Poly Tower Speculation

[DVCsloth]

To play the other side of the coin, I’d say it’s a poor financial decision to buy DVC, a timeshare, caring about what a potential resale value could or should be…

I agree, we've spent a lot of money to save money on our Disney vacations.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm not sure of the reason that Disney would put the new tower in the same association. It seems to me there are already more than enough studios available in the MK area especially since they added VGF2. The Bungalows always seem to have availability and the Polynesian studios usually have availability at 7 months. This would not be a good selling point for the new towers, if you were interested in a poly studio, just buy resale. Maybe there are other factors that I'm not considering? I would be interested in the Poly Tower but not if it's the same association because I believe reservations will be tight and if its open to all current poly points it will be way worse.

This is where I am at, I am just not sure how it increases direct sales or what other goals could possibly be in play that would make them believe it’s better to have it as a new phase to PVB vs, it’s 18th resort.

As I said, the announcement of FW to open at the same time puzzles me and it seems like opening two different project with different features…one with restrictions and one without,..within the same calendar year adds to confusion and IMO, devalues the argument that restrictions are the way of the future.

While I still believe it’s going to be new, I am not at 99% like I was before.

 

[Sandisw]

Let me add another thought I just had…given that one thought was the DVD may have regretted announcing so early BPK would be added to VGF.

When they did that. It sparked VGF resale prices to rise, with people choosing to buy,.but then when they put it for sale, and priced it well, people flocked to direct anyway.

Now, you have PVB pricing much lower…so, why would DVD not want to announce it’s the same, spark some resale sales for the sole purpose of driving PVB prices back up, so that when they come out with direct pricing, the difference is like it was with BPK, and people will choose direct because it’s much closer.

Just not sure how waiting, if it will be the same, helps DVD because if it ends up part of PVB, no matter when announced, wouldn’t those people who will go resale still go resale?

 

[tom1944]

To play the other side of the coin, I’d say it’s a poor financial decision to buy DVC, a timeshare, caring about what a potential resale value could or should be…

I meant it is a poor financial decision to not understand the terms of the product and what those terms mean.

 

[KimMcGowan]

I believe that Polynesian (PVB) was originally supposed to happen in two parts. (I am almost certain that I read that somewhere.). IF so, that could very well be the reason that they make it part of the original association.

 

[DVCsloth]

I noticed one thing that adding VGF2 to the current association has done is make the Deluxe Studios at VGF more difficult to book at certain times. The week we usually travel was not available right at 11 months. We're staying at a different resort this year and we usually book 1br's so it didn't affect us this year. Once they sell out BPK, I feel the original Villa's will be even more difficult to book.

 

[Sandisw]

I meant it is a poor financial decision to not understand the terms of the product and what those terms mean.

Got it,…but I still don’t think resale value should be considered at all…so whether buyers know about it or not is not really relevant IMO

Buying should be about what you are getting and your intended use…if what you are getting meets your needs, then it’s a good decision. If it doesn’t, then it is not.

It’s why I said that restrictions are just that…restrictions…I don’t see them as good or bad….

 

[ehh]

Ohhhh…y’all are going to think I am crazy (what’s new). After all the talk about restrictions, I was thinking about a picture I saw on a different Poly thread about family studios.
View attachment 781257
Do you think it is possible that Disney is pulling a bit of a fast one on us? We look at this view and think the building is heavy on bigger rooms. BUT… what if the other side of the building, the one with the scenic view of the parking lot (and golf course) is mainly studios? It would kinda make sense - all the higher point priced rooms with the better view and the studios get the pedestrian view. Sure, there could be some bigger rooms on that side too.

Ah, that's mine! The other side of the building is also heavy on 2-bays. Recent, good photos are just harder to come by

Of course, any 2-bay can be split in two 1-bays.

EDIT: as an example, based on the artist renderings I think there' a good change the pink 4-bays in the middle will end up being four 1-bay rooms (i.e., some type of Studios).

 

[ehh]

Question about what they're allowed to do to the existing PVB rooms, maybe @Sandisw can answer.

Are they allowed to modify the existing Poly1 rooms or inventory at all if they will be in the same association? As an example, could they convert some Deluxe Studios to Resort Studios? Or use the development budget for Poly2 to refurb Poly1 rooms?

 

[TinkB278]

If restrictions is the sole reason, why did it outperform VGF than for those 4 months? Obviously, VGF could not compete until it was less expensive, outside of the initial surge. And let’s not pretend that VGF is selling well….by all previous standards. It’s also doing poorly.

You can’t look at % when one resort has to sell more than 3xs as many points. 10% of 2 million is 200,000 and 10% of 6.7 million is 670,000. So, even if RIV was selling more points every month, it’s % is going to be lower. RIV would have to sell almost 500k more points than VGF just to sell the same % of its total.

Of course VGF has sold a higher % of its total.

If VGF was a more popular choice, DVD would not have had to lower the price. To be clear, I am not saying that RIV is setting records, it is not…but, it’s sales prior to the pandemic were really strong and its not too far off of VGF sales right now.

Basically, if you take one year away from RIV for the pandemic and it’s impact, both resorts have about a 1 million a year average…

So no, the restrictions alone have not had a major impact on sales. You simply can’t ignore that for 4 of the 10 months VGF was for sale in of 2022, RIV sold more …sometimes twice as much…which means restrcitons didn’t stifle sales.

Thanks for addressing this. I was also thinking that looking at %s was not painting the picture the OP thought it was painting.

 

[tom1944]

Got it,…but I still don’t think resale value should be considered at all…so whether buyers know about it or not is not really relevant IMO

Buying should be about what you are getting and your intended use…if what you are getting meets your needs, then it’s a good decision. If it doesn’t, then it is not.

It’s why I said that restrictions are just that…restrictions…I don’t see them as good or bad….

