Poly - hmmm

[nd43]

2) actually 2 studios is still way less points than a 2 bedroom, a family of 4 kids, cannot fit into a 1 bedroom, but can fit into 2 studios.. so .. actually some families who want to stretch points.. will benefit. You have 2 toilets, and 2 showers, running at the same time.. this gives 4 people time/space to get ready.. a BIG helper of the shower split from the toilet will be huge with bigger parties. ** I LOVVVVVVVE our split shower on DCL! LOVE LOVE LOVE!!!!!!!!!!! it .. I am not alone... yes, no kitchen ** we don't use ours, and no big tub... some won't mind. THE extra bed under the TV will actually give more kids sleeping space.. not putting gramma there, but if you have 2 girls and a boy.. they don't have to share a sofa bed.

Adjoining studios, to me, are more like a 1 bedroom then a two bedroom in terms of real life function. Comparing the points of adjoining studios to a true 2 bedroom villa is a little bit of stretch.

A two bedroom gives you 3 separate, larger living areas. A 1 bedroom gives you two separate living areas. If you want to sleep people in different living areas, adjoining studios function like a 1 bedroom.

3 TV areas, 3 different living areas, a kitchen, full table, washer/dryer, larger porches, much more room to "spread out". It is not just how many people I can put in a bed that matters to many. It is what space they have to their own while on vacation to do what they prefer.

In those terms (understandably just different points of view), a 2 bedroom villa will feel nothing like adjoining studios. I think they will function more like a 1 bedroom villa in terms of total functionality.

However, if you want the cheapest way to potentially sleep 10 people together, I think you are completely right. That will appeal to people I am sure. (should have put this in my original post!)

 

[DougEMG]

I totally disagree with the idea studios will be open at 7 months and that cheaper points will get good access.

Why on earth would anyone pay $160 a point for Poly points then go use them at another resort when most other resorts could be bought cheaper. I'm of the opinion Poly points will be light by Poly fans who want to use them to stay there. I see limited trading out meaning limited ability to trade in.

I think that the Poly studios will be available at the 7 month mark for a good part of the year, mainly because it has so many studios. Isn't SSR the only resort that has more studios than the Poly?

The majority of DVC purchasers buy on impulse and buy whatever Disney is selling, so if all they are selling is the Poly, that is what they will buy and they will trade out to other resorts or cruises, etc.

 

[sndral]

I think that the Poly studios will be available at the 7 month mark for a good part of the year, mainly because it has so many studios. Isn't SSR the only resort that has more studios than the Poly?
...

Yes, I posted the totals yesterday up thread.

Number of studios per resort:
VGF - 47
VWL - 65
BCV - 110
BLT - 133
OKW - 230
BWV - 246
AKV - 286*
PVB - 360**
SSR - 432

*AKV could be 296, the resource sticky confused me a bit.
** Does this number include phases 1&2?

I must be in the minority - based on the pictures the studios don't look 'nicer than a hotel room' to me. And the villa bedroom space looks smaller to me than what was in the old Poly rooms.
In regards to the moving up from studio to 1 br, I've read that the 1 br.s are the last to book - so although to me personally I'm willing to spend points for more space, I suspect I may be an outlier given availability trends of studios v. 1 br.s thus there must be a lot of DVC owners who prefer studios for point savings or other reasons out there.

 

[beer dave]

Yes, I posted the totals yesterday up thread.


I must be in the minority - based on the pictures the studios don't look 'nicer than a hotel room' to me. And the villa bedroom space looks smaller to me than what was in the old Poly rooms.
In regards to the moving up from studio to 1 br, I've read that the 1 br.s are the last to book - so although to me personally I'm willing to spend points for more space, I suspect I may be an outlier given availability trends of studios v. 1 br.s thus there must be a lot of DVC owners who prefer studios for point savings or other reasons out there.

I agree totally. People are more likely to move to a different studio and have a longer stay... especially at the current sale price. Kind of limits the market to buying enough for a poly studio. I am in your boat-- never stayed in a studio. I am hoping for the increased demand on the studios to cause a point re allocation between the one bedrooms and studios... mostly due to the increasing capacity of the older studios, but not the one bedrooms.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

And I'm just guessing here but basic logic dictates that the guides are pushing "...and there are plenty of 1 and 2 bedroom villas all over property at DVC that you're going to want to stay at anyway..." or something to that effect.

Just a follow-up to the one up there about new owners "discovering" 1 BRs at other properties.

