Pandemic?

["Got Disney"]

Well...I'm a "soft surface" so I should be okay!

lets here it for being soft

Thanks Mommy RN, that was an interesting model.

The only problem is that all models rely upon the data being supplied into the logarithms for accuracy. If the CDC itself has stated that their number values are flawed because of their inability to keep up with demand how can any assumptions made based upon that data be at all reliable? If 2 separate research teams reached the same conclusions one can assume the logarithms harnessed are reasonable... but the fact remains that both are relying upon the same raw data which is incomplete and as a result they could still produce flawed conclusions.

If the original permutations are not appropriate all else that follows should be met with suspicion.

I agree ...and also Florida has no confirmed cases yet so how does he get that Florida will be the worse struck with Ca. and Texas by the end of may. I can see Texas and Ca. but Florida The fact is they really dont know yet. But glad they are getting ready for this again by Sept.

I am editing this: just saw on TV that 2 cases have been confirmed in Florida this afternoon

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[1LuckyMom]

I have a question for the person who has a husband at the CDC. We now have confirmed cases in Illinois, but now I have just read on the Illinois Dept of Health site that they will not be testing for swine flu anyone with mild flu-like symptoms, only those who are severe and hospitalized. How is the CDC going to track people with the illness if only the severe cases are tested? This seems to me to be a way to keep the confirmed numbers lower than they actually are.

 

[honugirl]

There is often some cross over protection in some flu viruses, which explains why those who receive a vaccine that doesn't have all of the components of the flu that emerges do not get as sick. Of course there isn't with this particular virus because it is totally new. DH feels that those who get this current wave could have some immunity if a more virulent strain emerges the fall or next season, because of that. I would imagine that the same is true of an current vaccine being developed. Also, vaccine can be fine tuned as we see what develops in the southern hemisphere over their winter.

Thanks for this Dawn. I'm trying to decide if I'm better off getting it now or later, not that I really want it at all, but I want it in the least innocuous way...

Please, please, don't tell people not to patronize restaurants! business is bad enough, with the economy!

I never said not to patronize restaurants. I was venting. I said MY MOM wouldn't let me out of the house. I have an overprotective mother who has a child who is battling with a rare disease and a compromised immune system. If I had my choice I'd be out doing stuff. There's only so much TV you can watch before you go nuts. Even if it is shows you like....

 

[java]

Our schools are scrubbing away like crazy. At least the school will be clean. My son's high school has also mentioned to stay posted for potential closings next week. (there were 2 local cases of swine flu and I guess that means they have to close in their minds? neither of them were at the high school by the way)

 

[DawnCt1]

How long do you think it could survive? I would imagine it would be in the ballpark of the individual virus' that combined human, avian and swine... but since I don't know how long any of them could survive I've go ideas about this one.

This WOULD be a useful thing for the CDC to release to the public though IMO.

I heard on TV this morning that they survive for 2 hours. That seems too short but maybe they meant in quantities that would cause disease.
The virus itself may survive for 24 hours or longer, but would it be infectious? That's the question that matters. It seems that the contact from hard and soft surfaces have to be transmitted to a mucous membrane because they are unlikely to be aerosolized. I found this article.

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/healthcare/influenzaguidance.html

 

["Got Disney"]

I have a question for the person who has a husband at the CDC. We now have confirmed cases in Illinois, but now I have just read on the Illinois Dept of Health site that they will not be testing for swine flu anyone with mild flu-like symptoms, only those who are severe and hospitalized. How is the CDC going to track people with the illness if only the severe cases are tested? This seems to me to be a way to keep the confirmed numbers lower than they actually are.

I heard on the news just now that health officials say that new cases of suspected swine flu are coming in faster than they can be tested. Maybe that is why. They are being inundated.

 

[xPrincessSmilesx]

Just wondered what the situation in the US was now with confirmed/suspectd cases.

Only 13 in the UK currently (2 having caught it in the UK) and 640 suspected!

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[DawnCt1]

Thanks Dawn, that is extremely helpful. It tells me that without doing anything at all, a majority of virus would probably die off quickly if left undisturbed over night, as in while the parks etc are closed. So the likelihood of infectious material building up over time is pretty low, and that sounds like a plus to me.

Also, I just saw this which is also making me hopeful that we can safely salvage our trip.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iabswr9O9-fV1ggfBiCXqKeCZPQQD97TK6600
CDC: New virus lacks genes of 1918 killer flu

By MIKE STOBBE – 1 hour ago

ATLANTA (AP) — The new swine flu virus lacks genes that made the 1918 pandemic strain so deadly, a U.S. health official said Friday.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the new virus is "a very unusual" four-way combination of human genes and genes from swine viruses found in North America, Asia and Europe.

