POC - Good Enough yet? / Weekly Update

[MelissathePooh]

Well for starters we only paid $5.50 - our theater was brilliantly clean and not too bad deals on popcorn and cokes! Not everything is as grim as L.A.! I realize that certain markets are more expensive than others - I've been to many a movie in NYC - my point is its not that way everywhere else - which I think tends to be overlooked by some people who live in these huge metro areas. The rest of the country works a little differently.

I have spoken to multiple people outside this board - none of whom have even heard of The Dis and all have thoroughly enjoyed POTC. Does that mean the whole world will - not necessarily, but just because a group of people here on these boards who may be a bit partial, like the film - doesn't mean it isn't appealing to the general public as well.

LXG did not shock anyone in our house - I thought it looked more interesting than DR did, but didn't expect it to succeed, he expected it would bomb. But neither of us find Victorian era works to be that interesting outside of the original works.

But what do I know I must just be one of the ignorant masses out there. Just some idiot willing to plunk down my money so that all those people in Hollywood get a paycheck.

In all honesty, and I hope this isn't the case, but its almost as if some people are hoping or waiting for POTC, MS or whatever - to fail so that they can prove their point.

This isn't about being a Disney "apologist" - its just about enjoying a film that was well made, well written and a lot of fun - and hoping it is a huge success!

Melissa

 

[EUROPA]

Maybe this is a sign(see below)...for what it is worth...I though the movie was pretty darn good. Clearly Star Wars and Gone with the Wind are not in danger of being knocked off the top of the list, but it was a good summer movie I'd rank it in quality right along Independence Day and MIB type of movies. Like AV said the real test will be this weekend. If it has good word of mouth then it won't drop 50+ %

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62651-2003Jul16.html

Disney Sets Sail on 'Pirates' Sequel
Reuters
Wednesday, July 16, 2003; 2:05 AM

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Eager to unearth more buried treasure now that "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" raised its flag high at the box office this past weekend, the Walt Disney Co. is already talking of setting sail on a sequel to the theme park ride-inspired feature.

In anticipation of the film's success, Disney had already made sequel arrangements with such key cast members as Johnny Depp, Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley, as well as with the behind-the-scenes duo of producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Gore Verbinski. And the studio has also begun talks with "Pirates" scribes Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio about drafting a sequel, though no specific story line has yet been set.

Since its opening last Wednesday, "Pirates" has earned more than $78 million, including a $46.6 million opening-weekend take that easily won last weekend's box office battle.

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter

 

[*Robin*]

Originally posted by Another Voice

...and got in the car and drove to the theater and waited in line to chuck over nine bucks for a ticket than another eight bucks for a cup of ice/water/soda (in that order) and a Kleenex full of popcorn and then put up with the sticky seats to watch ten minutes of commercials before the fifteen minutes of trailers before the movie started.

GEESH AV, you have GOT to have a talk with your theater management!! YIKES!

 

[HB2K]

I haven't seen Pirates yet, (Next weekend), but my little local theater said that it's been the busiest movie all year for them, after Nemo. They are still selling out day after day, and are very surprised by how well it's doing.

Nemo is, by the way, still playing there also to about 1/2 full crowds. Nice.

We'll see how full the theaters are for Pirates (If it's still there) in 2 months after it's release.

I'd lay odds that the film won't survive 2 months....unlike another movie about the ocean....

As for the criticism of AV....while I'm sure he can defend his stance, I think the point he was trying to make was the opening weekend for Pirates (and most other blockbusters for that matter) was the built in audience....who would have seen the movie no matter what the reviews said, etc.

It will be interesting to see if this movie can keep this audience. I'll bet long term it can't. My best guess is (FWIW) is that the film will barely cover it's costs. It'll end up profitable when factoring over seas receipts and it's video release...

