Pandemic?

[MelanieC]

My kids are staying home today - BUT they were already off. It is a non-instructional day.

 

[ktbug103]

What happened was that when they collected all the data from that period they found that an unusual number of casualties happened to fall into a particular demographic that is traditionally strong. So of course people wondered why, after the fact. The theory that it had something to do with immunity is just that, a theory. As we all know theories can be wrong. The truth is impossible to know because the particular virus from the 1918 incident died out and is therefore impossible to study. That is why I presented my idea as reasonable, not fact... but then again the scientists themselves do not have a fact to present either so any reasonable idea should be considered valid.

The reason why I bring up HIV is because it is our planets most recent pandemic AND because all sorts of unreasonable conclusions were drawn regarding that particular diseases epidemiology based upon face value.

My point is that the world we live in today is very different than the world humans inhabited 90 years ago and we should be cautious when drawing conclusions from correlations that may be nothing more than correlations.

There are samples from 1918 that scientists have studied. One reason many healthy people died from that flu strain was because of cytokine storms, a healthy immune system works against you. It's very interesting although scary.

 

[tinkryansmom]

I'm watching - this is kinda scary. We are to travel to Imperial County, California this weekend for a wedding....

Thinking perhaps the bride will go without one 9 year old to pass out her wedding programs...

 

[justjulie]

The World Health Organization just released an update - 40 confirmed cases in the US

 

[AmazingGrace]

I can relate. My son is 10 and has been in the hospital 3 three times with pneumonia. He has asthma and getting the flu, or just a cold, wipes him out completely. He simply can't fight it.

So, we had a nice long talk about this new flu. He knows what precautions to take at school. But, he's just a kid, he forgets.

Those school closings in Schertz are about an hour and a half away from us. Too close for comfort!!

On another note, My sis lives in Mexico and says there are no cases reported in her state. Hopefully, they are keeping it contained and it won't effect her and family.

yeah, we're in Selma, right on the Guadalupe County line. I'm just waiting for my kids' schools to close. Knowing the district, they'll stay iopen long enough for the TAKS test, then close.

 

[TimothyQMouse]

You are being kind of harsh. Why?

Harsh? I don't mean to be. I just think that people are overreacting. There are people talking about cancelling trips, taking kids out of school, and even threats to our water supply. I'm not saying that the CDC and WHO don't need to stay on top of this and that it is a serious issue. I'm just saying that it is nowhere near the threat people are making it out to be.

I'm always baffled by people's inability to put risks into perspective. People get weak in the knees about tiny radiation leaks but think nothing of living in Denver. They get terrified about terrorist attacks but don't take basic safety precautions while driving (wearing seatbelts, not engaging in other activities like talking on the phone, helping kids in the back seat, etc). Yet 10 times as many people died in car accidents in the US in 2001 than from terrorist attacks. For some reason, people like to get all worked up about minor threats and ignore the major risks in their lives. In the US today, you are far, far more likely to die from a car accident, heart disease, or cancer than you are from the things people get excited about.

Every now and then a serious problem turns out to be true. Lot's of people really have died from AIDS. Not nearly as many as the early estimates from fear mongers, but the number of US deaths is still north of 500,000. I'm not saying that people should ignore this stuff. Just take the normal precautions that you normally would, live your life, and keep things in perspective.

In the mean time, learn from the scares over nuclear war the Russians, Y2K, global starvation, the Rapture, a communist takeover, terrorism, a fascist takeover, nuclear plant meltdowns, Alar, etc, etc. Despite the prognostication of the hyterical (who always get lots of TV coverage), the world and the people on it are pretty durable.

 

[java]

20 additional suspected at St. Francis prep in Queens- taking that total up to 28 at that one school- which is closed today and will be closed tomorrow for "clean up"

 

[DawnCt1]

20 additional suspected at St. Francis prep in Queens- taking that total up to 28 at that one school- which is closed today and will be closed tomorrow for "clean up"

DH left for work early this morning, but I heard him say, when he was being interviewed on the radio this morning, that there were now 40 cases in the US.

 

[twinklebug]

DH left for work early this morning, but I heard him say, when he was being interviewed on the radio this morning, that there were now 40 cases in the US.

The CDC is a little slow updating their website, probably because they want to be positive of the findings before posting anything, but you can find the breakdown by state here: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/index.htm

 

[ckay87]

I remember having this same conversation on this same message board not too long ago about the bird flu. How is this different? I'm not being snarky, I would like to know how this flu is different from that one. In short, why should we be scared? In fact, why should we be more scared of this flu than of the regular flu? Is it because of the unknown? Is it more highly contagious? More deadly somehow? I have yet to see anything that indicates...to me...that I should be more scared of this than of any of the other things that could harm me today.

Please note, again, that I am not intending to be nasty. Just looking for info.

 

[FergieTCat]

I remember having this same conversation on this same message board not too long ago about the bird flu. How is this different? I'm not being snarky, I would like to know how this flu is different from that one. In short, why should we be scared? In fact, why should we be more scared of this flu than of the regular flu? Is it because of the unknown? Is it more highly contagious? More deadly somehow? I have yet to see anything that indicates...to me...that I should be more scared of this than of any of the other things that could harm me today.

Please note, again, that I am not intending to be nasty. Just looking for info.

Personally, I'm worried because Fresh Meadows is literally down the road from me. I would prefer not to get the flu, thank you very much. I usually get the vaccination every fall, and from what I understand, this strain is not "covered."

 

[java]

I remember having this same conversation on this same message board not too long ago about the bird flu. How is this different? I'm not being snarky, I would like to know how this flu is different from that one. In short, why should we be scared? In fact, why should we be more scared of this flu than of the regular flu? Is it because of the unknown? Is it more highly contagious? More deadly somehow? I have yet to see anything that indicates...to me...that I should be more scared of this than of any of the other things that could harm me today.