CDC flu chief Dr. Nancy Cox said the good news is "we do not see the markers for virulence that were seen in the 1918 virus."

"However we know that there is a great deal that we do not understand about the virulence of the 1918 virus or other influenza viruses," that caused serious illnesses, she said. "So we are continuing to learn."

Another CDC official, Dr. Anne Schuchat, said preliminary studies suggest that in U.S. households with an infected person, about a quarter of other family members are getting sick as well. That's consistent with what happens with seasonal flu, she said.

Cox noted the CDC has entered the gene information for the new virus into databases that are publicly available.

"A lot of researchers around the world can begin to look at those gene sequences as well, in case they see something we haven't already seen," Cox added.

The global flu epidemic early last century was possibly the deadliest outbreak of all time. The virus was an H1N1 strain — different from the H1N1 strain involved in the current outbreak — and struck mostly healthy young adults. Experts estimate it killed about 40 to 50 million people worldwide.
On the Net:

* CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

It would be wonderful if you could go. I wouldn't cancel at this point.

 

[1LuckyMom]

[QUOTE="Got Disney";31617471]I heard on the news just now that health officials say that new cases of suspected swine flu are coming in faster than they can be tested. Maybe that is why. They are being inundated.[/QUOTE]

That is understandable, but if you just stop testing the milder cases how do you track the disease?...how to you determine if schools should close or other proactive steps should be taken?

 

[bgirldeb]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/health/article997232.ece

TALLAHASSEE — Gov. Charlie Crist this afternoon confirmed Florida's first two cases of swine flu, both in children.

One is an 11-year-old boy from Lee County, who attends Spring Creek Elementary School. The other is a 17-year-old girl in Broward County, who attends Hallandale High School.

The two were among eight possible cases of swine flu that were referred to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta for testing.

Dr. Ana M. Viamonte Ros said Friday the cases included three reported Thursday and five others. The suspected cases were in Pinellas, Alachua, Orange, Lee, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

State officials send samples to the CDC for testing when their own tests cannot match them to a known virus. The referrals simply mean it's possible the cases could be swine flu, not that swine flu is suspected.

The Pinellas case involves an adult male who recently traveled to Mexico. The man didn't require hospitalization, and he is resting at home, said Jeannine Mallory, spokeswoman for the Pinellas County Health Department, in a news release.

State health officials have set up a hot line where citizens can call for more information and learn about acquiring masks and antiviral medication. The toll free number is 1-800-775-8039.

 

[DawnCt1]

That is understandable, but if you just stop testing the milder cases how do you track the disease?...how to you determine if schools should close or other proactive steps should be taken?

The unfortunate thing is, in Ct at least, the Ct. Health Dept. hasn't advocated closing any schools. In fact, just the opposite, but the school supt. and districts are making a political decision that has nothing to do with the facts. I think isn't helpful. Its not the same situation in which during some winters, some schools have had illness rates of 20% absences, between seasonal colds and flu. With that rate of absence, it makes sense to close schools for a week. That originally was the intent of February vacations. But these one day closings because some kid, who hasn't yet returned to school from their Mexican vacation, is dumb.

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

I think that the actual answer may be "unknowable". The uptick in GBS did occur, but did it overshadow the fact that the Swine Flu never really took off as predicted. I thought that this was a good article. It was written long after the event and with some objectivity, and well before this event, with objectivity. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-1007.htm

haven't read it yet, but thank you!!!

 

[D L and K's Mom]

DD was home sick today. Figures he gets a really bad cough and vomiting...no fever. Called Dr. who suggested we get him an x-ray due to his history of pnemonia (last June, Oct, and Feb). DD gets it quick and usually has no fever but does vomit . DD is a special needs little (well, 6 feet tall so not so little, little guy) but he has a very bad immune system and very low muscle tone so he has a hard time coughing productivly. DD said there was no one at the X-Ray lab. I was surprised and happy. I thought there would be a lot of people getting x-rayed for coughs fearing pnemonia with the Swine panic.Lady at the lab said, "nope". Is pnemonia a part of this Swine Flu? Oh, DD is fine, lots of gunk but no infections!

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

Yes.....But of those 36,000 deaths, many are from the strains covered by the annual flu shot.....They're just victims who failed to get the flu shot. So MILLIONS of Americans didn't contract the flu in the first place because the immunization protected them. Meaning, millions and millions of Americans were are minimal risk (due to the vaccine) of ever even falling into that group of 36,000. Almost all that 36,000 consists of people who received no flu shot.

