Point Values at upcoming DVC Resorts

[lwaverill]

I have seen many threads comparing value of points at DVC resorts. BWV being more than WLV. I have something else to throw in to the mix. What are peoples opinion on when the cost of DVC Points will decrease?

What I mean is that the price for points have been going up steadily since 1992. I believe from 50.00 a point to the present value of 72.00. Since the contracts all end in 2042, there has to be a point that is reached that the diminishing years on the contract will have a negative effect on the value of a point.

Will Disney beable to build a DVC resort in 2030 and sell points at $ 200.00 a piece?

I understand inflation rates etc., but does anyone have any opinions on what the effect will be on present DVCers and future purchases.

I know this is a long time away, but I'm just wondering.

Off-Site '78
All-Star Sports '97
CBR '98
PO '00
BWV '01

[This message was edited by lwaverill on 02-15-01 at 10:48 PM.]

 

[RobDoc]

Good question- which is certainluy open to speculation.

I think that the point costs will not decrease, but when DVC recognizes that the 2042 date negatively impacts sales a new DVC entity (such as DVCII) will begin with it's own end date. There may be some cross reservation privileges between DVC and DVCII, but DVCII will have its own resorts and operating budgets and will be independent of DVC. My .02!

Doc
doc@wdwinfo.com

 

[drusba]

Assuming they continue to build, I would guess that long before they reach the point of being too close to 2042 to continue to get top dollar, they will start a scond DVC for new resorts with a whole new end date 50 years out. I would also guess by 2010 you would start reaching the point where raising prices with a 2042 end date isn't going to work too well.

 

[Dean]

As far as resales go, the prices will start down within a few years after the last resort is sold out or in the case of DVC II, likely when about 15-20 years are remaining on the contracts (say 2020-25). Of course the Disney repurchase decisions will continue to affect resale prices. For new resorts, you will continue to see both the increase in the cost per point and increase in the number of points required to reserve the same type of accomodations.

As for DVC II, I don't even think that is necessary. Since each resort is pretty much seperate in management and budget, any new resorts could have a different end date other than the the current 2042 and not affect the overall order. The decision is actually for Disney to decide if they want to stay in the timeshare business. BC will likely be sold out around 2004-5 or so, some think sooner, but not me. Assuming another resort would be about 2 years behind, that would put sell out at say 2006-7 or only 35 years or so remaining until 2042. I think that's about the limit to maintain the current structure and timing of ending in 2042. So I'd say that one or even no more resorts after BC will be built and end in 2042. We'll see then if DVC wants to continue in the timeshare business then. My suspicion is that BC will be it though I hope I'm wrong. Unfortunately when DVC scaled back their plans and abandoned the already bought or controlled lands in Newport Beach CA and CO as well as the serious investigations for HI and NYC, we saw the beginning of the end. Unfortunately for all of us, the problems with the off site DVC were the decisions that were made as to location and sales tactics and not the resorts themselves. If Marriott can build resorts at places like Panama City and Singer Island and be competative, DVC could do similar or better.

Dean