Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[jade1]

Ok, let me put this argument out there. I own at GF and Poly, the two most expensive properties on property (point wise). My points are worth approximately $15 per point. If we take an average cost of GF at 24 points per night, that gives GF a value of $360. That's a pretty good deal for a $600/night room. Now, take the going rate of SSR. It's about 12-14 points per night to stay there. Use my valuation at $15 and that means it's $210/night. Not so great on a $300 room, but if I have the points sitting, I might burn them there. So, we've given GF a value of $360 and SSR $210. Now, that means we have to be able to save money off a normally $180/night room that usually has discounts bringing it in line around $160. That means this room would have to be a max of 10 points per night to fall in line with the current point valuation. There's no way they're selling 10 ptpn rooms. That means someone with a contract of 100 points can stay there for 10 days. Not happening.

I have already said I would not buy CBR DVC if no direct access to EPCOT right next door, and probably not DHS but would consider.

That said, I will not/did not buy at SSR either.

But between those 2, if CBR tower is done right (without direct access) I would pay more in points or cash than SSR. Just not own at either one.

I can reserve a room on the other side of DSprings from SSR for far less than CBR. I don't stay at SSR or the DTD hotels, just doing a similar comparison.

 

[jade1]

Because it's hot as hell and this path wouldn't be nearly as short as its being made out here. The parking lot form the garages at springs or the breezeway at contemporary is not a good comparison.

People won't like the Bataan Death March in the heat and they will complain, look for other options.

It's not always hot, but either way-having direct access to the CR 3rd floor amenities is a way better option IMO. But we often have a wheelchair to so fewer elevators and wasted time the better.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You're missing the point on why CBR is so much more attractive for DVC expansion over other moderate resorts or even another deluxe resort. By it's location or proximity to the parks alone, it really should be a deluxe resort. Obviously, because of it's age, layout, lack of accessibility to parks, and any number of reasons you can think of it's considered moderate. You have to get over this idea that this DVC at CBR is going to be a moderate. DVC and most importantly a new form of direct access changes most of that. It transforms an aging, under-performing property into a gold mine. I don't consider adding an extra stop on the Friendship Boat routes to be a logistical nightmare. It actually is the cheapest and simplest option with the most upside. The direct access will happen, it's just so simple and inexpensive it doesn't need to be permitted yet. When is the last time a DVC was built in the swamp or marketed without easy access to the parks?

Do you doubt the suits would miss out on an opportunity to jack up rack rate rooms at CBR without doing any type of significant upgrade to the rest of the property? CRB as it currently stands could be related to a trailer park sitting on ocean front property. Drop a deluxe DVC with park access on the same property and the value of the rest of the rack rate rooms increase. No low ball point per night rate or changes to the DVC model needed. Huge profit to be had just for digging an over sized ditch and building a boat dock.

I spent thousands of hours at Caribbean...not joking...

You're so off on this...Caribbean is not a "deluxe" location... Coronado is about as close to animal kingdom...is that deluxe?

It's more than just looking at it on google earth...this idea to just "link it" to the back of Epcot is silly. It's landlocked and it takes forever to get out of the place due to layout.

You could say that they could build a new dvc at a spot that makes it a better location...relatively. But Caribbean is not a "deluxe" location.

 

[jade1]

If it's not DVC at CBR, this will be an enormous oh never mind.

 

[mab2012]

There's no way they're selling 10 ptpn rooms. That means someone with a contract of 100 points can stay there for 10 days. Not happening.

Why not?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Why not?

It would cause more booking "imbalance" in the system.

And if you understand the numbers...that would limit how many points they can sell. In essence: cheaper per point nights make the sale of the property less valuable. It also reduces what they collect for maintenance fees.

