POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[2girlsR2good]

As I am housebound for the next few weeks, I'm deciding to work on some speed training. I have solid endurance, love running the Disney challenges--W&D this year will be my 3rd. and have the long slow run down--I usually do 8-12 on the weekends. My fastest 10K is 1:15:51. Fastest half is 2:54. I've lost weight since then and been training. and I was training to have a POT to submit for Wine and Dine with some confidence, but the new times really threw me. When I read:

A run of 30 min or less is typically seen as a recovery run. It offers very little actual gains benefits. I believe easy runs at their maximum are in the 60-90 min range. Once you hit 90-120 min, then there's an increase in the bodies response. Then 120-150 min is top-end of endurance for a continuous runner without starting to outweigh the risks against the benefits.

That really hit home. I do too many really short runs during the week (typically 3) and the long run at the weekend at a 14mm pace, which puts me at that 120-150. It's time to mix it up (I started running ahead of my 50th birthday and ran the Disney Marathon on the actual day of.)

I've found a plan on the Runner's World website and I have a track I can get to once a week (it's too far away to go more often) https://www.runnersworld.com/advanced/a20825846/the-best-10k-workout/

Suggestions welcome! Thanks to @DopeyBadger for the analysis and data that helped me get inspired!

 

[DopeyBadger]

My fastest 10K is 1:15:51. Fastest half is 2:54.

This is the race equivalency for the 1:15:51 10k:



Since your actual HM time is 2:54 vs the projected 2:47 HM, it suggests you're closer to where your 10k would say you would be. So this type of data set says exactly what you said, you now need more speed to increase your cap further. Granted long distance racing is almost exclusively aerobic in nature, but your top end speed is usually a pretty good indicator to what you can do in longer distance races.

That really hit home. I do too many really short runs during the week (typically 3) and the long run at the weekend at a 14mm pace, which puts me at that 120-150. It's time to mix it up (I started running ahead of my 50th birthday and ran the Disney Marathon on the actual day of.)

So that style of training can certainly work, but typically it means you're always training for the weekend. By spreading out the training a bit more throughout the week enables the body to make adaptations more frequently.

I've found a plan on the Runner's World website and I have a track I can get to once a week (it's too far away to go more often) https://www.runnersworld.com/advanced/a20825846/the-best-10k-workout/

To take it one step further (and I think McMillan would agree with me) that time at pace matters. Because me running 3 x 2 miles at 10k pace means 3 x 13 min w/ 3-4 min RI. For you, that would be 3 x 24.5 min w/ 3-4 min RI. I definitely think there's a difference between how are two bodies would perceive these workouts. My run:rest ratio is going to be 3 min run to 1 min rest, whereas yours would be 8 min run to 1 min rest. So my preferred methodology is to use workouts based on time rather than distance. And if you look at the paces that McMillan suggests, the additional information shows his typical run:rest ratios and duration caps on different types of workouts.

One of my favorite set of workouts is based on Lactate Threshold pace. Your's is estimated at a 12:04 min/mile. Then you can do long distance intervals like you were thinking, but instead of miles do time:

6 x 5 min at LT w/ 1 min RI
3 x 10 min at LT w/ 2 min RI
8 x 5 min at LT w/ 1 min RI
4 x 10 min at LT w/ 2 min RI
2 x 15 min at LT w/ 3 min RI
10 x 5 min at LT w/ 1 min RI
5 x 10 min at LT w/ 2 min RI
3 x 15 min at LT w/ 3 min RI
2 x 20 min at LT w/ 4 min RI

RI = resting interval at which you can either walk or run slowly.

When training for a specific distance (like 10k), then doing a periodization training that becomes more specific makes you better at that specific race distance. So say the goal is a 10k race. Then the beginning of training might be at 3k/5k paces and marathon paces. Then as time moves on in training you move towards LT pacing and HM Tempo pacing (closing in on both the bottom and top end towards the goal distance pacing). And then the last few workouts are 10k specific. This type of specialization of training will make you better at your goal distance.

Additionally, I do lots of speed work, but I don't use a track. I just use a nice flat stretch of road. Of course, not everyone has that option, but if you do then don't discount the possibility of doing normal speed work just out on the roads if safe.