There's nothing wrong with enjoying the movie...but to call it a smashing success before it's covered its' production costs (and sorry, but I'll trust AV's word more than any website) is a little premature. To say the film has legs after one week in release is even more absurd. The only film which has displayed it's legs this year is Nemo (and I'll admit prior to watching most of the films, I didn't think it would top Matrix, Hulk & Terminator just on name's sake alone...).

 

[Planogirl]

I'm enjoying some extra time right now so I've seen four movies in the last week. That's right 4. In each case, I got in the car and drove to the theater and paid for my tickets and so on. I've had a good week because I in some way enjoyed all 4 but Pirates was my favorite. (Yes, I even enjoyed LXG as silly as it was, maybe I'm a goose.)

But I'm one who did NOT like Atlantis and Lilo & Stitch so being a Disney fan guarantees nothing where I'm concerned.

It will be interesting to see if this movie can keep this audience. I'll bet long term it can't. My best guess is (FWIW) is that the film will barely cover it's costs. It'll end up profitable when factoring over seas receipts and it's video release...

I believe that the film won't go much above it's costs domestically but it will do quite well once it hits the international circuit. And I agree that video sales will be strong.

 

[rwodonnell]

Originally posted by HB2K
I'd lay odds that the film won't survive 2 months....unlike another movie about the ocean....

Are we now constrained to compare all future releases to Nemo? You're talking about the #1 box office movie of the year, which is sure to pass (if it hasn't already) $300M. Sorry, but that's just nonsense. Why not just say it won't make $600M like Titanic, so it's a failure?

If this movie makes back it's $180M in costs in domestic box office, it will be a raving success, plain and simple. Many many movies lose money.

Oh, and 2 months in theaters is a LOOONG time. Nemo is not even to that point yet, so I am not sure what your point is.

On another note, I am not sure what people were surprised at with League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, how well it did or how poorly? If they expected it to do even worse than it did, I imagine one reason it even got the numbers it got was that people going to see Pirates and facing sold out shows may have gone to League. We almost did, but decided to go home and save the babysitter expense! $10 an hour just sort of heaps that much more pain on things...

 

[crusader]

To say the film has legs after one week in release is even more absurd.

That'd be me. Hey I can say this on several levels which will hopefully serve to alleviate those too tame to stick their necks out and brave taking a hit once in a while.

First, repeat viewers which is a very big thing for any movie - and this has gone way beyond the ready market.

Second, the box office numbers to date are very very promising.

Third, there's not much competition out there to beat this in a week. My guess is TombRaider 2 will be the frontrunner when it opens in another week but until then, Pirates has a great shot at luring more spectators.

Fourth, like it or not it is a "great" "entertaining" summer movie and Johnny Depp is worth the price of admission. That means people will continue to patronize it. If you don't want to believe it I have a bit of a reminder for you: Bruce Almighty! All anyone wanted to know was whether or not the movie was any good. Not great. Not spectacular brilliant visionary masterpiece. Just plain old good. That's show business!

 

[HB2K]

If this movie makes back it's $180M in costs in domestic box office, it will be a raving success, plain and simple. Many many movies lose money.

Gee I thought a company makes a movie the do it with the intent of making a profit....not just breaking even. Silly me.

Are we now constrained to compare all future releases to Nemo? You're talking about the #1 box office movie of the year, which is sure to pass (if it hasn't already) $300M. Sorry, but that's just nonsense. Why not just say it won't make $600M like Titanic, so it's a failure?

As of right now, Nemo is the flag bearer for the year. All other movies are out to match it (If they're not, there's something wrong with the company producing them).

With posters here saying Pirates has legs (I'll get to that in a second), the comparison is made. Nemo is the ONLY movie this year to show that it has legs.

First, repeat viewers which is a very big thing for any movie - and this has gone way beyond the ready market.

I don't understand this quote....are you saying Pirates is experincing a high "let's see it again" viewership? If so, please post a link indicating this.

Second, the box office numbers to date are very very promising.

