Over 3,500 people quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise

[QueenElinor]

I believe they are only extending quarantine for cabin mates of those who tested positive. A new 14 days from last contact.

I hope that's the case. However, if they don't know how the cabin mate got the virus that doesn't make sense. It only makes sense if they can trace the contacts of the infected cabin mate and know how that person was exposed. Pretending this is direct person-to-person transmission doesn't make it true- although that's what they been doing for weeks. They're using an old playbook and getting sacked. So we'll see.

 

[QueenElinor]

I just found out that the people aboard the Diamond Princess were given n95 masks to wear when they're out of the cabin (every 2-3 days for an hour is what they're allowed) or if they are accepting deliveries, e.g. food. I'm not sure what that means, except that the public health people are not certain how the infection is being transmitted, so they're doing everything they can think of to shut it down. That's good.

And the chief Japanese quarantine officer for the ship tested positive. What a mess- prayers for everyone involved.

 

[StarGirl11]

I just found out that the people aboard the Diamond Princess were given n95 masks to wear when they're out of the cabin (every 2-3 days for an hour is what they're allowed) or if they are accepting deliveries, e.g. food. I'm not sure what that means, except that the public health people are not certain how the infection is being transmitted, so they're doing everything they can think of to shut it down. That's good.

And the chief Japanese quarantine officer for the ship tested positive. What a mess- prayers for everyone involved.

NG95 Masks are the type that is recommended to most people who are immunocompromised in my experience with friends and family with crap systems. They're the ones that actually do the best job as a mask when compared to the regular mask. I know when my Mom went through chemo my parents were told to pick up one of them (you can get them a variety of places, I think we got hers from Home Depot), while she was undergoing all of her treatment. For a quick reference, this is what a traditional N95 looks like (note they usually look nothing like the traditional surgical masks):

N95 Mask Example

Though they, like a lot of medical stuff, can come in some nice varieties. Hello Kitty, Disney, etc. Just because the butt ugly ones are the easiest to find it doesn't mean they are the only ones out there that do their jobs.

But in this case the masks are certainly more along the lines of the one I linked.

Basically their the best at filtering at particulates. More so than the traditional ones. It makes sense with so little known about Convid that they would go for the strongest type of mask out there for everyones sake.

 

[Starwind]

CBC News (Canadian national broadcaster) interview : "
Rebecca Frasure of Forest Grove, Ore., tested positive for the novel coronavirus after two weeks aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, currently moored off Yokohama, Japan. She was removed from the ship Friday and taken to hospital in Tokyo.

To read more: http://cbc.ca/1.5459237 "

 

[mousefan73]

At this point are they just waiting for everyone on the diamond to get sick. What Idiot thought keeping all on board would not spread the virus like wild fire? I can’t see anyone getting off soon

 

[jalapeno_pretzel]

Yesterday I listened to a US citizen on the ship give an interview. He said so far all those who have come down sick can be easily traced to contact with the original people who were sick before the quarantine was started. He said it will be much more telling in a week or so as they approach the end of the 14 day incubation window ... if the cases drop off and new cases can still be traced back to contact with infected people vs. if new cases with no contact start appearing.

I don't think you can point to the quarantine not working ... yet. Some of the people who had contact with the people who were sick prior to the quarantine are undoubtedly going to get sick, and that's what is happening now.

 

[isabellea]

NG95 Masks are the type that is recommended to most people who are immunocompromised in my experience with friends and family with crap systems. They're the ones that actually do the best job as a mask when compared to the regular mask. I know when my Mom went through chemo my parents were told to pick up one of them (you can get them a variety of places, I think we got hers from Home Depot), while she was undergoing all of her treatment. For a quick reference, this is what a traditional N95 looks like (note they usually look nothing like the traditional surgical masks):

N95 Mask Example

Though they, like a lot of medical stuff, can come in some nice varieties. Hello Kitty, Disney, etc. Just because the butt ugly ones are the easiest to find it doesn't mean they are the only ones out there that do their jobs.

But in this case the masks are certainly more along the lines of the one I linked.

Basically their the best at filtering at particulates. More so than the traditional ones. It makes sense with so little known about Convid that they would go for the strongest type of mask out there for everyones sake.

N95 masks are effective ONLY if they have been fit-tested. If you don’t have a good fit (men with a beard for exemple) they are useless.

 

[Gentry2004]

Most likely all of these new people were exposed before the ship was quarantined. The incubation period is long - at least 14 days and maybe longer. They have not been exposed recently, they were exposed before the quarantine. If more people get sick today, it doesn’t mean the virus is “spreading” - it means they were already exposed.

 

[Silvermist999]

If that’s the case, then the first group of Americans from Wuhan who were released after the 14 days quarantine, should have been monitored longer instead of being released so quickly.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

If that’s the case, then the first group of Americans from Wuhan who were released after the 14 days quarantine, should have been monitored longer instead of being released so quickly.

Well as mentioned before a recent study has showed an incubation of 24 days not 14...

 

[Gentry2004]

If that’s the case, then the first group of Americans from Wuhan who were released after the 14 days quarantine, should have been monitored longer instead of being released so quickly.

Probably so, but they are not certain yet. 14 days is still the “official” incubation period but I expect it to rise.

