I'm very interested to see how this goes as is everyone else I'm sure. I am also very glad we aren't there until the end of October so we have time to learn the system prior.
Even more interesting is the crowds lately have been lower than predicted at least according to Touring Plans.
For example, the past week:
July 23 Predicted 7, observed 5
July 22 Predicted 6, observed 5
July 21 Predicted 5, observed 3
July 20 Predicted 5, observed 3
July 19 Predicted 6, observed 4
July 18 Predicted 6, observed 4
July 17 Predicted 6, observed 5
July 16 Predicted 6, observed 4
I know TP usually seems to predict a bit on the higher side, but if the observed crowds the past week are correct then it's showing a bit lesser crowds.
If rides are showing no availability and going fast, then I can't imagine with observed crowds at 7+
It's also possible that Disney is managing LL inventory differently, for various reasons.
If we knew for sure that Disney allocated 70% of estimated ride capacity to LLs, and that they made all of that capacity available at earliest booking, and that they did so consistently between FP+, G+, and LLMP, then we could get a good sense of demand. But in reality, Disney can pull levers that
wildly impact availability, and we have no transparency into that process.
Maybe LL capacity is untouched, in which case Tier 1 rides selling out quickly would reflect an increase in demand. (Tier 2 sellout is more complicated. Between the ability to book multiple passes at once and the removal of character experiences, demand for Tier 2 attractions will be higher in LLMP than in G+. But guests can pre-book at most one Tier 1 attraction, just like they could book only one attraction total under G+. Even assuming every G+ buyer used their first pass on a 'Tier 1' ride, faster sellout times implies higher uptake,
assuming equal distribution of capacity.)
But it's also possible that they are allocating less capacity to LLs, or at least holding back more capacity in reserve to drip out throughout the day. I've seen times pop up for Big Thunder and Space Mountain off and on. That could just be people adjusting plans, or it could be sporadic drops.
Looking at sellout times on thrill-data, today is selling out
shockingly earlier than recent
Genie+ averages. Haunted Mansion went from an average 8:16PM sellout to 7:58AM! (I'm not sure if that's Eastern Time or if the website is converting to my central time zone, but either way that's
before park opening.) That implies a MASSIVE spike in usage, or else a big reduction in start-of-day capacity allocation. Given pretty average wait times at the park today, and already-high rates of Genie+ adoption, it's really difficult to imagine how that is possible unless (a) it's a blip as hordes of guests try out the new system, and/or (b) Disney is sharply reducing LL capacity in order to either allocate more to Standby, or to drip more throughout the day.
This could all be wishful thinking on my part, but it'll be interesting to see the data as it materializes over time.