 

[Disneyhanna]

Alright, so I have received confirmation from Track Shack on the new POT cutoffs for the HM. They have also confirmed this will be the new standard moving forward for all HMs not just Wine and Dine 2020. They didn't mention anything about the M POT because I didn't ask them about it.

View attachment 480138

The new cutoffs for a 2:30 HM are:

10k - 1:08
12k - 1:23
15k - 1:45
10mi - 1:54
M - 5:27 (although I didn't list this one in the graph)

As is the standard addendum with this chart above, these are best guess extrapolations based on math and are by no means official. They're a good measure to judge by though for corral placement.

Both the choice of 10 miler cutoff and M cutoff show a distinct advantage to submitting a time from either of those categories instead of the 10k, 12k, or 15k time.

View attachment 480139

The chart above is a reverse calculation of the classic Riegel formula. My goal was to determine the R-value being used for each of the distances. In the past, I've estimated the Riegel R-value to be 1.055 for the HM POT conversions. The 10k, 12k, and 15k values are very close to that and well within rounding margins. But the 10 miler and M are distinctly different. For instance in a 10 miler, the normal 1.060 R-value like the 10k uses would say you would need a 1:52:35 10 miler for a 2:30 HM equivalent. But using the 1.014 value means a 1:54:00 converts to a 2:30 HM. So the 10 miler and M conversions are more generous. This was true with the old set of data, but not by as much.

I'm a little late but thank you so much for this update! I ran the TC 10 Mile as my first "real" race in October and was planning to run it again this fall as a POT for the WDW HM. Unfortunately they moved the POT submission deadline up a week to the end of September so no go for that. My 10 mile time was 14 seconds too slow for C corral based on the old cutoffs, so I was planning to run a 10k instead. But now that races are being cancelled left and right, I was starting to get a little worried that I would not have enough time to get my 10k time especially since I'm relatively inexperienced and it might take me more than one try. (Not to mention running a lot less miles due to having so much snow and ice here in MN up until the last week.)

But now my 10 mile time is within the C HM corral with almost a minute to spare, that takes a load off my shoulders! Again, thank you!

 

[DopeyBadger]

But now my 10 mile time is within the C HM corral with almost a minute to spare, that takes a load off my shoulders! Again, thank you!

Just remember that the closer your time gets to the estimated cutoff the less sure I am of it. 1 minute is pretty close to the 10 mile cutoff. The difference between a few decimals points on the calculation. I'd suggest emailing Trackshack and asking them what your exact 10 mile time converts to for a HM. Don't necessarily ask what your corral would be, because they're unlikely to say anything about that specifically. If you do, please let us know what they say as it will be useful information.

 

[Disneyhanna]

Just remember that the closer your time gets to the estimated cutoff the less sure I am of it. 1 minute is pretty close to the 10 mile cutoff. The difference between a few decimals points on the calculation. I'd suggest emailing Trackshack and asking them what your exact 10 mile time converts to for a HM. Don't necessarily ask what your corral would be, because they're unlikely to say anything about that specifically. If you do, please let us know what they say as it will be useful information.

I will reach out and report back! Are you more "sure" of the HM cutoffs? I'll still try and get a few 10ks in to be safe, sub 60 is the goal right now!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I will reach out and report back! Are you more "sure" of the HM cutoffs? I'll still try and get a few 10ks in to be safe, sub 60 is the goal right now!

It's hard to be definitive on anything because runDisney changed the POT cutoffs from 2:45 down to 2:30. But, since the estimated finish HM values are in the same 4 buckets (2:30-2:45, 2:46-3:00, etc.) as the ones I have in green, then I feel relatively confident they represent 4 different corrals. So I feel as confident as someone can at this point that the yellow values (for example, 2:00:01-2:15:00 for Corral C) are correct. Those are less so math and are defined by what runDisney has been using as the HM Corral cutoffs for the last few years. Additionally, I don't think runDisney has any intention of doing cutoffs based on the field and evening out corral numbers (like they used to with say 2000 runners in Corral C and thus the cutoff was a more unpredictable number like 2:12:00). They like their new corral system with less corrals, no set number of runners per corral, and mini-waves.

 

[2girlsR2good]

Oh my gosh-- @DopeyBadger you are amazing. I have your post printed out, highlighted, and annotated. These charts are dead on for what I'm currently able to do. My last one mile test run was 10:17 and it was at a my hard run, have to walk after pace. I already work from home, but now I have 3 other people here with me all day doing school/work from home. Since we're related, I have to be nice to them.... this plan is going to keep me sane. I showed my kids my "online learning" and they laughed and went back to their precalc.