Please note, again, that I am not intending to be nasty. Just looking for info.

Because people contacted the disease from a people to people situation- as opposed to playing with dead birds. A situation that is more likely to impact a wider range of people.

I also don't recall cases of Bird Flu in the us as quickly as Swine flu is appearing.
I'm not saying to freak out. Just be aware and wash your hands. What you should be doing anyway.

 

[DawnCt1]

Because people contacted the disease from a people to people situation- as opposed to playing with dead birds. A situation that is more likely to impact a wider range of people.

I also don't recall cases of Bird Flu in the us as quickly as Swine flu is appearing.
I'm not saying to freak out. Just be aware and wash your hands. What you should be doing anyway.

And also, this isn't just swine flu but has bird flu DNA segments, swine flu segments and human flu segments. People have also become infected by unknown persons. If I got it from having dinner at your house and you had it, the method of transmission would be obvious. But if I had no contact with any known person who had it, it makes it more difficult to track and suggests that it may be more wide spread than is evident now.

 

[ckay87]

Thanks guys. I'm wondering...is this flu considered more deadly than the regular flu? Because as much as the regular flu stinks, many of us don't have to worry about dying from it. Does a healthy family need to fear for their lives here?

Obviously not looking for a free pass to write the whole thing off. We try to stay as healthy as possible. But again, I'm looking for differences between this flu and the regular flu.

 

[Tantor]

Thanks Dawn for keeping us updated.

I sat my DD down yesterday and kind of put the fear of god into her. (okay I over did it but it worked) I figured I may as well use this flu thing to my advantage!!!

I told her that she needed to eat properly to keep up her immune system and that she should make sure she washes her hands and face.

 

[AlexWyattMommy]

 

[Pooh's Pixie]

Harsh? I don't mean to be. I just think that people are overreacting. There are people talking about cancelling trips, taking kids out of school, and even threats to our water supply. I'm not saying that the CDC and WHO don't need to stay on top of this and that it is a serious issue. I'm just saying that it is nowhere near the threat people are making it out to be.

I'm always baffled by people's inability to put risks into perspective. People get weak in the knees about tiny radiation leaks but think nothing of living in Denver. They get terrified about terrorist attacks but don't take basic safety precautions while driving (wearing seatbelts, not engaging in other activities like talking on the phone, helping kids in the back seat, etc). Yet 10 times as many people died in car accidents in the US in 2001 than from terrorist attacks. For some reason, people like to get all worked up about minor threats and ignore the major risks in their lives. In the US today, you are far, far more likely to die from a car accident, heart disease, or cancer than you are from the things people get excited about.

Every now and then a serious problem turns out to be true. Lot's of people really have died from AIDS. Not nearly as many as the early estimates from fear mongers, but the number of US deaths is still north of 500,000. I'm not saying that people should ignore this stuff. Just take the normal precautions that you normally would, live your life, and keep things in perspective.

In the mean time, learn from the scares over nuclear war the Russians, Y2K, global starvation, the Rapture, a communist takeover, terrorism, a fascist takeover, nuclear plant meltdowns, Alar, etc, etc. Despite the prognostication of the hyterical (who always get lots of TV coverage), the world and the people on it are pretty durable.

You are right. I agree that people don't know how to keep risk in perspective. Read Freakonomics. You will like it. It talks about this phenomonen. And in general, people perceive risk based on their experience and ability to control. Many people are afraid to fly, because they not in control. More people die in car accidents, but people don't perceive that as risky because they are "in control." Same thing with Swine Flu. it is something "new", therefore it is a higher perceived risk. In reality, you are more likely to die from regular old flu (because it effects so many people), but that is not new, so not perceived as scary....

Not making light of the situation, and it IS SCARY, but people need to put the personal fear in perspective...

 

[DawnCt1]

That's a perfect diagram. The pig is the "mixing vessel".

 

[cteddiesgirl]

THis is from what I have in front of me... it's 2 pages double sided so I'll give highlights.

Food:
Have 4 weeks supplies & secure in a rodent controlled place. Make sure you have plenty of bottled water.

Medications:
ALL PRESCRIPTIONS ON HAND

Yeah. I love when they say things like this. I have to take Claritin D every day. Yet, you can only get a 10 day supply every 7-8 days.

BTW, I just read that everything here will be closed for 10 days. No school, no movie theaters, no soccer games, no discos or bars (at least this one doesn't affect me), no church services, no basketball practice for my son, no gymnastics classes for my daughter, no public gatherings of any kind for the next 10 days.
This should be a very interesting time to say the least.

Just make sure to have lots of books, movies, board games and video games on hand.

For everyone with little ones stocking up for power outages. I always include some of those light up bracelets or necklaces. They make great night lights. Target has them in the dollar spot right now.

Get some glowsticks. They can be pretty cheap and give off a surprising amount of light for quite a while.

And also, this isn't just swine flu but has bird flu DNA segments, swine flu segments and human flu segments. People have also become infected by unknown persons. If I got it from having dinner at your house and you had it, the method of transmission would be obvious. But if I had no contact with any known person who had it, it makes it more difficult to track and suggests that it may be more wide spread than is evident now.

It could even be where some could be carriers, never know it and never actually get sick. But they pass it on to others who do become sick.

Who really knows yet.

But, I'm not panicking on this yet. I also never panicked on any of the other possible pandemics.

 

[AlexWyattMommy]

That's a perfect diagram. The pig is the "mixing vessel".

Thanks. I borrowed it from the flu site. I am also now the proud owner of a well-stocked pantry.