Poly - hmmm

[WilsonFlyer]

Brilliant analysis. Cynical, yet it seems totally correct. Hadn't considered this perspective, but how could anyone fault this logic? This post should be required reading for everybody considering buying PVB points.

Yep. Exactly. He's saying what we have been saying for a while now. The more that read his synopsis, the better.

 

[Goofy DVC]

People (some extremely insistent) said the same thing about BLT and VGF.

No question that for the first few years it will be difficult. But remember that the large majority of DVC members aren't the frequent readers or contributors to Disboards.

This large number of folks don't necessarily operate in the most cost-efficient manner with their points. Which is fine- those are their points after all- but thinking all or most of the new Poly members will consistently book their home resort prior to seven months won't be an accurate assumption. Some of them will decide to go on a cruise. Some of them will go to AKV because their kid wants to see the giraffes, or go to Aulani, or Disneyland, or RCI, etcetera.

There will be availability at seven months. How much remains to be seen. Like the other resorts, count on the standard views to book first and be tough to get. But I have no hesitation saying that I will be staying more than once at PVB without owning a single point there.

Well said This has been our experience through the years. We've had no problem booking BLT or VGF. I am also betting that we will also have little issue getting into PVB at 7 months also.

 

[jerseyduke]

I do not know if it is cynical or shrewd. It is wise in terms of making money.

Why else would they put up 20 of those things? That is an absurd number of the most point expensive villas in the system. There is no other way to view it.

Disney is selling the equivalent of almost 500 studios while only "building" 360.

If I buy Poly (which is a big if) I would buy a fixed week without question.

 

[jerseyduke]

This large number of folks don't necessarily operate in the most cost-efficient manner with their points. Which is fine- those are their points after all- but thinking all or most of the new Poly members will consistently book their home resort prior to seven months won't be an accurate assumption. Some of them will decide to go on a cruise. Some of them will go to AKV because their kid wants to see the giraffes, or go to Aulani, or Disneyland, or RCI, etcetera.

When this occurs, the room that was "forfeited" does not go into DVC inventory, it goes to cash inventory so DVC can pay Disney Cruise lines for the cruise.

 

[disneynutz]

Thoughts from an insider is the DVC Poly project is that it is aimed at Poly faithful's who want to become DVC owners and stay at the Poly, not something for existing owners.

The studios are an upgrade from the existing Poly rooms and connecting rooms are great for larger groups.

The bungalows aren't even considered as something that most members would want but for the folks with big bucks, convention attendees, and businesses, there is a definite market.

DVC expects to sell up to 25% as fixed weeks.

Time will tell.

Bill

 

[quinnc19]

I agree but feel it may have a variable impact. Some may be discouraged from buying, some encouraged due to perceived difficulty in booking at 7 months. I'm tending toward the latter.

Yep. Exactly. He's saying what we have been saying for a while now. The more that read his synopsis, the better.

 

[jerseyduke]

Thoughts from an insider is the DVC Poly project is that it is aimed at Poly faithful's who want to become DVC owners and stay at the Poly, not something for existing owners.

The studios are an upgrade from the existing Poly rooms and connecting rooms are great for larger groups.

The bungalows aren't even considered as something that most members would want but for the folks with big bucks, convention attendees, and businesses, there is a definite market.

DVC expects to sell up to 25% as fixed weeks.

Time will tell.

Bill

Funny, they had better SELL fixed weeks. My guide did not even mention them to me at VGF, and I was wet behind the ears. If I did it all again, I would have purchased a fixed week there, but i did not know better.

VGF almost requires fixed week, and what did they sell? It was a low number I think. I do not know how they will sell 25% as fixed weeks.

Funny thing is Poly is my favorite resort and I am passing on the DVC there.

If 7 months is had to get, then I will hit the resale market.

 

[sndral]

Number of studios per resort:
VGF - 47
VWL - 65
BCV - 110
BLT - 133
OKW - 230
BWV - 246
AKV - 286*
PVB - 360**
SSR - 432

*AKV could be 296, the resource sticky confused me a bit.
** Does this number include phases 1&2?

 

[ATCMickey]

Apologize for somewhat off topic, but please educate me...

Are the Poly DVC studio units located in totally new buildings or are they renovated buildings that were formally hotel rooms?

Thanks for any insight anyone can provide

 

[Msmithmd]

Apologize for somewhat off topic, but please educate me... Are the Poly DVC studio units located in totally new buildings or are they renovated buildings that were formally hotel rooms? Thanks for any insight anyone can provide

Renovated buildings. But they were stripped down to the walls. Everything inside is new. But yes, not truly the same as new construction. Which of course didn't make Disney pause in starting out the resort as the highest priced initial offering in DVC history.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Funny, they had better SELL fixed weeks. My guide did not even mention them to me at VGF, and I was wet behind the ears. If I did it all again, I would have purchased a fixed week there, but i did not know better.

