Poly Resale owner, talk me out of Riviera Direct

[tidefan]

Week 9 Resort Studio. I expect that will cover my U-M "spring" break most years through retirement, and that's a time of year I imagine I will enjoy even after that. It's part of a small hole between P-Week and the onset of the real spring break rush. Weather is usually great there and terrible here!

And, that's another example of this:

It's not during Fall Frenzy. It's not likely to go up in point value during a re-balancing---if anything, it is likely to go down. It's a "dumb" choice for a fixed week. I probably won't need it most years unless the Doomsday predictions of RIV availability come to pass.

But it was the one I wanted!

It did not hurt that I also wanted a Feb UY, and I was buying in mid-January. About a month before the upcoming price increase, and with two weeks left in my 2024 UY.

The heart wants what the heart wants...

Congrats!

 

[Brian Noble]

In the words of TUG's ScoopKona:

It's a TOY. You are buying a TOY. Treat it like a TOY.

 

[tx911]

In the words of TUG's ScoopKona:

It's a TOY. You are buying a TOY. Treat it like a TOY.

Said in a “Woody” voice?

 

[Brian Noble]

Probably not. He's not a Disney Guy.

 

[CarolynFH]

Probably not. He's not a Disney Guy.

And I do indeed agree with you!

 

[havoc315]

We currently own 270 PVB resale points across 4 contracts. We're ready to buy more points and are thinking we do 150 direct now to get the benefits, mainly staying at all resorts and a cheaper annual pass. The question is, do we get more PVB or jump into Riviera? We absolutely love the Riviera, it's 100% our style. In fact, that's the main reason we're kicking around going direct.

The resale restrictions are what are holding me back. On one hand, if I have to sell some of my points it would not be my direct points just so I could remain blue card. On the other, if I ever sell ALL of my points then the Riv contract will be a lot harder to move.

Assuming we don't sell ALL of our points, Riviera seems like the way to go. We already have 270 at Poly, so adding 150 at the Riv would get us a second home resort and those points work everywhere. Am I missing anything?

I bought direct at Riveria in 2020. I just added another 175 points re-sale, knowing most of my stays will be at Riviera and I still have direct points for sleeping around some stays.

You cannot buy direct overthinking future re-sale value. Because:
1-- Value will be far more dependent based on when you sell. For example, which will have better resale value in 2041 -- Riviera or Beach Club? I am 100% confident that 29 years of resale Riviera will have a much higher re-sale price than 1 year of Beach Club
2-- Restricted points are the future regardless -- Again, goes to timing -- In 2045, likely more than half the resorts will be "restricted." Likely EVERY Epcot area resorts will be restricted. Really think nobody will buy any Epcot resorts because they are all restricted? And "unrestricted" points will only be good at half the resorts.
3-- Even if restricted points have lower resale value, is the gap really big enough to warrant changing your enjoyment of those points for the years until you sell?
Over the last year, Riviera resale prices have been around $125 per point. Looking at other long contrast resorts with unrestricted points -- BLT is in the mid $130's, Copper Creek has hovered around $140. So Riviera has been worth about 5-10% less than similar unrestricted resorts -- And this gap will likely close when Riviera sells out and becomes subject to ROFR.
So say you want to own those points for the next 20 years before re-selling --- Is it worth reducing 20 years of enjoyment just to get 5% more in re-sale 20 years from now?


If you like Riviera and are buying direct, there is no reason not to buy Riviera. Worrying that re-sale value may be a few pennies less in 20 years is truly unknowable and not something that should drive a decision.

 

[Chili327]

I bought direct at Riveria in 2020. I just added another 175 points re-sale, knowing most of my stays will be at Riviera and I still have direct points for sleeping around some stays.

You cannot buy direct overthinking future re-sale value. Because:
1-- Value will be far more dependent based on when you sell. For example, which will have better resale value in 2041 -- Riviera or Beach Club? I am 100% confident that 29 years of resale Riviera will have a much higher re-sale price than 1 year of Beach Club
2-- Restricted points are the future regardless -- Again, goes to timing -- In 2045, likely more than half the resorts will be "restricted." Likely EVERY Epcot area resorts will be restricted. Really think nobody will buy any Epcot resorts because they are all restricted? And "unrestricted" points will only be good at half the resorts.
3-- Even if restricted points have lower resale value, is the gap really big enough to warrant changing your enjoyment of those points for the years until you sell?
Over the last year, Riviera resale prices have been around $125 per point. Looking at other long contrast resorts with unrestricted points -- BLT is in the mid $130's, Copper Creek has hovered around $140. So Riviera has been worth about 5-10% less than similar unrestricted resorts -- And this gap will likely close when Riviera sells out and becomes subject to ROFR.
So say you want to own those points for the next 20 years before re-selling --- Is it worth reducing 20 years of enjoyment just to get 5% more in re-sale 20 years from now?