 

[Madonna3]

You're missing the point on why CBR is so much more attractive for DVC expansion over other moderate resorts or even another deluxe resort. By it's location or proximity to the parks alone, it really should be a deluxe resort. Obviously, because of it's age, layout, lack of accessibility to parks, and any number of reasons you can think of it's considered moderate. You have to get over this idea that this DVC at CBR is going to be a moderate. DVC and most importantly a new form of direct access changes most of that. It transforms an aging, under-performing property into a gold mine. I don't consider adding an extra stop on the Friendship Boat routes to be a logistical nightmare. It actually is the cheapest and simplest option with the most upside. The direct access will happen, it's just so simple and inexpensive it doesn't need to be permitted yet. When is the last time a DVC was built in the swamp or marketed without easy access to the parks?

Do you doubt the suits would miss out on an opportunity to jack up rack rate rooms at CBR without doing any type of significant upgrade to the rest of the property? CRB as it currently stands could be related to a trailer park sitting on ocean front property. Drop a deluxe DVC with park access on the same property and the value of the rest of the rack rate rooms increase. No low ball point per night rate or changes to the DVC model needed. Huge profit to be had just for digging an over sized ditch and building a boat dock.

IF all of that happens I would be on board and I would think you're right. However, the problem I see with this is you're removing 2400 guest rooms from the moderate pool of rooms and I don't see THAT happening.

 

[LaidBackDad]

I spent thousands of hours at Caribbean...not joking...

You're so off on this...Caribbean is not a "deluxe" location... Coronado is about as close to animal kingdom...is that deluxe?

It's more than just looking at it on google earth...this idea to just "link it" to the back of Epcot is silly. It's landlocked and it takes forever to get out of the place due to layout.

You could say that they could build a new dvc at a spot that makes it a better location...relatively. But Caribbean is not a "deluxe" location.

This may be a case of not seeing the forest because of all the trees for you. CBR is just as close to Epcot and DHS as BW and BC/YC. You're saying CRB can't be deluxe because it doesn't have easy access to the parks. That certainly isn't an insurmountable obstacle and actually quite an easy fix in the case of CBR.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

IF all of that happens I would be on board and I would think you're right. However, the problem I see with this is you're removing 2400 guest rooms from the moderate pool of rooms and I don't see THAT happening.

Exactly...Disney's problem...and the reason we see mass dvc conversion like contemporary, ak, Polynesian and wilderness lodge...is because they haven't been able to sell the high priced rooms. Not the moderates.

That is the problem. So reducing the moderate pool isn't a high priority like deluxe has been (hidden in plain site)

Repurposing to a higher priced "moderate" that they know has a market would be a better move. My opinion.

 

[LaidBackDad]

IF all of that happens I would be on board and I would think you're right. However, the problem I see with this is you're removing 2400 guest rooms from the moderate pool of rooms and I don't see THAT happening.

Not at all, those 2400 rooms remain exactly the same. They just cost more. Instead of of being one of the lower priced options for a moderate resort they become more popular because of the better access to the parks created by the DVC expansion and new direct access.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

This may be a case of not seeing the forest because of all the trees for you. CRB is just as close to Epcot and DHS as BW and BC/YC. You're saying CRB can't be deluxe because it doesn't have easy access to the parks. That certainly isn't an insurmountable obstacle and actually quite an easy fix in the case of CBR.

I might be speaking Greek here...

There is no argument to be made that Caribbean is "as close" to Epcot or studios as Boardwalk or yacht club. Let alone they have no comparable facilities. It's not even close. The $150 price difference is well worth it as well.

I don't get your angle on this...unless you think disney is interested in MAJOR infrastructure work to victory way, buena vista drive, and the service areas of multiple hotels and parks at high guaranteed longterm operational costs to call Caribbean "deluxe"?

What Disney are we speaking of?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Not at all, those 2400 rooms remain exactly the same. They just cost more. Instead of of being one of the lower priced options for a moderate resort they become more popular because of the better access to the parks created by the DVC expansion and new direct access.

It's 2112...and the plans submitted seem to be indicating they would demolish Barbados...which is 384 rooms lost.

And...to my point...Barbados adds 500 feet of distance - a tenth of a mile - to Epcot from the front gate.

If you're gonna channel or waterway...it would have to connect to the existing lake and be equalized - that's just how Florida works- which means it would have to "hook" around and add cost.

 

[LaidBackDad]

I might be speaking Greek here...

