisney as a brand new runner.

 

[Herding_Cats]

One thing to consider if we’re thinking of needing POT for everyone: runDisney is a gateway race for a lot of people, or the only racing they do, so how do newcomers handle the POT? It wouldn’t really be fair to shove them into a single non-POT corral at the back just because they’re new.

This is true, but since they only use POT for the HM, and M, the number of people who have *never* run a race of any kind before would be pretty low (and although not a Disney race, I was the person whose first race was a HM, so I get it.)

 

[DisneyParrothead]

One thing to consider if we’re thinking of needing POT for everyone: runDisney is a gateway race for a lot of people, or the only racing they do, so how do newcomers handle the POT? It wouldn’t really be fair to shove them into a single non-POT corral at the back just because they’re new.

If someone wants it that badly, they can get a POT. When I signed up for my first half, which was at Disney, I’d only done a couple 5k’s and at that point 10k’s weren’t that common. But I found one and got my POT to submit.

 

[WillRunForPizza]

Interesting comparison! So...what if they added POT for the 10K, equivalent to the current M/HM cutoffs?

I don't know the number of runners that change their POT submission between registration and POT deadline, but it's certainly more than zero.

Me! I'm that person. I've updated my POT for all three of the race weekends I've signed up for.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Interesting comparison! So...what if they added POT for the 10K, equivalent to the current M/HM cutoffs?

Wine and Dine 2023
About 12000 10k finishers
About 7000 Challenge finishers already POT verified
All - 5000 bibs / 0.8 = 6250 bibs, 12500 min, 208hrs
2:30 equivalent - 1562 bibs, 3125 min, 52hrs


Marathon Weekend 2024
About 11571 10k finishers
About 6400 Dopey finishers already POT verified
All - 5000 bibs / 0.8 = 6250 bibs, 12500 min, 208hrs
2:30 equivalent - 1562 bibs, 3125 min, 52hrs


Princess Weekend 2024
About 11738 10k finishers
About 6750 Challenge finishers already POT verified
All - 5000 bibs / 0.8 = 6250 bibs, 12500 min, 208hrs
2:30 equivalent - 1562 bibs, 3125 min, 52hrs


Springtime Surprise 2024
About 9800 10k finishers
About 5000 Challenge finishers already POT verified
All - 5000 bibs / 0.8 = 6250 bibs, 12500 min, 208hrs
2:30 equivalent - 1562 bibs, 3125 min, 52hrs

Looks to be about 52hrs of work per weekend for the POT level, or 208hrs of work per weekend for all 10k bibs (outside challenges). So about 1/4 to 1/3 the amount of work they're already doing for the other races in those weekends. Additional $750 per weekend in payroll for POT level, and $3120 per weekend for all 10k bibs.

 

[Kerry1957]

I don't think rD should require a POT from everyone for the reasons given above. Just increase the number of POT corrals to HM 3:00 or even 3:30.

3:30 is just over 16 minutes aa mile so there is no reason to request anything longer than that. Folks without a POT can estimate a time, but they will be in the last 2 or 3 corrals after the POT corrals.

 

[accm]

What do other races do about corral placement? Do you need to submit POT? Or is runDisney different in that people want additional time on the course to take pictures/ride rides, and therefore more likely to lie about their expected pace?


The only other race I've done was small enough that there were no corrals.

 

[WillRunForPizza]

What do other races do about corral placement? Do you need to submit POT? Or is runDisney different in that people want additional time on the course to take pictures/ride rides, and therefore more likely to lie about their expected pace?

In my experience, it very much depends on the race. Some are entirely on the honor system with no pre-set corrals, some have no guidelines at all for how people should line up, and some are similar to rD in that they are fairly strict in seeding and ask for a POT. I think many that do seed runners still go off your estimating pace/finishing time even without a POT - there's less incentive to lie if you're not at Disney

 

[camaker]

What do other races do about corral placement? Do you need to submit POT? Or is runDisney different in that people want additional time on the course to take pictures/ride rides, and therefore more likely to lie about their expected pace?


The only other race I've done was small enough that there were no corrals.

The only race I've run outside RunDisney with corrals has been Chicago. I submitted a PoT, but don't remember if it was required for everyone or not. Our big local race here, City of Oaks, doesn't have corrals an releases the marathon, half and 10k all at once. Last year that was a mass start of ~4,200 runners without corrals or waves.

 

[pluto377]

What do other races do about corral placement? Do you need to submit POT? Or is runDisney different in that people want additional time on the course to take pictures/ride rides, and therefore more likely to lie about their expected pace?


The only other race I've done was small enough that there were no corrals.

I've run a local 10K a couple of times that doesn't do POT, but seeds you according to your predicted finish time. I'm sure people lie or are overly optimistic, but I've never seen the amount of crowding and craziness that I see at Disney. Granted, this race is a max of 5,000 entrants and it's a hard course so it doesn't really attract novices/walkers.