I think because of point costs, there is going to be plenty of availability at DPV at the 7 month mark, unfortunately; the reason why is going to have adverse effects on all the rest of us.

I guess we shall see.

 

[Msmithmd]

I think because of point costs, there is going to be plenty of availability at DPV at the 7 month mark, unfortunately; the reason why is going to have adverse effects on all the rest of us. I guess we shall see.

I hope you're right, because I would like to use my cheap resale points to grab studios at PVB every so often. But I tend to believe Jerseyduke and Drusba's thesis, that the 1m points sold in the PVB allocated to bungalow units that almost no owners there are going to be able to afford, will actually make the studios very difficult to get much of the year.

Not at first, but when PVB sells out, I suspect that something akin to 95%+ of the resort's points are going to be vying for studios which account for only 80% of the resort's total points. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I predict a major PVB reallocation somewhere around 3-5 years down the road. Which DVC could mitigate, if they decide to build one of those initially planned towers as 2BR lockoffs, and concordantly dump some of the bungalow point chart off onto those units.

 

[KiminChicago]

I was so disappointed when I saw the room layouts and point charts. I love the Poly and would love to stay there, but there's no way even adjoining studios work for us, and we're a family of four, lol! We hate sleeper sofas -- they're never as comfortable as a real bed, and when they are open, they take up all the floor space. With two teenagers (one boy and one girl) we need the room that a two bedroom offers. Sadly, not only are the bungalows priced way above the number of points we have available, they don't even have three real beds. I was so looking forward to adding on at the Poly, but given the price per point and the fact that we are apparently not the demographic they were planning for, I guess I'll just have to put my wallet away.

 

[WMorganS]

I was so disappointed when I saw the room layouts and point charts. I love the Poly and would love to stay there, but there's no way even adjoining studios work for us, and we're a family of four, lol! We hate sleeper sofas -- they're never as comfortable as a real bed, and when they are open, they take up all the floor space. With two teenagers (one boy and one girl) we need the room that a two bedroom offers. Sadly, not only are the bungalows priced way above the number of points we have available, they don't even have three real beds. I was so looking forward to adding on at the Poly, but given the price per point and the fact that we are apparently not the demographic they were planning for, I guess I'll just have to put my wallet away.

What is the story on the poly building(s) with normal rooms, is there actually anything happening related to that or is it just wishful thinking?

My *impression* is that the Poly studios were added to meet demand for studios in the MK area (maybe BLT will become easier to book) and the bungalos were added... well... so people with too much money would spend it at Disney instead of Bora Bora

 

[McCrae]

Even when you ignore the initial purchase price of points the Poly is the most expensive DVC resort to stay at. When you look at the cost of annual dues and the number of points required to stay it is roughly 10% more than VGF and 50% more than BLT.

IMO VGF is the flag ship resort and should command a premium over all other resorts. The Poly is more on a par with BLT and should have a similar cost.

Poly looks to be over priced.

 

[Longhairbear]

I must admit, the Poly DVC has me pretty confused on the DVC strategy.

1- the bungalows have a point cost that must exclude the vast majority of DVC owners. Like a grand villa, but they invested so much in them it just does not make sense. Grand villas at least used the general structures of the underlying DVC property. So they poured money into a product most cannot use.

2- with only studios, they created an entire DVC of "nicer" hotel rooms. I realize studios are a key part of DVC but to make that the only real option for most owners? Strange.

3- they built all those studios "on the cheap" by reusing existing structures but at $160 per point priced it like a total premium new property. They went cheap on the product most will use and poured money into a product almost no one can afford point wise. It just feels like a raw deal to me? The margin on this DVC must be off the charts for them.

4- they built so many studios, it would appear getting one at 7 months will not be difficult. Given it is the only real option at this DVC point wise, why own there? You could get the main product there using any DVC points. I thought it would be bungalows as the draw but they are so expensive point wise a very small percentage will own there for that reason.

5- you could try ajoining studios if you wanted more room at twice the point cost but that setup will not give you a kitchen or table to eat at and just two real beds and will give you 4 showers with two pull puts where you still need to share the room to sleep more then 4. A somewhat bizarre setup to me.

The whole thing just appears strange to me. After BLT and VGF, I thought DVC had a certain strategy for the deluxe resorts on the monorail but this one just appears totally off from a sales perspective.

Perhaps there are just a ton of studio people in DVC and this is their monorail resort of choice (even though owning there appears optional to me - I think cheaper resort points would give them the same access).

