laceemouse,
You'll have to do your own cyphering to figure it out - too many variables:
Can you do the one trip a "year" but space them 11 1/2 months out to get the benefit of an AP (break even point something like eight park days)?
Are you the type of person to hang onto hoppers - they don't expire, but you do have to bring them along and not loose them (I'm horrible, I'd be misplacing them the moment I returned from my trip)
Are you a "parks every day person." If you aren't, you can get a better deal than the discount on the UPH.
Are you willing to work through an internet broker, or do you want to buy your tickets directly through Disney?
Are the extra's valuable to you? Some brokers offer deals like rounds of mini golf or character breakfasts. If they have value to you, you'll want to figure that in. If they don't than don't. Don't forget to figure in any shipping and handling charges with the brokers.
How price sensitive are you? Will $10 a ticket make a difference in your vacation budget, or is it not worth any additional hassle?
Visit the budget board, the people over there are experts at getting the best ticket deal.
For us, the UPHs make some sense - at least for the next trip. We could do better with an internet broker, but by the time I factor in my hassle, and the high probablility I'll misplace the tickets between trips, I'll just pick up UPHs at check in. But I'll be the first to admit that this is not a good choice for every DVCer.