Political - How many points should Kerry bump up or he's in trouble?

[MJames41]

Just a question for anyone - if Kerry doesn't bump up x number of points he would be in trouble - how much would you say x is? I would think at least 5 points ahead of Bush, or he would be in big trouble. What about everyone else?

 

[jennyanydots]

considering that the most recent Time Magazine poll shows Kerry at 46% and Bush at 43%, I think it's Bush, not Kerry, who needs the "bump". but somehow I doubt he'll get it.

 

[bsnyder]

jennyanydots, the head to head national polls don't mean much.

Kerry's trailing in electoral votes.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5344731/

 

[MJames41]

Originally posted by jennyanydots
considering that the most recent Time Magazine poll shows Kerry at 46% and Bush at 43%, I think it's Bush, not Kerry, who needs the "bump". but somehow I doubt he'll get it.

If Bush gets a bump this week, then Kerry would be in very real trouble. With the Democratic Convention this week in Boston, history shows that the Democratic nominee always gets a bump from that, where the Republican nominee gets it when their convention goes. I'm just wondering if Kerry only gets a very little bump what people think.

I just think that if Kerry doesn't come out of this week at least 5 points ahead in the polls, he will be in very real trouble with the Republican Convention still to come, although there is still a great deal of time for both.

 

[JimB.]

I think anywhere from 5-15% is not out of the question, but holding it is another matter. Even Mike Dukakis got a big bump from the convention, and look what happened to him.

IMHO, it is in the Republican's favor that their convention comes second. People have a tendency to remember what they hear last. Expect President Bush to get the same kind of "bump".

And then the real mudslinging begins............................

 

[Obi-Wan Pinobi]

Originally posted by MJames41
I just think that if Kerry doesn't come out of this week at least 5 points ahead in the polls, he will be in very real trouble with the Republican Convention still to come, although there is still a great deal of time for both.

5 points ahead of Bush all total or 5 points ahead of where he's at now (such as the Time poll showing Kerry ahead 46-43 jennyanydots mentioned)?

I'd have to say any bump in the polls from about 5 or 6 points and less would be disappointing, and that's in addition to where he's at now. That's half of the 11 percent undecided or other in the Time poll.

 

[jrydberg]

I don't really think the magnitude of the bump Kerry-Edwards gets from the convention is particularly meaningful. It will dissipate over time just as it always does

 

[faithinkarma]

Originally posted by bsnyder
jennyanydots, the head to head national polls don't mean much.

Kerry's trailing in electoral votes.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5344731/

You might want to check out a few other sites :

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html ( maintained by a fervent Bush supporter )

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ an excellent site, updated daily



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral College Table.htm

http://www.swingstateproject.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

http://tis.goringe.net/pop/pollofpolls.html a poll of polls which is very interesting

As to the bump, I believe that just as in all other cases, this election is different from all others. Kerry is already ahead of all other contenders who went up against an incumbent. There is just not enough room for movement to cause any significant bump. But if you take the time to checkout the progression of some of the polls for the last few months, there has been a slow and steady progression in one direction.

 

[jrydberg]

Kerry is not ahead of all other contenders who have gone up against an incumbent. Reagan had a similar lead over Carter in the 1980 campaign and Carter had a huge lead over Ford in the 1976 campaign.

IMO this campaign is no different than any other in that the polls at this point are relatively meaningless.

 

[faithinkarma]

According to the following trend lines, Reagan was one point behind Carter at the time of the Republican convention in mid August of 1980. As to Ford, I have no data, but Ford was not an elected president when he went up against Carter.

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1252

IMO this campaign is no different than any other in that the polls at this point are relatively meaningless.

On this we agree. Let's face it, the people telling us about the polls have only one interest: getting us to tune in to see the latest. As long as they keep getting results that show a close race, we will keep tuned.

 

[jrydberg]

Well the point in time we're looking at is July. According to Gallup, Reagan held a lead of a few points throughout July and into August. And Ford was the incumbent whether elected or not.

But that's not really the issue. If you look at the trend lines on Gallup's site for presidential elections, polls prior to the conventions have little bearing on the outcome of the election. In fact, in Gallup's case anyway, it is remarkable how many times the last poll prior to the election was off by enough to make a difference in the outcome. Polls can show trends, but are very poor at predicting the actual vote.

 

[faithinkarma]

I cannot disagree. What I was disagreeing with was the contention that polls showed Bush to be ahead in electoral votes.

 

[jrydberg]

Ahh... well if I ever start spouting something about Bush being ahead in polls, do me a favor and remind me that I don't like polls

 

[MJames41]

Originally posted by faithinkarma
You might want to check out a few other sites :


http://www.electoral-vote.com/ an excellent site, updated daily

Thanks FIK, I was just thinking yesterday that I would love a site that showed a visual of the states and how they are leaning. I've bookmarked the site. (Guess great minds are thinking a like).