Supposedly, I was my guide's first fixed week sale. There were several phone calls during the sales process because my guide had to inquire about the answers to the questions I was asking.

Interestingly, my guide did not seem to support my fixed week sale. My guide encouraged a regular point purchase and did not anticipate any booking issues

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

DVC expects to sell up to 25% as fixed weeks.

Time will tell.

Bill

They really expect to sell 25% of the Bungalow weeks? What are they smoking in those meetings? I apparently need to attend different conventions but I wonder about that since Poly doesn't even have a convention center. I think they will have to have a dedicated staff marketing just the Bungalow fixed weeks to attain those numbers.

 

[ATCMickey]

Msmithmd...thanks for the response

The reason for my question was a curiosity whether a pre-existing structure dictated that all of the rooms needed to be studios, or whether a new building, or existing stripped building, could have been constructed with a reasonable number of 1 bedroom units.

Did the physical structure of the pre-existing building preclude the ability to offer any 1 bdrm units? I'm sure that they would have been equally absurdly priced, but the lack of a middle ground between a studio, and a 2 bdrm over-water, seems to miss a huge key demographic.

Renovated buildings. But they were stripped down to the walls. Everything inside is new. But yes, not truly the same as new construction. Which of course didn't make Disney pause in starting out the resort as the highest priced initial offering in DVC history.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Msmithmd...thanks for the response

The reason for my question was a curiosity whether a pre-existing structure dictated that all of the rooms needed to be studios, or whether a new building, or existing stripped building, could have been constructed with a reasonable number of 1 bedroom units.

Did the physical structure of the pre-existing building preclude the ability to offer any 1 bdrm units? I'm sure that they would have been equally absurdly priced, but the lack of a middle ground between a studio, and a 2 bdrm over-water, seems to miss a huge key demographic.

Since they were able to make connecting studios, add bathroom fixtures and add kitchenettes there doesn't seem to have been anything prohibiting them from converting rooms into 1BR's or 2BR's ala AKV - Jambo house.

Profit was probably the only deterrent.

 

[ATCMickey]

Since they were able to make connecting studios, add bathroom fixtures and add kitchenettes there doesn't seem to have been anything prohibiting them from converting rooms into 1BR's or 2BR's ala AKV - Jambo house.

Agree

Profit was probably the only deterrent.

Still trying to figure this out. I believe there's a considerable demographic that will not consider a purchase due to the lack of a kitchen. Granted, the 2 bedroom over-water has a kitchen, but is it removed from consideration, by most, for other reasons (e.g. cost). Provided the points required per square foot of unit is held comparable, I don't see how a studio becomes more profitable...but maybe there's a more cynical motive as has been suggested elsewhere.

 

[nd43]

I think I will be in the small minority opinion here but I think Poly could potentially screw up the balance of DVC for 1 bedrooms in the future and have interesting and unique resale dynamics.

Here is my logic.

Most of the points at poly will be sold to new members just like every other DVC project. Probably by 2016 it will be the only DVC being promoted to new members as VGF will be sold out or close.

As new members, I think many will feel studios will work. After all, it is nicer then the standard hotel rooms. However, those members, like most members, will eventually try 1 bedrooms at other resorts especially given the point cost is similar. They will discover, IMO, there is a big difference between a 1 bedroom and a studio for many families. As new members, this will be "discovered" knowledge. However, unlike any other DVC in the past, they cannot simply buy more points to stay in 1 bedrooms at poly. They either have to trade out or sell their points to keep using 1 bedrooms.

If there is not an equal number of people looking to downsize to a studio at poly from other resorts that are used to using 1 bedrooms the system becomes unbalanced because they have effectively released 4 million points into the system that does not offer a like for like trade.

I am guessing when poly sells out the demand for 1 bedrooms for popular resorts at 7 months will get a lot higher. I am guessing the demand for studios at poly will not match the number of points flowing out of poly for all the new members eventually seeking more space.

If this gets frustrating for them, I see a higher then usual supply of resales on
poly that might differ from prior resort experiences. This is caused by two factors. Lower future demand from current owners who in the past would be buying more to increase their room options (moving from a studio to 1 or 2 bedrooms) and higher supply as people are forced to sell to reliably get access to 1 bedrooms. This, potentially, could have negative impacts on the resale market for poly not experienced by other resorts.

Granted, this is only conjecture and poly could swing wildly a different direction. However, I think it is a unique beast that could produce unique problems or opportunities.