Thank you again! I'll report in...anyone else doing something similar and want to support each other? I have a Garmin, and I'm going to go make a Strava account now.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Oh my gosh-- @DopeyBadger you are amazing. I have your post printed out, highlighted, and annotated. These charts are dead on for what I'm currently able to do. My last one mile test run was 10:17 and it was at a my hard run, have to walk after pace. I already work from home, but now I have 3 other people here with me all day doing school/work from home. Since we're related, I have to be nice to them.... this plan is going to keep me sane. I showed my kids my "online learning" and they laughed and went back to their precalc.

Thank you again! I'll report in...anyone else doing something similar and want to support each other? I have a Garmin, and I'm going to go make a Strava account now.

Happy to help. If you need any other pace/distance type of weekly progression (like the LT above), then just let me know.

 

[TeeKo]

I highly suggest finding a training plan that works for your life and available time, and is progressive in nature towards your "A" race. That will yield the optimal outcome. So look for a structured training plan to help you determine how much and what type of training. Something like Hal Higdon is a place that HM runners naturally transition to from a 3-day a week Galloway runDisney plan.

I find myself with extra time at the moment and a treadmill. So I dropped my speed (11 minute/mile) and increased my duration from 30 to 60 minutes and increased from 3 to 4 days running per week.
Um, I find it harder than I thought. My legs hurt a little.

Questions:
Push through the inevitable discomfort of doing more or I’m doing too much too soon?

Planning for a HM in November (not F&W) How many weeks in advance should I start training specifically for the race win front of me?

As always, thank you for taking the time!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I find myself with extra time at the moment and a treadmill. So I dropped my speed (11 minute/mile) and increased my duration from 30 to 60 minutes and increased from 3 to 4 days running per week.
Um, I find it harder than I thought. My legs hurt a little.

Questions:
Push through the inevitable discomfort of doing more or I’m doing too much too soon?

Probably too much too soon. You want to find a training plan that bridges the gap between where you are and where you want to be. But immediately jumping from 3 x 30 min per week (90-120 min total) to 4 x 60 min per week (240-270 min total) is not advisable.

Planning for a HM in November (not F&W) How many weeks in advance should I start training specifically for the race win front of me?

It depends on what you do leading into that training plan. But for the purposes of specificity, something on the order of 10-16 weeks. The body takes about 6 weeks to fully absorb the training, it takes about 8 weeks to peak in cardiovascular gains, and about 12 weeks to peak in skeletal muscular gains. So keeping time frames in mind when choosing the length of training is important.

You're aiming for a HM in November which is about 34 weeks away. So you could break that into two 17 week training cycles, or three cycles of 10/12/12, or plenty of other variations.

Just perusing Hal Higdon's free plans, this seems like a reasonable fit:

https://www.halhigdon.com/training-programs/more-training/winter-training/


Except I'd change the Wednesday to a walk, cross, or nothing. The easy would be 11:20-12:10 min/mile. Higdon describes his Tempo (Thurs) in the following manner:

Do a warm-up of a mile (11.5 minutes)
Slowly increase the pace from an 11:30 min/mile towards a 9:15 min/mile
Do a cool-down of a mile (11.5 minutes)

So a 30 min tempo would be:

11.5 min easy
1 min at 10:30, 1 min at 10:00, 1 min at 9:30, 4 min at 9:15
11.5 min easy

a 40 min tempo would be like:

15 min easy
2 min at 10:30, 2 min at 10:00, 2 min at 9:30, 4 min at 9:15
15 min easy

This plan will keep it predominately easy, add a 4th running day gradually, add in some pace work on Thursdays, and open you up to some cross training on Wed/Sun. Also, consider repeating the first week a few times just to get used to running 4 days per week before the training load starts to ramp up even more.

As for soreness, you want what is called a "medium level of fatigue" or "cumulative fatigue". You don't feel fresh everyday, but how you feel does not hamper your ability to complete the scheduled run. I found over the years that running more often actually made running feel easier. As with many things about running it seems counterintuitive, but it does work. But you have to gradually add in the extra stimulus, otherwise your body can't adapt to the training and gets stuck in always trying to solely recover from it.