If you like Riviera and are buying direct, there is no reason not to buy Riviera. Worrying that re-sale value may be a few pennies less in 20 years is truly unknowable and not something that should drive a decision.

Definitely. We tend to get caught up in value more than reality sometimes. lol

 

[marmentrout85]

I've really enjoyed reading this whole thread and there are so many great points here as we're now heavily considering going direct, just not sure whether or not to go with Poly or RIV. We only own resale currently (150 BCV, 100 VGF, 50 RIV). Sounds like I need to make a thread titled "Current RIV resale owner, talk me out of Poly Direct" lol.

 

[Tatebeck]

I've really enjoyed reading this whole thread and there are so many great points here as we're now heavily considering going direct, just not sure whether or not to go with Poly or RIV. We only own resale currently (150 BCV, 100 VGF, 50 RIV). Sounds like I need to make a thread titled "Current RIV resale owner, talk me out of Poly Direct" lol.

I think I would go for RIV if I was in your spot. But in the end it really depends on what you like. Do you really like like RIV? Or the Epcot/HW Studios area? I am assuming for now that you do, so since you have some restricted resale points at RIV already. And it is the only current or (currently confirmed resort) in active sales in the Crescent Lake area.

Direct RIV pairs well with some Resale RIV points. This lets you use resale + some direct for any RIV specific trips to use up the resale points. Then the remaining direct points can be used at RIV or other resorts at 7 months if you wish.

It also depends on if you think you may add more points in the future to the other resort or future resorts. If you think you may eventually end up buying more RIV points as well as buying Poly at some point, it makes more sense to me to have Direct RIV and Resale Poly rather than the reverse. The points are more flexible that way.

 

[marmentrout85]

I think I would go for RIV if I was in your spot. But in the end it really depends on what you like. Do you really like like RIV? Or the Epcot/HW Studios area? I am assuming for now that you do, so since you have some restricted resale points at RIV already. And it is the only current or (currently confirmed resort) in active sales in the Crescent Lake area.

Direct RIV pairs well with some Resale RIV points. This lets you use resale + some direct for any RIV specific trips to use up the resale points. Then the remaining direct points can be used at RIV or other resorts at 7 months if you wish.

It also depends on if you think you may add more points in the future to the other resort or future resorts. If you think you may eventually end up buying more RIV points as well as buying Poly at some point, it makes more sense to me to have Direct RIV and Resale Poly rather than the reverse. The points are more flexible that way.

Can't argue with that reasoning and thanks for the input! This is basically where we're at: trying to decide what's more important, having more points at RIV or adding a 4th home resort to get the 11 month booking advantage (and at another MK resort too since we're a bit Epcot-heavy right now) and I think the answer is both lol.

I do prefer the Epcot area over MK and I'd rank BWV, BCV, and RIV as my top 3 resorts. That being said, another MK resort sort of "feels" more useful since we like to usually do split stays.

I know there's no true right or wrong answer to this but my head is also telling me we could do both things at once if we went Poly direct i.e. more points we could use at RIV AND adding another home resort in one fell swoop.

Now, I'm also totally aware that Poly direct seems MUCH more unnecessary (in comparison to resale) than RIV direct would be, so I'm basically just left with arguing with myself on all these points knowing that there are valid rebuttals no matter which way you slice it lol.

 

[Tatebeck]

Can't argue with that reasoning and thanks for the input! This is basically where we're at: trying to decide what's more important, having more points at RIV or adding a 4th home resort to get the 11 month booking advantage (and at another MK resort too since we're a bit Epcot-heavy right now) and I think the answer is both lol.

I do prefer the Epcot area over MK and I'd rank BWV, BCV, and RIV as my top 3 resorts. That being said, another MK resort sort of "feels" more useful since we like to usually do split stays.

I know there's no true right or wrong answer to this but my head is also telling me we could do both things at once if we went Poly direct i.e. more points we could use at RIV AND adding another home resort in one fell swoop.

Now, I'm also totally aware that Poly direct seems MUCH more unnecessary (in comparison to resale) than RIV direct would be, so I'm basically just left with arguing with myself on all these points knowing that there are valid rebuttals no matter which way you slice it lol.

The 7 month options for RIV and Poly depend on a couple things.

Do you normally stay in studios or larger villas?