I think one thing that makes Disney unique is the amount of people that stop during the race and the amount of time they are stopped for. This ends up mixing up the field much more than you would see at a "normal race". Usually even if people have overestimated their pace or whatever things shake out within the first mile and then there's little to no issues after that. But at Disney, with people constantly stopping and starting it really makes a mess of things.

I think requiring POT out to 3:00 and then putting those that can't provide it in the last corral is a fair way to do it. As others have said, if it's your very first race you need to make a decision, start in the back or find a race near you. And as @DopeyBadger said, they probably wouldn't have to check all of them. Just the threat of being put in the back if caught lying is enough for most people not to lie about it.

 

[fatmanatee]

What do other races do about corral placement? Do you need to submit POT? Or is runDisney different in that people want additional time on the course to take pictures/ride rides, and therefore more likely to lie about their expected pace?


The only other race I've done was small enough that there were no corrals.

NYRR sets corrals based on your best prior result, I think it's kept for a few years and eventually there's a reset. That goes for every race I do with them. Get a new best POT, it automatically updates. For those who haven't done any NYRR races, I think it depends. For the marathon and likely other major races, they definitely accept POTs from elsewhere, not sure how they handle people who DON'T have POTs but I'd guess they start near the back.

 

[Kerry1957]

The Big10K race in Chicago is Disney sized. They have corrals on the honor system, except for the Elites.
As was mentioned, there is little incentive to lie at most non-Disney races.

 

[GollyGadget]

What do other races do about corral placement? Do you need to submit POT? Or is runDisney different in that people want additional time on the course to take pictures/ride rides, and therefore more likely to lie about their expected pace?


The only other race I've done was small enough that there were no corrals.

I have run several races with and without corrals. None of these required PoT. The honor system has worked for them. There may be a few that overestimate their ability but nothing like at Disney. Actually, I usually find the opposite takes place and no one wants to line up at the front.

 

[flav]

I have done about a dozen different races without multiple corrals and people would try to seed themselves by looking at the pacers. They were bottlenecks sometimes.

I have done a handful of races with multiple corrals (start every x minutes) asking for a finish time estimate and whether this was your first (for marathon). I think most people provide honest estimates at time of registration, but someone goals and performance might evolve over the course of a year. I usually put a bit faster than my current fitness with the hope that I will improve and the knowledge that I can move backwards otherwise. I do not remember NYRR asking for POT for the NYC Marathon.

The Ottawa multiple races challenges are interesting in that they give a wildcard for coral placements. That is a very valid approach because these challenge participants are usually seasoned runners and most don’t have a full weekend pace plan so far in advance.

 

[fatmanatee]

Trying to look into the non-POT instructions for NYC and not finding much! I’ll have to see if anything pops up when I register.

 

[The Expert]

iirc RnR Vegas asked for estimates and POT was optional. There were waves (2 or 3 I think) with corrals within each. Corrals and waves were assigned appropriately -- wave was the color of your bib, then corral letters on the bibs, but then nobody checked the bibs when you lined up. Most people knew this and crowded toward the front of the wave. My first time was CHAOS. I actually had a 10K POT to get into Wave 2, Corral B for the Half, but I started mid-C because that's as far up as I could get. The next two times I did it, I just hung back and started when the crowd began to thin.

 

[disneyrunnergrl]

iirc RnR Vegas asked for estimates and POT was optional. There were waves (2 or 3 I think) with corrals within each. Corrals and waves were assigned appropriately -- wave was the color of your bib, then corral letters on the bibs, but then nobody checked the bibs when you lined up. Most people knew this and crowded toward the front of the wave. My first time was CHAOS. I actually had a 10K POT to get into Wave 2, Corral B for the Half, but I started mid-C because that's as far up as I could get. The next two times I did it, I just hung back and started when the crowd began to thin.

Last year they were checking bibs but it was still chaos. They tried to have everyone funnel through a blow up tunnel that was way too small for the amount of people participating. Later corrals lined up, even though they couldn’t get through bc security was checking bibs, and blocked the tunnel entrance so you couldn’t even get through when called. When we finally got to the start area, maybe .25-.5 miles away, they were just letting everyone go because so few people got through the tunnel at a time.

 

[fatmanatee]

iirc RnR Vegas asked for estimates and POT was optional. There were waves (2 or 3 I think) with corrals within each. Corrals and waves were assigned appropriately -- wave was the color of your bib, then corral letters on the bibs, but then nobody checked the bibs when you lined up. Most people knew this and crowded toward the front of the wave. My first time was CHAOS. I actually had a 10K POT to get into Wave 2, Corral B for the Half, but I started mid-C because that's as far up as I could get. The next two times I did it, I just hung back and started when the crowd began to thin.

So... funny thing about this: doing this race later this month! And I actually got an email recently asking to confirm my estimated time. Race starts at 4:30 pm, and this is notably an opportunity to run the strip at night, so I actually moved my time *back* a few minutes. It's probably a better estimate of how I'll do, in line with how I've done in some races, and this isn't a serious race for me, so I'd like to get more time when it's dark if possible. Ends up being kind of an inverse of the RD problem IMO. So I'm a bit surprised to hear that people are rushing to get started, I guess other people feel differently.