 

[TeeKo]

DopeyBadger
Thank you so much! I have printed out the recommendations and have modified them to my work schedule. I am excited to give it a try. I am a later in life runner with my first HM at age 39. I've been winging it on the training but after I stumbled upon your posts, I started to want more strategy to my training. Thank you so much for taking the time to help me. I appreciate it!

 

[ScooterScott44]

View attachment 481646

Was looking at a few of the recent messages on this thread and had a question. @DopeyBadger how confident are you with these cutoffs? And do you think that a 10k time will work for marathon/goofy time next year? I was looking to keep my A corral streak in place but did not have a good longer race this year. I did squeeze in a 10 K that was respectable (not great) for my age and is under the A corral limit.

 

[camaker]

Was looking at a few of the recent messages on this thread and had a question. @DopeyBadger how confident are you with these cutoffs? And do you think that a 10k time will work for marathon/goofy time next year? I was looking to keep my A corral streak in place but did not have a good longer race this year. I did squeeze in a 10 K that was respectable (not great) for my age and is under the A corral limit.

10k times have never been submittable for Marathon/Goofy proofs of time. A 10 miler is the shortest accepted distance for proof of time for those races.

 

[DopeyBadger]

@DopeyBadger how confident are you with these cutoffs?

Reasonably confident. I did not adjust the marathon cutoffs from 2020 weekend and didn't receive much info from anyone justifying any big swings. So, I'd say a sub 1:44 HM to feel somewhat confident about a corral A placement.

I concur with @camaker that a 10k time won't work for a marathon POT.

 

[ScooterScott44]

10k times have never been submittable for Marathon/Goofy proofs of time. A 10 miler is the shortest accepted distance for proof of time for those races.

With the cancellation and postponement of many spring races, the question is if there might be an exception this year. Since it would be relatively easy to add the columns from one table to the other it is something that is possible. If that is done would there be any further adjustment to the times? The different race predictions get less precise when using shorter distances so that could be a factor.

There is nothing that expressly states a 10k will not work for the marathon or goofy. The earlier pacing statement does exist for a half vs full (2:45 vs 5:30) and it lumps the challenges in with the full for that pacing requirement. Below is the statement of what is acceptable from the Website-

 

[camaker]

With the cancellation and postponement of many spring races, the question is if there might be an exception this year. Since it would be relatively easy to add the columns from one table to the other it is something that is possible. If that is done would there be any further adjustment to the times? The different race predictions get less precise when using shorter distances so that could be a factor.

There is nothing that expressly states a 10k will not work for the marathon or goofy. The earlier pacing statement does exist for a half vs full (2:45 vs 5:30) and it lumps the challenges in with the full for that pacing requirement. Below is the statement of what is acceptable from the Website-
View attachment 483288

you are incorrect. The PoT guidelines clearly state that a 10k will not work. I would not expect them to issue any exceptions, either.

 

[ScooterScott44]

I agree with you and have followed the statement as you quoted for the last 16 years or more (old age is getting to me). What guess I am failing to communicate is that in the race policies section the specific statements about the difference between the half and full marathons is missing. So that could give the race organization some flexibility. I’m not saying it will but with races like Boston and Big Sur moved or gone from peoples calendars many spring goal races will not be there and that could be impactful.

Here is the whole section I am referring to and you can see that even in Disney’s own information the potential for a loop hole.

“Proof of Time Guidelines

If you believe you will finish the Half Marathon in 2 hours and 45 minutes (2:45) or less or the Marathon in 5 hours and 30 minutes (5:30) or less, proof of time is required for start corral placement. If you believe you will finish the half marathon in over 2:45 or the Marathon in over 5:30, proof of time is not required. Corral placement is based on your anticipated finish time and corral capacities. Goofy's Race and a Half Challenge and Dopey Challenge participants should adhere to Full Marathon proof of time requirements. Proof of time is not required for the 5K and 10K races. Please reference the Pacing Requirements in the Events Section for finish times and associated pacing per mile for the Half Marathon or Marathon.

We do not accept relays, self-timed, training, trail runs or virtual runs as proof of time. Proof of time must be provided by the participant for each individual race from an officially timed 10K, 12K, 15K, 10-Mile, Half Marathon or Marathon race reflecting results within the last 2 years.

