Am I understanding it correctly that in signing up for Dopey you only enter one POT? So either a half marathon or a full? And then they use the formula in the OP to assign the other corral? So, for example if you entered a sub-4hr marathon you would be in corral A for the full and the half, even if you don't have a sub 1:53:45 POT for the half? Sorry if this is super obvious and I'm just being dumb.
In case someone else has a similar question, the below are three scenarios. The information in this post is based on what runDisney has done in the recent past and doesn't mean 100% they will continue to use the same system.
Sally, Jane, and Tonya are all signing up for the Dopey Challenge. They will refer to the table at the top of the image labeled "WDW M, Goofy, Dopey Corrals". They all have a single HM and M that is submittable based on the guidelines of race weekend.
Sally
Sally's HM POT is 1:55:00. If she submits her 1:55:00, then she will be seeded in Corral B.
Sally's M POT is 3:59:00. If she submits her 3:59:00, then she will be seeded in Corral A.
Sally should submit the 3:59:00 because according to runDisney's race equivalency calculation it is the better performance of the two and thus she will be more likely to be seeded higher.
Jane
Jane's HM POT is 2:00:00. If she submits her 2:00:00, then she will be seeded in Corral B.
Jane's M POT is 4:35:00. If she submits her 4:35:00, then she will be seeded in Corral C.
Jane should submit the 2:00:00 because according to runDisney's race equivalency calculation it is the better performance of the two and thus she will be more likely to be seeded higher.
Tonya
Tonya's HM POT is 1:35:00. If she submits her 1:35:00, then she will be seeded in Corral A.
Tonya's M POT is 3:15:00. If she submits her 3:15:00, then she will be seeded in Corral A.
Tonya Could submit either the 1:35 or 3:15 and both will seed her into Corral A. However, Tonya could use the M conversion calculation (seen at the bottom of the image) of T2=T1*(D2/D1)^1.079 to determine which of the two is a better performance for the purpose of vanity of a lower bib number because runDisney ranks each individuals POT against each other after conversion to a single value.
T2= 1:35 * (26.22/13.11) ^ 1.079
T2= 1:35 * (2) ^ 1.079
T2= 1:35 * 2.11
T2= 3:20:42
So if we convert the 1:35 HM POT into a race equivalent M performance, then we get a 3:20:42. A 3:20 is slower than a 3:15, thus Tonya should submit the 3:15 M POT purely for a vanity purpose. One could argue that if Tonya had two competing times within Corral B (like 2:00 HM and 4:08 M) she should do the same calculation as above on the off chance runDisney changes their POT system and uses faster cutoffs.
@DopeyBadger i may have missed it, but you are speculating about C being a POT corral, right? We don’t know for sure if that’s going to the the case, or is that a “before-times” thing they used to do?
Yes, I am speculating that Corral C will be the same time pod as previously (first non-POT of 4:30-5:00) except now it will require a POT. I'm also speculating that they'll move Platinum Club runDisney back to Corral C, which would represent the slowest POT, unless an individual runner has a POT that qualifies them for higher seeding.
In 2014-2017, runDisney used 16 corrals and the POT cutoff was 5:30-6:30 based on the year. The focus was a near even distribution of runners within each corral. So the cutoffs were hard to predict, but pods of 500-2000 runners per corral were used. There were many issues with this system and they moved away from it.
In 2018-2020, runDisney used 8 corrals and the POT cutoff was 5:30. They poded each 30 min segment into their own pod ignoring the number of people assigned to an individual corral and used mini-waves to spread things out. In my opinion, this system solved many of their issues in 2014-2017 and I suspect runDisney would agree.
In 2021-2024, runDisney used 5-6 corrals and the POT cutoff was 4:30-5:00. They combined the 3:40 and sub 4 corrals into a single, and it appears they typically combined the 6:00-6:30 and 6:30-7:00. Based on the number of runners in sub 3:40 and sub 4, this move made sense (5% and 5%), and the combination of 6:00-7:00 does make a much larger corral but mini-waves mostly mitigate those issues.
Based on past weekends, POT submissions of sub 4 will have 10-12% of the field, submissions of 4:00-4:30 will have 10-12% of the field, and submissions of 4:30-5:00 will have 10-12% of the field. Based on this, I anticipate with a high degree of confidence that runDisney will continue to use the system they have since 2018 and pod the POTs in 30 min blocks. I don't see a benefit in this system to having the corrals be A (sub 4) and 10-12% of field and B (sub 5) with 20-25% of the field. Nor do I see a benefit to A (sub 4:15) 15-18% of the field and B (sub 5) 15-18% of the field. Doesn't mean runDisney won't do it that way, but based on past behavior I anticipate the breakdown like I posted in the OP. With that being said, runDisney has surprised me before.