 

[MarkLT1]

I'd trust the studies on incubation for those outside of China, much more than those from within China. In this case, not because of distrust of the Chinese numbers, but rather due to a lack of statistical controls. If you believe (as I do) that the numbers of infected from China are being grossly underreported, at this point it becomes exceedingly difficult to determine exactly when an infected individual was exposed. Especially in scenarios where people are fearful of quarantine, the government, etc.. Something like:

Doctor: "Were you knowingly in contact with someone who has the virus in the last 14 days?"
Patient: "Absolutely not. Joe down the hall has it, but the last time I had contact with him was over 3-weeks ago, before we knew about all this stuff!"

There are several papers out now looking at travelers, who had defined exposure windows, and they are finding a median incubation period of around 5-6 days, with a standard deviation of around 2 days. In other words, if you are infected, there is greater than a 99% chance that you'll show symptoms in the first 14-15 days. With those models, there is a possibility that an individual could take 24 days to incubate, but that possibility is essentially negligible.

 

[QueenElinor]

Yesterday I listened to a US citizen on the ship give an interview. He said so far all those who have come down sick can be easily traced to contact with the original people who were sick before the quarantine was started. He said it will be much more telling in a week or so as they approach the end of the 14 day incubation window ... if the cases drop off and new cases can still be traced back to contact with infected people vs. if new cases with no contact start appearing.

I don't think you can point to the quarantine not working ... yet. Some of the people who had contact with the people who were sick prior to the quarantine are undoubtedly going to get sick, and that's what is happening now.

I don't know about that. Unless the authorities are not being forthcoming, the index case was just one 80 y.o. guy who got off the ship on the 25th. He would have to be the Typhoid Mary of cruise ships too have infected this many people through person-to-person contact. And, the 14d window for people who were in contact with him (and his family) has passed, days ago. The clock didn't start ticking just when they decided to have a quarantine.

As @MarkLT1 mentioned, the incubation period is short, about 5 days. These reports of long incubations are not from great studies, and haven't been confirmed. Studies early in an epidemic often can be wrong. But multiple studies now confirm a short incubation period.

That is why seeing that n95 mask was alarming to me. If they had all the contacts traced, and/or they knew the source, would that be needed? They'd just take care of the source & isolate the contacts. But, that mask sends a different message entirely- it says that transmission is ongoing, and that it may not be direct person-to-person contact.

 

[MarkLT1]

As @MarkLT1 mentioned, the incubation period is short, about 5 days. These reports of long incubations are not from great studies, and haven't been confirmed. Studies early in an epidemic often can be wrong.

I don't think I'd call the incubation period "short". A median incubation period of 5-6 days is 2 to 3 times longer than things like a cold, the flu, etc. It is just much shorter than the "OMG-the-sky-is-falling" 24-day incubation period numbers being thrown around. Other than that small point, I agree with you 100%.

 

[QueenElinor]

I don't think I'd call the incubation period "short". A median incubation period of 5-6 days is 2 to 3 times longer than things like a cold, the flu, etc. It is just much shorter than the "OMG-the-sky-is-falling" 24-day incubation period numbers being thrown around. Other than that small point, I agree with you 100%.

Right, I was just comparing it to the OMG-the-sky-is-falling numbers.

BTW, I asked a quarantined person aboard the Diamond Princess directly about the mask when he/she posted the picture. I guess they don't have anything better to do than talk to random strangers on Twitter.
I would really, really hate to be in their shoes.

 

[Starwind]

The English-language Japanese media Japan Times is reporting:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/13/national/coronavirus-diamond-princess/#.XkTFxCN7mUk
QUOTE

44 more on Diamond Princess cruise ship test positive for COVID-19

The health ministry said Thursday that 44 more people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked off Yokohama have tested positive for COVID-19.

Among them are 29 Japanese and 15 non-Japanese. Forty-three of the new cases were those of passengers, while one case was that of a crew member.

The new cases bring the number of passengers and crew members infected with the virus to 218.

END QUOTE

 

[disneyholic family]

so good news from china on the economic front...at least the chinese companies that my husband deals with..
of the about 10 different factories, one opened yesterday and the others are now scheduled to open on the 17th....which is good, since there's a date..
and better news, all the courier companies have reopened and are in full operation...
So perhaps china has rounded the bend and is coming out the other side.
If so, their draconian efforts may have paid off.
Before they can open, each company has to provide a plan to authorities as to how they plan on controlling for the virus.
Once the plan is approved, they can set a date to open.
.

 

[Starwind]

Princess Cruises has posted additional updates [ https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/ ]:

Second letter from USA CDC to passengers and crew: https://www.princess.com/news/pdfs/cdc-letter-diamond-princess-021220.pdf

Update from Princess about Diamond Princess: https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

 

[disneyholic family]

Princess Cruises has posted additional updates [ https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/ ]:

Second letter from USA CDC to passengers and crew: https://www.princess.com/news/pdfs/cdc-letter-diamond-princess-021220.pdf

Update from Princess about Diamond Princess: https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

very interesting letter from the CDC...
so they're going to slowly start taking passengers off the ship and moving them to a land based quarantine facility...
the description of the quarantine facility doesn't sound like much of an improvement..
.

 

[Starwind]

very interesting letter from the CDC...
so they're going to slowly start taking passengers off the ship and moving them to a land based quarantine facility...
the description of the quarantine facility doesn't sound like much of an improvement..
.

At least one of the passengers I am following who is posting on twitter has said they will prefer to stay on the ship if offered the choice. Among reasons cited was the food.