When I was looking the only consideration, I gave to resale was that a market existed. I placed no value on what my contract might be worth in the future.

 

[Sandisw]

Question about what they're allowed to do to the existing PVB rooms, maybe @Sandisw can answer.

Are they allowed to modify the existing Poly1 rooms or inventory at all if they will be in the same association? As an example, could they convert some Deluxe Studios to Resort Studios? Or use the development budget for Poly2 to refurb Poly1 rooms?

At this point, I do not believe they can change the current PVB deluxe studio rooms to resort studios because all of them are declared and currently designated in the contract as such.

I also don’t believe they can use money outside of the current capital reserves budget to change the make up of the current set up.

So, my interpretation would be no to both. Now, for something like RIV which has not had all rooms declared into the association, they might have the ability to change things….since technically, until declared,, they don’t count and never have to be even added..

 

[GoingSince1990]

I’m leaning towards the same association, simply because PVB1 is the most weirdly unbalanced DVC in existence, with only the studios and bungalows, and the new tower with its 1 and 2 BRs and GVs will balance the whole resort off nicely.

 

[Sandisw]

Another thing we can all keep an eye out in the next 4 months is the 2025 point charts! If the tower will be part of PVB then those charts could very well include those new rooms since the tower would be open by then.

 

[tidefan]

I noticed one thing that adding VGF2 to the current association has done is make the Deluxe Studios at VGF more difficult to book at certain times. The week we usually travel was not available right at 11 months. We're staying at a different resort this year and we usually book 1br's so it didn't affect us this year. Once they sell out BPK, I feel the original Villa's will be even more difficult to book.

100% this.

I have noticed that Deluxe Studios have been going right at 11 months. As these are our preferred accommodation (and what we bought back in 2014), it’s a bummer how availability is going. Of course, we were “assured” by people on threads a couple years ago that everyone would flock to the new hotel rooms…

IMHO, the VGF rollout as the same association was a decision that very much negatively impacted many current owners and has given me pause for DVC in the future.

 

[DVCsloth]

100% this.

I have noticed that Deluxe Studios have been going right at 11 months. As these are our preferred accommodation (and what we bought back in 2014), it’s a bummer how availability is going. Of course, we were “assured” by people on threads a couple years ago that everyone would flock to the new hotel rooms…

IMHO, the VGF rollout as the same association was a decision that very much negatively impacted many current owners and has given me pause for DVC in the future.

I think it negatively impacted it as well. It dropped VGF from my favorite to 3rd out of the 3 resorts we own. We still love it and its still my Wife's favorite. I also think that Disney knew they needed to keep it the same association because they were only adding studios "hotel rooms". Luckily, we mostly stay in 1br's and so far, it hasn't seemed to affect us yet. Fingers crossed. I still have a bitter taste from them not bringing back the GF Orchestra, doesn't seem the same without them. We would listen to them after our dining reservation with a cup of coffee or a drink. I do think that the BPK rooms are good for some people with the 2 real beds, but we prefer VGF1.

 

[MyDogTink]

I’m leaning towards the same association, simply because PVB1 is the most weirdly unbalanced DVC in existence, with only the studios and bungalows, and the new tower with its 1 and 2 BRs and GVs will balance the whole resort off nicely.

Do you think they unbalanced VGF by adding only studios?

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I believe that Polynesian (PVB) was originally supposed to happen in two parts. (I am almost certain that I read that somewhere.). IF so, that could very well be the reason that they make it part of the original association.

TikiMan (from the now defunct ***********.com) predicted the following back when Poly1 was being built:

"WL – room conversions & new cabins
YC – room conversions
CBR - new buildings and a new waterway connecting it to Epcot by boat
FW
PVB (phase 2)"

He had some great inside info and pretty much nailed it with the exception of VGF2 replacing YC (still got the room conversion correct) and the Epcot waterway.

 

[ehh]

At this point, I do not believe they can change the current PVB deluxe studio rooms to resort studios because all of them are declared and currently designated in the contract as such.

I also don’t believe they can use money outside of the current capital reserves budget to change the make up of the current set up.

So, my interpretation would be no to both. Now, for something like RIV which has not had all rooms declared into the association, they might have the ability to change things….since technically, until declared,, they don’t count and never have to be even added..

Thank you.

Follow-up question: can they swap the location of rooms?

Example, take 70 Deluxe Studios and convert them to Resort Studios and build 70 Deluxe Studios (e.g., as part of 2BRLOs) in the new Tower?

Reason I ask: last night I noticed a major inventory disruption at the Poly Studios in summer 2024. Over 20% of the many SV Studios and over 10% of LV Studios are not bookable for an extended period of time. It's too soon for a scheduled refurb (last refurb was 2021) and the offline volumes are too high for cash bookings (if they want to rent any at other times of the year, at least), so I'm at a bit of a loss.

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you.

Follow-up question: can they swap the location of rooms?

Example, take 70 Deluxe Studios and convert them to Resort Studios and build 70 Deluxe Studios (e.g., as part of 2BRLOs) in the new Tower?

Reason I ask: last night I noticed a major inventory disruption at the Poly Studios in summer 2024. Over 20% of the many SV Studios and over 10% of LV Studios are not bookable for an extended period of time. It's too soon for a scheduled refurb (last refurb was 2021) and the offline volumes are too high for cash bookings (if they want to rent any at other times of the year, at least), so I'm at a bit of a loss.

I am not sure they can do that either. The way units are declared, it would change the make up of those in the legal filings.

They can legally add more phases to the resort which is what happened with BPK and what this would be if added to PVB.

I think that attempting to change the make up of the long houses would create an issue.

But are the rooms you are seeing gone within the 11 month window? Maybe there are just owners? Or simple something that will correct itself.