It is a great resort and I totally understand people that love it for that reason. The DVC at this resort, however, appears to be th strangest property in the DVC system. I guess Disney will find out if it works for people. Some times "different" can attract a new audience.

My real fear is DVC is "stuck" with a very high point $ cost and are "shrinking" DVC rooms so they can lower point usage amounts to make a one week stay appear "reasonable" as a buyin cost at $160 per pt. That would stink.

I agree and am totally shocked at the lack of theming in the villas. Another thing that blindsided us was the lack of one, and two bedroom villas. We usually book a one bedroom.
We tend to save money by cooking in villa most meals, just like any other vacation home, but now at the Poly, a studio is our only option points wise, and having to shell out big bucks at the over priced restaurants for so so quality meals. We'll probably stay there once, just to say we did.

 

[disneynutz]

I am interested is seeing what happens to housekeeping and maintenance.

The bungalows are over water and I expect will get a full cleaning every couple of days due to short stays. That has to put more wear and tear in the units and will have a higher dues cost.

The studios don't have kitchens and they are small compared to a 1 bedroom so housekeeping should be able to turn more rooms faster and at a lower cost to dues paying owners.

What are your thoughts?

Bill

 

[bellablue2]

The bungalows are as you mention at such a high point cost that most purchasers there and even other DVC members cannot afford to use them. Nevertheless, they will get some use, likely high demand first two weeks of Dec, time during Oct, time around Thanksgiving, NYE to early Jan, time around July 4 and Memorial Day, and probably during the rest of the year but mainly for short two to three night stays. But undoubtedly there will be many openings during the year that members will not fill.

Personally, I believe that was planned. Disney does not care whether the members use them. Disney cares that the members buy the points applicable to them so it recovers its building costs and makes a profit. All those points applicable to the bungalows can be sold to all those purchasers who can afford only the points needed for studios. Result: Disney effectively sells the bungalows and recover its building costs and makes a profit from the sales. Then, it will get to rent those bungalows to the public at a much higher percentage than any other DVC rooms on site. To entice renters, it can offer deals that including discount rental prices, and packages with tickets and perks such as access to concierge services at Poly. It gets to keep almost all that rental income as profit because it has to pay only a small percentage of it to offset dues of the members as breakage income and all the costs of maintaining and repairing the bungalows will be paid for out of dues paid by all those members who could afford only the points necessary to get a studio.

That also means that by the time the resort sells out, the demand for the studios will greatly exceed supply becuase the members who purchased all those points applicable to the bungalows will be trying to get only studios the same as all those purchasers who bought all the points applicable to the studios. Result: though studios may be open many times of year at 7 months out, they are likely to be gone at 7 months out during high demand times like most of the times during the last quarter of the year.

The studio only concept for most of Poly may not fit into the concept of a normal DVC resort, but it will likely mean it will be a best seller. When you combine price per point and points needed per night, the place costs way too much for the target purchasers to be able to afford two bedrooms. Disney has, with combination of price per point and points per night, effectively raised the price to buy DVC at a new resort by about 60% during the last four years while inflation has been very low, and even the older resorts have gone up 50%. Studios have always been the higher demanded rooms, but with VGF and its prices and point costs, they have became almost the only demanded rooms. Poly is a recognition of and a solution to that issue while Disney still gets to raise prices and points per night to make a greater profit. The studios are large, have nice bathrooms, and those members needing a bigger unit to house the number of occupants for a 2BR can do so by buying enough points for two studios, meaning much less than what it would cost if there were 2BRs.

brilliant...i knew disney didn't make some clumsy pratfall here; i just didn't understand well how much they would/could plan delivering less and making more. but, it has yet to be seen if this really will work...i do know that i'm not buying poly.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I am interested is seeing what happens to housekeeping and maintenance.

The bungalows are over water and I expect will get a full cleaning every couple of days due to short stays. That has to put more wear and tear in the units and will have a higher dues cost.

The studios don't have kitchens and they are small compared to a 1 bedroom so housekeeping should be able to turn more rooms faster and at a lower cost to dues paying owners.

What are your thoughts?

Bill

They do something besides taking the trash out (most of the time), tightening the sheets and straightening the furniture? Where are you staying at?

 

[WMorganS]

I think the Poly will be booked solid and sell like gangbusters, and I think the analysts here has been fundamentally flawed because it assumes that Disney's motivation is to raise prices, but it's not. Disney's motivation is to satisfy our voracious demand for "show" and "courtesy", and they are very very smart about it. So the question you have to ask is, what customer demand(s) led to this offering.