 

[mkunichi]

I think I will be in the small minority opinion here but I think Poly could potentially screw up the balance of DVC for 1 bedrooms in the future and have interesting and unique resale dynamics.

Here is my logic.

Most of the points at poly will be sold to new members just like every other DVC project. Probably by 2016 it will be the only DVC being promoted to new members as VGF will be sold out or close.

As new members, I think many will feel studios will work. After all, it is nicer then the standard hotel rooms. However, those members, like most members, will eventually try 1 bedrooms at other resorts especially given the point cost is similar. They will discover, IMO, there is a big difference between a 1 bedroom and a studio for many families. As new members, this will be "discovered" knowledge. However, unlike any other DVC in the past, they cannot simply buy more points to stay in 1 bedrooms at poly. They either have to trade out or sell their points to keep using 1 bedrooms.

Not an unreasonable scenario. But I suspect that if things trend this way DVC will build or convert another building into 2 bedrooms lockoffs.

 

[dreaming4disney]

I love the Poly, but I don't get the PVB. Unless they do build 1 or 2 bedroom units, what do you get? The studio over a regular hotel room? I guess the extra shower. Even though we don't "cook" during our stays, we like to make breakfast dinner or just sit down at a table and have a snack. We can squeeze into a studio with the 5 of us for a few nights, but not a whole week. Although the bungalows look nice, I wouldn't trade a weeks worth of vacation points for a few days in one. I would be lucky to try it for one night at some point. Even that would seem like a poor use of my points.

I wonder where they go from here? Fort Wilderness villas at $200/point?

 

[sweetdana]

I must admit, the Poly DVC has me pretty confused on the DVC strategy.

1- the bungalows have a point cost that must exclude the vast majority of DVC owners. Like a grand villa, but they invested so much in them it just does not make sense. Grand villas at least used the general structures of the underlying DVC property. So they poured money into a product most cannot use.

4- they built so many studios, it would appear getting one at 7 months will not be difficult. Given it is the only real option at this DVC point wise, why own there? You could get the main product there using any DVC points. I thought it would be bungalows as the draw but they are so expensive point wise a very small percentage will own there for that reason.

5- you could try ajoining studios if you wanted more room at twice the point cost but that setup will not give you a kitchen or table to eat at and just two real beds and will give you 4 showers with two pull puts where you still need to share the room to sleep more then 4. A somewhat bizarre setup to me.
. stink.

1) I think there is a SUPPPPPPER small % of owners buying for the bungalows.. meaning 90% or more of those bungle points will be sold intending to rent studios.. making 7 month window HARDER not easier.. I believe this will have less available than BLT, GF, and BC.. I would pick Poly over those..
2) actually 2 studios is still way less points than a 2 bedroom, a family of 4 kids, cannot fit into a 1 bedroom, but can fit into 2 studios.. so .. actually some families who want to stretch points.. will benefit. You have 2 toilets, and 2 showers, running at the same time.. this gives 4 people time/space to get ready.. a BIG helper of the shower split from the toilet will be huge with bigger parties. ** I LOVVVVVVVE our split shower on DCL! LOVE LOVE LOVE!!!!!!!!!!! it .. I am not alone... yes, no kitchen ** we don't use ours, and no big tub... some won't mind. THE extra bed under the TV will actually give more kids sleeping space.. not putting gramma there, but if you have 2 girls and a boy.. they don't have to share a sofa bed.
3) the studios are 100 sq feet bigger, and about 8 points more per night.. **season change of coarse.. I would pay that prem for Poly over SSR.. or AK.. I am not alone..
4) If you look at the resale prices of say BC, BLT, GFV it isn't more.. BC is close to the same per year, (as it ends quicker) and BLT and GFV are what 20-40$ off a point.. It really isn't that big of a difference.. and you are walking dist to T&TC, and can watch wished from the beach.
last.. I LIKE unique of each resort.. DDR has tree houses, OKW has huge rooms and the GV with points from heaven, BC has Storm alone bay, AK has savanna view, and the Poly.. has HUGE studios and a split bath.. with an option of 2 connecting studios...

 

[dreaming4disney]

I think the Poly studios have one toilet. We are a family of 5 and can stay at BLT 1 bedroom because it has two bathrooms and the chair sleeper for my daughter. It is much more comfortable in a two bedroom but doable in the 1 bedroom. I guess with a family of 6 and needing a two bedroom the situation is a little different. I was happy when BLT opened and we could stay in a one BR- then we tried a two bedroom and how easily we filled that-now a 1 BR feels a bit small.

I am sure that the Poly will be very attractive to many.