If you usually stay in studios, Poly may not be that difficult to get into with RIV points at 7 months as long as you are okay with staying in the older villas. They have a ton of studios and most people will want to stay in the Tower (or need to if they want the larger rooms)

And then if you are counting on the resort/standard view category at RIV for the substantial point savings, those are often gone by 7 months. That is where I find the best value lies at RIV.

So there are wrinkles to think about either way when buying direct and using the points at the other resort.

 

[marmentrout85]

The 7 month options for RIV and Poly depend on a couple things.

Do you normally stay in studios or larger villas?

If you usually stay in studios, Poly may not be that difficult to get into with RIV points at 7 months as long as you are okay with staying in the older villas. They have a ton of studios and most people will want to stay in the Tower (or need to if they want the larger rooms)

And then if you are counting on the resort/standard view category at RIV for the substantial point savings, those are often gone by 7 months. That is where I find the best value lies at RIV.

So there are wrinkles to think about either way when buying direct and using the points at the other resort.

SO many wrinkles, indeed! Yeah for Poly we'd specifically want to book the Tower Studios over the longhouses. On the flip side at RIV we'd be hoping to get Resort/Standard View 1BR at 7months, which seems to be getting more difficult as time goes by but not impossible.

 

[Tatebeck]

SO many wrinkles, indeed! Yeah for Poly we'd specifically want to book the Tower Studios over the longhouses. On the flip side at RIV we'd be hoping to get Resort/Standard View 1BR at 7months, which seems to be getting more difficult as time goes by but not impossible.

Sounds like you may be in for both eventually!

That may be the only way to consistently get resort view at RIV and Poly tower both

 

[Chili327]

I've really enjoyed reading this whole thread and there are so many great points here as we're now heavily considering going direct, just not sure whether or not to go with Poly or RIV. We only own resale currently (150 BCV, 100 VGF, 50 RIV). Sounds like I need to make a thread titled "Current RIV resale owner, talk me out of Poly Direct" lol.

Yep, id say either Poly Direct as a 4th home, or RIV Direct, & sell your current resale RIV (50).

 

[Tatebeck]

Yep, id say either Poly Direct as a 4th home, or RIV Direct, & sell your current resale RIV (50).

What is selling a resale? Seems to be heading in the wrong direction... I typically only buy myself

 

[Chili327]

What is selling a resale? Seems to be heading in the wrong direction... I typically only buy myself

One Of Us, One Of Us!

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Been eyeing RIV. If they ever do a sale like they offered for VGF in the summer of 23, i will jump in to RIV, if not resale RIV for me. Congrats on those who purchased.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

The restrictions only matter because they cause a price drop if and when you ever sell the contract.

Poly and Aulani are the only current unrestricted resorts for sale. And Aulani takes such a hit even without the restrictions it doesn't really count either. So you would be waiting on a price drop on Poly, which doesn't seem likely at this point. They were pushing the market in multiple ways to raise the price and have offered very few incentives.

Every future resort we know of Disney currently plans to have the restrictions, so you may be waiting forever, unless Poly has an unexpected firesale or they have a surprise deal for a sold out resort.

One of the reasons we ended up buying 200 riviera points is even with the resale prices being a lot lower, the difference between resale and direct for other properties were of equal differences or 20 points less. And they all expired sooner. So small loss in potential value and we get more years so value will likely hold up more

 

[Tatebeck]

One of the reasons we ended up buying 200 riviera points is even with the resale prices being a lot lower, the difference between resale and direct for other properties were of equal differences or 20 points less. And they all expired sooner. So small loss in potential value and we get more years so value will likely hold up more

Yep. I think when choosing a direct resort to purchase, the restrictions on the newer resorts are overblown. Over the long term I don't think it will matter much unless someone has to sell immediately after buying a restricted resort direct (which shouldn't really be happening if you do the research and are prepared going in)

Come 2042 when a lot of the original resorts expire, and with all of the new resorts they will have built by then, the vast majority of the resale contracts out there will likely be for restricted resorts. So resale will just fall more into line with the buy where you want to stay mantra instead of buying SAP or SAP+ for the best value.

Unless of course Disney changes how they do restrictions, but it can be very difficult foreseeing what Disney does in the future.

 

[Chili327]

Come 2042 when a lot of the original resorts expire, and with all of the new resorts they will have built by then, the vast majority of the resale contracts out there will likely be for restricted resorts. So resale will just fall more into line with the buy where you want to stay mantra instead of buying SAP or SAP+ for the best value.

Unless of course Disney changes how they do restrictions, but it can be very difficult foreseeing what Disney does in the future.

Do you really think it’ll be much different in 2043?
I always feel like it’s not that big of a deal because all of the 2042 points won’t be in the system anymore, but I guess if there is 7 more restricted resorts added it may be a bigger issue than I think. lol