As were Matrix Reloaded, Hulk, T3 and historically Pearl Harbor. The opening weekend is not a good indicator of wether a movie has grown legs.

Third, there's not much competition out there to beat this in a week. My guess is TombRaider 2 will be the frontrunner when it opens in another week but until then, Pirates has a great shot at luring more spectators.

I don't know....I haven't read anything about Bad Boys II, but I do hear a TON of advertising for the film. While I didn't plan on seeing Bad Boys (and can't now with the newborn), I haven't heard of this groundswell of support for Pirates which everyone here seems to cling to. Once again, please post a link other than the box office results from last week if I've missed something.

Fourth, like it or not it is a "great" "entertaining" summer movie and Johnny Depp is worth the price of admission. That means people will continue to patronize it. If you don't want to believe it I have a bit of a reminder for you: Bruce Almighty! All anyone wanted to know was whether or not the movie was good. Not great. Not spectacular brilliant visionary masterpiece. Just plain old good.

As I said before, there is nothing wrong with enjoying Pirates (I was going to see it before the baby came last week). But the example you used (Bruce) is another movie which performed well in it's opening weekend, but then struggled to maintain it's audience. Bruce had hovered around the bottom half of the top ten, but it didn't enjoy multiple weeks at number one, or a long run in the top 5. I think Pirates will follow a similar pattern. It may pull out another top week this week (but far from guaranteed) and it will probably filter out as the newer releases come out (Tomb Raider, American Pie, etc).

 

[rwodonnell]

Originally posted by HB2K
Gee I thought a company makes a movie the do it with the intent of making a profit....not just breaking even. Silly me.

Well, you're the one who said "silly", but yeah. I said "if it makes $180M in domestic box office", and if does that, then all foreign box office and video sales are gravy. And that's allotta gravy.

Originally posted by HB2K
As of right now, Nemo is the flag bearer for the year. All other movies are out to match it (If they're not, there's something wrong with the company producing them).

Spare us the pep talk coach... You just said the goal is to make money. Not every film has as its goal to be number 1 of the year. That's just "silly". We would never get a lot of decent movies if that was the case.

There is a lot wrong in Disney these days, but I get the impression that some folks won't see the positive when it hits them smack in the face. Why not direct some of that negativity to the real problem areas? (I know you will, I'm not worried! )

 

[crusader]

I don't understand this quote....are you saying Pirates is experincing a high "let's see it again" viewership? If so, please post a link indicating this.

Comeon! You know as well as I do that it's not quite time yet for this information to surface in reputable print. But If you must have my claims substantiated right this very second then we'll have to do some statistical analysis. "Savvy!"

So Here goes: First, I personally know of 4 individuals who have seen Pirates twice. I also have read on these boards of other posters who have seen this more than once as well.

Now my 4 are not disneyites and have never been so they automatically fall outside of that ready market. In fact, two of the four have never ever paid to see any movie twice in the theatre and they happen to be adults.

All we need now is to gather a random sampling beyond my 4, apply a bit of extrapolation and there you have it - repeat viewers!

Also, take my advice and critique this movie for yourself. I understand your family demands are priority one right now but you'll eventually get a chance to see it because it will stick around. It really is that good.

Oh and one more thing. When I mentioned Bruce Almighty, I wasn't trying to draw a parallel regarding a movie sustaining top box office billing, I was pointing out that this bizarre little comedy kept going beyond opening weekend simply because it was entertaining enough to draw patrons. That is what I consider legs to be - those appendages which help a movie walk right past the opener and keep on travelling way beyond the 200+ mil mark.

 

[HB2K]

Well, you're the one who said "silly", but yeah. I said "if it makes $180M in domestic box office", and if does that, then all foreign box office and video sales are gravy. And that's allotta gravy.

Are you forgetting something? If the movie pulls in $180 in domestic box office receipts, Disney only pulls back $90 to $120 Mill (the theaters need to make something, as do the actors & producers who take a cut of the receipts).