This swine flu has no vaccine, so all those vaccinated millions we normally factor out every year as being "safe" and at virtually no risk of dying can no longer be factored out. The "at risk" pool for contracting this flu has just gone up by millions, in the US alone. Then you take whatever percentage of unvaccinated people normally die from the flu they contract and I think the numbers have the potential to be MUCH higher than 36,000. It all depends on just how nasty this strain turns out to be. The lack of vaccine is key. Right now, we're sitting ducks.....We just don't know what's taking aim at us. A bullet or a foam dart?

the "seasonal flu" that attacks the old, very young and ill. Those numbers are by far made up of the elderly for whom flu vacines are proving less effective than believed at keeping deaths down, the very young who can not be immunized and are at risk for additional reasons, and those who are already ill/immune compromised (some of whom, of course, may not be able to be immunized). Those numbers are NOT made up of young and otherwise healthy people who "fail" to get immunized. Many may carry immuntiy to seasonal flu because they had/were exposed to flu without immunization - this "natural" immunity is also lacking in the case of swine obviously.

That more people in the target group (young and healthy) for swine in the past are at risk because they will be left open to catching the flu due to lack of immunity/vaccine is true.

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

here is an article I found on MSN:

covers testing, numbers, closing schools. Seems even once states start testing they have no intention of testing all or keeping counts:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30471035

 

["Got Disney"]

I find closing a school when 1 or 2 students are sick is silly at this point. They dont do that with the seasonal flu yet 100 people a day die every year from it. Over 200,000 are hospitalized.

I get that they are still trying to figure out this bug but seems to me that as they have said....no need to close the boarders because it is already here, the word containment means nothing to me at this point if the boarders are still open. And yet what 300 schools have closed there doors seems like an oxymoron if ya ask me.

I hope they dont close either of my boys schools unless there are so many teachers out sick that they have no choice....or they prove that this bug is getting worse or mutating.

Maybe I feel like this after being a Nurse for 28 years...I dont know. But until they show me that we are in a true danger unlike the seasonal flu, I say keep the kids in school.

 

["Got Disney"]

the "seasonal flu" that attacks the old, very young and ill. Those numbers are by far made up of the elderly for whom flu vacines are proving less effective than believed at keeping deaths down, the very young who can not be immunized and are at risk for additional reasons, and those who are already ill/immune compromised (some of whom, of course, may not be able to be immunized). Those numbers are NOT made up of young and otherwise healthy people who "fail" to get immunized. Many may carry immuntiy to seasonal flu because they had/were exposed to flu without immunization - this "natural" immunity is also lacking in the case of swine obviously.

That more people in the target group (young and healthy) for swine in the past are at risk because they will be left open to catching the flu due to lack of immunity/vaccine is true.

I have to disagree with this just a little but not much...

The elderly like the young are much more prone to pneumonia which with the flu tends to cause most of the flu related hospitaliations and death and dont recover as easy from it. The flu is a upper respiratory virus. Inhibiting their breathing. They dehydrate much easier from fever and the elderly for the most part do not drink many fluids.

As for immunity to the seasonal flu...there are many many many different flu's each season that go around at the same time. The flu shot covers only what is thought will be the worse virus not all of them. So you can still get a seasonal flu.

The flu shot also does not mean that you will not get the flu that it is meant to keep away..you can still get it but the severity of it will be less and shortened.

many also confuse the flu with the stomach bug known as viral gastroenteritis. The seasonal flu is not in your stomach it is respiratory. Coughing, fever, sneezing, wheezing, aches pains, coughing up junk. It can have nausea from it but that is caused for the most part from the thick mucous being swallowed and not spit up and out. The Swine flu is also a respiratory bug.

The Swine bug has 3 components within it. One of which is human. Yes it sounds alien because it is....but they have aid that their could be some immunity to it due to the human component but they are still not sure. But they are sure that there is no immunity to the other 2 components.

I find it to be an interesting bug. But that's the nurse in me...the mom in me wants it to just go away.....

 

[Kirby]

Our schools have not sent home any information....yet.
I hope the teachers are encouraging hand washing and have antibacterial gel avaialbe (we parents should each pitch in and buy some for the class). Kids do need to be reminded a lot. Some kids don't learn this at home. Or they forget.

I guess we're lucky then. I not only got an e-mail from the district, I received and e-mail from my daughter's band director, information in a school e-letter and a letter in the mail all concerning precautions we should take and how seriously the district is taking this flu.