There is no argument to be made that Caribbean is "as close" to Epcot or studios as Boardwalk or yacht club. Let alone they have no comparable facilities. It's not even close. The $150 price difference is well worth it as well.

I don't get your angle on this...unless you think disney is interested in MAJOR infrastructure work to victory way, buena vista drive, and the service areas of multiple hotels and parks at high guaranteed longterm operational costs to call Caribbean "deluxe"?

What Disney are we speaking of?

Believe it or not, that's what we are looking at with these permits. Building this kind of tower obviously requires some of those changes anyways. It's already happening. Most of the other areas of your concern are already in place with the current resort. I'm not even saying I love the idea of CBR DVC. I'm just saying why CBR was chosen and why it will be very popular.

 

[sachilles]

I just don't see adding canal to service ONE resort. I don't see the economy of it even if it turned the CBR into a super deluxe.

One thing I did see as a concept, that I'd like to think would be up disney's alley, at least in the old days. The city of Portland has a commuting issue. They have proposed a parking structure on either side of a water way. It will be connected with a water slide in both directions. Commuters will basically ride in a flume ride vessel from the top of one parking structure to the bottom of the other on the other side. I'm trying to find the link on the concept. That seems very disney in concept, could be cost practical, and you have a tower already in the mix.

I think if any traditional canal is done it will have to be a spur at Buena vista drive, and then serve CBR, maybe AOA, maybe typhoon lagoon and Disney springs. It would be cool if the transport was moving water based, rather than a boat moving on water.(Dream world I know).

 

[sachilles]

This is the water transport idea I was referencing. https://www.pdxmonthly.com/articles...azy-mass-transportation-idea-you-ve-ever-seen

 

[zemra406]

This may be a case of not seeing the forest because of all the trees for you. CBR is just as close to Epcot and DHS as BW and BC/YC. You're saying CRB can't be deluxe because it doesn't have easy access to the parks. That certainly isn't an insurmountable obstacle and actually quite an easy fix in the case of CBR.

Agree if they want to make it work they can. Maybe they could route the parking lot trams from DHS through the woods to victory way. Would take 10 minutes round trip tops. Much faster than the bus and uses existing transportation options.

 

[nkosiek]

Really? You've never experienced high winds when using the outside concourse to cross from BLT to CR and vice versa?

Nothing that I ever felt was dangerous, no. When the storm was rolling through last year and I crossed over to eat, yeah, the winds were stiff but nothing that I wouldn't have expected nor would feel out of place.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Believe it or not, that's what we are looking at with these permits. Building this kind of tower obviously requires some of those changes anyways. It's already happening. Most of the other areas of your concern are already in place with the current resort. I'm not even saying I love the idea of CBR DVC. I'm just saying why CBR was chosen and why it will be very popular.

I don't trust that they're willing to try to spend that kind of cash. It would require an incredible investment for a "dvc tower"...there's a lot of money in dvc...not that much.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Agree if they want to make it work they can. Maybe they could route the parking lot trams from DHS through the woods to victory way. Would take 10 minutes round trip tops. Much faster than the bus and uses existing transportation options.

So I like idea...

So do they run the Star Wars express just to the dvc? Or do you build a little hub so pop, AoA, and the old Caribbean can ride?

 

[mab2012]

You're talking about a second dvc pool.

If the longstanding members have to jostle with "moderate" points to book beach club, Boardwalk, the contemporary...then they will get frustrared and dump their point to resale or rent.

The problem with that...is that those owners are the ones that have spent the most are still likely to spend the most going forward.

Disney likes to act "next man up"...but they know better. They have to dance a fine line between not alienating the core and drawing the new gullible in...

It's like snake charming...don't get bit.

No, I am not talking about a second pool. Or not one that is explicitly distinguished as such, anyway.

You are assuming that the net balance will be out of the moderate and into the deluxe. I am suggesting that the opposite is just as likely, if not moreso. Having a moderate option could actually take some of the pressure off of the lower cost deluxe categories. Maybe. Like I said, I don't think the direction of the shift in balance (if there is one) is obvious.