Spare us the pep talk coach... You just said the goal is to make money. Not every film has as its goal to be number 1 of the year. That's just "silly". We would never get a lot of decent movies if that was the case.

The goal is to make money....a lot of money. The only company I have ever seen say "We're number two and we're happy!" was Snapple. You do not invest $180 Million dollars to break even. Ever.

Comeon! You know as well as I do that it's not quite time yet for this information to surface in reputable print.

So let me get this straight. We're talking about the national promise of this movie, and you make a statement that the movie has legs because 4 people you know went to see it twice?

No further discussion on this is needed. I'm not saying the movie will totally stall out (although I'm guessing it will). I'm saying only time will tell if it's got legs or not.

Oh and one more thing. When I mentioned Bruce Almighty, I wasn't trying to draw a parallel regarding a movie sustaining top box office billing, I was pointing out that this bizarre little comedy kept going beyond opening weekend simply because it was entertaining enough to draw patrons. That is what I consider legs to be - those appendages which help a movie walk right past the opener and keep on travelling way beyond the 200+ mil mark.

We can draw that paralel once Pirates displays it's ability to do the same.

 

[crusader]

So let me get this straight. We're talking about the national promise of this movie, and you make a statement that the movie has legs because 4 people you know went to see it twice?

What? I don't think you have this straight at all. I do believe you took something, twisted it like a contortionist and made it seem so benign in an attempt to obliterate the point. Where's that penalty flag?

Repeat viewers was the point you needed written verifiable proof of within the first week which you knew was a pipe dream. I gave you an option to prove the facts based on what we know and offerred my firsthand knowledge of 4 repeaters. There are several posts on the boards which equally give you firsthand knowledge of people who have seen this movie more than once. This isn't rocket science here - how do you think the analyists get their data anyway? I was starting the process for you to help prove the facts. That's all.

I will say this: you can't deny this movie has staying power because of its' ability to grab the audience. The script is excellent! The line delivery is mesmerizing and the acting is brilliant which calls people back. It's going to do very well indeed!

I do believe I clearly defined the legs issue already so no need to restate that one.

Unfortunately, you are relying on premise regarding a film's durability. I have seen the film and can therefore add validity to my statements. I have enough experience with movieland to know what's walking and what's hobbling along after personally sampling far too many works to reflect upon. I do understand your inability to see this right now - I just wish you had the opportunity. It really would help clarify the worthiness of the film.

 

[Redcon1]

Here's one....no three threads about people who are going back to see the movie more than once:
http://forums.dvdfile.com/interactive/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=34270
http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=304152


http://www.mouseinfo.com/mousetalk/showthread.php?t=9118

I've attached the links to the entire thread instead of specific message as they make good reading overall.

Will POTC make as much as Nemo? Probably not, but I think it has a very good chance of being in the top three for the year.
This is a movie that welcomes repeat viewing as there's alot to savor: acting, special effects, humor, etc.

Redcon1

 

[crusader]

Thanks Redcon1. Great read!

Looks like the repeats are moving beyond speculation.

 

[HB2K]

What? I don't think you have this straight at all. I do believe you took something, twisted it like a contortionist and made it seem so benign in an attempt to obliterate the point. Where's that penalty flag?

You wrote (defending your opinion that this movie has legs):

So Here goes: First, I personally know of 4 individuals who have seen Pirates twice. I also have read on these boards of other posters who have seen this more than once as well.

Now my 4 are not disneyites and have never been so they automatically fall outside of that ready market. In fact, two of the four have never ever paid to see any movie twice in the theatre and they happen to be adults.

All we need now is to gather a random sampling beyond my 4, apply a bit of extrapolation and there you have it - repeat viewers!

So what am I missing (or twisting as you say)? You know of 4 people, and a bunch of people who visit Disney Bulletin Boards on the internet who will proclaim they're going to see the movie over and over. Heck even Car 3 people still patronize what they percieve as a faulty product.