Past runDisney races may be used as proof of time, however you will need to submit them with your race registration. Runners will be placed in the last corral if the required proof of time is not submitted. If you submit a proof of time from a race distance other than a Half Marathon or Marathon, an industry standard calculation will be applied to equate your finish time.

A valid proof of time provided at the time of registration must include the following: Name of Race, Distance, City, State, Date, Finish time, Link to Results.

If proof of time is not provided by the Proof of Time deadline (see Event Section Proof of Time Guidelines), or if the data provided is incomplete or cannot be verified, you will be placed in the last start corral. No corral changes will be made after such date.

For any questions regarding proof of time, please email disneysports@trackshack.com”

 

[DopeyBadger]

With the cancellation and postponement of many spring races, the question is if there might be an exception this year.

Ah, I see now. So in light of the cancellations of spring races because of the extraordinary circumstances happening right now, will runDisney allow a 10k race to be used for marathon POT?

My guess would be no. Since all races are cancelled, then 10ks, 10 milers, HMs, and Ms are all equally cancelled this Spring. But, with that being said, I think what runDisney could consider instead is allowing a 3 year window on POT instead of the 2 year window. What this does is somewhat nullify the effect of the cancellation of races (opportunities for POT) from this past Spring. But this is just a guess, and I've got no precedent to base this on.

 

[camaker]

I agree with you and have followed the statement as you quoted for the last 16 years or more (old age is getting to me). What guess I am failing to communicate is that in the race policies section the specific statements about the difference between the half and full marathons is missing. So that could give the race organization some flexibility. I’m not saying it will but with races like Boston and Big Sur moved or gone from peoples calendars many spring goal races will not be there and that could be impactful.

Here is the whole section I am referring to and you can see that even in Disney’s own information the potential for a loop hole.

“Proof of Time Guidelines

If you believe you will finish the Half Marathon in 2 hours and 45 minutes (2:45) or less or the Marathon in 5 hours and 30 minutes (5:30) or less, proof of time is required for start corral placement. If you believe you will finish the half marathon in over 2:45 or the Marathon in over 5:30, proof of time is not required. Corral placement is based on your anticipated finish time and corral capacities. Goofy's Race and a Half Challenge and Dopey Challenge participants should adhere to Full Marathon proof of time requirements. Proof of time is not required for the 5K and 10K races. Please reference the Pacing Requirements in the Events Section for finish times and associated pacing per mile for the Half Marathon or Marathon.

We do not accept relays, self-timed, training, trail runs or virtual runs as proof of time. Proof of time must be provided by the participant for each individual race from an officially timed 10K, 12K, 15K, 10-Mile, Half Marathon or Marathon race reflecting results within the last 2 years.

Past runDisney races may be used as proof of time, however you will need to submit them with your race registration. Runners will be placed in the last corral if the required proof of time is not submitted. If you submit a proof of time from a race distance other than a Half Marathon or Marathon, an industry standard calculation will be applied to equate your finish time.

A valid proof of time provided at the time of registration must include the following: Name of Race, Distance, City, State, Date, Finish time, Link to Results.

If proof of time is not provided by the Proof of Time deadline (see Event Section Proof of Time Guidelines), or if the data provided is incomplete or cannot be verified, you will be placed in the last start corral. No corral changes will be made after such date.

For any questions regarding proof of time, please email disneysports@trackshack.com”

I gave you a screenshot of the specific proof of time guidelines in the event tab for the marathon. There’s no room for misinterpretation there, regardless of what you may have found on a less specific section within the site.

RunDisney is looking for evidence that you can run a marathon within the expected time guidelines. A 10k is not sufficient proof of that. I don’t see what the rationale for making exceptions would be. All races are shut down right now, not just the longer distances needed for marathon and Goofy/Dopey PoTs. Everyone is going to be in the same boat of needing to use older races for PoT, but that shouldn’t impact the distance requirements. Running a fast 10k is very different than running a fast marathon. No one can say whether RunDisney will or won’t make an exception, but I find it highly unlikely.

 

[steph0808]

10ks are not acceptable POTs for the marathon - anymore. When I ran the 2013 marathon, I did submit a 10k as a proof of time. However, the rules have changed since then.

I don't think they will go back to allowing 10k as a marathon POT. They want to know your pace at a longer distance to accurately place you in a corral.