Clearly there is a huge lack of supply when it come to MK studios, so that part is easy. Clearly if no MK area studios are available at 4 months out, either the price needs to go up or more studios have to be built. In this case they did both. The poly studios probably provide more "courtesy" and "show" than other MK area studios so a higher price makes sense. And this is not a BAD thing for us, it's great, because it means we can stay at the poly if we want to but if we don't want to then this added supply of MK area studios will make getting a room at 3 months easier at the other resorts.

The same logic applies to the bungalows. How many DVC room types are still bookable in the MK area at 3, 7, and 10 months out? And is the MK area (and in particular the poly) where DVC should expand the low cost market? No, the poly is EXACTLY where you want to build something that's completely over the top, and it's the only place were you can build it because customers won't pay over the top prices if they're not getting an over the top location in return.

That's it really... I think the motivation is to find ways to meet our voracious demand for as much courtesy and show.as they can come up with.

Thoughts?

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I think you missed the point we've been making about the millions of points flowing into the system for the bungalows that (mostly) won't be used for the bungalows at all.

This is going to create a free-for-all at studios all over property, IMO. Doesn't bother me. We mostly stay in 1BRs anyway. All those bungalow points are going to flow into the system as cheap studio points. I just don't think this is good (for DVC overall).

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Has anyone done the math for what the equivalent number of additional studios (at DPV) would be for the points being sold as bungalows? In other words, how many more studios would it take to absorb the bungalow points annually assuming no one ever stayed at a bungalow on points?

 

[WMorganS]

I think you missed the point we've been making about the millions of points flowing into the system for the bungalows that (mostly) won't be used for the bungalows at all. This is going to create a free-for-all at studios all over property, IMO.

But that problem contingent upon the Bungalows not being rented, right? So your supposition is that the bungalow pricing is SO high, that the distribution of high end owners among the other home resorts is inadequate?

 

[bookwormde]

But that problem contingent upon the Bungalows not being rented, right? So your supposition is that the bungalow pricing is SO high, that the distribution of high end owners among the other home resorts is inadequate?

We are already seeing that to some extent based on the higher priced GV occupancy/booking rates

 

[Missyrose]

I think the Poly will be booked solid and sell like gangbusters, and I think the analysts here has been fundamentally flawed because it assumes that Disney's motivation is to raise prices, but it's not. Disney's motivation is to satisfy our voracious demand for "show" and "courtesy", and they are very very smart about it. So the question you have to ask is, what customer demand(s) led to this offering. Clearly there is a huge lack of supply when it come to MK studios, so that part is easy. Clearly if no MK area studios are available at 4 months out, either the price needs to go up or more studios have to be built. In this case they did both. The poly studios probably provide more "courtesy" and "show" than other MK area studios so a higher price makes sense. And this is not a BAD thing for us, it's great, because it means we can stay at the poly if we want to but if we don't want to then this added supply of MK area studios will make getting a room at 3 months easier at the other resorts. The same logic applies to the bungalows. How many DVC room types are still bookable in the MK area at 3, 7, and 10 months out? And is the MK area (and in particular the poly) where DVC should expand the low cost market? No, the poly is EXACTLY where you want to build something that's completely over the top, and it's the only place were you can build it because customers won't pay over the top prices if they're not getting an over the top location in return. That's it really... I think the motivation is to find ways to meet our voracious demand for as much courtesy and show.as they can come up with. Thoughts?

It's a timeshare, it's supposed to be difficult to book a room three or four months out because that's how timeshares work. Timeshares are meant to be booked solid, so once you get a few months past any system'is booking windows, you'll have a hard time finding what you're looking for. Disney building the Poly had nothing to do with "courtesy" and little to do with "show," it was built to make as much money as possible for. Disney -- which is fine because Disney is a corporation and that's what we expect of corporation.

 

[gmboy95]

Even when you ignore the initial purchase price of points the Poly is the most expensive DVC resort to stay at. When you look at the cost of annual dues and the number of points required to stay it is roughly 10% more than VGF and 50% more than BLT.

IMO VGF is the flag ship resort and should command a premium over all other resorts. The Poly is more on a par with BLT and should have a similar cost.

Poly looks to be over priced.

completely agree with you....i would love to know the overall business plan...because the way I am feeling, folks are going to be pretty pissed when the resale market is established for POLY