The fact is there has been ZERO mainstream press to substantiate your stance that this week old movie has legs. You make this statement based on 4 people and a bunch of Disney fans.

I'm still not convinced that this movie can be determined to have legs after one week. Heck I thought Matrix would have had legs (I saw it and actually liked it) but we know how that turned out. And for what it's worth I know four people who saw the movie, who think I'm a dweeb for spending so much time on this board who thought the movie was so so.....so if we base our statements on personal experince, so using your theory I could tell you the movie does NOT have legs (which I can't say because I know it's too early to make that assumption).

Also once again : I am not saying this movie will not succeed, just guessing it will pitter out. I'm not saying it's not a good movie, since I haven't seen it but want to.

I'm disputing the proclaimation of greatness and durability in this post. That's all. I don't need to see the film to make the point that it is way too early to determine that.

 

[Redcon1]

The first two bulletin boards are NOT Disney message boards.
They are from DVD websites. where the posters may not even be Disney fans, but love movies in general.
Here's another link that's definintely not a Disney board:


http://www.rottentomatoes.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=248995

and here's another one that shows the daily box office results:
http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.html

The first two days this week, the film's average was about $7.5 million which if my math is correct would be about $52.5 for the whole week(Monday-Sunday). This would only be about a 25%
dropoff, instead of the previously mentioned 50%.
I'm assuming an average of 7.5, balancing a lower weekday vs. weekend amount, so $52.5 is not unreasonable, especially since the only real competition is Bad Boys 2.

Redcon1

 

[*Robin*]

I thouht this was kind of interesting as well...

Numbers News

 

[FriendsOfEeyore]

WOW!!!

HB2K, you are considering Nemo to be a success now? You say that it has legs? About six weeks ago, I posted a similar question related to Nemo. "Can we call Nemo a success?"

Your comments, were let's see. It has only been a week or 10 days. You ripped my calling Nemo a success, and were only able to bring up points about how Nemo was a Pixar film. Now, you are using Nemo as the "standard of success".

As others have said (and I understand your current family position, as I were there at this time last year), you really can not understand the magnitude (QUALITY) of the writing, acting, and overall editing of this film, until you have a chance to see it.

THOUGHTS

1. Ask grandma to babysit! She will love it...
2. Take your dw to see this movie! You both will love it for it is what a movie should be... Entertaining and worth the price of admission.
3. Come back here and tell what you think about the crowd applauding and how much staying power PoTC will have.

Edward

 

[EUROPA]

Originally posted by FriendsOfEeyore
You ripped my calling Nemo a success, and were only able to bring up points about how Nemo was a Pixar film. Now, you are using Nemo as the "standard of success".

I would not have called Nemo a success after that amount of time either. I will also say that Nemo's success has little to do with Disney it's not as if the quality of Pixar's work is rubbing off on Disney. With that being said now that we can verify though numbers and time that Nemo is a success if you want to compare any other moive to a succesful movie this year (reguardless of who made it) then Nemo would be one of those films.

 

[crusader]

The fact is there has been ZERO mainstream press to substantiate your stance that this week old movie has legs. You make this statement based on 4 people and a bunch of Disney fans.

No No No! This is exactly what I mean by twisted!!!!!!

I gave you four (count em) four reasons why I feel this movie has legs - which it does!!!!

I then gave you four (count em) four real people to support the one claim you needed validated regarding repeat viewers.

Now you need the main stream press - which is what I had suspected all along - who we all know are not going to even attempt to take this story to print before another weekend passes. So I gave you some real examples to be plugged into our stat model and asked for more to begin to provide what a reporter would utilize to authenticate such a remark.

and now it begins...................

I'm really not trying to convince you of this as it is very difficult for anyone who has yet to see this movie to fully grasp its' propensity. The trailors don't do it any justice at all.